Thursday it was more of the same in what is turning a positive week into a negative one.
Angelique Kerber had a set and a break lead before losing her match, Caroline Garcia served for the match and the cover and had a number of chances for a double break in the final set but somehow also managed to lose her match.
Both Novak Djokovic and Marin Cilic may still have chances to cover, but the latter has been so much stronger than Karen Khachanov and the only difference has been that Cilic has gone 0/6 on break points over three games while his opponent is 1/1.
That is a killer, but there is still time for 'Lady Luck' to return to my side of things.
The rain looks like really making it very difficult for the tournament organisers to produce the perfect end to the Cincinnati Masters. We are expecting the remaining Third Round matches to be completed on Friday and those winners will be playing their Quarter Final matches later in the evening, but the weather doesn't look that great to be honest and I would be surprised if this event is back on track by the end of the day.
Simona Halep - 3.5 games v Ashleigh Barty: Winning the French Open could be the start of something special for Simona Halep and I do think she is going to go very deep into the US Open tournament especially if she is given the right draw. The World Number 1 won the Montreal Premier Event last week to show she is in good nick on the hard courts and Halep has been good enough to produce top runs in back to back weeks at the Canada/Cincinnati Premier Events.
In each of the last three seasons Halep has reached the Semi Final in both the Canada and Cincinnati Premier Event and all the rain this week will have given her time to recover physically from a tough week in Montreal. The numbers have also been very impressive on the hard courts and some could argue that Halep's consistency on this surface in 2018 makes her the player to beat, especially now she has won her maiden Grand Slam.
The return is what makes Halep particularly dangerous as she keeps the pressure on her opponents and I do think think it will be very difficult for Ashleigh Barty to make this much more competitive than when they played last week in Montreal.
As much as I like the improvements made by Barty, she won just five games in the Semi Final loss to Halep in Montreal and you can see her numbers take a sharp decline when she has faced top 20 Ranked players on the hard courts. The sample size is clearly not going to be the biggest, but it is enough for me to think Barty has perhaps found her ceiling at this moment of her career.
Barty's serve is one that can be attacked by opponents especially of the level of Halep and I do think she will be put under immense pressure throughout this match. Perhaps if it had been played on the same day as Halep completing her Second Round win it would have been closer, but I think the World Number 1 will prove to be a little too well rounded for her Australian opponent.
The Barty numbers on the hard courts slip in terms of points won behind first and second serve and on the return when she has faced top 10 opponents in her career on the hard courts. That is something of a mental block she needs to overcome, but Halep is playing too well to let that happen here and I will back her to move through with some relative comfort.
Petra Kvitova - 3.5 games v Elise Mertens: 2018 has been a positive year for Elise Mertens who has made some moves up the World Ranking, but she hasn't always been able to compete with the very best players on the Tour. The win over Sloane Stephens in the Third Round will give the Belgian some confidence on a surface on which she can be inconsistent, but Mertens knows she may have to be even better when she faces Petra Kvitova.
A 20-8 record and strong numbers on both the serve and the return of serve have to be respected from Mertens, but the win over Stephens was only the second in six matches against top 20 Ranked players. The first serve has not been as effective when she has played the better players on the Tour and Mertens has also not had it quite so comfortable on the return which has made it tough to win those matches.
Kvitova has had two very good wins in the Cincinnati draw, but I am surprised by her poor record in this tournament in recent years. You would think Kvitova would be very happy in the quick conditions you tend to find here, but perhaps 2018 is the year in which she actually backs that feeling up with a good result.
2018 has been a solid year for Kvitova on the hard courts too and she can bounce back from a disappointing showing in Montreal.
It is the return of serve which will be key for Kvitova having improved her numbers on that side of her game compared with 2017. I will admit it can be hard to trust Kvitova the minute you get to some of these bigger spreads as she can be so up and down with her aggressive brand of tennis, but I think she can dictate the points and make Mertens feel uncomfortable and ultimately move through to a Semi Final here.
Madison Keys - 3.5 games v Aryna Sabalenka: One of the most improving players on the Tour has had a strong run in Cincinnati to back up her performance in Montreal and Aryna Sabalenka has to be full of confidence.
It will be tough to keep that run going having needed three sets to edge out Caroline Garcia which means Sabalenka has needed to go the distance in all three matches she has played in the main draw this week.
For a young player I wouldn't be too concerned about the physical fatigue but it must be tough emotionally and now she has to face a big server in Madison Keys who had a big win on Thursday.
Keys used the big serve to great effect in coming back from a set and a break down to beat Wimbledon Champion Angelique Kerber, although I will admit it can be hard to trust the big hitting but inconsistent American.
However the form has looked good this week and you would think Keys will be very comfortable in the conditions on a North American hard court. If she serves well I would imagine she keeps Sabalenka under pressure as Karolina Pliskova did earlier this week, but the key for the youngster is continuing to play the big break points on her own serve as effectively as she has.
Personally I think that has to come back towards the mean at some point and I will look for Keys to have a little too much for Sabalenka in this Quarter Final.
MY PICKS: Simona Halep - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Cincinnati Update: 8-7, + 2.56 Units (30 Units Staked, + 8.53% Yield)
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