It would have been some awful luck if my second Tennis Pick on Monday had failed to come back as a winner as Sam Querrey served for the match in the final set against John Isner only to face his break points of the match and subsequently drop serve for the first time.
I was convinced it was going to be a hard luck loss on the cards, but Querrey managed to right the ship in the tie-breaker and snapped a run of eight consecutive final set breaker defeats.
The right player moved through and added to the Kei Nishikori success earlier in the day which has got the Cincinnati Masters off to a good start. It is only a start though and there is plenty of work to do to ensure a winning week is put into the books ahead of the final Grand Slam of the season which is now less than two weeks from beginning.
On Tuesday the remaining First Round matches will be completed in both the ATP and WTA events being played in Cincinnati this week. I have Tennis Picks from both draws on Tuesday as well as the beginning of the Second Round with some matches scheduled for today too.
Borna Coric - 2.5 games v Daniil Medvedev: Two of the best up and coming younger players on the ATP Tour meet in the First Round of the Cincinnati Masters on Tuesday. Both Daniil Medvedev and Borna Coric played in the new Next Gen Finals at the end of the 2017 season, but it is Coric who has kicked on and moved up the World Ranking to a significant level that he has direct entry into every big tournament being played on the Tour.
It has been a little more difficult for Medvedev who has had to come through the Qualifiers in both the Canadian and Cincinnati Masters, but the young Russian is playing so well that he has managed to do that. No one should assume it is easy to win a couple of Qualifiers at this level to get into the main draw of the Masters events so Medvedev has to be respected for coming through to enter the First Round.
The numbers have been good on the hard courts for Medvedev which makes him a dangerous opponent on this surface. His serve is an important shot for him, but the problem has come from the return of serve over the last couple of years as that has prevented Medvedev from really getting some consistent results put together.
Medvedev has played well since the move onto the hard courts last month and he has won eight of the ten matches he has played in Washington, Toronto and here in Cincinnati. I think he will enjoy what have been quicker conditions in Cincinnati over the years, but Medvedev is in for a big challenge to beat Borna Coric who has really improved in leaps and bounds on the hard courts in 2018.
The 13-6 record on the surface may not highlight that, but Coric has maintained the strong serving he showed in 2017 and now added to it by really improving on the return side of his game. It has long been considered that Coric will be one of the top players on the Tour but he is beginning to show that he is ready to fulfil his potential as he grows into his body.
It is the return side of the game where Coric looks to have a real edge over Medvedev and I think that may be the important factor in the match. If the young Croatian can continue to find the plays to get into rallies I think he will break down Medvedev with a little more consistency off the ground and I will look for Coric to move through to the Second Round here with a win and cover.
Denis Shapovalov v Kyle Edmund: If you take Kyle Edmund's season as a whole on the hard courts into consideration he has been playing at a very good level and you may wonder how he is only 8-6 on the surface. You may also consider he has been unfortunate not to have a much stronger winning record, but the numbers are heavily influenced by his amazing run at the Australian Open and it has all been tough sledging for him since then.
In fact Edmund snapped a four match losing run on the hard courts by beating McKenzie McDonald in the First Round here. The return side of Edmund's game has been steady in 2018 on the hard courts, but he isn't the most impressive of returners which has put plenty of pressure on him to make sure his serve is working at full tilt.
Unfortunately for Edmund, the serve has really slipped back from his early season form over the last five months and that has been a real reason he has lost so many matches on this surface. His hold percentage has dropped under 80% in his last five hard court matches while his 2018 service points won are up at 67% but down to 63% in his last five matches on the hard courts.
That is a strong enough decline to see a player slip back and those numbers are actually worse than what Edmund has produced on the hard courts in 2016 and 2017. Now he has to face an opponent in Denis Shapovalov who is playing on his favoured surface and who has been in better form than Edmund of late.
The young Canadian is working on his game so there have been some issues on the serve, but it remains a big weapon for him. I would imagine Shapovalov is quite keen on the quick conditions we usually see in Cincinnati and he has slightly superior numbers on the return of serve compared with Edmund which looks to give him an overall edge in this match.
It is Shapovalov who has got the better of Edmund in recent matches including beating him at the US Open last year. The Canadian has won three of the last four between these players and has looked the slightly stronger of the two and I will back him as the underdog to move through to the Third Round.
Naomi Osaka - 2.5 games v Maria Sakkari: Albert Einstein is said to have said that insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.
That may be what I am feeling as I oppose Maria Sakkari on the hard courts again this summer. I didn't have a lot of success doing that in San Jose, but Sakkari's numbers continue to be very average on the hard courts and she has been overachieving with some of her results.
Fatigue may have been an issue for Sakkari in her loss to Daria Kasatkina in Montreal last week, but I still think this is a player who is earning better results than the numbers indicate she should.
A few months ago a match with Naomi Osaka would have been a really difficult one for Sakkari, but the Japanese star has not really played that well over the last couple of weeks. Osaka did win the Indian Wells title for the biggest success of her career, but she is just 1-2 on the hard courts in Washington and Montreal so confidence has to be an issue.
However Osaka has a very good serve which can at least limit what Sakkari can do on the return. Her own return game is slightly superior to Sakkari's and Osaka did dominate her in their match at Indian Wells back in March.
I do think she is capable of doing that again and I will back Osaka to cover the number in this one.
Victoria Azarenka v Caroline Garcia: We have yet to see Victoria Azarena come anywhere close to reaching the level she was displaying on the hard courts prior to her prolonged absence from the Tour. That was down to giving birth and then having a custody battle on her hands, but Azarenka is back to being a regular player on the Tour and is trying to find the consistency to make some big moves up the World Rankings.
The 2016 numbers on the hard courts were incredible from Azarenka and it was always going to be difficult to reach those levels again even if she had full health.
I think Azarenka needs to be given some credit for the levels she has played at in 2018 on her return and her 10-4 record on the hard courts has to be respected. The numbers are actually pretty similar to where Azarenka was prior to 2016, which was a special year, and I do think she is very dangerous on this surface even if she has yet to put too many strong runs together.
The Semi Final run in Miami has really been the main reason for her 10 wins in 2018, but Azarenka has had to face some tough draws which have prevented her going deep into draws. She faces another in the Second Round in Cincinnati when going up against Caroline Garcia, but I think Azarenka may be able to edge out the Frenchwoman who reached the Montreal Quarter Final last week.
It is the serve which has been very important for Garcia on this surface in 2018, but her return has not quite reached the level she would have liked and so there is room for improvement. Garcia returned well in Montreal last week which will have given her some confidence but she was only 9-7 on the hard courts prior to the Premier Event in Canada.
Garcia has lost her first match in Cincinnati in each of the last two seasons and Azarenka may just have the edge with the match under her belt here too. I imagine it will be close and I do like Garcia as a player, but Azarenka can edge her out and I will back the former World Number 1 as the underdog in this Second Round match.
MY PICKS: Borna Coric - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Denis Shapovalov @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Victoria Azarenka @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-0, + 4.74 Units (4 Units Staked, + 118.50% Yield)
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