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Friday, 29 November 2019

Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2019 (November 30-December 1)

Everyone who knows anything about English Football will understand the importance of December to clubs around the country with games being set to come thick and fast.

Over the next ten days there are three full rounds of Premier League fixtures with the first of those being played on Saturday and Sunday this weekend.

On Tuesday through Thursday there is another full round of fixtures and then next Saturday a third round begins which is going to be concluded on Monday. That means a busy time for managers and also for fans and Fantasy Football players and I will have three separate threads ready to go.

This one is out on Friday and my next two will hopefully be out on Tuesday and Friday in the coming days.

Teams coming out of the European action might be a little more cautious with their team selections in this round of fixtures compared to those clubs who have had a week to prepare for fixtures. It was an important week for Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur who join Manchester United and Wolves with a guaranteed spot into the Knock Out Rounds of the Champions League and Europa League respectively. The first two of those clubs have also secured their spots within the Group which will make Match Day 6 fixtures meaningless and likely means a number of first team players will be given a chance to get some rest.

Manchester United and Wolves can still win their Groups but will need home results on Match Day 6, while Arsenal are almost certainly going through to the Last 32 of the Europa League barring an embarrassing defeat at Standard Liege.

Chelsea should also be very confident having earned a 2-2 draw in Valencia meaning a home win over Lille is enough to progress to the Last 16 of the Champions League.

However Champions League winners Liverpool are perhaps in the stickiest of positions after a 1-1 home draw with Napoli. Instead of winning and guaranteeing top spot in the Group, Liverpool have to either earn a positive result in Salzburg or score at least four goals to control their own destiny.

Any other result and Liverpool will need Genk to upset Napoli in the other game in the Group and at least earn a point in Italy to have any hope. It is not ideal for a club who have a lot more games in December than the other Premier League clubs and the missed opportunity to make wholesale changes to a squad and also progress to the Last 16 is now passed them. I still would expect Liverpool to do enough to get through, but Salzburg have shown they are far from an easy touch.

For now all of the managers are focusing on the Premier League and earning a result this weekend. I am also looking for a strong end to November after a bit of an unfortunate time for the selections last week.

I have no idea how the Aston Villa versus Newcastle United game ended with less than three goals shared out considering the chances created, but it is what it is and I can only look to bounce back this week.

Newcastle United v Manchester City Pick: The opening Premier League game of the weekend comes from St James' Park and I think Manchester City look plenty short in the outright market when you consider their recent form.

A single win from the last 4 games in all competitions is a concern and Sergio Aguero's absence will be magnified if Manchester City can't get back to scoring goals. They have only scored more than once in the victory during that poor run and Manchester City are not creating the chances that they were.

It won't be easy to get things right at Newcastle United where Manchester City have only won once in their last 3 visits. Even an opening goal inside sixty seconds could not change that narrative last season in Manchester City's 2-1 defeat here and I am intrigued in backing the home team with a start.

That might sound a little strange considering Newcastle United's below par performance against Aston Villa on Monday Night Football. The scoreline might have read 2-0, but Aston Villa had plenty of chances to really embarrass Newcastle United on the day and so I can see why people might think they are going to be blown away in this one too.

However Newcastle United have long been a more effective home team than an away one and they have avoided defeat in all games played since the opening weekend 0-1 loss to Arsenal. They have been pretty good in those games for the most part and Newcastle United have pace in the final third and also a big team that can be dangerous from set pieces which has to worry a Manchester City team that have not kept clean sheets in recent weeks.

Steve Bruce has to be brave enough to take advantage of the clear vulnerabilities Manchester City have and I do think the home team will cause problems if they are brave in their play. It is still difficult to believe Manchester City will lose, but I would be disappointed if Newcastle United can't push them all the way and having a two goal start on the Asian Handicap should be good enough for us to at least receive the stake back.

I don't often want to oppose a Manchester City team who are capable of wiping out any opponent when at their best- however, we have not really seen them firing on all cylinders in the last three weeks and the absence of Sergio Aguero may mean a tight win is on the cards for the visitors at best.

Burnley v Crystal Palace Pick: On paper there will be plenty who think this will be the last game shown on any highlights programme you may watch on a Saturday night, but I am not sure that the layers are underestimating the chance of a few goals being shared out in this one.

Out of the two teams Burnley have been better form than Crystal Palace, but I don't really want to criticise Roy Hodgson's men considering the fixture list that has been negotiated. The performances have been a little mixed, but things are easing up from this week and I think Crystal Palace will be encouraged by how well they played against leaders Liverpool in their 1-2 defeat last weekend.

If they can produce those levels in the upcoming fixtures I think Crystal Palace will win more games than they lose and there is a considerable threat they can pose for teams with the forwards they have.

Burnley will certainly be respecting the challenge in front of them, but they can't help but be feeling confident after back to back 3-0 wins in the Premier League. Sometimes results can cloud the levels being produced, but Burnley have been creating a lot of chances in recent games and in Chris Wood and Ashley Barnes they have players who can score goals for the club.

The home team have scored at least two goals in 3 of their last 4 at Turf Moor and they should be able to create chances against this Crystal Palace defence which has been far from watertight. However Crystal Palace have also found an attacking threat in their away games and they have scored at least two goals in 3 of their last 5 on their travels despite the tough Stadiums they have visited.

This is another, but I do think these teams can provide the chances to share out at least three goals on the day. The odds against quotes for that look very appealing when you consider 3 of the last 4 between Burnley and Crystal Palace at Turf Moor have seen that number hit and that will be my play this weekend.

Chelsea v West Ham United Pick: If Valencia had some composure in the final third Chelsea would have been in big trouble in their Champions League Group, but Frank Lampard's men returned from Spain with a valuable point.

They will have to beat Lille at Stamford Bridge to ensure progress through to the Last 16 of the competition, but Lampard will turn his attention back to the Premier League before that. Chelsea will play three League games in a row before that Champions League Match Day 6 game and The Blues have to feel they can earn at least seven points from the fixtures in front of them.

First up is this very winnable looking fixture against West Ham United who have lost 3 League games in a row and conceded at least three goals in each of those defeats. Manuel Pellegrini is feeling the pressure and his team showed little fight until it was too late in the 2-3 home defeat to Tottenham Hotspur last week.

Reports suggest West Ham United have put a shortlist together of potential replacements for Pellegrini, although he can end those rumours by guiding West Ham United to a win at Stamford Bridge. That looks a tall task for a team who have struggled defensively and who have scored just 2 goals in their last 5 away games in all competitions.

Chelsea are a team who can create chances and I do think we will see more of that on Saturday. The injury to Tammy Abraham is a blow, and he could be absent this weekend, but I expect Chelsea to still have enough in the final third to win and win well.

In recent years hosting West Ham United has been a challenge for Chelsea who have won 3 of the last 6 here against them. One of those was last season when Eden Hazard scored twice in a 2-0 win for Chelsea, but I think others can step up and help see off an opponent lacking confidence and with players wondering whether their manager has much of a future at the club.

Liverpool v Brighton Pick: The 1-1 home draw with Napoli in the Champions League has just given Liverpool a problem while there has to be a concern with the lack of clean sheets being produced by the team. As long as they remain on top of the Premier League I don't think any of the fans will be overly concerned, but Liverpool will need to be better defensively to make sure they are not putting too much pressure on their strikers to score the goals to win games.

At Anfield it has not been a problem for Liverpool who have won 13 League games in a row here and they have scored at least twice in each of those victories. They should be able to create plenty of chances against this Brighton team who have looked very weak defensively in losses to Manchester United and Leicester City either side of the international break.

Liverpool should be at full strength for this one despite the upcoming Merseyside derby that is coming up during the week and I think that will lead to a relatively straight-forward win for the home team.

I have been impressed with Graham Potter's impact at Brighton so I don't want to disrespect them, but it has been clear this is a team that is very different when it comes to games at the Amex Stadium and those on their travels. Last week even being at home could not help Brighton, while the team have lost comfortably at Manchester City, Chelsea and Manchester United in the Premier League already this season.

Brighton did beat Tottenham Hotspur 3-0, but that game was at home and I think they are going to struggle to contain Liverpool at Anfield.

The lack of clean sheets will make this selection look unappealing to some, but I do think Liverpool have defended well enough in recent home games to think those are going to come. Teams have just been clinical in front of goal and I am going to back Liverpool at odds against to win this one with a clean sheet as Brighton have struggled for consistency in the final third.

Aaron Connelly could be back to give them a boost and Brighton should provide a threat from set pieces, but Liverpool should control much of this game. At some point that control is going to be enough to limit teams in the final third and produce the clean sheets which should have arrived from the statistical breakdown of their games.

At odds against it is worth chancing that Liverpool can earn a fourth clean sheet in a row in a winning effort against Brighton.

Tottenham Hotspur v Bournemouth Pick: Games are coming thick and fast at this time of the Premier League season and that is especially the case for Jose Mourinho who is the new manager of Tottenham Hotspur. Instead of having some time to really put his ideas across to his squad, Mourinho is working with limited days between games at the moment and that means it is a real work in progress despite inheriting a decent enough squad.

The main problems for Tottenham Hotspur all season has been defensively and that is an area that will be irritating Mourinho even two games into his tenure with the club. In both games Tottenham Hotspur have conceded two goals and even the huge recovery against Olympiacos won't have given the new manager much relief as he looks to imprint his standard on the team.

I do think Tottenham Hotspur will improve under Mourinho's guidance because his teams have always been pretty secure defensively, but we might not see that impact for a few weeks. In the meantime the manager will rely on a strong set of forwards who have provided seven goals in his first two games in charge and I think there could be more scored on Saturday.

Tottenham Hotspur have played well when they have hosted Bournemouth and they might be catching them at the right time with injuries and back to back defeats for The Cherries.

Eddie Howe's men have had a good season to date, but they were well beaten by Wolves last weekend and this is a difficult ground to visit. Bournemouth being without Josh King is a blow for a team who will look to capitalise on the chances that may come their way, while Eddie Howe's future is once again being discussed as the likes of Everton show interest in the English manager.

I have been impressed with the defensive work that Bournemouth have done this season, but they have been in a poor run away from home. The lack of goals in those games is a concern too and I think Jose Mourinho might be able to enjoy a more serene home game in the Premier League than he had in the Champions League.

My feeling is that Tottenham Hotspur can win a fifth home game in a row against Bournemouth and I think they can win fairly comfortably on the day. Bournemouth have just lacked a real threat in recent away games and missing Josh King will make that much tougher for the visitors, while Spurs have scored seven goals in two games under the new manager. With that in mind I think Tottenham Hotspur have enough in them to cover the Asian Handicap and win at home in the Premier League for the first time since the end of September.

Southampton v Watford Pick: Two managers who have to be feeling the pressure will guide their teams into the late Saturday Premier League kick off and I don't think it is too far-fetched to suggest the losing team will be getting their P45 ready at full time for either Ralph Hasenhuttl or Quique Sanchez Flores.

The concern for Southampton and Watford is that they will be in danger of being cut off in the bottom three with a loss. With the money involved in the Premier League neither club will want the drop into the Championship and both owners have shown they are ready to make an immediate change if they feel their current manager is not going to get the job done.

The late goal conceded at Arsenal was a huge blow for Southampton as they dropped two points, but the performance will be encouraging. However the players have struggled at St Mary's all season and the 1-2 loss to Everton last time out here continued a worrying trend of conceding far too many goals.

Southampton do get on the scoreboard here, but that isn't enough if you are conceding at least two goals in every game and Watford do have players who can take advantage of that as they did in the 0-2 win at Norwich City.

That has been the one moment of light in an otherwise cloudy beginning to Flores' second tenure in charge at Vicarage Road. The 0-3 home loss to Burnley would have hurt everyone associated with Watford and I think the manager will be well aware that his time will come to an end if they can't earn a result here.

Games between these clubs have not featured a lot of goals in recent seasons, but both look capable of scoring and unlikely to keep a clean sheet. The 1-1 scoreline is a real player, but I think the motivation for the three points will be extremely high in both camps and the attacking players could have spaces to find a way to share out three goals on the day at a decent enough price.

Norwich City v Arsenal Pick: There are rumours that Unai Emery could lose his job as soon as Friday after Arsenal were beaten by Eintracht Frankfurt in the Europa League and the manager does look like a man who knows he does not have long left now. The Arsenal board are in meetings on Friday so the entire feel of this club might be a lot different by the time this fixture kicks off.

Right now the players look as disillusioned as some of the fans with the tactics run by Emery and even if he is in charge on Sunday I would worry about how much effort the Arsenal team want to put into this one. On the other hand he could be sacked by then and even then there will be some uncertainty as players wonder who the new manager is going to be and where they are going to stand and all of this adds up to being an opportunity for Norwich City.

The Canaries won't be worrying about problems others have considering the injuries they have been dealing with throughout this season. A newly promoted club who have not spent a lot of money in the summer were always going to find it difficult to plug the gaps, but Norwich City have not allowed themselves to be mentally worn down.

A lack of quality might cost them when it is all said and done in May, but the team are playing for the manager and the 0-2 win at Everton last Saturday is a big boost in confidence for them. They will be looking to back that up here, but you can't ignore how poorly Norwich City have defended at Carrow Road as Watford became the fifth Premier League club to leave the ground having scored at least two goals.

Norwich City have unsurprisingly lost 3 in a row here when you think of the goals they are conceding, but in general they do create problems of their own too. I expect that to be the case against an Arsenal team who have looked vulnerable any time a team has gone after them and I expect Norwich City to really want to pressure them from the opening minutes.

I can't completely ignore Arsenal's lack of away goals in the Premier League, but this is a team who can create chances and have some quality players in the forward line. I expect those to play their part in this fixture and I think a high-scoring game is in the offing.

The first 5 Norwich City games at Carrow Road all featured at least four goals shared out, while 2 of the 6 Arsenal away games have also hit that mark. If there is an early goal in this one, I can see an entertaining game played out with both teams creating a host of chances and those opportunities can lead to a game that features at least four goals shared out.

Wolves v Sheffield United Pick: The 3-3 draw at Sporting Braga on Thursday night underlines why I find it hard to really back Wolves with any confidence and I certainly have to be a lot more sure about their chances if I am going to consider them at odds on to win a game.

It is especially the case this Sunday when Wolves host Sheffield United who are unbeaten away from home and that includes them visiting Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur in the Premier League. Chris Wilder will have had a full week to work with his players and the energy they use can certainly make things difficult for a squad that were playing in difficult conditions on Thursday in Portugal.

Wolves have shown they can handle the pressure of playing both the Europa League and Premier League within days of each other and they are in fine form. You can understand why some would want to back them, but the newly vacated job at Arsenal has to be a potential distraction for manager Nuno Espirito Santo who is considered amongst the favourites to be given the job at the Emirates Stadium.

I don't think the manager is one who will lose focus, but Wolves are not a massively high-scoring team and that will give Sheffield United a chance in this one.

I can make enough of a case for both teams here and that means I won't be having an opinion on this one that will be backed.

Leicester City v Everton Pick: Football can always throw a curveball into the equation when you think you have got a good read of a fixture, but I really can't see anything but another Leicester City win this weekend.

The last live Premier League game of the weekend comes from the King Power Stadium where Leicester City are looking for a seventh win in a row in all competitions. They are facing an Everton team coming off a really poor 0-2 home defeat to Norwich City and with the future of manager Marco Silva being heavily discussed.

It isn't just media rumours about the manager, but it has sounded like the Everton board came close to sacking him earlier this week. Only a failure to agree on a potential replacement has given Silva a stay of execution, but the fixture list looks very menacing and it is hard to believe the Portuguese manager survives for much longer barring some big upsets.

Everton play at the top two in the space of a few days before hosting Chelsea and then visiting Manchester United. The Merseyside derby next week looks very intimidating and the players are not full of confidence at the moment despite having been unbeaten in 3 games in all competitions prior to the loss to Norwich City.

Where Leicester City have been very strong at home, Everton have only just snapped a 4 game away losing run in the Premier League when beating Southampton at St Mary's. They do have a decent record here in the last few seasons, but Leicester City are playing with a real belief in the system set up by Brendan Rodgers and I do think the Everton players might be considering what is going to happen at the club.

That uncertainty could lead to a fairly comfortable win for an in-form Leicester City who have scored at least two goals in the last 5 at the King Power Stadium. Backing the home team to win a game with at least that many goals produced on Sunday is a very appealing price here.

Manchester United v Aston Villa Pick: I am not going to dwell on any negatives about the 2-1 defeat at Astana for Manchester United, but instead say a number of the young players looked comfortable playing in Europe for the first team. Many of those were making their debuts at senior level and I think they can be proud of their performance while also be deserving of further opportunities.

It is less likely that fans are going to be able to gloss over any defeat in the Premier League this weekend when Manchester United host Aston Villa ahead of a big week for the club. On Wednesday Jose Mourinho will return to Old Trafford with his new club, while we are less than a week away from the Manchester derby at the Etihad Stadium.

Those are big games for Manchester United and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer and the manager will want some momentum to take into those fixtures by beating Aston Villa. The last few games have seen Manchester United rediscover some of their goal-scoring form and that is not good news for Aston Villa who have not been defending anywhere near the level that Dean Smith would have wanted.

I do expect Manchester United to score goals and create a lot of chances, but that does not mean they are going to win this game easily.

As poor as Aston Villa may defend, they have been very good the other way and have caused issues for the likes of Liverpool and Manchester City in recent games. Dean Smith is the kind of manager who will want his team to have an attacking intent in the fixture and I do think Aston Villa will have some chances of their own as they have shown an ability to create opportunities over the last month.

They might even score here, but Manchester United have kept their first team fresh for this fixture without the need to travel to Kazakhstan. They have been a little better in the last couple of games at Old Trafford and I think Manchester United will enjoy some of the spaces that Aston Villa allow them to operate in and I will look for the home team to win a game featuring two or more goals on the day.

MY PICKS: Manchester City & Under 3.5 Goals @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Burnley-Crystal Palace Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Liverpool Win to Nil @ 2.10 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Southampton-Watford Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Norwich City-Arsenal Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Leicester City & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Manchester United & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.72 Coral (2 Units)

November 2019/20: 6-10, - 7.66 Units (32 Units Staked, - 23.94% Yield)
October 2019/2016-14-2, + 6.14 Units (62 Units Staked, + 9.90% Yield)
September 2019/2013-9-1, + 8.82 Units (46 Units Staked, + 19.17% Yield)
August 2019/2014-17-2, - 8.78 Units (64 Units Staked, - 13.72% Yield)

Fantasy Football GameWeek 14
I am off my worst Fantasy Football GW of the 2019/20 season and I have to admit I was extremely frustrated by the nonsense of VAR last week.

I have made it clear I am not a fan of a system that only should appeal to those who are lacking any real passion for Football- there is no one who can say they are willing to lose themselves in the sport who want to see some fool with a protractor out trying to work out if someone's nose hair was less than a millimetre offside.

Twice I was done in by the system last week with Raheem Sterling's goal ruled out when it looked like he was level at best and the system is guessing his starting point. But to make matters worse was the Jamie Vardy twice taken penalty which saw countless owners who had captained him luck into points they simply didn't deserve.

Getting my Captain wrong again is becoming a feature of the season and I finished with a number that was below the average for the week which frustrates to say the least.

Injuries over the last couple of weeks are beginning to pile up and I am almost forced to take a hit in GW14 as my best laid plans have gone awry. This will only be the second hit I have taken this season, but it has to be done to make sure I am still able to capitalise on the first Wild Card of the season as I have planned to do for some time.

The two transfers I am making this week can be seen in my GW14 team which can be read below. Over the next couple of Rounds it is difficult to write out full Fantasy portions of this thread with the games coming thick and fast over the next week.

I have decided to keep Tammy Abraham despite him being ruled out for the game against West Ham United this weekend. Frank Lampard should have an update on his condition in the coming days and I don't really want to drop him unless he is missing out again during the week as I would then wonder if we see him before GW17.

Joshua King is another injury I am dealing with and I had decided to try and go big at the back one more time in a season when clean sheets have simply not been forthcoming for the top teams. I am doing that while replacing Benjamin Mendy who has not nailed down the left back role along with the Bournemouth striker and Abraham will be the next player out of the squad if he is going to be missing another couple of games.

My GW14 Fantasy Team
David De Gea- the decision to bring in a Manchester United player was somewhat enforced when Ederson went down with an injury, but it was also a statistical play which hasn't paid off so far. Keeping a home clean sheet against Aston Villa is far from straight-forward.

Andrew Robertson- Liverpool have struggled for clean sheets all season but a home game against Brighton is another good chance. The left back has been very successful at earning assists and goals which means he has continued producing even without the clean sheets.

Trent Alexander-Arnold- I have brought in the other Liverpool full back in place of Benjamin Mendy who I simply don't believe plays both games this week (although he will probably have a clean sheet in the one he does play now I've dropped him for a hit). Trent Alexander-Arnold is a source of assists, but home games against Brighton and Everton followed by a trip to Bournemouth should be a chance for at least one clean sheet to go with potential attacking returns.

Caglar Soyuncu- a home game against an Everton team who likely know manager Marco Silva is about to be sacked. Four clean sheets in a row for Leicester City.

Fikayo Tomori- was rested during the week in the 2-2 draw at Valencia but I expect to be restored to the starting line up.

Sadio Mane (C)- relatively easy choice for Captain in a home game against Brighton.

Raheem Sterling- hasn't been at his best this past week, but a key attacking performer for Manchester City who head to Newcastle United.

Youri Tielemans- doesn't grab the headlines likes Jamie Vardy and James Maddison, but the Belgian is always in and around the attacking areas for Leicester City.

Anthony Martial- Manchester United have scored six goals in their last two at Old Trafford and the Frenchman leads the line.

Andrea Pereira- another risky selection made because of position he tends to be selected in rather than the quality I believe he has.

Danny Ings- the transfer was one I was considering anyway as Southampton continue to create a lot of chances. He has been in form for Ralph Hasenhuttl and Southampton face Watford, Norwich City, Newcastle United, West Ham United and Aston Villa across the next five GWs. I am happy selecting him knowing he will start for my team more often than not.

Bench- Michael McGovern, John Lundstram (difficult away game at Wolves, but I don't mind if I have to bring him into the first eleven), Tammy Abraham (injured), Xande Silva (injured)

Thursday, 28 November 2019

College Football Week 14 Picks 2019 (November 29-30)

The final week of the regular season is here in the 2019 College Football year and that means the last chance for some teams to try and give the College Football PlayOff committee something to think about.

The main team you think of in that regard has to be the Alabama Crimson Tide as they are arguably the biggest name that won't be playing in Championship Saturday in Week 15.

And just because you are playing in a Championship Game next week it doesn't mean you can afford to simply win out as the Committee are clearly looking to see who can impress. The likes of Clemson and Georgia have overmatched opponents on the road, but they can't afford to let those opponents hang around as the rivals would like to do.

Ohio State have a big challenge in front of them as they head to the Big House to take on Michigan, but they are arguably the team that can perhaps afford a loss more than any other along with the LSU Tigers who host the Texas A&M Aggies.

Things could really change quickly in College Football if there are some upsets in this week, but the Pac-12 and Big 12 Conferences can't afford for their top teams to be beaten again before the Championship Games are played. It is going to be interesting viewing across the Thanksgiving weekend to say the least.

A narrow winning record in Week 13 is welcome as it makes it four straight weeks in College Football that I have returned a positive return. One more solid week will give me some momentum to take into the shortened Week 15 and the Championship Games that are going to be played before College Football takes a short break prior to the Bowl Games beginning in the middle of December. The College Football Semi Final Games are played on Saturday 28th December and we should have a clearer picture of what the top four could potentially look like by the end of Week 14.

Boise State Broncos @ Colorado State Rams Pick: The Mountain West Championship Game is set to go next week as the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors will take on the Boise State Broncos, but the Mountain Division Champions have to complete their Conference play in Week 14. You could understand that some will wonder how much effort the Broncos want to put into this game knowing another big one is coming up in a weeks time, but Boise State are targeting an unbeaten Conference record in 2019 and that should keep the focused.

They head to the Colorado State Rams who have surpassed the three wins earned in 2018, but who are going to have a second losing season in a row under Mike Bobo. There is some pressure building on Bobo with suggestions the Rams will be moving on from the Head Coach before the 2020 season is played, but a win over the visiting Broncos could be a boost for Bobo heading into another off-season without a Bowl Game.

Colorado State have lost two games in a row, but this is a team who have been competitive so the immediate reaction might be to think this is a very big number for them to be given. However the Rams lost a rivalry game and there has to be some motivational issues if they believe their Head Coach is on the hot seat.

The visitors are using the chance to finish the regular season unbeaten within the Conference as a big motivational tool considering Boise State have not managed to do that since moving to the Mountain West Conference. Even using a third string Quarter Back has not been a problem for the Broncos and they will feel they can deal with the expected cold conditions in Colorado on Friday.

With snow potentially a problem, the key for both teams is going to be able to run the ball and that is where the Boise State Offensive Line looks to be the dominant one in the trenches. The Broncos should be able to establish the run, while Colorado State have struggled to do the same in recent weeks and now have to face a Defensive Line which is giving up less than three yards per carry.

Being unable to run the ball puts pressure on the Rams to throw and while they have some decent numbers I do have to worry about how they are going to deal with the Boise State pass rush. In perfect conditions you may think Patrick O'Brien can make some plays throwing the ball, but that might not be the case on Friday with the weather that is being forecast and I like the Boise State Broncos to earn a statement win on the road to show they are ready for the Championship Game in Week 15.

The Broncos have covered in their last four visits to Fort Collins and I will back them to do that here.

Georgia Bulldogs @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Pick: A place in the SEC Championship Game has already been secured by the Georgia Bulldogs, but they have one terrible loss on the resume which is yet to have an impact on their College Football PlayOff Ranking. Another loss in the next couple of weeks will be hard to ignore for the Committee so there is a pressure on the Bulldogs, but I honestly think they will struggle to make the PlayOffs even as the SEC Champion if they are beating by rivals Georgia Tech in Week 14.

The only loss suffered by the Bulldogs has come against a team with a losing record in the South Carolina Gamecocks and the Clemson Tigers face them in Week 14. One loss like that can be forgiven, but Georgia will be punished by the Committee if they fall to a second team with a losing record and one who have lost by 28 points to the Tigers and were blown out here by Virginia Tech two weeks ago.

It has been a difficult season for the Yellow Jackets, but most expected that as they were moving on from Paul Johnson's triple option Offense and installing a pro Offense under Geoff Collins in his first season as Head Coach. For the third time in five seasons Georgia Tech are going to finish up with a losing record, but there have been some positive signs and the school know they are going to have some teething problems with the massive change in Offensive schemes while previously recruiting players who would be suited to Johnson's system.

James Graham and the Offense produced the most yards of the season in the win over NC State in Week 13 to underline the progress made by the Yellow Jackets, but the Georgia Defense is one of the best in the nation. Graham has been able to rely on Jordan Mason when it comes to running the ball, but the Georgia Tech Offensive Line is not going to get much change out of this Bulldogs Defensive Line which has held teams to 1.7 yards per carry in their last three games against SEC opponents.

That will only mean more for Graham to do at Quarter Back which looks like a difficult task for an inexperienced player. This Bulldogs Secondary has held up against every opponent they have faced and they should be able to close the holes that Graham wants to throw into which could lead to turnovers and drives being stalled quicker than the Yellow Jackets would want.

Georgia's Defensive unit is as good as any in College Football, but the Offense has not really matched them despite Jake Fromm being a Quarter Back that is expected to take the step to the next level. My concern for the Bulldogs is that they are not going to have enough Offense to win games, but they have managed to get through their schedule as it is although this is a chance for Fromm to impress.

D'Andre Swift is another player who is set to take a step into the next level, and the Running Back might find more spaces in this game to aid Fromm. Swift and the Bulldogs have had some issues establishing the run against SEC Defensive Lines, but the Georgia Tech Defensive Line is not of those level and we should see Swift and company establishing the run very effectively.

Jake Fromm will then be given a chance to at least sling the ball around and have one of his better games from a statistical point of view at least. The Bulldogs are only averaging 215 passing yards per game in 2019, but Fromm should be able to make some big throws while his team are running the ball well and I do think Georgia can pull away for a blow out win.

The Bulldogs won by 31 points when they last played here in 2017 and they have covered in their last nine games in this part of Atlanta. The road team has been dominant against the spread in this rivalry series and I think the Georgia Bulldogs will be looking for a big win ahead of the SEC Championship Game to keep themselves firmly in the PlayOff Committee's thoughts.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons @ Syracuse Orange Pick: Three weeks ago it looked like the Wake Forest Demon Deacons were not only about to have a fourth straight winning record in a row under Dave Clawson, but the team were very much involved in a race to reach the Championship Game in the ACC. Back to back losses including a blow out to the National Champions Clemson have ended those dreams, but Wake Forest were back to winning ways against the Duke Blue Devils in Week 13.

Another win in Week 14 will see Wake Forest surpass the previous best of eight wins in a season under Clawson and will also set them up for a rare double digit winning year.

Those have to motivating factors as Wake Forest look to finish up the regular season with consecutive wins in what has been a surprisingly strong season for the Demon Deacons. However outside of the Clemson Tigers this entire Division has felt like teams that were supposed to be good have underachieved and those that were perhaps going to have difficulties have excelled.

Wake Forest are one example of that, but their hosts the Syracuse Orange are another as they have slipped from finishing 10-3 in 2018 to having a 4-7 record in 2019 with Bowl eligibility looking unlikely. There are enough teams struggling to reach the six win mark which may give Syracuse a backdoor into the Bowl season if they can win this game at finish up at 5-7, but Dino Babers will be disappointed as he looks to avoid finishing with just four wins in three of his four seasons as the Head Coach here.

There is an opportunity for Syracuse in this game and I do think they will be motivated with the final home game of the season and the final game for some of their Senior players. It looks like a good match up for them Offensively with Syracuse showing they can run the ball very well and the Demon Deacons Defensive Line not being able to contain teams on the ground.

It is very important for Syracuse to be able to run the ball as they can control the clock and also make things easier for Tommy DeVito who has struggled for consistency at Quarter Back. Being in third and manageable rather than second and long is key for DeVito considering his lack of consistency when dropping back to throw and I do think he can be successful if the Orange are running the ball like they should be able to do.

In that situation DeVito will be throwing against a Wake Forest Secondary which has allowed some big numbers throughout the 2019 season and it will also ease the pass rush pressure that the Demon Deacons can generate.

Wake Forest will believe in their own Offensive strengths to make sure they can stay with Syracuse and I do think they have a little better balance than the Orange. Jamie Newman has shown he is very much a dual-threat Quarter Back and that will make things a little more difficult for Syracuse who have struggled up front to clamp down on the run.

The Demon Deacons Offensive Line have not opened up big holes, but they should have success like everyone else seemingly have had against Syracuse when it comes to pounding the ball. With a Quarter Back like Newman I do think Wake Forest will be confident in their abilities to make some big plays Offensively, although the Quarter Back will have to be close to his best considering the improvements the Orange Secondary have made in recent games.

Turnovers feel like they are going to have as big an impact as they can in any game in this one. As well as Jamie Newman has played, I do think he has made a couple of mistakes which Syracuse will look to capitalise on and this has the makings of a game that could come down to which of these teams hold the ball last.

The Demon Deacons are playing with revenge having lost at home to Syracuse in the 2018 season, but this is a team who are not completely at ease on the road and also coming off wins when it comes to covering spreads. This has been a difficult season for Syracuse and you do wonder if they can motivate themselves for this game, but I think trying to finish the season at home with a fifth win that may yet be good enough for a Bowl is enough to keep them competitive.

With that in mind I will take the points in this game.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Stanford Cardinal Pick: If the Notre Dame Fighting Irish had just one loss on the season and that was the one against the Georgia Bulldogs I think they would be in the mix for a spot in the College Football PlayOff even in their position as an Independent school. Unfortunately another loss to the Michigan Wolverines is not as strong as the one to the Bulldogs and the Fighting Irish know that being a two loss team without a Championship Game is simply not going to be good enough for the Committee deciding the PlayOff top four.

The 2019 season for Notre Dame has been a lot better than the one that the Stanford Cardinal have suffered through with injuries being a big reason they are at 4-7 for the season. This is going to be the first losing record Stanford have experienced since 2008 and they had never won fewer than eight games during David Shaw's time as Head Coach.

There are some suggestions that Shaw may decide to move on at the end of this season, but Stanford won't be pushing the Head Coach who has guided them to the Pac-12 Championship Game in two of the previous four seasons.

Injuries on both sides of the ball have hurt Stanford and they are going to be in for a very difficult game Offensively in this one. Davis Mills will continue to play the Quarter Back position in place of KJ Costello, but he has played well enough for the Stanford Offense to have faith in him, although they have not played a team with the kind of Defensive unit as the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.

With struggles to run the ball with any consistency, Stanford are going to lean on the Mills arm but he is facing a Secondary which has been strong all season. The pass rush pressure up front should be able to rush Mills and bring him down a couple of times and Notre Dame might also be able to set him up for a couple of Interceptions.

I expect a lot better balance from the Notre Dame Offense during the game as they should be able to move the ball with both the ground and pound and throws from the Quarter Back. Injuries have hurt Stanford on this side of the ball too and the Defensive Line is not as strong as the one they had in 2018 so the Fighting Irish should always be ahead of the chains as long as they avoid big time Penalties.

Ian Book had a very good game against the Boston College Eagles in Week 13 and I think he can pick up from where he left off. All season the Stanford Secondary has struggled, but they have allowed 330 passing yards per game in their last three and I do think Book is going to be able to have his way with them in this game too.

The Quarter Back is well protected by his Offensive Line so he should have time to dissect the Cardinal Secondary and I think Notre Dame will be able to cover the number with the better Offense showing up on the day.

Notre Dame have some strong trends from recent games while Stanford are 2-8 against the spread in their last ten games. The Fighting Irish are 7-3 against the spread in their last ten games here too and I will back them to get the better of a big number in Week 14.

Oregon State Beavers @ Oregon Ducks Pick: Mario Cristobal has already guided the Oregon Ducks to nine wins in 2019 to match the number he achieved in his first year as Head Coach in Eugene. However the Ducks have likely lost their chance of making the College Football PlayOff after losing to the Arizona State Sun Devils in Week 13 to drop to 9-2 for the season, although they have confirmed their spot in the Pac-12 Championship Game to be played next week.

It is up to Cristobal to pick his players up after the upset to the Sun Devils but being ready to take on the Civil War against the Oregon State Beavers should be enough to motivate the home team. Some of the players will be upset that the Ducks have likely lost their chance of playing in the PlayOffs, but Oregon can win a Championship and be involved in a big Bowl Game later this year while also securing a strong end of year Ranking spot.

There is going to be plenty of motivation on the other side of the field too as the Oregon State Beavers chase the win they need to be Bowl eligible. Like Oregon, the Beavers have to pick themselves up from a devastating loss in Week 13 when they were beaten by a single point by Washington State that leaves them at 5-6 for the season.

Jonathan Smith is helping the team progress in his second year as Head Coach having more than doubled the two wins earned in 2018 and he is looking to snap their two game losing run to the Oregon Ducks.

It won't be easy for the Beavers to do that although I have to respect they have largely been competitive throughout the 2019 season. A blow out loss to the Utah Utes is the one bad result on the schedule for Oregon State, but that was in October and they are playing well behind Jake Luton at Quarter Back.

Luton is going to need to have a big game for Oregon State to earn the road upset in this Week 14 game and that is largely because the Beavers have not been able to run the ball with any consistency to ease pressure on the Quarter Back. The Offensive Line is unlikely to open too many big holes against this Oregon Defensive Line which has held teams to 3.2 yards per carry in 2019.

However the better news for Jake Luton has to be the recent play of the Ducks Secondary which has seen them give up some big plays through the air. There is still a significant pass rush that Oregon can put together which could force Luton to throw the ball quicker than he would like, and he has to be careful of avoiding Interceptions as extra possessions are going to tip the edge to Oregon by a significant margin.

Things should be a little more comfortable for Oregon when they have the ball in their hands as they have some top skill players that can make the difference for them. CJ Verdell is getting closer to cracking the 1000 yard mark on the ground and he should be able to reach the 87 yards he needs in this game and go beyond the landmark number.

Running the ball has opened things up for Justin Herbert who will be wanting to put some more good Football on the tape as scouts begin to narrow down those players they want their teams to pick up in the next NFL Draft. Herbert should be able to have a huge game against the Oregon State Secondary which has given up some massive yards throughout the season.

Interceptions have kept the Beavers from being blown out though and that is going to be the key for them in this one if they are going to upset the odds, but Oregon have been the stronger team when these teams have headed to the field in recent seasons. I do think they are the better team in this one too and Oregon will be looking to make a statement to keep themselves in with some hopes of impressing the College Football PlayOff Committee.

Oregon State do have a decent record when it comes to the spread in recent visits to Eugene and that has to be respected. I would be expecting a high-scoring game with both teams having successes, but Oregon have the better Defensive unit and I expect them to show up and ultimately help the Pac-12 North Division winners to the cover.

Texas A&M Aggies @ LSU Tigers Pick: At this stage of the season you don't really want to be opposing what looks to be the best of the SEC representatives playing in College Football. However the LSU Tigers are giving up quite a lot of points against the Texas A&M Aggies who are better than their record might suggest.

There is no doubting the Aggies have taken on one of the toughest schedules in College Football this season being a member of the SEC West and also having the National Champions Clemson on their list. Ultimately you can't ignore the fact that the Aggies have come up short, but Jimbo Fisher has made them competitive and it might be difficult for LSU to blow them out despite dominating the majority of opponents they have faced.

The Tigers don't need a flashy win to remain on course for a place in the College Football PlayOffs at the end of this season, but they simply know winning two games in a row will be enough for them. LSU had a much easier day last week than the Texas A&M Aggies who narrowly went down to a defeat to the Georgia Bulldogs, but the Tigers have not covered in their last two games since beating the Alabama Crimson Tide and I do think this could be another competitive performance from the Aggies.

Motivation is with the Tigers who were beaten in a ridiculous game that went into seven Overtimes before Texas A&M came out on top. That is clearly on the minds of the players, but LSU should know they have bigger fish to fry and just need to make sure they get into the SEC Championship Game unbeaten and with their own destiny within their controls.

LSU should be strong enough Offensively to at least have plenty of success in this one and Joe Burrow is almost certainly going as the Number 1 Overall Pick in the next NFL Draft. However this could be a bit of a challenge for the Quarter Back as the Aggies Defensive unit have really stepped up their play down the stretch and Texas A&M are going to want to match the nine wins earned in 2018 which can only happen if they win this game and their upcoming Bowl Game.

Even with the improvement in mind, I do think LSU are going to move the ball Offensively with the kind of balance they have on that side of the ball. As good as the Aggies have been, the Tigers have shown they can move the ball and score points against other top SEC Defenses they have faced and the key to the cover for the road team is going to be their performance when they have the ball in their hands.

Kellen Mond has given the Aggies some balance from the Quarter Back position and I do think the road team can have their own successes in this one. As the competition has stepped up, the Tigers Defensive Line has had one or two issues stopping drives and I do think Texas A&M can run the ball with success which will open up some passing lanes for Mond.

Even the LSU Secondary has allowed almost 275 passing yards per game across their last three games and I will look for Mond and the Aggies to move the ball and at least stay relatively close to the Tigers.

Texas A&M do not have a very good record against the LSU Tigers when it comes to the spread in recent seasons. However they have covered in losses to Clemson and Georgia this season, while only just missing out against the Alabama Crimson Tide and the chance to play spoiler can see the road team keep this one within this spread.

MY PICKS: Boise State Broncos - 14 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Georgia Bulldogs - 28 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Syracuse Orange + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish - 16.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Oregon Ducks - 19.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Texas A&M Aggies + 17 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Kansas State Wildcats + 4.5 Points @ 2.05 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Colorado Buffaloes + 28 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Oklahoma State Cowboys + 12.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Week 13: 4-3, + 0.64 Units (7 Units Staked, + 9.14% Yield)
Week 12: 6-3, + 2.53 Units (9 Units Staked, + 28.11% Yield)
Week 11: 5-3, + 1.55 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.38% Yield)
Week 10: 4-1, + 2.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 54.60% Yield)
Week 9: 2-5, - 3.18 Units (7 Units Staked, - 45.43% Yield)
Week 8: 4-4-1, - 0.47 Units (9 Units Staked, - 5.22% Yield)
Week 7: 3-3, - 0.24 Units (6 Units Staked, - 4% Yield)
Week 6: 2-5, - 3.18 Units (7 Units Staked, - 45.42% Yield)
Week 5: 6-1, + 4.40 Units (7 Units Staked, + 62.86% Yield)
Week 4: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)
Week 3: 3-5, - 2.18 Units (8 Units Staked, - 27.25% Yield)
Week 2: 5-7, - 2.57 Units (12 Units Staked, - 21.42% Yield)
Week 1: 3-2, + 0.67 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.40% Yield)

Season 2019: 50-44-1, + 1.43 Units (95 Units Staked, + 1.51% Yield)

Wednesday, 27 November 2019

NFL Week 13 Picks 2019 (November 28-December 2)

I'm sure I am not the only one who has been dealing with an illness at this time of the year, but I caught a cold that went far beyond the usual 'man flu' that can affect the body during the winter months.

It has been an illness which has made me a touch lethargic, although I am hoping I am over the worst of it now.

With Thanksgiving Day being a huge day for NFL fans, my only disappointment is that I can't partake in what has been an annual tradition with some of my best mates. Usually I will spend the evening with a friend who celebrates the day and invites us over for dinner and of course with all of the Thanksgiving Day Games on full view.

He is a Dallas Cowboys fan so loves having the chance to host us all together, but this year this stupid cold means I will have to watch with medication rather than the ice cold beer I would expect to be enjoying.

The thread is also going to be a shorter one this week because I have not really been in shape to write a few thoughts down earlier in the week. I will hopefully be back to full strength by Week 14, but it is what it is.

Looking back at Week 12 shows I came away with a 4-2 record which means another winning week for a third time in a row. I am not patting myself on the back though and instead getting back to work as I look to keep the trend going with all teams completing their Bye Weeks.

It means a busy five weeks remaining of the season as we draw closer to the NFL PlayOffs, but I won't be happy unless I can keep the wins coming. After a poor few weeks the momentum is with me, but I have yet to have the kind of week that will really begin to get this season turned around as I want.

Hopefully that can begin on Thanksgiving Day through to the rest of the Week 13 games to come this weekend.

Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions Pick: If the Chicago Bears were playing in the AFC they would feel they are still very much in the Wild Card race, but being in the NFC means they are right on the brink of elimination. That might not be an official elimination just yet, but Chicago are three games behind the Minnesota Vikings who currently hold the Number 6 Seed and at 5-6 there really is no room for error for the Bears in what has been a miserable season for them.

The off-season is likely going to be very interesting with the feeling that either Matt Nagy or Mitchell Trubisky will need to be moved on, while there may also be a reason for both of them to depart Chicago. The Bears were supposed to be a contender so being under 0.500 with two thirds of the season played is not good enough.

At least the Chicago Bears have won two of their last three games which is better than what can be said for the Detroit Lions who are 3-7-1 for the 2019 season after losing for the fourth time in a row in Week 12 at the Washington Redskins. Matt Patricia might be worrying about his role as Head Coach, but Detroit have not been helped with injuries and they could be down to their third string Quarter Back on Thanksgiving Day in the game Detroit have annually hosted.

For a long time Detroit found it very difficult to play on Thanksgiving Day, but they have been a bit better in this position in recent years. Having Matthew Stafford at Quarter Back is a big help, but injury could see his season come to an early end and the issue at the position has been compounded by Jeff Driskel's hamstring issue.

It means David Blough is being prepared for his first start in the NFL having entered the League as an undrafted Free Agent after a solid College career with the Purdue Boilermakers. The unfamiliarity of the Chicago Defense playing on a short week with little preparation for Blough could benefit the home team, but this remains one of the best Defensive units in the NFL and it is a huge test for a Quarter Back making his first start at this level.

Detroit have to put together a strong game plan to help Blough and they should have a chance if they can stick to the run even though injuries have affected the Running Back corps too. Bo Scarbrough has taken over the main Running Back duties from Kerryon Johnson and he has shown he is capable of playing at this level with a couple of big games from him.

Pounding the rock against the Chicago Bears is not easy, but they have not been as stout in their last three games on the Defensive Line as they have for much of the season. However the Bears won't have someone like Matt Stafford to worry about at Quarter Back which may mean the Linebackers edging closer to the line of scrimmage and looking to shut down Scarbrough and force Detroit to beat them through the air.

The Lions had almost 100 yards on the ground against Chicago earlier this month, but they were helped by a mobile Quarter Back and I doubt David Blough will move as well as Jeff Driskel. If Scarbrough can't pound out some big runs on the ground, Detroit will find it very difficult to throw the ball with an inexperienced Quarter Back who is going to be sitting behind a porous Offensive Line when it comes to pass protection.

Last week the Bears showed a bit of life in the pass rush and they managed to take Driskel down twice in the first game. A less mobile Quarter Back might not be able to negotiate a way around the pressure while David Blough could struggle to decipher what he is seeing in front of him and I like the Bears to be able to contain what the Lions can bring to the table.

When it comes to the spread the bigger question is about the Chicago Offensive unit which has been the main reason the team are stuck at 5-6 in 2019. Field Goal kicking remains inconsistent, but the big questions have been about Quarter Back Mitchell Trubisky as it feels him and Head Coach Matt Nagy are on different pages.

Trubisky can only blame himself for some extremely inaccurate play, but he did throw three Touchdown passes in the win over Detroit earlier this month. He also had a pretty decent game against the New York Giants once he got hot in the second half and Trubisky should be able to pick up from where he left off in that one.

The Quarter Back has not been helped by the fact that Chicago have struggled to run the ball with the decision to trade away Jordan Howard and replace him with David Montgomery not working. The Offensive Line have not played as well as last season, but the Running Backs have also been a part of that and that has not helped Trubisky, although that is no excuse for missing wide open Receivers in the passing game.

Chicago are unlikely to be able to run the ball with any consistency in this one and that could be a problem when it comes to the Detroit pass rush against a struggling Offensive Line. However Mitchell Trubisky should be able to see some spaces in the Detroit Secondary and has players who can make big catches for him to help move the chains in this one.

It is hard to trust the Bears as a big road favourite when you think of how erratic the Offense has been throughout the season, but I do think the Defensive unit can contain Detroit for a second time in 2019. If they can restrict them to 14 or fewer points again, the Bears should find enough to cover this mark.

The Lions are 0-10-1 against the spread in their last eleven Thanksgiving Day games as the underdog and in the last two seasons they have been beaten by Divisional rivals Minnesota and Chicago. Losing to the struggling Washington Redskins in Week 12 has effectively ended Detroit's season and I think Mitchell Trubiskly will be able to have a better game than David Blough to lead his team to a successful Thanksgiving Day here for the second season in a row.

Chase Daniel helped the Bears win as 3 point favourites here last season against Matt Stafford. As bad as Trubisky has been, he can lead the Bears to a win by around a Touchdown mark against inexperienced David Blough and I will look for Chicago to cover.

Buffalo Bills @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: Jerry Jones was understandably frustrated with the performance of his Dallas Cowboys in the narrow Week 12 loss at the New England Patriots and the whole Coaching staff has been put on notice. The fans have long been against Jason Garrett as the Head Coach, but Dak Prescott continues to divide opinion and Dallas are going to need a big day from the Quarter Back as they take the national spotlight on Thanksgiving Day.

A non-Conference game might not have looked that appealing when the schedule was released, particularly as it was against an AFC East team not called New England, but the Buffalo Bills have shown they mean business. The Bills moved to 8-3 in Week 12 and they are remain two games behind the Patriots in the Division, but firmly on course for a PlayOff spot through the Wild Card race.

The Dallas Cowboys are also in a PlayOff spot going into Thanksgiving Day, but things are tight in the NFC East and the feeling is that the Philadelphia Eagles have a better remaining set of games. Those two teams meet later in the season too, but Dallas will want to put some pressure on the Eagles by winning on Thursday night and moving 1.5 games clear.

It looked like the Coaching staff were getting back to basics in Week 12 as the Cowboys tried to ride Ezekiel Elliot to success, although the conditions in Foxboro had to have played some part in the game plan. Kellen Moore and Jason Garrett will do well to stick to feeding Elliot where they can in this one too even though the Dallas Offensive Line had been struggling to really get their running game on track in recent games.

If they can pick up from where they left off against New England, the Dallas Offensive Line should be able to push for a couple of big gains in this one. Ezekiel Elliot will be running up against a Buffalo Defensive Line which has allowed 4.6 yards per carry in their last three games and this might also be important to open up some passing lanes for Dak Prescott.

The numbers have remained impressive from Prescott, but the performance in Week 12 was really bad even accounting for the tough conditions. Failing to wear a glove until the second half suggests preparation could have been better, but I do think Prescott will bounce back even against a very tough Buffalo Secondary.

He won't be helped by the fact that Amari Cooper is banged up, but the likes of Randall Cobb, Michael Gallup, Blake Jarwin and Jason Witten do provide options in the passing game. Prescott has been well protected at Quarter Back so even the much respected Buffalo pass rush may not be able to get to him, although I do think the Secondary is playing well enough to at least prevent Dallas from blowing them away.

A bigger test for the Bills is going to be on the other side of the ball as people have yet to be really convinced they have enough Offensively to have a big impact in the PlayOffs. Buffalo have not really played many of the top teams in the NFL to really show who they are and Josh Allen and company are going to be challenged by an under-rated Dallas Defense.

However I do think Buffalo will be confident they can produce on the day with Allen capable of being a threat as a runner as well as a passer. Frank Gore moved to Number 3 in the all-time rushing yards list and coupled with Devin Singletary I do think the Bills can establish the run even though Dallas have a Defensive Line which can stiffen up.

Running the ball is key to just open things up for Josh Allen with the play-action and run-pass option plays key for the Quarter Back. He has a couple of decent Receivers who can have big games with John Brown playing well and Cole Beasley looking to remind his former team of his abilities.

Throwing against the Dallas Secondary is not easy, but they don't have players who will wipe out a Receiver like Buffalo do and I think that will help Josh Allen here. The Bills can come out on Thanksgiving Day looking to show the nation they are a team who are as good as the record suggests.

Buffalo have been a good road team to back and Dallas don't have a very good record against the spread when hosting a team with a winning record. The Cowboys do have a point to prove after going down to the Patriots, but they are only 2-7 against the spread in their nine Thanksgiving Day games under Jason Garrett who has to be feeling the heat.

I can see the Bills doing enough to control the clock and they can play good enough Defense to at least keep this one close so I will back the visitors with a start on the spread.

New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons Pick: If things go right this long weekend, the New Orleans Saints could confirm their position in the NFL PlayOffs which begin in January. The Saints moved to 9-2 with an important win over their nearest rivals the Carolina Panthers in Week 12 and that means they are 4 games clear in the Division with just five games left to play.

To put it simply, if the Saints win this week and the Panthers lose, New Orleans are going to be one of the six teams playing in the NFC portion of the PlayOffs.

Don't think that is the limit of the ambition of Sean Payton and his New Orleans team though as they chase the top Seed in the NFC. At 9-2 the Saints are only a game behind the San Francisco 49ers and New Orleans host them in Week 14, although I doubt that is going to be a distraction as they prepare for a Thanksgiving Day game at rivals Atlanta Falcons who actually upset the Saints just three weeks ago.

Consecutive wins for the Atlanta Falcons out of their Bye Week suggests the players are still very happy to play for Dan Quinn, but they looked pretty much like the team that has been on view for nine weeks prior to those back to back wins. The loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers dropped the Falcons to 3-8, but they will dearly love to play spoiler for New Orleans when they host the final Thanksgiving Day game of the weekend.

Austin Hooper remains on the sidelines for the Falcons, but Devonta Freeman looks set to play on Thursday and that is a huge boost for the team. Freeman might not have a huge game running the ball behind the Atlanta Offensive Line which is helping produce just 3.2 yards per carry in their last three games, but he is a huge boost for Matt Ryan as a check-down Receiver coming out of the backfield and at least slowing down some of the pass rush pressure New Orleans are expected to generate.

Matt Ryan has had nice statistical games, but those don't mean he is in top form but rather he is putting up numbers as the Falcons chase games. It is always going to be difficult playing behind a porous Offensive Line, although somehow the Falcons managed to keep him upright for the first meeting between these teams as New Orleans only produced a single Sack on the day.

Ryan does have some big time Receivers to call upon even though Marshon Lattimore looks set to give the New Orleans Secondary a boost. Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley could make some plays for the Falcons, but I expect the New Orleans Defensive unit to make a much bigger effort to slow down the Falcons than they did at home and the Saints can use their pass rush to pressure throws from the Quarter Back.

While I expect a bigger effort from the Defensive unit, I can't help but think the New Orleans Offensive output is going to be significantly better than the 9 points produced the first time they played this NFC South rival. Drew Brees did have almost 300 passing yards in the game, but he was also Sacked six times and the lack of a running game really prevented the Saints from doing what they are used to on that side of the ball.

I expect things to be different on Thanksgiving with Alvin Kamara looking healthier, although I can't ignore the fact that New Orleans have a banged up Offensive Line in play. That could lead to more Atlanta pass rush pressure, although the Sacks in the first meeting is really the exception to the rule with how they have played in 2019.

The Falcons have largely failed to bottle up the run so both Kamara and Latavius Murray should have better games, while Kamara is also a big threat catching balls out of the backfield. Atlanta's Defensive Line is allowing 4.9 yards per carry in recent games and I expect the Saints to have better success in this one, while Drew Brees should be able to find open Receivers down the field.

Michael Thomas is next to impossible to stop and I think he has another big game against the Falcons, while Brees has largely looked after the ball and should avoid the Interceptions on which the Atlanta Secondary will try and thrive.

Motivation and revenge is a big angle for New Orleans in this Week 13 game and this is a team who are 8-1 against the spread when set as the road favourite playing with revenge against a Divisional rival. Last year the Saints beat the Falcons on Thanksgiving Day by 14 points at home and they covered the spread and I think they are suitably motivated to narrowly cover again in this one.

Over the years New Orleans have tended to be much stronger at home compared with the road, but the layers look to have adjusted too far with that in mind if the 24-8 record against the spread in the last thirty-two road games the Saints have played is anything to go by. They are playing in a Dome here in Atlanta so should be very comfortable with the surroundings and I like New Orleans to cover here.

Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: Two weeks ago the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers underlined how much these two AFC North teams really don't like one another. One of the most controversial finishes to any NFL game I have ever seen saw Myles Garrett rip off Mason Rudolph's helmet and then decide to swing it out his head and that led to multiple fines for players as well as Garrett and Maurkice Pouncey suspended with both absent for this Week 13 game.

Things are going to be tense at Heinz Field and there is plenty on the line for both the Steelers and Browns who looking to be chasing the only Wild Card spot that is going to be available assuming the Buffalo Bills at 9-3 are well on the way to taking the other. The AFC North lead looks to be gone for both of these teams as the Baltimore Ravens continue their own roll and so both sets of players will be well aware of what they are playing for on Sunday.

It was the Cleveland Browns who deservedly won the Week 11 game between these teams and they have now won three in a row to get back to 5-6 while looking more like the team that we expected to see at the start of the season. The Pittsburgh Steelers will also be feeling pretty good about themselves having bounced back from that defeat to the Browns to beat the Cincinnati Bengals which keeps them above 0.500 and also means they have won five of their last six.

The Steelers have been pretty strong at home all season and they have to be respected for that, certainly more than the spread suggests considering they are bigger underdogs this time than when these teams met in Cleveland in Week 11. Part of the factor might be the decision made by Pittsburgh at Quarter Back as they give the ball to the third string Devlin Hodges in place of Rudolph who had a terrible outing against the Bengals last week.

There will be some pressure on Duck at Quarter Back because he is going to be without JuJu Smith-Schuster at Wide Receiver and James Conner is doubtful at best at Running Back. The Steelers have struggled to run the ball without Conner who has been a key figure coming out of the backfield although Benny Snell and Jaylen Samuels are capable of filling it.

A problem for the Steelers is that the Browns have clamped down on Running Backs as the Defensive Line have improved and that only means more pressure on a Quarter Back who they will want to protect as much as possible. At least Garrett's suspension just weakens the Cleveland pass rush, although even then I would imagine the Browns will be able to get the better of an Offensive Line that is missing their heartbeat in Pouncey.

All in all it makes it difficult to know how Pittsburgh will move the ball with any kind of consistency against this improving Browns Defensive unit and that means they are going to have to rely on their own Defense which has played at a strong level for much of the season.

I do think they can have success in this one too with the level the Steelers are producing, although we saw two weeks ago that the Browns can do just enough to move the chains. Nick Chubb had a strong day running the ball and him and Kareem Hunt are going to be key for the Cleveland Browns as they will be looking to pound the ball up front against what has been a pretty stiff Pittsburgh Defensive Line in recent games.

While I don't think either Running Back is going to dominate on the ground, the Browns have shown they can get those established while also having both being a big threat coming out of the backfield.

That might be the best way to get things opened up on the ground as Baker Mayfield will need a lot of help considering how well the Pittsburgh Secondary have played. Mayfield has been well protected at Quarter Back, which is key for the road team who have not been favoured here for almost thirty years, and he does have some talented Receivers who can make one or two big plays that gives Cleveland the chance to move the ball.

I do think it is going to take one or two big plays to separate these teams on the day and those are more likely to come from Baker Mayfield than Duck Hodges. There is no doubt that this spread is a bad one when you think Cleveland were a shorter favourite to win at home when these teams met two weeks ago, but I think the layers are factoring in the game manager that Pittsburgh have placed at Quarter Back.

The Browns are 4-1-1 against the spread in the last six against the Steelers and I do think they are the better team. I would not take this on if the spread moves to a full Field Goal start in favour of the home team, but I believe the Browns are able to win on the day and they should have enough to cover this mark with the skill players making one or two big plays to change the momentum in favour of the road team chasing the final Wild Card spot in the AFC.

Green Bay Packers @ New York Giants Pick: There are some real levels of excitement around the Green Bay Packers and what they may be able to achieve as they search for a return to the PlayOffs. However two losses in their last three games and both very disappointing means they have dropped to 8-3 and there is going to be work to do if the Packers are going to finish ahead of the Minnesota Vikings within the Division.

That could be the difference between hosting a PlayOff game or having to win three road games to reach the Super Bowl and the Packers are looking to recover from the manner of the loss at the San Francisco 49ers in Week 12.

Green Bay might not have been able to ask for a much better opponent than the New York Giants who have lost seven in a row and are looking for a high Draft Pick to help change the culture of the team. Daniel Jones has become the starting Quarter Back for the team having taken over from Eli Manning and there have been flashes of what he can bring to them, although injuries and a lack of talent on the Defensive unit have hurt them.

The Giants are due to face their NFC East rivals Philadelphia next, but that is on Monday Night Football and I think the full focus can be on this home game after narrowly losing to the Chicago Bears in Week 12. New York have to find more consistency when they have the ball in their hands, but the Receiving corps look a little healthier than a couple of weeks ago and the Giants can get Saquon Barkley back on track even if the Running Back is far from at 100%.

Barkley has not enjoyed much success of late, but the Packers have struggled to stop the run and it might be as good a chance to get back on track as the star Back can ask for. You could think the Packers will look to make sure they contain Barkley and force Daniel Jones to beat them through the air, but the Secondary play has been far from ideal and Green Bay have to be a lot better all around to earn a success out of this fixture.

One area where Green Bay should be able to thrive is with their pass rush and I would expect them to get after Jones if he is in obvious passing situations. If Barkley is a little banged up, the Packers should at least force some errant throws from the Giants Quarter Back and at least give their team a chance of stalling some drives.

There will be one or two concerns with how the Green Bay Defensive unit have been playing, but perhaps even more about the Offensive side of the ball. Despite having Aaron Rodgers at Quarter Back and with injuries clearing up on the Receiving unit, the Packers have been held to 11 points or fewer in the two losses suffered in the last three games and that is simply not what is expected with the talent available to them.

I would imagine Green Bay can get back on track against the New York Giants who have struggled Defensively throughout 2019. They have shown improvements on the Defensive Line when it comes to defending the run, but I don't think the Giants will be able to completely erase Aaron Jones who is also a big threat catching the ball out of the backfield.

The holes in the Secondary are much more clear to see and I do think Rodgers and company will have a chance for a much better passing game than what we saw against the 49ers. The Giants have not really been able to generate a consistent pass rush and that should mean Rodgers gets a bit more time than he has enjoyed in his defeats and the Packers can bounce back with a big win on the road.

This is a big number, but New York are just 5-15-1 against the spread in their last twenty-one home games. Backing a top Quarter Back off a loss is never a bad position to be in either and Green Bay have covered in their last four games following a loss too.

Green Bay can't afford to drop another game with the Vikings breathing down their necks and I think we see a much more complete effort as they take this one by around a Touchdown on the road.

Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: The most open Division in the NFL might be the AFC South which has one game separating their top three teams while all of those are still involved in the PlayOff race via the Wild Cards too.

In Week 13 two of those teams meet when the 6-5 Indianapolis Colts host the 6-5 Tennessee Titans. The game might be a bigger one for the Titans because they have already dropped the first game between these teams and would have a difficult mountain to climb if they lose the tie-breaker for any Wild Card spot, while the Colts are trying to avoid back to back losses to a Divisional rival having been beaten on Thursday Night Football by the Houston Texans in Week 12.

There is no doubt the momentum is with the Titans who have won four of their last five games to get back into contention in the AFC. On the other hand Indianapolis have lost three of their last four games and that might be a factor in the home team being favoured by less than a Field Goal.

Another might be the absence of TY Hilton which removes the biggest Receiving threat the Colts bring to the table, but we have seen the team become a run first one anyway. Marlon Mack is out, but Jonathan Williams filled in admirably in the loss to the Texans and that was a much tougher match up on paper for the Colts Offensive Line when it comes to trying to establish the run.

As much as we know Mike Vrabel wants his Titans team to be tough in the trenches on both sides of the ball, the Tennessee Defensive Line have been far from a strength up front in recent games. On the other hand Indianapolis have shown they like pushing teams around and I think Williams and the Running Backs will have a strong day for a team averaging 5.3 yards per carry in their last three games.

That will just make life easier for Jacoby Brissett at Quarter Back even though his passing numbers have been far from strong in recent games. Brissett hasn't needed to do a lot, but I think he can make plays from third and manageable spots against a Titans Secondary almost averaging 300 passing yards against them in recent games.

I don't expect Brissett to be dealing with a lot of pass rush pressure and so the Colts have every chance of having a successful Offensive outing even without some key skill players.

Tennessee will believe they can also have a big day running the ball like they have been in their last few games, especially with Derrick Henry once again looking to come into his own in December. The Titans Offensive Line have racked up some big numbers against teams who are perhaps not that strong when it comes to stopping the run, but that is not the case in this game against a Cols Defensive Line which has improved thanks to important injuries clearing up.

Stopping the run might be the key to slowing down the Tennessee Offense which looks to have come alive with Ryan Tannehill at Quarter Back in place of Marcus Mariota. If the Colts can at least play as they have been, they will feel they can contain Henry and at least force Tannehill to beat them through the air while also being able to unleash their pass rush whenever the Titans are in third and long spots.

In reality Tannehill should be able to make some plays too as he continues his fine form at Quarter Back for his new team. The Indianapolis Secondary isn't a bad one, but Tannehill has some decent Receivers and he seems to have found a chemistry with them which should produce some successful drives.

However it is the potential of the Indianapolis pass rush and the expected better balance of the home team on the Offensive side of the ball which should make the difference for them.

The Colts are 7-1 against the spread in their last eight home games against Tennessee and they are 40-19 against the spread in their last fifty-nine games following a loss. They are a well Coached team and I think that is going to be key for Indianapolis who have had a few extra days off to recover and prepare for this game.

Indianapolis have also covered in their last seven against their Divisional rivals and I will look for the Colts to cover in this one.

Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: The AFC West is down to a two horse race and it is the chance for the Kansas City Chiefs to take complete control of the Division and a big step towards the PlayOffs. They are currently a game clear of the Oakland Raiders and can complete the double over Oakland which effectively means having a three game lead with four games left to play.

No one associated with the Chiefs will underestimate the importance of this game, especially not with the New England Patriots in Foxboro up next. At 7-4 the Chiefs look in a good position to make the PlayOffs, but back to back losses would certainly change the picture considerably and that won't be lost on anyone with the Chiefs set to come off a Bye Week.

While the Chiefs were resting, the Oakland Raiders missed a big chance to move alongside them at 7-4 when laying an egg in the blow out loss to the New York Jets in Week 12. Dropping back to 6-5 means the Raiders are right in the middle of a Wild Card battle in the AFC and another loss will be a blow for Jon Gruden and his men who have overachieved so far this season and look to have a manageable end to the season following this game.

Everyone will be looking for a reaction in the Oakland camp when they visit their AFC West rivals. The entire Offense have to play better than they did in New York last week, but there is a feeling that they can do that especially if the Kansas City Chiefs have not got things right on the Defensive side of the ball.

The big flaw in the Kansas City Defensive scheme is an inability to stop the run and this suits opponents both in terms of being able to move the chains and managing the clock while also cooling down Patrick Mahomes on the sidelines for long stretches. For much of the season the Raiders have been able to run the ball well enough and they will be looking for a big all around game from Josh Jacobs who is set to become the first 1000 yard rookie rusher in their history.

Jacobs will need to establish the run to just ease the pressure on Derek Carr at Quarter Back. While Carr has had a very good season, it is clear that he needs the run game to support him and it will be key to easing up any Kansas City pass rush pressure that is generated. The Secondary have not really been tested as teams have been able to run the ball as easily as they have, but the Chiefs are far from a team who are expected to shut down the pass and I think Carr has enough weapons in the passing game to have some success.

The Raiders will feel they can move the chains in this one with that in mind, but they don't really want to be involved in a shoot out with an Offensive power like the Chiefs. Damien Williams is going to be missing at Running Back, but the Chiefs should be able to rip off some big yards on the ground and that is only going to make Patrick Mahomes' life that much easier when it comes to throwing the ball.

The last few games have seen the Oakland Raiders have seen the Secondary step up their play, but I also think that is partly down to the struggles to contain the run. We all know that Andy Reid is not someone who is going to want to run the ball over and over, but his Chiefs team can make some big plays on the ground and will also use their Running Backs in screens and check downs to really keep the Offensive unit moving.

It opens things up for the big play that Reid and Mahomes want to dial up and the availability of Tyreek Hill is very important to them. Sammy Watkins is also going to be involved and Mahomes is a capable runner when it comes to the pocket breaking down so I can't help but think he is going to have a big game here.

Kansas City beat Oakland by 18 points on the road earlier this season and Andy Reid has long been one of the most successful Head Coaches when coming out of a Bye Week. The Chiefs are also 5-1 against the spread in their last six home games against the Oakland Raiders and they have dominated their AFC West rivals in recent games too.

Jon Gruden does have his Oakland team playing hard and they can't be anything near as bad as they were in the loss to the Jets last week. They have been a team who can bounce back from losses, but I think a focused Chiefs team come out of their Bye Week and put a statement win on the board against their closest rival in the Division.

New England Patriots @ Houston Texans Pick: Over recent years the New England Patriots have regularly reminded the Houston Texans how much work still needs to be done to compete with the very best of the Conference. Surprisingly this game was not flexed out of the Sunday Night Football slot in favour of the Baltimore Ravens versus the San Francisco 49ers, but this is a good game in its own right although the Patriots head into it as the road favourite.

If the PlayOffs were to start today both the Texans and Patriots would be taking part after the big win Houston had over the Indianapolis Colts in Week 12. That has given them the sole lead in the AFC South, although there is much work to be done over the final five weeks for Houston to earn a post-season spot.

Things are much more comfortable for New England who are almost certainly going to be playing in the PlayOffs, although you wouldn't guess by some of the body language of players after wins. Ultimately that is the kind of standard New England set for themselves and there is plenty of motivation for them over the last five games as they look to hold off the Buffalo Bills in the AFC East and, perhaps more importantly, the Baltimore Ravens for the Number 1 Seed in the Conference.

It means they can't afford to overlook any opponent after the Ravens secured the tie-breaker with a blow out win over New England at home. The Patriots have the Texans this week and the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 14 which could also be a chance to lay down a marker for the PlayOffs and Tom Brady and company won't be heading to the south for anything but another win.

The Patriots have won eight in a row against Houston since 2012, but there are some concerns about them that need to be fixed this week. Offensively there are major question marks about the team and Tom Brady has not always looked like he is at 100% which is going to make earning some rest at the end of December and early January important to the Patriots.

Last week the conditions in Foxboro meant having to lean on the running game, but New England might make a decision to use the run more this week of their own accord. As good as the Texans have been up front for much of the 2019 season, injuries on the Defensive Line may just have weakened them and last week the Indianapolis Colts bullied them with their backup Running Back having plenty of success.

New England have not been as strong running the ball as Indianapolis, but I do think they will be looking to establish the run to open things up for Brady. As long as the Patriots don't fall massively behind the chains I think Brady will be happy with the down and distance, especially as the Houston pass rush has not been as effective since JJ Watt went down with an injury.

Tom Brady doesn't have the consistent Receiving threat of previous seasons, but there are enough playmakers to believe they can have some success in this one. However there is no doubt the main role of the Offensive unit is to make sure they don't lose the game and there will be a new Kicker in town which means they will rely on the Defensive unit as much as they have throughout 2019.

The New England Defense is playing as well as any in the NFL, although I am not putting them up there with historic Defensive units just yet. One of the weaker ares of the Patriots is the Defensive Line when it comes to stopping the run and you just know Houston are going to want to pound the rock with Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson.

I would expect Houston be able to rip off some big gains, but they have to avoid penalties or getting behind the chains in down and distance. Both Hyde and Johnson have been able to rip off some big gains, but they have not always been as consistent as the Texans would like and I imagine Bill Belichick and his coaching staff will have spent the week trying to work out the best way to stop Houston from winning in the trenches.

That is no disrespect to Deshaun Watson at Quarter Back, but the Patriots will know he is playing behind a vulnerable Offensive Line when it comes to pass protection. Stephon Gilmore is one of the best Corner Backs in the NFL and he will be looking to follow DeAndre Hopkins around the field so the Patriots will be looking to make Houston rely on the pass to beat them in this game.

As good as Watson is and is going to be in the NFL, I do think he can be rattled by the pressure that a team like New England can bring. With the better Coaching likely to be coming from the visiting sideline, I do think Houston are going to have a difficult day in trying to snap their losing run to New England.

Houston have had a few more days to prepare for this game after playing on Thursday Night Football in Week 12, but that might not be enough for a team who are just 1-5 against the spread in their last six home games. New England have played well enough on the road and I think Bill Belichick out-coaches Bill O'Brien in a good looking game to be played on Sunday Night Football.

MY PICKS: Chicago Bears - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Buffalo Bills + 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Cleveland Browns - 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Indianapolis Colts - 1 Point @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Kansas City Chiefs - 10.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
New England Patriots - 3 Points @ 1.86 Coral (2 Units)

Week 12: 4-2, + 3.20 Units (12 Units Staked, + 26.67% Yield)
Week 114-3-1, + 1.48 Units (16 Units Staked, + 9.25% Yield)
Week 104-3, + 1.10 Units (14 Units Staked, + 7.86% Yield)
Week 94-4, - 0.64 Units (16 Units Staked, - 4% Yield)
Week 82-4, - 4.20 Units (12 Units Staked, - 35% Yield)
Week 72-4, - 4.10 Units (12 Units Staked, - 34.17% Yield)
Week 66-3, + 4.84 Units (18 Units Staked, + 26.89% Yield)
Week 54-5, - 2.72 Units (18 Units Staked, - 15.11% Yield)
Week 43-6, - 6.54 Units (18 Units Staked, - 36.33% Yield)
Week 35-2, + 3.28 Units (12 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)
Week 23-4, - 2.70 Units (14 Units Staked, - 19.29% Yield)
Week 14-4, + 0.16 Units (15 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

Season 201945-44-1, - 6.84 Units (177 Units Staked, - 3.86% Yield)