Tennis Picks 2018 (August 24th)

The US Open draw was revealed on Thursday evening and I am going to be breaking down the outright selections on the final Grand Slam of the season by Saturday afternoon.

On Sunday I should have the US Open Day 1 Picks ready to go, but the early thoughts from the tournament coming up is that the women's draw is wide open outside of a very tough First Quarter, while defending Champion Rafael Nadal has to be very confident of his chances to go very deep in the draw.

That's for another day though and today the focus is on the Semi Final matches to be played at ATP Winston Salem and WTA New Haven. Surprisingly I do have three selections from the four matches that are to be played on Friday as I look to round off this week with some solid successes and momentum to take into the US Open beginning this Monday.


Julia Goerges v Aryna Sabalenka: It would be foolish to be anything but impressed with the performances of Aryna Sabalenka who looks like a player that could be a real force on the WTA Tour in the years ahead. The young Belarusian has really enjoyed the hard courts over the last month after a surprising Qualifier defeat in San Jose and she has backed up her Semi Final run at the Cincinnati Premier Event by reaching the same stage here in New Haven.

The big points have really been the key factor for Sabalenka who has held her nerve at important times in matches over the last couple of weeks. That does mean she has won a couple of matches that could have easily gone the other way and there is clearly some room for improvement even though she has produced a solid winning record in that time.

It does have to be acknowledged that Sabalenka has been playing at a much higher standard this week in New Haven compared with Cincinnati and that has resulted in two very strong wins over Sam Stosur and Belinda Bencic. The serve has been huge for her, but Sabalenka still has to be a little better on the return of serve and now she faces Julia Goerges who has been very good on the hard courts.

The serve has always been a big weapon for Goerges and she has actually improved slightly on the numbers she produced in 2017. The German was a little fortunate to get through one match here, but the other two wins in New Haven have seen Goerges playing very well and all of the tennis played by Sabalenka over the last couple of weeks could have an impact on her at some point.

I do think this will be a close match with both players looking to dominate behind serve. It is Goerges who has the slightly superior return game at this moment in their careers and I think that is the key difference in this one and I will back the top ten Ranked player to make it through to the Final.


Daniil Medvedev - 2.5 games v Taro Daniel: Over the last month I have been keen to get behind Daniil Medvedev on a number of occasions and I have to admit he has not really let me down. There continues to be a slight under-appreciation of Medvedev and the kind of tennis he can play on the hard courts, but that may have something to do with the youngster losing a little of the consistency which he had been building up.

The overall numbers produced by Medvedev on the hard courts in 2018 have been significantly improved on what he produced in 2017 and the Russian is 11-3 on the hard courts over the last month. A number of those wins have come in the Qualifiers, but that is the kind of level of opponent he will be facing in this Semi Final.

Taro Daniel has had a strong run in Winston Salem but he has been far from convincing in at least two of his four wins here. You have to credit any player for getting through the matches when they have been as tight as they have been, but Daniel is right to be the underdog in this one.

He can step up his level as he showed when beating Novak Djokovic at the Indian Wells Masters but that is arguably the best win of his career and there has been little sign Daniel can reach that level on any consistent basis. Daniel is holding under 75% of service games on the hard courts in 2018 which puts him under intense pressure all the time on the quicker surfaces, and that is highlighted by the fact he is breaking at under 25% of the time on the return.

Putting those numbers together and you do begin to see it will be difficult for Daniel to maintain strong runs through the draws and he has been far from dominant in Winston Salem as I have already mentioned.

The Medvedev return game has been decent on the hard courts with 38% of return points won on this surface in each of the last two seasons. Those numbers get a little better when Medvedev is playing opponents outside of the top 20 of the World Rankings and I do like the chances of the younger player winning and making it through to the Final with a cover of this number.


Pablo Carreno Busta - 1.5 games v Steve Johnson: On Thursday I backed Pablo Carreno Busta and Kyle Edmund to win their Quarter Final matches, but Steve Johnson had other ideas. The American had shown very little form to take into the US Open, but he has produced some of his best tennis this week in New Haven and he will certainly be a tough out the rest of the way.

However I continue to insist Pablo Carreno Busta is being under-rated on the hard courts and he has already beaten Johnson in straight sets at the Miami Masters earlier in 2018. They did play a much closer match on the clay courts since then, but Johnson was perhaps a little fortunate that day having saved 11/14 break points in the match and taking his chances to win the second set.

You could argue Johnson is in the middle of his best form of the season on the hard courts having won his three matches as impressively as he has. It is easily the best three consecutive matches he has played on the hard courts since Delray Beach back in February and Johnson has to be playing with a lot of confidence at the moment.

The American has to be respected for the big improvement he has made on the return side of his game which makes him more dangerous if he can maintain the numbers on the serve. While the 22% break percentage is perhaps not the greatest number you will see, it is an improvement from Johnson and makes him a player that could cause some problems in the upcoming US Open.

However there had been one or two struggles from Johnson in the last month prior to the week in Winston Salem and now he faces an opponent who is serving as well as at any time in his career. Pablo Carreno Busta was only broken once by Hyeon Chung, a very good returner, in his Quarter Final win and he was under very little pressure for much of the match.

The Spaniard is a very good returner on the hard courts which has sparked his good results on the surface over the last twelve months. I am sure Carreno Busta would like to be a little more clinical with the break point chances he is creating, but even with that in mind I would favour him to win this match and I think he is being a little under-rated in this match.

He was clearly the better player on the day when he beat Johnson in Miami and I will look for Carreno Busta to win and cover in this Semi Final.

MY PICKS: Julia Goerges @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Pablo Carreno Busta - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 3-1, + 4.94 Units (8 Units Staked, + 61.75% Yield)