Weekend Football Picks 2018 (September 1-2)

This was always going to be a busy end to the week so I was convinced I would not be able to get as many of the Football Picks analysed as I would usually.

It is just the way it goes though and I will be back to the full Picks when the Football returns in the Premier League after the international break is completed.


Leicester City v Liverpool Pick: There are a lot of Liverpool fans out there who are beginning to feel more and more confident that their club is going to end a 29 year wait to be called English Champions at the end of this season. The three wins to open the Premier League has built confidence while the three clean sheets shows Liverpool can grind out results if they need to.

To bridge the gap to Manchester City from last season, Liverpool will recognise they have to win games they didn't last season when too many draws held them back. You even had people talking about that following the narrow 1-0 win over Brighton at Anfield last Saturday, but the bottom line is Liverpool have won three fixtures they managed to win last season too.

This is another fixture they won last season, but no one will claim it is an easy test to travel to the King Power Stadium against a Leicester City team who can play up to the level of their opponents. Last season they were beaten by 3 of the top 5 clubs, but only Manchester City won by more than a single goal margin and I do think the home team can cause some problems for Liverpool.

The concern for Leicester City is the absence of Jamie Vardy and the fact they have not defended as well as they would have liked in their last couple of games. Against Liverpool that could be a real problem, especially if Leicester City were to concede early, and I do think the first half is key to the outcome of this one.

Liverpool have not been completely convincing in their wins over Crystal Palace and Brighton and a bit more luck for those teams would have seen them earn a result. While they have begun well, Liverpool have seemingly tired and that is where Leicester City have to stay in this match as long as possible and try and hit Liverpool in the second half.

Leicester City have not created a lot in their last couple of games in the Premier League despite the four goals scored and that does worry me. Without Jamie Vardy I do think they could struggle again and my lean is that Liverpool will be going into the international break with a fourth straight win in the Premier League behind them ahead of a very tough month.

Last season Liverpool won 9 away League games and 6 of those were by margins of two or more goals. This season they have already won by a two goal margin at Selhurst Park and I think Leicester City's lack of real bite in front of goal will let them down here.

I will back Liverpool to cover the Asian Handicap in the win at the King Power Stadium on Saturday lunchtime.


Brighton v Fulham Pick: This looks an interesting early test for both Brighton and Fulham who will have looked at a fixture like this one and felt it is one they should be winning if they want to avoid relegation to the Championship.

Both teams have had a high-scoring win at home in the Premier League, but they have also shared some luck in being able to secure their wins over Manchester United and Burnley respectively.

The lack of a consistent goal threat from Brighton is a real concern especially when you think the side only managed 34 League goals in the whole of the 2017/18 season. They created chances against Manchester United, but they were aided by the terrible defending United produced that day and Brighton have not looked nearly as threatening against Watford or Liverpool.

Both of those games were away from home, but Brighton also lost 0-1 at home to Southampton in the League Cup during the week. That again raises red flags, but Chris Hughton made changes and his team have only lost 1 of their last 8 League games at home.

Fulham might also provide a welcome opposition for Brighton as they have not defended as well as they would have liked. They have given up some good chances to opponents in the Premier League, but the attacking style means they can give a vulnerable Brighton defence some real questions to answer too.

Goals were in short supply in Brighton games in general last season, but both teams managed to score in 7 of the 8 home games they played against teams who finished 12th or lower in the League table. With the way both Brighton and Fulham have begun this season, I would not be surprised if both teams score at least once in this one too.


Chelsea v Bournemouth Pick: The impressive wins put on the board by Chelsea has had the layers scrambling to shorten their prices for this home game with Bournemouth, but I have a feeling they have gone too far.

I have been impressed with the attacking football Chelsea are playing under Maurizio Sarri and I do think we will see some strong seasons from the players who will enjoy this style. However there is still work done to make sure there is some balance in the system and Chelsea have looked vulnerable at the back.

The most obvious example was the number of chances Arsenal created at Stamford Bridge in what was an unfortunate 3-2 defeat. Newcastle United barely wanted to get out of their own half last weekend and they also managed to breach the Chelsea back line and this weekend they are facing a Bournemouth team who have been creating chances for fun to open the season.

I do worry about Bournemouth at the back as Eddie Howe's system leaves them vulnerable, but the chances created and the goals being scored makes them a dangerous opponent for Chelsea here. The Cherries have also enjoyed their League visits to Stamford Bridge having won 2 of their 3 games here since being promoted to the Premier League and I think Bournemouth are being underestimated.

I can't argue against Chelsea being the most likely winners, but Bournemouth are receiving a big start on the Asian Handicap which means a return of half of your stake if they lose by a TWO goal margin. Anything better than that would be a full payout and I am not convinced Chelsea will blow Bournemouth away and win by three or more goals so the pick seems fairly obvious for me here.

Bournemouth are playing well enough to score at Stamford Bridge for a third time in four visits in all competitions and doing that should make it very difficult for Chelsea to cover the spread.


Everton v Huddersfield Town Pick: You have to imagine the layers are factoring in the absence of Richarlison into the Everton prices because I can't imagine why they are not a shorter price to win this fixture.

While there is some work to do from a defensive point of view, I do think the chances Everton have allowed to be created is partly influenced by the long stretches of their games where they have played with ten men. Everton have had a man sent off in the first half at both Wolves and Bournemouth, while I think both of those clubs are much better going forward than what appears to be a toothless Huddersfield Town attack.

Last season Huddersfield Town managed just 28 League goals and they don't look like a team that will be surpassing that number by very many, if at all, this season. 3 defeats in 4 games in all competitions to open the 2018/19 season won't have improved the mood of the players, while Huddersfield Town have a solitary goal to look back upon in that run of games.

On the other hand Everton have scored at least twice in every game played this season including in both home games against Southampton and Rotherham United. Last season they scored twice in both League games against Huddersfield Town and there is enough quality in the forward areas to do without Richarlison for this week.

I expect Everton will dominate the play at home and I think they will prove to be too strong for a Huddersfield Town team who have been struggling. It's not an easy task for Everton to cover the Asian Handicap, but they beat Huddersfield Town by two goal margins in both home and away games in the Premier League last season and I will back the home team to reach that margin again in this one.


West Ham United v Wolves Pick: This is a big game for both West Ham United and Wolves as they search for their first Premier League win of the season having beaten lower League opposition in the League Cup during the week.

It does feel there is more pressure on Manuel Pellegrini rather than Nuno Espirito Santo because of the money West Ham United have spent and the really poor start they have made. Wolves may not have won, but the 1-1 draw with Manchester City will show the fans this is a club on the up.

Both teams will feel they have the attacking talent to create problems for the other and I do think this could be an entertaining game on Saturday. I would be very surprised if both teams didn't score considering the chances they have been able to create and now they are facing opponents who have had defensive issues to say the least.

Picking a winner isn't easy but I would not be surprised to see the game ending 2-1 to either side so the play for me is backing at least three goals to be shared out on Saturday afternoon. Wolves may not have scored against Leicester City, but they had some major chances and were unfortunate in that game, while West Ham United have scored and conceded in 3 straight games in all competitions.

With that in mind I will look for at least three goals to be shared out at the London Stadium in this fixture and that will be my play.


Manchester City v Newcastle United Pick: I think most people will be expecting a reaction from Manchester City after drawing 1-1 at Wolves last Saturday and I would be surprised if Pep Guardiola is not able to get a positive response from his team.

Last season a 1-1 home draw with Everton was followed by a long run of wins which put Manchester City clear of their rivals in the Premier League title race. While it is hard to expect them to do the same this time, I do think Manchester City will bounce back with a positive performance and they should have far too much for Newcastle United.

Rafa Benitez has to be respected as a manager who will organise his team to be hard to beat, but there are some murmurings of discontent at St James' Park with rumours some of the players have turned on their manager. Newcastle United needed a lot of last ditch defending to keep Chelsea from scoring much earlier than they did and playing at Manchester City has been a tough task for them in recent years.

Manchester City have won 9 straight home League games against Newcastle United and the majority of those wins have come by very wide margins. Last season this fixture ended 3-1 to Manchester City and I would be surprised if they didn't reach that margin at least.

If the Newcastle United players have really begun to turn on Benitez it could be even more comfortable for Manchester City and I will look to back the home team to cover the Asian Handicap.

MY PICKS: Liverpool - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Brighton-Fulham Both Teams to Score @ 1.75 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Bournemouth + 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Everton - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
West Ham United-Wolves Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Manchester City - 2.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

August: 15-12, + 3.10 Units (54 Units Staked, + 5.74% Yield)