There is little chance of Djokovic overlooking Thiem considering the latter has also won a title since the end of the US Open and got the better of Roger Federer in his opening Group match. He has yet to reach the Semi Final at the World Tour Finals in three previous appearances at the tournament, but Thiem has to be favoured to get through to the next Round having put a straight sets win over Federer on the board.
Last year Thiem did win his first match in London before losing two Group matches to exit the tournament so he will have to be focused and not think the job is done. The win over Federer was a very good one, but Dominic Thiem could easily have lost on the day and he is going to need to be a lot better if he is going to beat an in-form Novak Djokovic.
The performances from Djokovic since the US Open have been really impressive and shows a man on a mission as he looks to climb ahead of Rafael Nadal in the World Rankings. He only lost three games in dismissing Matteo Berrettini, but Djokovic has split two matches with Thiem this season which includes losing to the Austrian in a five set classic at the French Open back in June.
In fact Thiem has won three of the last four matches played between these players and that is going to give the underdog some confidence. However all of those matches have been played on the clay courts which is the best surface for Dominic Thiem to play on and he has lost all three previous matches on the hard courts between these players.
One of those matches was played here in London and Djokovic has dominated the numbers in those three wins, but it has been a long time since these two met on this surface. I do give Djokovic the edge here and you have to factor in the physical and emotional effort that Dominic Thiem had to use in order to win his first Group match.
This is a big spread on the face of things and especially if Thiem is ramping up his confidence after a big win. However Novak Djokovic is playing at a pretty incredible level at the moment and I do think he will be the fresher of the two players which should play the part in helping the Serb win and cover.
Novak Djokovic - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
ATP Finals Update: 2-2, - 0.80 Units (8 Units Staked, - 10% Yield)