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Thursday 31 August 2023

US Open Tennis Day 5 Picks 2023 (September 1st)

The entirety of the Second Round was pathetically bad for the Tennis Picks, but it also should be said that there is not a lot you can do when players are giving away breaks of serve as easily as they were in that Round.

It happens in the two weeks of any Grand Slam, but does mean there is considerable work to do to turn things back around after a tough couple of days.

On Friday, Day 5, the US Open moves into the Third Round and there should be fewer excuses for players who should be very comfortable in the conditions. However, it is also the time of the tournament when matches get tougher as places in the second week are up for grabs.

This year there have been plenty of upsets through the first four days which means a number of unfamiliar names will be taking part in the Third Round, but that also means there are opportunities available to those players to really make a solid breakthrough on the Tour.


Zhizhen Zhang - 2.5 games v Rinky Hijikata: An opportunity to reach the second week of a Grand Slam is a huge boost for these two players who have worked their way through the draw and will certainly feel this is a winnable match.

The hard work has been done by Zhizhen Zhang who has beaten two higher Ranked opponents, including beating a top five Seed and last year's Runner Up Casper Ruud. That has opened up the section of the draw, but Zhang will be keen to back up the performance in the Second Round, although there has to be a little bit of concern that he has needed five sets in both wins at the US Open.

A day of rest is important, but there will be plenty of emotion spent in beating Casper Ruud and the key for Zhizhen Zhang is recovering and not allowing the headlines made to distract him ahead of this Third Round match. He has a solid all around hard court game, but Zhang has not found the kind of consistency he has shown in this tournament and so there is plenty of hard work to do if he is going to keep the run going.

This is a player that has always had some confidence in his serving, but Zhizhen Zhang has returned much better than usual in his two wins here. Maintaining those levels might be difficult, but the match up with Rinky Hijikata should be one that Zhang is confident in dealing with too.

A win over the World Number 98 was followed by beating the shell of Marton Fucsovics in the Second Round, but the latter win will have given Rinky Hijikata some belief in his abilities. He looks like he will crack the top 100 of the World Rankings for the first time at the end of this tournament, but this is a player that only had a 2-8 record against top 100 Ranked opponents on the hard courts before the US Open began and so it is still hard to believe in Hijikata's tennis being good enough to win a match like this one.

So much will depend on how well Zhizhen Zhang has recovered from the two wins he has had this week, but he is young enough to believe that he will have much more in the tank that Marton Fucsovics offered in the Second Round loss to Rinky Hijikata.

These two have met on the hard courts earlier this season and Zhizhen Zhang was a pretty confident winner, even if he needed the full three sets to earn the victory. His serve proved to be a difference maker in that contest and the feeling is that the improved return shown in the tournament will put Rinky Hijikata under more pressure this time.

He has shown he can come through tough five setters, but the feeling is that Zhang will be able to close the show a little sooner than that and the 26 year old can reach the second week at a Grand Slam for the first time.


Tommy Paul v Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: Before last year, Tommy Paul had suffered four consecutive First Round defeats before a run to the Third Round in 2022, but it looked like being another short stay at the US Open as he fell two sets down to a hot hitting Roman Safiullon in the Second Round on Wednesday.

Coming back from two sets down is a challenge for any player on the Tour, but Tommy Paul bit down on the gum-shield and he was not only able to weather the storm in turning things completely around. It can be difficult to recover from a five set win emotionally, but the good news for fans of the American is that he was not on the court for as long as some five setters can last.

It should mean Tommy Paul is able to find the time to recover ahead of the Third Round match and he is looking for his best run at the US Open several months after surprisingly reaching the Semi Final at the Australian Open.

That run included a five set win over Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the Second Round and the Spaniard is once again standing on the other side of the net after winning all six sets played at the US Open this week.

When they met in Melbourne, it was Alejandro Davidovich Fokina who was slightly higher in the World Rankings compared with Tommy Paul, although it also meant he was the Seeded player. Both are Seeded here at the US Open, but Tommy Paul is the higher Ranked player and he will take plenty of heart out of the fact that he has beaten Alejandro Davidovich Fokina twice this season and both on the hard courts.

Both matches have been competitive, but Paul has been the slightly superior server and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is someone that is liable to throwing in a poor period within matches. He is very talented and Davidovich Fokina is never going to allow someone to take complete control of matches and that has been seen in his Grand Slam losses as he has pushed some of the best players on the Tour.

He will be looking to drag Tommy Paul into a long, drawn out scrap and see whether he can 'outlast' the American, but Paul looks like someone who has worked on his fitness and has to be inspired by what he produced in the Second Round.

There really has not been much between the players in terms of the numbers on the hard courts over the course of the 2023 season and they have had similar performances when facing the top 50 Ranked opponents. Tommy Paul has a winning record in those matches (11-8), while Davidovich Fokina does not (8-9), while the two wins Tommy Paul holds in the head to head has to give him a mental boost.

Another five setter as we saw in Melbourne when these two players faced off cannot be ruled out, but Tommy Paul's serving might just pave the way to make the difference for him.


Caroline Wozniacki v Jennifer Brady: For different reasons, both of these players have only recently returned to the Tour and the run to the Third Round of the US Open is perhaps a little unexpected for both Caroline Wozniacki and Jennifer Brady.

Caroline Wozniacki is back from retiring from the sport, and after becoming a mother twice, but at 33 years old she still feels she has something to offer. A former World Number 1 and Grand Slam Champion, most believe the Dane is returning to try and reach the top rather than playing for the enjoyment of the sport and Caroline Wozniacki has perhaps accepted that she may not get back to her best until 2024 with a few tournaments under her belt.

She played well enough to win her first two matches at the US Open, including an upset of veteran Petra Kvitova, but Caroline Wozniacki perhaps has nothing to lose having compiled a 1-2 record in the warm up events. Caroline Wozniacki has been off the Tour since the end of the Australian Open in 2020, but she has served pretty well in her first two wins here and that will give her confidence, especially as Wozniacki looked good at the end of both wins.

Jennifer Brady is also making a comeback after injury kept her away from the courts since August 2021 and the former US Open Semi Finalist and Australian Open Finalist had a 3-4 record in her return before also picking up two wins at Flushing Meadows. The second of those wins was a bit more taxing with Brady needing to spend over two hours on the court to beat Seeded Magda Linette in three sets and there were perhaps one or two signs of fatigue as Brady tried to see out the match in the deciding set.

The American has an aggressive style of tennis and she is likely going to get after the Caroline Wozniacki serve and especially when she sees the second serve. That is going to put Wozniacki under pressure, but so much of Jennifer Brady's game is based around how well she is serving and it is a shot that has not been quite at its best.

It should give Caroline Wozniacki a chance to get a few more balls back in play and she can frustrate the big hitter as she did to Petra Kvitova at key moments throughout that Second Round match. This has long been a strength of the Wozniacki game and the Dane looks to have a bit more in the tank compared with Jennifer Brady right now, which could prove to be the difference on the day.

While the only Grand Slam title was won in Australia, it could be argued that Caroline Wozniacki's best results were right here in New York City having twice finished Runner Up and reached three other Semi Finals. She did only reach the second week of one Grand Slam after winning the Australian Open title in 2018, but Caroline Wozniacki can make some early headlines by doing that in her return to the Tour.

MY PICKS: Zhizhen Zhang - 2.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Tommy Paul @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Caroline Wozniacki @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Frances Tiafoe - 1.5 Sets @ 1.57 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ben Shelton - 1.5 Sets @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Borna Gojo - 1.5 Sets @ 1.66 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Elena Rybakina - 4.5 Games @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Belinda Bencic - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Karolina Muchova - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

US Open Update: 14-19, - 15.12 Units (66 Units Staked, - 22.91% Yield)

US Open Tennis Day 4 Picks 2023 (August 31st)

It might just be that poor days at the US Open are remembered much more than other tournaments, but it really feels the final Grand Slam of the season can have those days where every top player performs much lower than their overall season record would indicate.

Poor decisions, poor execution and just overall rubbish tennis will be played at the same time as unheralded players put together their very best and ultimately it becomes a day of the dog.

Day 3 at the US Open felt like that with just topsy-turvy results and performances all around the grounds and it can be frustrating to watch.

You have to believe things will settle down, but the hope is that Day 4 and the conclusion of the Second Round matches brings much stronger results back to us.


Looking back at the Day 3 Picks, you cannot help but feel a little disappointed by what occurred.

Top players losing leads and being upset is not something you would expect to see too often, a retirement in a match where the selection was winning, and players waiting too long to turn things around have contributed to a really poor day in the office.

Bouncing back this week is the key so it is possible to attack the second week of the final Grand Slam of the season, but it would also be welcomed to see players follow through with any momentum they can build up through Day 4 as the Second Round is completed.


Carlos Alcaraz - 7.5 games v Lloyd Harris: Bad luck cost his First Round opponent any chance of upsetting the defending Champion, but it was long odds against Dominik Koepfer even if he had been fully healthy to compete for two or three hours on the court.

The benefit for Carlos Alcaraz is not having to tax himself too much early in the defence of the US Open title picked up last year, but the top Seed will likely have appreciated an hour on the courts to see how the conditions are compared with last year. He will be expecting to be placed in the Night Session on Arthur Ashe a few more times in this tournament and Alcaraz looks more than capable of having another very deep run in New York City.

Matches will get tougher as the tournament progresses, but Carlos Alcaraz is going to be a strong favourite to beat a player like Lloyd Harris in the Second Round of the tournament.

The big serving South African player has not had the most productive season on the Tour and he has really had difficulties stepping up to face top 100 Ranked opponents throughout 2023. Injuries also haven't helped Lloyd Harris who has slipped down to World Number 177 after being as high as Number 31 just two years ago.

Lloyd Harris will be aware that this match is only going to be competitive if he can bring his best serving day onto the court. That certainly helped him beat Guido Pella in straight sets in the First Round, but Carlos Alcaraz is a much stronger opponent and one that is capable of getting back plenty of returns and neutralising the immediate weapon of Harris and forcing him to try and beat the Spaniard on the ground.

The second serve is likely going to be a shot that Carlos Alcaraz looks to attack and his own serve is one that should largely keep Lloyd Harris at bay with the former considerably stronger on the ground.

The last five times Lloyd Harris has played top 10 Ranked opponents on the hard courts have ended in defeat for the underdog, and that was at a time when his tennis had taken him into the top 50 of the World Rankings. There has been little encouragement in Harris' build up form towards the US Open, while he has not exactly gotten back to his best even when entering Challenger events to rebuild the confidence.

His serve makes him potentially an awkward Second Round opponent, but Carlos Alcaraz is a perfect 9-0 on the hard courts in 2023 when facing those Ranked outside of the top 20. His numbers in those matches are very impressive behind both serve and return and it feels like a match in which Lloyd Harris could potentially melt away under the constant pressure the top Seed will bring.


Arthur Fils - 1.5 sets v Matteo Arnaldi: At 19 years old there are plenty of learning experiences for players to go through on the Tour and winning a five set match and then recovering to play in the next Round is the lesson that Arthur Fils will be learning this week in New York City.

The young Frenchman looks to have a bright future ahead of him having cracked the top 50 in the World Rankings and Arthur Fils has impressed already. He showed character in fighting back from 2-1 down in sets to beat Tallon Griekspoor in the First Round and that has opened up this section of the draw with that victory being over a Seeded player.

Of course it is hard to ignore the almost four hours spent on the court, although the conditions in New York City have not been as hot as it can be and that should help.

Arthur Fils deserved to win, but it was a tight, competitive match and a far cry from Matteo Arnaldi's experience having earned a First Round victory when his opponent retired just ten games into the match. While the likes of Lorenzo Musetti and Jannik Sinner look to be the future of Italian Tennis, Matteo Arnaldi has quietly climbed into his own career best World Ranking and at 22 years old he has a bright future in the sport too.

Like many from his part of Europe, Matteo Arnaldi has had his best results on the clay courts, but his hard court numbers are not to be dismissed. Matteo Arnaldi won a title at Challenger level on the surface this year, but it should also be noted that he had lost all five matches against top 100 Ranked players on the hard courts before Jason Kubler's retirement in the First Round.

In those defeats, Matteo Arnaldi has seen his serve attacked and the return has been an issue and it is expected to be the case against Arthur Fils, assuming the higher Ranked player has been given the right advice to get himself ready for this match.

The Frenchman has played well against those not Ranked inside the top 20 on the hard courts in 2023 and his numbers have been impressive in those matches. Unlike Arnaldi, Arthur Fils has found a way to get plenty out of his serve on the hard courts and he has also had a significant edge when it comes to the return, which should show up in this Second Round match.

After a tough win in the First Round, Arthur Fils is expected to have a more routine progress into the Third Round by backing up the victory over Seeded Tallon Griekspoor.


Cameron Norrie - 7.5 games v Yu Hsiou Hsu: A strong run to the Wimbledon Semi Final in 2022 would have given Cameron Norrie a huge amount of confidence and he was soon to enter the top 10 despite having earned no World Rankings for that run.

However, the top British player has not really been able to back up that Grand Slam performance in subsequent Slams and Cameron Norrie has not made the second week at any of the three Grand Slams played in 2023. He will be looking to change that in New York City and was a very strong winner in the First Round, while most will be expecting him to cruise past an opponent who is outside of the top 200 of the World Rankings and has a career high of Number 186.

That did not stop Yu Hsiou Hsu from upsetting Thanasi Kokkinakis in the First Round and any player that has won three Qualifiers to earn a place in the main draw has to be given a lot of respect.

Even then, it is a big task for Hsu to close the gap to someone who is just outside the top 10, especially with the lack of experience the 23 year old has in playing opponents of this level. He did face someone of a similar level after Qualifying for the Australian Open, but Yu Hsiou Hsu was well beaten by Alex de Minaur in the First Round in Melbourne and backing up his opening upset is a huge challenge.

Before the win in the First Round, Yu Hsiou Hsu had lost all three hard court matches he had ever played against top 100 Ranked opponents and he had not won a single set in those defeats. He did serve really well to beat Thanasi Kokkinakis, but that is a surprise considering Hsu has only won 58% of his service games and held 69% of service games played on the hard courts prior to the US Open Qualifiers beginning.

To really have those numbers stand out, it has to be noted that most of those matches would have been played against players Ranked outside the top 100 and so it feels like this is a Second Round match that should be played on Cameron Norrie's terms.

Yu Hsiou Hsu has a decent return, but will be dealing with a lefty serve that can be very productive for Cameron Norrie. The underdog was also just 2-7 in his last nine hard court matches before winning four matches at the US Open and the feeling is that Cameron Norrie is going to have Hsu under pressure on his own serve and ultimately can break down and cover a big line against this level of opponent.

Cameron Norrie has won his last ten Grand Slam matches against players Ranked outside of the top 100 in the World Rankings and three of those have been on the hard courts of Melbourne or New York City. In those, Norrie would have covered this mark in each of the last two wins and he can do the same here to back up a strong First Round win.


Alexander Zverev - 7.5 games v Daniel Altmaier: Two compatriots meet in the Second Round at the US Open and so there will be a familiarity about the tennis the opponent is expected to bring onto the court from both sides of the net.

A former US Open Runner Up, Alexander Zverev will likely be quite content with moving under the radar in the tough top half of the draw. He has moved back into a position where he is likely to return to the top 10 of the World Rankings at the end of the tournament and Alexander Zverev is very much in the race to reach the ATP World Tour Finals.

After a seriously worrying injury at the French Open in 2022, Alexander Zverev returned to action at the beginning of this season and his year can be split with the French Open of 2023 being the breaker. Before that, Zverev had been struggling to reach the kind of heights he had been used to doing, but his run to the Semi Final in Paris has sparked a very strong three months and the former World Number 2 is operating at a high level.

We still have room for improvement on the hard courts, but Alexander Zverev was a comfortable winner in the First Round and this could be a decent opponent for him in the Second Round.

That is not being disrespectful to Daniel Altmaier, but he has played his best tennis by some margin on the clay courts and is largely an average hard court player. At his best he can ride the margins to become dangerous, as we saw at the US Open last year when Altmaier pushed Jannik Sinner to five sets, but this is a player who has a relatively weak return on the surface and that does put his serve under pressure.

It says plenty that Daniel Altmaier has lost eight of his nine hard court matches played against top 100 Ranked opponents this season and he has broken in just 9% of return games played in those matches. This has allowed opponents to dig in and put him under pressure through the scoreboard and Daniel Altmaier has held 78% of his service games on the surface, something that Alexander Zverev will look to exploit.

Alexander Zverev has been serving well in the two Masters events played ahead of the US Open and that is impressive considering the lowest Ranked opponent he faced in Canada or Cincinnati was World Number 45.

When these two players met at the Australian Open in January 2022, Alexander Zverev really dominated behind his serve with 73% of points won and he held 93% of the service games played. He won 7-6, 6-1, 7-6 on the day, but that was down to the fact that Daniel Altmaier was able to save fourteen of eighteen Break Points faced.

Even then, Zverev won 44% of the return points played and the feeling is that he is playing closer to his best right now compared with earlier in the season to really put Daniel Altmaier in a tough position. Alexander Zverev can win this one in straight sets and he may find the breaks of serve to cover what looks a big line, but one he can get the better of on current form of the two players in this Second Round match.


Quick Thoughts on Other Selections: You have to believe that Stan Wawrinka can move through another Round against a Seeded player that he beat on the grass courts of Wimbledon, a surface that the Swiss player does not massively enjoy. He has been in decent hard court form and Tomas Martin Etcheverry has not, which was highlighted by a tougher than expected First Round win.

Jannik Sinner looks a real threat to the 'dream Final' that fans are hoping for and he was a dominant First Round winner- while you expect this to be closer against compatriot Lorenzo Sonego, the Sinner return could put the lower Ranked Italian under considerable pressure and especially if Sonego continues to struggle with his own return as has been the case on the hard courts this year.

There are always young American players looking to breakthrough during the various US swings on the Tour and Alex Michelsen looks to have a bright future, although beating Nicolas Jarry might be too soon. The latter has the big game that is well suited to the hard courts and can move through without needing a deciding set.

MY PICKS: Carlos Alcaraz - 7.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Arthur Fils - 1.5 Sets @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Cameron Norrie - 7.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 7.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka - 1.5 Sets @ 1.66 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jannik Sinner - 6.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Nicolas Jarry - 1.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alex De Minaur - 5.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Hubert Hurkacz - 1.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Greet Minnen - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

US Open Update: 8-13, - 13.64 Units (42 Units Staked, - 32.48% Yield)

Wednesday 30 August 2023

US Open Tennis Day 3 Picks 2023 (August 30th)

The first two days at the US Open has seen a number of upsets and the crowd once again playing their part in getting on top of players when they feel they have someone rattled.

Even then, it is sad to see veterans like Laura Siegemund feel like they are not being respected as they should be by the fans arriving to watch the tennis and it is little surprise that so many players do not enjoy this atmosphere compared to much more serene events throughout the course of the year.

Personally the US Open has been a Slam I have really enjoyed and two previous visits to the ground have been enjoyable.

Sometimes it might pay to take the Daniil Medvedev approach to the crowd, but it can be difficult for those with different personalities.


Moving into the Second Round on Day 3 at the tournament should mean players are a little more accustomed to the conditions and the atmosphere that will have to be dealt with.

Some top names will be out on the courts on Wednesday and it is also a day when there are a lot more selections compared with the first couple of days of the tournament.


Mackenzie McDonald - 1.5 sets v Borna Gojo: On paper it may have felt like a significant upset, but there were plenty of people who called for Mackenzie McDonald to upset the out of form Felix Auger-Aliassime in the First Round at the US Open. It was a result that was also expected here, but the price was plenty short considering McDonald had to withdraw during his last match in Cincinnati.

After solid runs in both Canada and Cincinnati, Mackenzie McDonald must have been a little bit frustrated that he may not have been at full health going into the US Open. While all credit has to be given to him for the four set win over Auger-Aliassime, there are still one or two questions about the McDonald overall level of fitness and the feeling is that the oddsmakers are not entirely sure either.

A competent hard court player, Mackenzie McDonald played the big points well in the First Round, although it should also be noted that he had to fend of twelve Break Points, which is a total number higher than the overall number of Break Points the American created on the day.

The serve can be vulnerable at times, but McDonald does have an 11-2 record on the hard courts against players Ranked outside the top 50, while he has won 65% of points played behind serve and held onto almost 85% of service games played in those thirteen matches.

It will give the home fans some confidence that this American player can make it through to the US Open Third Round, although Borna Gojo will need to be respected having worked his way through the Qualifiers. Much like Mackenzie McDonald, Borna Gojo will have been pleased with the way the early draw has shaped up for him and he has not had to beat any opponent Ranked higher than World Number 121 in his four wins in New York City.

Winning does give players momentum though and the Croatian has a serve that can help out of difficult situations, which is always a boost. However, Borna Gojo has not cracked the top 100 in his career and this should be a much tougher test than he has faced so far at the US Open, as long as Mackenzie McDonald is good to go.

Borna Gojo has yet to really get to grips with facing top 100 Ranked opponents on the hard courts in his career and that is largely down to poor return numbers. His serve may see him force a tie-break or two, but Mackenzie McDonald is expected to be the stronger player on the court and is capable of winning this one in three or four sets.


Stefanos Tsitsipas - 5.5 games v Dominic Stricker: It looked like it might have been a genuinely awkward First Round draw for one of the top Seeds at the US Open when Stefanos Tsitsipas was paired with Milos Raonic, but all credit has to be given to the Greek player for making relatively easy work of things.

A straight sets win early in the Grand Slam tournaments is always welcomed by those looking for a deep run in the draw, but doing so against someone with the obvious weapons that Milos Raonic has is very good news for those who support Stefanos Tsitsipas.

The first two Grand Slams in the calendar year have tended to be where Stefanos Tsitsipas has enjoyed most of his successes and he has shown he can perform on the hard courts having reached the Semi Final three times at the Australian Open before finishing Runner Up earlier this year. However, Tsitsipas has never reached the second week at the US Open and had been upset in the First Round last year, which makes the win on Monday that much more impressive.

A rematch with Christopher Eubanks will certainly draw plenty of eyes if both the American and Stefanos Tsitsipas are able to win their Second Round matches, but it would be foolish to overlook the young opponent in front of the Seeded player here.

Dominic Stricker is 21 years old and representing Switzerland, which brings pressure considering he is following in the footsteps of players like Roger Federer and Stan Wawrinka. It will be something that Stricker will have to handle, but he will have built up some confidence having come through the Qualifiers before upsetting Alexei Popyrin in the First Round.

Of course this is a different level of test for the young player, who has lost his last four matches against top 20 Ranked players since upsetting Hubert Hurkacz on the grass courts of Stuttgart. Dominic Stricker failed to take a set in Grand Slam losses to Tommy Paul and Frances Tiafoe at the French Open and Wimbledon respectively this year, while Stefanos Tsitsipas beat him in straight sets on his worst surface, grass, last year.

A lefty serve could cause problems and Stricker will want to get to the net to put Stefanos Tsitsipas under pressure, but the lower Ranked player has really had a hard time with the return against the elite players on the Tour. This is going to be another tough returning day in the office if Tsitsipas comes out like he can and the feeling is that the Number 7 Seed at the US Open will prove too good in this Second Round match.

While it is a spread that looks big considering the return issues that Stefanos Tsitsipas can have, the performance in the First Round against a big server is encouraging and he can cover the line set for this one.


Christopher Eubanks - 1.5 sets v Benjamin Bonzi: After losing early in a Challenger event played on the grass courts, Christopher Eubanks was Ranked at World Number 75 and admitted that he hated playing on the surface.

The best decision he made was to speak to Kim Clijsters and whatever the former Australian Open and US Open Champion said seemed to work.

Three impressive weeks saw Christopher Eubanks win the title in Mallorca before reaching the Quarter Final at Wimbledon and his charisma and style certainly won him plenty of fans. It also helped push into the top 30 of the World Rankings and there is a different kind of pressure on the Eubanks shoulders right now as one of the more prominent American faces at his home Grand Slam.

He looks like someone who will thrive in those conditions, but it should also be noted that Christopher Eubanks is just 4-4 on the hard courts since his amazing run at Wimbledon. Each of the four losses will feel disappointing for Christopher Eubanks, but his First Round win at the US Open was much better and this looks more than a winnable Second Round contest for him.

No one will doubt the talent of Benjamin Bonzi, who has also been an effective hard court player, but he has yet to show his best form since injury earlier in the season. That caused him to miss almost the entirety of the clay court season, including his home Grand Slam at Roland Garros, and the Frenchman is just 3-8 in all matches since returning to the Tour.

Before his First Round win in New York City, Benjamin Bonzi had won a single hard court match in a Challenger event in Winnipeg and another hard court match last week in Winston Salem. However, his numbers have not been impressive on his return with Bonzi struggling for effectiveness on the return, which in turn has added to the pressure on the serve.

The First Round win over compatriot Quentin Halys saw Bonzi edge the narrow margins, but this is a significantly tougher test for him as he will likely have to deal with the home crowd as much as the opponent on the other side of the net. Christopher Eubanks used that to his advantage in beating Benjamin Bonzi in Washington last year and the former is now much more confident about his abilities on the court.

Overall his hard court numbers are not that impressive, but Christopher Eubanks has a serve that can really build scoreboard pressure on his opponent, as we saw at Wimbledon. If Benjamin Bonzi was at his healthiest and in better form, he would be a real threat, but Christopher Eubanks is expected to deal with this opponent in his current situation and he can win this match in three or four sets.


Tommy Paul - 1.5 sets v Roman Safiullin: A win over Carlos Alcaraz in one of the two Masters events played ahead of the US Open will have given Tommy Paul a real boost in confidence as he looks to surpass his best ever performance at his home Grand Slam event.

He had never played beyond the First Round before reaching the Third Round in 2022 and Tommy Paul backed up that run by reaching the Semi Final at the Australian Open in January. The two solid runs in Canada and Cincinnati underlines his development into a solid hard court player and Tommy Paul is very much in the midst of his best year on the Tour with high hopes of cracking the top 10.

The American did not play as well as he would have hoped in Paris and London in the other two Grand Slam events played this year, but Paul will have the home crowd behind him and will be keen on putting together a strong run here.

He might have hoped for a better Second Round match than facing Roman Safiullon who reached a career high World Ranking last month following a run to the Wimbledon Quarter Final. If Roman Safiullon had played a bit more tennis in the time between Wimbledon and the US Open, he may even have pushed his way into the Seeding spots at the tournament, but two losses is all that Safiullon has had to show for his efforts since London.

Roman Safiullon is capable of performing on the hard courts, but he has not really played many of the best players on the Tour on this surface. In his career, Safiullon is just 2-8 when it comes to matches against top 50 Ranked players on the hard courts, including being 0-2 in 2023 and this is a big test for him in front of a crowd that will be supporting the opponent.

The struggles have been on the return of serve in those matches and it is the return where Tommy Paul is expected to have a big enough edge to win this Second Round match.

You have to respect how dangerous Roman Safiullon could potentially be at his best, but we have not seen that consistently on the hard courts.

He would have been very welcoming of the First Round draw, but Safiullon will know this is a considerable step up in class and Tommy Paul is expected to work his way through without the need for a deciding set.


Frances Tiafoe - 5.5 games v Sebastian Ofner: A relatively disappointing build towards the US Open has perhaps allowed Frances Tiafoe to fly under the radar somewhat with a number of other American players perhaps stealing the headlines.

That might not be the worst thing in the world for Frances Tiafoe who reached the Semi Final here twelve months ago and will be looking to quietly get on with his business. He was given a pretty routine First Round match and Frances Tiafoe is a considerable favourite to beat Sebastian Ofner in the Second Round on Wednesday.

On paper this does not feel like a straight-forward match against someone who had a good run at the French Open and who is very close to cracking the top 50 in the World Rankings, but suffice to say that Sebastian Ofner is not at his most comfortable on the clay courts.

The Austrian was beaten in his sole build up match for the US Open in Winston Salem and Sebastian Ofner had lost four hard court matches in a row before his First Round win. Add in the fact that Ofner is just 2-11 in his career against top 100 Ranked opponents on this surface and he had lost eleven matches in a row against those opponents, while dropping 22/23 sets, before his win over Nuno Borges in the First Round and you begin to realise what kind of a gap Sebastian Ofner needs to bridge in this match.

Frances Tiafoe can be guilty of sometimes playing down to the level the opponent is showing and he can be a little erratic with shot choices as he bids to entertain the crowd. That isn't too bad in most cases, but Tiafoe needs to make sure he is not spending too long on the court in the early Rounds at this Grand Slam if he is going to have a chance to go at least one step further than 2022.

A couple of disappointing losses to players Ranked outside the top 50 in the World Rankings in Canada and Cincinnati will be a concern, but prior to that Frances Tiafoe had a 13-1 record against those opponents this year on the hard courts. His numbers in the sixteen matches played against opponents outside of the top 50 have been very strong ahead of the US Open and Frances Tiafoe was a strong First Round winner over another of those.

This match is expected to be more competitive, but the home player can use the energy from the stands to work his way to a relatively comfortable place in the Third Round of the final Grand Slam of the season.

MY PICKS: Mackenzie McDonald - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Christopher Eubanks - 1.5 Sets @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tommy Paul - 1.5 Sets @ 1.66 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Frances Tiafoe - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Adrian Mannarino - 1.5 Sets @ 1.70 Coral (2 Units)
Casper Ruud - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Coral (2 Units)
Marton Fucsovics - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ben Shelton - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Laura Davis - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)
Coco Gauff - 4.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)
Elena Rybakina - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Victoria Azarenka - 4.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)

US Open Update: 5-4, + 0.20 Units (18 Units Staked, + 1.11% Yield)

Tuesday 29 August 2023

US Open Tennis Day 2 Picks 2023 (August 29th)

Out of the four Grand Slam events, the scheduling of the US Open always seems to make it feel like we see a few more surprising results early in the tournament.

That has been the case on Day 1 of the tournament with the First Round underway and a number of Seeds have been eliminated, while others had difficulties in winning matches.

It is perhaps the main reason that I have talked myself out of some selections and even then it was a tough opening day for the Tennis Picks.

Day 2 is another relatively quiet day for the selections, but much more is expected from them than the earlier Picks were able to give back.


Jannik Sinner - 8.5 games v Yannick Hanfmann: Winning one of the two Masters events played in the lead up to the US Open will have given Jannik Sinner a boost in confidence and this is clearly a genuine threat to the hopes of fans wanting to see Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic meet in the US Open Final in a couple of weeks time.

He has been a solid hard court player since the start of the 2021 season and Jannik Sinner came very close to beating Carlos Alcaraz at the US Open twelve months ago. Taking the next step at the Grand Slam level is the challenge for Sinner, but he is more than capable of doing that and it will take a big effort to put him out of the tournament.

It is very unlikely that Yannick Hanfmann will have the tennis to do that against Jannik Sinner in this First Round contest in the Night Session on Louis Armstrong on Day 2 of the tournament. While Yannick Hanfmann has reached a career high World Ranking last month, the most effective tennis has been played on the clay courts and it has been a considerable challenge for the German when he has been faced by the top 100 opponents on this surface.

Over the course of the season, Yannick Hanfmann has lost all five matches played against top 100 Ranked opponents on the hard courts and it has to be a concern that none of those have been against the likes of Jannik Sinner.

The serve has not been nearly as effective as Yannick Hanfmann would have hoped in those matches against stronger opponents, while he is simply not able to find enough quality returns to make up for those struggles. Against an opponent like Jannik Sinner, it is going to be very difficult for Yannick Hanfmann to have an impact to win the match, although it is a different question when it comes to covering this spread.

It is a wide number and one that a break of serve or two for Yannick Hanfmann would make it almost impossible for Jannik Sinner to cover.

However, the Italian has all of the tools to break down the Hanfmann game over the course of two hours on the court and he should enjoy the atmosphere on this court. The quality of tennis is not in doubt and a clinical match can be produced by Jannik Sinner which will see him get into a position to earn enough break points that enables him to cover this mark.


Stan Wawrinka - 1.5 sets v Yoshihito Nishioka: You may wonder what kind of motivating factors keep Stan Wawrinka out competing on the tennis courts around the world, but it is clearly something he loves to do. At 38 years old, Stan Wawrinka is not the same player that won multiple Grand Slam titles, but he still believes he has more to give and that is the main reason he is still competing.

A couple of wins in Cincinnati will have given Stan Wawrinka some confidence and he has produced some decent numbers on the hard courts this year.

The form has been decent enough to take Stan Wawrinka back into the top 50 of the World Rankings having begun the season at Number 148 and this looks a First Round match that he will be expected to win. He looks to have landed in a decent little section of the draw and Wawrinka will be looking to at least reach the Third Round where Jannik Sinner will be expected to stand in his way.

Overlooking Yoshihito Nishioka would be a mistake and this is a player who is capable of producing an upset in any tournament he takes part in.

However, Yoshihito Nishioka has had a difficult year and he has lost eight of his last nine matches on the hard courts. His preparation for the US Open has not been impressive and Nishioka has not really looked the same player after picking up an injury at the French Open.

You would have expected better from Yoshihito Nishioka when it comes to the return of serve, but that has not always been the case when looking at his performances against top 100 Ranked opponents on this surface. The serve can be vulnerable at times and Nishioka has lost ten of sixteen hard court matches on the har courts against top 100 Ranked opponents this year.

The Stan Wawrinka return is not exactly a dominant part of his tennis, but the Swiss player has the stronger serve of the two players. Confidence levels can be a difference maker in these kind of matches and Wawrinka looks to have a bit more belief in his tennis right now and can find a way to work his way through to the Second Round in three or four sets.


Jessica Pegula - 4.5 games v Camila Giorgi: One American won the Cincinnati Masters when Coco Gauff took home the title, while another one in Montreal where the Canadian Masters were played.

That player, Jessica Pegula, will enter the US Open as the World Number 3 and there will be plenty of fans arriving at the grounds expecting her to have a very deep run at the US Open. She has been a late bloomer on the WTA Tour and at 29 years old Jessica Pegula may be entering the peak years of her career, while a real breakthrough at Grand Slam level may open the door for so much more to come.

Jessica Pegula has reached the Quarter Final in six of the last eleven Grand Slam tournaments played, but she has not yet been able to take the next step and play in a Semi Final. The defeat to eventual Wimbledon Champion Marketa Vondrousova will have frustrated Jessica Pegula considering she was a point away from taking a double break lead in the deciding set in that Quarter Final, while the defeat to Victoria Azarenka in the Quarter Final at the Australian Open will have been in a match that Pegula will have expected to win.

Those demons will have to be exorcised later in this tournament, but Jessica Pegula has shown she can work her way through to the second week of these Grand Slam events.

A First Round match against Camila Giorgi is going to be a tough challenge for Jessica Pegula and especially if the Italian is anywhere near her best form. She did come through the Qualifiers and then won a main draw match in Montreal, but Giorgi was forced to withdraw during her First Qualifying Round match in Cincinnati.

For all of her talents, Camila Giorgi has lost nine of her last ten matches against top 20 Ranked players on the hard courts and that includes losses in all four matches played this season. Camila Giorgi's serve has been vulnerable in those matches in 2023, while her aggressive style of tennis can lead to plenty of errors and Giorgi has not returned nearly well enough in those defeats.

A poor record against Jessica Pegula will not inspire much more confidence and it should be noted that Camila Giorgi would not have covered with this handicap start in any of those four defeats to top 20 Ranked opponents on this surface in 2023.

Jessica Pegula is a perfect 12-0 against players Ranked outside the top 50 on the hard courts this season and she would have covered this handicap mark in eleven of those wins. The Arthur Ashe crowd will be looking for a strong start from the American who is considered one of the favourites to win the title and Jessica Pegula can respond in kind with a strong win against a decent opponent.


Qinwen Zheng - 4.5 games v Nadia Podoroska: There are a lot of very competitive matches in the First Round of the women's Singles at the US Open, but this feels like an opportunity for Qinwen Zheng to get off to a strong start.

There is a lot of potential to be fulfilled by Qinwen Zheng as long as she can stay healthy going forward and she has some solid hard court numbers including picking up three wins in the Masters events played in preparation for the US Open.

Both of the defeats have been to players Ranked higher than herself and Qinwen Zheng is 9-2 on the hard courts in matches where she has been the higher Ranked player in the match. The numbers have been impressive in those eleven matches and it looks a good chance for Zheng to make a strong start against someone who has not enjoyed playing on the hard courts.

Nadia Podoroska is a clay court specialist and she is just 1-4 in matches on the hard courts against opponents Ranked inside the top 100. The sole win was earned in Cleveland last week, but Podoroska has had some poor numbers against the better players on the Tour and she would not have made use of this many games on the handicap in the four losses.

She did upset Christina McHale on the hard courts of the Australian Open in 2021, although Nadia Podoroska was the higher Ranked player of the two on the day. However, three other losses have been suffered against top 100 Ranked players in the Grand Slams played on the hard courts and Qinwen Zheng should have too much in this First Round contest.

MY PICKS: Jannik Sinner - 8.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka - 1.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jessica Pegula - 4.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Qinwen Zheng - 4.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

US Open Update: 1-4, - 6.5 Units (10 Units Staked, - 65% Yield)

Monday 28 August 2023

US Open Tennis Day 1 Picks 2023 (August 28th)

The final Grand Slam of the season will begin on Monday 28th August and the US Open looks like it could be a special tournament.

After the Wimbledon Final and the rematch in the Masters Final in Cincinnati, fans will be salivating over the prospect of seeing Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz meet in a little under two weeks time for another Grand Slam title.

Unsurprisingly the two top men's players in the world are short odds to win the US Open compared with the rest of the field- while both Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz are priced at single digits, you can get double digit odds for any other player in the field.

The odds suggest it will be a straight fight between the two players that have won the last five Grand Slam titles, but there are players in the field that will be looking to quietly go about their business. Daniil Medvedev won the US Open in 2021 and is clearly at his best on the hard courts, while players like Jannik Sinner and Taylor Fritz will be looking for deep runs.

We have seen some surprising runs at the US Open in the past with players like Juan Martin Del Potro, Marin Cilic and Dominic Thiem previous winners here since 2009. However, it does feel like a tournament that is either going to be won by Djokovic or Alcaraz and may just depend on which of those two players can hold themselves together at tough moments over the next two weeks.

Out of the two, the defending Champion Carlos Alcaraz certainly looks to have a tougher path through to the Final, but it will be a case of fingers crossed that we get to see the Final that most would be asking for.


Both Alcaraz and Djokovic are priced up shorter than the women's favourite at the US Open and that just underlines the competitiveness at the top of the WTA draw at Flushing Meadows.

Iga Swiatek is the defending Champion, the Number 1 Seed and the favourite, but it does feel like a number of other names will be confident of taking that title home.

Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina are obvious contenders, while the American audiences, and the home organisers, will be looking forward in seeing how far Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff can progress over this fortnight.

The good news for WTA fans is that the draw is loaded with some talent and it should mean an exciting final Slam of the season all around and that is what the sport needs. And that will especially be the case if one of those top names wins the title and continue strengthening the top of the women's game.


Taylor Fritz - 6.5 games v Steve Johnson: Most American tennis fans would consider the women's Singles event being played at the US Open as being the one that is more likely to produce a first home Champion since Sloane Stephens won the title in New York City in 2017.

There are a couple of top ten Seeds representng the United States in the men's draw too, but it is hard to look past the two names who have won the last five Grand Slam titles played.

Taylor Fritz and Frances Tiafoe will both get their US Open challenges underway on Monday as Day 1 of the tournament begins, but it is only the latter of those two names who has had a really good run here before. That came last year when Frances Tiafoe reached the Semi Final at the US Open, but it has been much harder work for Taylor Fritz.

He may be the World Number 9 and he may have reached as high as World Number 5, but Taylor Fritz has yet to have the kind of consistent impact at Grand Slam level that his World Ranking would suggest. A Quarter Final run at Wimbledon in 2022 is the best it has been for Taylor Fritz, but it is almost hard to believe that he has only reached the second week of one other Grand Slam whwn making the Australian Open Fourth Round in 2021.

Simply put it is not good enough.

Facing veteran Steve Johnson in this First Round match gives Taylor Fritz a chance to get his teeth into the tournament, but there will be some mental demons to exorcise considering the poor record he holds at his home Grand Slam. In three of the last four years, Fritz has failed to even make it through to the Third Round, but his preparation during this US hard court swing has been decent enough.

It also helps that he is facing Steve Johnson who has slipped well outside the top 100 in the World Rankings and who has begun to play the majority of his tennis at Challenger level to rebuild some confidence. That has worked to some extent with some solid runs in hard court events, but over the last twelve months, Steve Johnson has a 0-7 record when facing top 100 Ranked players on the surface.

The serve can give Steve Johnson a chance, but he has really been struggling on the return in those matches and that has perhaps contributed to declining numbers behind his best shot.

It will also help Taylor Fritz in being familiar with this opponent having won the last three matches between them, while also winning three of four previous hard court matches.

My concern in backing Taylor Fritz when it comes to spreads of this margin is that he does not have a very strong return game and giving up serve a couple of times makes it difficult for him to recover. However, the Steve Johnson game is not as strong as when these two last met in 2021 and Taylor Fritz has continued to develop, albeit we have yet to see the outcome of the work being put in when it comes to Grand Slam results.

One tie-breaker is almost to be expected, but Fritz can just wear down the veteran over the course of a couple of hours on the court and that should see him cover this line narrowly.


Alexander Bublik - 2.5 games v Dominic Thiem: Three years ago Dominic Thiem realised a dream when picking up his Grand Slam title at the US Open having fought back from two sets down to edge out Alexander Zverev in an epic Final.

The hope for the Austrian is that it isn't going to be the top of the mountain as far as his career goes as injuries have restricted Dominic Thiem over the last couple of years. It is a big reason the former Champion is now down at World Number 82 and preparation for the tournament has been far from ideal considering this is the first hard court match Thiem will be playing since March at the Miami Masters.

One or two signs have been seen that Dominic Thiem might be finding a way to get back towards his best, but those have largely been on the clay courts and this is a different test. Some have suggested the courts at the US Open are not playing as fast as previously, but Dominic Thiem has lost his last seven hard court matches, including all six played in 2023.

He is up against one of the Seeded players, but it might be argued that Alexander Bublik is one of the weaker of those Seeds in the draw. This is clearly a talented player, but Bublik has not found a lot of consistency on the hard courts and his approach to his tennis is perhaps a touch too care-free.

Losses to Gael Monfils and Hubert Hurkacz has meant Alexander Bublik has not won a match on the hard courts in the lead up to the US Open, while he was eliminated in the First Round at the Australian Open, Putting that together and you can perhaps understand why Bublik is not a dominant favourite in this match, although it does feel like one in which he should find a way to earn the victory.

Serving well will be the key, especially as Dominic Thiem is still finding his feet back on the hard courts. This year, Thiem has only held 66% of his hard court service games and he was comfortably beaten by Andrey Rublev at the Australian Open in their First Round meeting in Melbourne back in January.

Neither of these players will be pointing to strong return numbers on the hard courts in 2023, but Alexander Bublik does look like he may have an edge when it comes to the serving numbers. That could make all the difference in their second professional match against one another and the feeling is that having a few more hard court matches under his belt over the last month can help Alexander Bublik to a good looking win against the former Champion.


Casper Ruud - 6.5 games v Emilio Nava: Make no mistake, the general hard court performances of Casper Ruud have been noted this year and it is very difficult to make a case for the World Number 5 to have anything like the run he enjoyed at the US Open last year.

However, he has reached three Grand Slam Finals since June 2022 and it is clear that Casper Ruud is finding a way to peak and bring his best form when the big tournaments roll around.

The time between Wimbledon and the US Open has not been nearly as effectively used by Casper Ruud as we have seen in the past and the relatively early losses in Masters events in Canada and Cincinnati will have not done much for the confidence of the player. The summer clay court events helped, but Casper Ruud is just 6-8 on the hard courts in 2023 and there may be a few calling for a First Round upset.

Despite the form, it is still tough to believe that Ruud does not have the quality of tennis to beat young American Emilio Nava, even if the latter has put three wins on the board at the US Open in coming through the Qualifiers. Emilio Nava will head into the main draw with a new career best World Ranking number next to his name, while an upset will see him open this section of the draw and potentially help Nava produce a surprising run.

However, the majority of Emilio Nava's time is still spent away from the main ATP Tour and this is a considerable step up in level of competition that he is used to facing. He does not possess an overwhelming serve and Emilio Nava has broken in just 17% of return games played on the surface before the US Open Qualifiers begun.

It is also very difficult to ignore the fact that Emilio Nava is just 2-11 in hard court matches played against top 100 Ranked opponents in his career. Respect is given for the fact that Nava has taken sets from quality players like Lorenzo Musetti and Andy Murray at the US Open, but he ended up well beaten in both of those matches and Casper Ruud is capable of going through the gears when he does get on top of opponents.

Emilio Nava has really struggled to deal with the return of serve against the top 100 opponents played on the hard courts and while he has shown some signs of improving his own service numbers, it may still not be enough to make up for the returning side of his tennis.

Casper Ruud can be a little erratic early in Grand Slam tournaments, but he has won his last five First Round matches at the Australian and US Open tournaments combined. In the four completed wins in that run (one was a retirement with Ruud fully in control), the Norwegian would have covered this handicap mark twice and missed another by a single game.

The home player will likely keep the first couple of sets competitive, but eventually Casper Ruud's qualities should shine through as the 2022 Runner Up gets his tournament underway.


Sebastian Korda - 1.5 sets v Marton Fucsovics: An ankle injury picked up just a few days ago is far from ideal for Sebastian Korda as he prepares to play at the US Open as one of the Seeded players.

He withdrew from the tournament in Winston Salem with the complaint and would have preferred to have been in the top half of the draw in New York City if only to have earned an extra day of rest and recovery.

Sebastian Korda has long been considered a player with a huge amount of potential, but at 23 years old we have yet to see him produce the consistency needed. This is a tough First Round match too if he is feeling the ankle, but you have to believe that he withdrew from Winston Salem as a precaution and he should be ready to compete.

He will need to be ready having seen how tough Marton Fucsovics can be in a match played against each other last week- Sebastian Korda prevailed, but it was a tight match with very little in the margins and so the American is going to need to be close to full fitness in order to get the better of Fucsovics again.

That won't be easy against a solid enough hard court player and Marton Fucsovics has been known to produce an upset or two at Grand Slam level. There is little doubt he will be playing with confidence, but Sebastian Korda has a bit more pop out of the first serve and ultimately that could make the difference in this First Round contest.

You would worry about Korda's chances of progressing if he needs to enter a fifth set, but he is capable of edging the margins to a three or four set victory.


Coco Gauff - 5.5 games v Laura Siegemund: Unsurprisingly the Day 1 Night Session will feature one of the top names in American tennis and a genuine contender to win the US Open title.

Coco Gauff has long been considered someone who will win multiple Grand Slam titles having burst onto the scene as a teenager, but winning the big Masters event in Cincinnati has only increased the level of expectation around her. That is the biggest title that Coco Gauff has won and moved her into World Number 6 and there will be some pressure walking out onto Arthur Ashe to begin this final Grand Slam of 2023.

However, Coco Gauff has long understood the pressures and she has shown a decent temperament in being able to handle that.

She will be tested by Laura Siegemund, even though the veteran is now outside the top 100 in the World Rankings and seven years since reaching her peak career high World Ranking. Winning three Qualifiers will give Laura Siegemund confidence, while she will understand that there is nothing to lose when playing in front of an expectant home crowd.

Trying to battle and make Coco Gauff work for everything will be the plan, but the American has won all thirteen matches against players outside of the top 50 on the hard courts in 2023. That improves to winning all eighteen matches in that situation over the last twelve months and Coco Gauff is a much better player than when she lost the sole previous match between these two players.

Her numbers in the eighteen match wins over players outside of the top 50 makes strong reading and the feeling is that Coco Gauff can come out and make an early statement to the rest of the field.

MY PICKS: Taylor Fritz - 6.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Alexander Bublik - 2.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Casper Ruud - 6.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)
Sebastian Korda - 1.5 Sets @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)
Coco Gauff - 5.5 Games @ 1.70 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Friday 25 August 2023

Boxing Picks 2023- Oleksandr Usyk vs Daniel Dubois (August 26th)

In a year in which we have seen Undisputed Champions crowned in some of the lower weight classes, the Heavyweight Division has slowly begun to click into gear.

We might not be getting the Undisputed fight that all Boxing fans would have been hoping for, but Anthony Joshua has been out twice and this week we have three of the four World Titles being defended in Poland when Oleksandr Usyk takes on Daniel Dubois.

It might not be the fight that the fans would have wanted, but clears a mandatory out of the way before we hopefully have another shot at making the Undisputed fight. Frank Warren and Queensberry promotions would be very happy with a Dubois win on Saturday as that would become a very easy in-house Undisputed fight to make against Tyson Fury and likely would land in a big Stadium in the United Kingdom, but an Usyk win will likely lead to more negotiations and the hopes from all parties that Saudi Arabia are willing to put in the big bucks that both fighters will be demanding.

That might not be a situation that is cleared up until Tyson Fury has his crossover fight against Francis Ngannou in late October, but hopefully there will be more positive news from Anthony Joshua and Deontay Wilder, who have been speaking about a fight of their own in Saudi Arabia.

In saying all of that, it is a real shame that the Heavyweights are as inactive as they have been (outside of Anthony Joshua) and I am not just talking about the big four names.

Andy Ruiz Jr is Ranked as high as Number 2 in a couple of the organisations and has not fought since September 2022, Daniel Dubois fights this weekend for the first time since December, Filip Hrgovic was back a couple of weekends ago for the first time in a year, while Frank Sanchez has fought a single Round since October 2022.

This is hugely frustrating to fans of the sport and the only hope is that we will get better news in the second half of the year, although it does feel the lure of a big payday in Saudi Arabia has too many sitting down and waiting to see if the offers come in.


At least prospect Jared Anderson is back quickly after a tougher than expected test against former Champion Charles Martin, but more out of the big men is needed just to give the sport another injection of headlines.


Despite the lack of activity in the Heavyweight Division, the second 'half' of 2023 looks to be very, very exciting with some huge fights scheduled and others set to make their way onto dates that have been left over. This can only be a positive for Boxing fans in what has been arguably one of the best full years in the sport for a long time.

Next weekend the United Kingdom fans will be looking forward to Liam Smith vs Chris Eubank II to open the month which will be concluded in a huge fight between Canelo Alvarez and Jermell Charlo for all of the gold in the Super Middleweight Division. There are plenty of good fights in between, notably the rematch between Zhilei Zhang and Joe Joyce and it is another loaded schedule for fans of the sport.



Oleksandr Usyk vs Daniel Dubois

There is a quiet confidence on the Daniel Dubois side of the road ahead of this World Heavyweight Title fight- his promoters, trainers and the boxer himself feel this is their time for an upset over an undefeated Champion.

That does give you some pause for thought, but it is still hard to imagine Daniel Dubois will have enough at this stage of his career to beat someone as good as Oleksandr Usyk.

The Champion is considerably older than Daniel Dubois, but Oleksandr Usyk has beaten a lot of quality fighters in moving to 20-0 and the way he bamboozled Anthony Joshua twice certainly has many believing the Ukrainian is the best fighter in the Division. Of course we will only know that for sure if Usyk and Tyson Fury are able to finally meet for all of the gold, but the three Belt holder has to make sure he is not thinking too far ahead.

It could be argued that Oleksandr Usyk is facing the biggest puncher he has ever been in the ring with and Daniel Dubois is naturally a bigger man. The British fighter has shown he can hurt most of the fighters he has been in the ring with and Daniel Dubois knows he needs to be able to let his hands go if he is going to have any chance.

He has admitted that it is unlikely he can out-box the Champion and win this on the cards, and Dubois is expected to be a little more sure with his tactics compared with Anthony Joshua who many feel overthought the way to approach any fight with Usyk. Personally it feels like Dubois will be blinkered as to his game plan and he should come forward and look to hurt Usyk anywhere he can hit him.

The footwork of the Champion is going to be key, while you do have to wonder how Daniel Dubois will deal with some of the punches that will be coming back at him. The eye injury against Joe Joyce is hard to forget, but Oleksandr Usyk probably does not hit as hard as The Juggernaut, although accuracy won't be an issue for Usyk at all.

More worrying has to be the way Kevin Lerena was able to put Daniel Dubois down three times in the First Round in the latter's last fight in December 2022. He did suffer an ACL injury in that fight and Dubois did rally, but he was perhaps given more opportunities to recover being the home fighter that day and the South African southpaw had not shown much form to believe he would have the power to floor someone like Dubois when coming up from Cruiserweight.

Oleksandr Usyk is a superior southpaw compared with Lerena, although he has not been a Stoppage merchant moving into Heavyweight. He clearly hits hard having rocked Derek Chisora and Anthony Joshua, but Usyk has admitted that he is not someone that will go chasing a Knock Out if it is not there.

The question in this one is whether Daniel Dubois will really go for broke in the first Six Rounds as he looks for the upset.

If he does and Oleksandr Usyk is able to weather any early storm, the Ukrainian can go through the gears and he is likely going to gas out Daniel Dubois and 'drown him' in the second half of the fight. It does mean the lean is with a late Stoppage in favour of the defending Champion, although there is every chance that Daniel Dubois will see a run to the cards as a win and may end up being a lot more cautious.

We have seen Usyk just do enough to win fights and not look to finish opponents, but this feels like a fight in which he can show that he is a capable finisher in this Division. Daniel Dubois might just begin to feel the pace after four or five Rounds and Oleksandr Usyk has the capability of just turning it on and forcing the ref to step in at some point around the Ninth Round.


Another British fighter is out in Poland looking to get the better of a Ukrainian opponent, but Hamzah Sheeraz is a favourite against Dmytro Mytrofanov.

Both are unbeaten, but Mytrofanov is much older and has not really taken on any opponent of note. He is naturally smaller than Hamzah Sheeraz, while a single fight since December 2021 is hardly ideal preparation.

Since a controversial win over Bradley Skeete, Hamzah Sheeraz decided to move up to Middleweight and has produced three dominant wins in the new Division. He has been out of the ring since November 2022, which is never ideal for a developing fighter, but he has broken into the top 10 in the Rankings of a couple of the organisation bodies, while Sheeraz looks more comfortable at the weight class.

Ukrainian fighters are tough, but over Twelve Rounds you would have to expect Sheeraz to find one or two openings in which he can make the kind of impact to see avoid having to win on the cards on the road.


Over in the United States, young prospect Jared Anderson is back in action a little over six weeks since being pushed to the cards for the first time in his career by Charles Martin. The former Heavyweight Champion gave Anderson plenty to think about, but that could prove to be valuable lesson for the next great American Heavyweight.

This is another test against a veteran for Anderson who faces Andrii Rudenko, although the Ukrainian looks to have had his best days. At 39 years old, Rudenko has only had one fight since being Stopped for the first time in December 2021 and you do have to wonder if he has enough in the tank to keep a power hitter like Jared Anderson at bay.

Andrii Rudenko has taken guys like Lucas Browne, Hughie Fury, Alexander Povetkin and Zhilei Zhang the distance, but the last of those fights was back in 2019. He is much older now and Jared Anderson might show what he learned from the Charles Martin fight by winning this one in the first half of the fight as he continues closing in on the top five of the World Rankings in a couple of the organisations.


Jared Anderson only ended up fighting Charles Martin because Zhan Kossobutskiy had visa issues heading to the United States. The unbeaten Heavyweight is able to head across this weekend though and Top Rank have perhaps decided that the Kazakh and Anderson can meet with more on the line in 2024.

The build for that fight can begin as soon as this weekend if Kossobutskiy can beat Efe Ajagba, a fighter who had built a decent reputation before losing to Frank Sanchez.

He has won two in a row since then, but Zhan Kossobutskiy has a big reputation building and some have compared him with Gennady Golovkin, albeit at a much higher weight class.

This could be a big hitting Heavyweight contest, but there looked to be some vulnerabilities in Ajagba in his loss to Frank Sanchez. The feeling was that Sanchez could have closed the show with a bit more desire to do so, and that is likely to be an approach Zhan Kossobutskiy will take as he sets himself in a position to face Jared Anderson down the line.

MY PICKS: Oleksandr Usyk to Win Between 7-12 @ 3.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Hamzah Sheeraz to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Jared Anderson to Win Between 1-5 @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Zhan Kossobutskiy to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 2.62 Coral (2 Units)

Boxing Update 2023: 36-69, - 26.02 Units (196 Units Staked, - 13.28% Yield)

Saturday 12 August 2023

Boxing Picks 2023- Anthony Joshua vs Robert Helenius (August 12th)

Every time it feels like Boxing has taken a couple of positive steps forward, negative headlines only feel like they are around the corner.

After two mammoth events featuring some of the elite boxers in the world, last week the news came out that Dillian Whyte was not going to be allowed to go on with his rematch with Anthony Joshua after failing a VADA test in preparation for the big fight in London.

Once again these are issues within the sport that continue to hurt all of the athletes involved- so many casual fans must get put off by these stories and wonder about the state of the sport, while even those who have never failed a test will be tarnished by these reports.

There is no doubt that the failed test is a disappointment for Anthony Joshua, who had been preparing very hard for the rematch, and the fans who had bought tickets for the event (like me). Robert Helenius is going to be talked up by Eddie Hearn and Matchroom, but this is the same fighter they considered past it BEFORE he was Knocked Out in the First Round by Deontay Wilder having been critical of that fight.

Anthony Joshua needs to be active though and it is better to face somebody, rather than sitting out for a few more months hoping for the Deontay Wilder fight to materialise.

The biggest fight of the night will actually be taking place in the United States where Emanuel Navarrete takes on Oscar Valdez for the WBO World Super Featherweight Title. This was a fight that was due to take place earlier in the year, but they finally will meet in the ring and it is a fight that should produce fireworks and very quickly too.



Anthony Joshua vs Robert Helenius

The excitement of the rematch between Anthony Joshua and Dillian Whyte is no longer a factor, but it is only good news for Joshua to actually get another fight under Derrick James under his belt.

While there has been an opponent change, Robert Helenius is perhaps at a similar stage of his career as Whyte and this is someone who can help make Anthony Joshua look good after the criticisms of the performance in the win over Jermaine Franklin in April.

Yes, Helenius is a bit taller than Whyte and he is coming in off a victory last week, but this is someone who is very much on the downward slope in his career and who has struggled to deal with the big shots as well as he once would.

The Deontay Wilder wipeout will be very much on the mind's of most fans and that does put some pressure on Anthony Joshua, although this tall, European style has proven to be one that Joshua has enjoyed facing and produced some of his best performances.

Accusations of being 'gun shy' will be levelled at Joshua again if he is not more positive than he was in the win over Franklin, although I do think the latter has shown he has a decent chin, good movement and can dip much lower than Robert Helenius will be able to do.

Those big time Knock Out losses suffered by Robert Helenius are hard to shift from the mind and the fact he is someone who will take a risk to get forward can only work to Anthony Joshua's advantage.

If this fight moves into the second half, it will be a big surprise and Anthony Joshua can earn a first Knock Out win since December 2020.


Criticisms of Heavyweight fighters is not going to be unfamiliar to one of those on the undercard as Filip Hrgovic returns after a year out of the ring.

He has been waiting to see if his mandatory IBF World Title position would be called, but inactivity is disappointing as he takes on unbeaten Demsey McKean.

Filip Hrgovic is fortunate to still be an unbeaten fighter after his win over Zhilei Zhang last August, but he has admitted his camp had been anything but ideal ahead of that fight as he was hurt time and time again.

This time he is facing an opponent who is not nearly as experienced as Zhang and Filip Hrgovic's power should make a difference for him against the unbeaten Australian.

Demsey McKean has not been much more active than Hrgovic and has been taking on lower level opponents with this being a big step up compared to those previous opponents.

The expectation is that El Animal can just remind the fans of his abilities and wipe out the memory of his last performance. He hits hard and very early on and Filip Hrgovic should just show that he deserves to be the next big contender for the World Titles when the Undisputed fight is finally signed off.


There is also an ultimate crossroads fight for two veterans Derek Chisora and Gerald Washington who have lost more than they have won in recent fights.

Out of the two, Chisora looks to have a bit more left in the tank and has been a lot more active than the American who was rumoured to be stepping in for Dillian Whyte in the main event before Robert Helenius in the main event.

It might not be the most pleasant fight to watch, but it could end up developing into a shoot-out as energy dissipates for two big, older fighters with plenty of miles on the clock. The feeling is that Derek Chisora's ability to take a bit more of a punch and still chug forward may wear down Gerald Washington and see the British fighter force the Stoppage.

And in another Heavyweight clash on a big hitting night, Johnny Fisher is expected to get the better of Harry Armstrong for the Southern Area Title and it could be a relatively early night for the up and coming Romford Bull.


Over in the United States, the fight between Emanuel Navarrete and Oscar Valdez is finally going to take place for the WBO World Title in the Super Featherweight Division.

Shakur Stevenson has left the 130 pound Division behind, and the winner of this one could quickly be heading into Unification bouts in a decent weight class.

Picking a winner is not easy- Emanuel Navarrete has looked like he has the dimensions to be a strong fighter in the Division and his power has carried, while Oscar Valdez is plenty experienced at World class level. However, Valdez has not really looked the same at this weight class and this is where Navarrete looks to have an edge and he might be able to find a late Stoppage in a firefight.

MY PICKS: Anthony Joshua to Win Between 1-6 @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Filip Hrgovic to Win Between 1-6 @ 3.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Derek Chisora to Win Between 6-10 @ 3.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Johnny Fisher to Win Between 1-5 @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Emmanuel Navarrete to Win Between 7-12 @ 8.50 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Boxing Update: 36-64, - 18.02 Units (188 Units Staked, - 9.59% Yield)