It might just be that poor days at the US Open are remembered much more than other tournaments, but it really feels the final Grand Slam of the season can have those days where every top player performs much lower than their overall season record would indicate.
Poor decisions, poor execution and just overall rubbish tennis will be played at the same time as unheralded players put together their very best and ultimately it becomes a day of the dog.
Day 3 at the US Open felt like that with just topsy-turvy results and performances all around the grounds and it can be frustrating to watch.
You have to believe things will settle down, but the hope is that Day 4 and the conclusion of the Second Round matches brings much stronger results back to us.
Looking back at the Day 3 Picks, you cannot help but feel a little disappointed by what occurred.
Top players losing leads and being upset is not something you would expect to see too often, a retirement in a match where the selection was winning, and players waiting too long to turn things around have contributed to a really poor day in the office.
Bouncing back this week is the key so it is possible to attack the second week of the final Grand Slam of the season, but it would also be welcomed to see players follow through with any momentum they can build up through Day 4 as the Second Round is completed.
Carlos Alcaraz - 7.5 games v Lloyd Harris: Bad luck cost his First Round opponent any chance of upsetting the defending Champion, but it was long odds against Dominik Koepfer even if he had been fully healthy to compete for two or three hours on the court.
The benefit for Carlos Alcaraz is not having to tax himself too much early in the defence of the US Open title picked up last year, but the top Seed will likely have appreciated an hour on the courts to see how the conditions are compared with last year. He will be expecting to be placed in the Night Session on Arthur Ashe a few more times in this tournament and Alcaraz looks more than capable of having another very deep run in New York City.
Matches will get tougher as the tournament progresses, but Carlos Alcaraz is going to be a strong favourite to beat a player like Lloyd Harris in the Second Round of the tournament.
The big serving South African player has not had the most productive season on the Tour and he has really had difficulties stepping up to face top 100 Ranked opponents throughout 2023. Injuries also haven't helped Lloyd Harris who has slipped down to World Number 177 after being as high as Number 31 just two years ago.
Lloyd Harris will be aware that this match is only going to be competitive if he can bring his best serving day onto the court. That certainly helped him beat Guido Pella in straight sets in the First Round, but Carlos Alcaraz is a much stronger opponent and one that is capable of getting back plenty of returns and neutralising the immediate weapon of Harris and forcing him to try and beat the Spaniard on the ground.
The second serve is likely going to be a shot that Carlos Alcaraz looks to attack and his own serve is one that should largely keep Lloyd Harris at bay with the former considerably stronger on the ground.
The last five times Lloyd Harris has played top 10 Ranked opponents on the hard courts have ended in defeat for the underdog, and that was at a time when his tennis had taken him into the top 50 of the World Rankings. There has been little encouragement in Harris' build up form towards the US Open, while he has not exactly gotten back to his best even when entering Challenger events to rebuild the confidence.
His serve makes him potentially an awkward Second Round opponent, but Carlos Alcaraz is a perfect 9-0 on the hard courts in 2023 when facing those Ranked outside of the top 20. His numbers in those matches are very impressive behind both serve and return and it feels like a match in which Lloyd Harris could potentially melt away under the constant pressure the top Seed will bring.
Arthur Fils - 1.5 sets v Matteo Arnaldi: At 19 years old there are plenty of learning experiences for players to go through on the Tour and winning a five set match and then recovering to play in the next Round is the lesson that Arthur Fils will be learning this week in New York City.
The young Frenchman looks to have a bright future ahead of him having cracked the top 50 in the World Rankings and Arthur Fils has impressed already. He showed character in fighting back from 2-1 down in sets to beat Tallon Griekspoor in the First Round and that has opened up this section of the draw with that victory being over a Seeded player.
Of course it is hard to ignore the almost four hours spent on the court, although the conditions in New York City have not been as hot as it can be and that should help.
Arthur Fils deserved to win, but it was a tight, competitive match and a far cry from Matteo Arnaldi's experience having earned a First Round victory when his opponent retired just ten games into the match. While the likes of Lorenzo Musetti and Jannik Sinner look to be the future of Italian Tennis, Matteo Arnaldi has quietly climbed into his own career best World Ranking and at 22 years old he has a bright future in the sport too.
Like many from his part of Europe, Matteo Arnaldi has had his best results on the clay courts, but his hard court numbers are not to be dismissed. Matteo Arnaldi won a title at Challenger level on the surface this year, but it should also be noted that he had lost all five matches against top 100 Ranked players on the hard courts before Jason Kubler's retirement in the First Round.
In those defeats, Matteo Arnaldi has seen his serve attacked and the return has been an issue and it is expected to be the case against Arthur Fils, assuming the higher Ranked player has been given the right advice to get himself ready for this match.
The Frenchman has played well against those not Ranked inside the top 20 on the hard courts in 2023 and his numbers have been impressive in those matches. Unlike Arnaldi, Arthur Fils has found a way to get plenty out of his serve on the hard courts and he has also had a significant edge when it comes to the return, which should show up in this Second Round match.
After a tough win in the First Round, Arthur Fils is expected to have a more routine progress into the Third Round by backing up the victory over Seeded Tallon Griekspoor.
Cameron Norrie - 7.5 games v Yu Hsiou Hsu: A strong run to the Wimbledon Semi Final in 2022 would have given Cameron Norrie a huge amount of confidence and he was soon to enter the top 10 despite having earned no World Rankings for that run.
However, the top British player has not really been able to back up that Grand Slam performance in subsequent Slams and Cameron Norrie has not made the second week at any of the three Grand Slams played in 2023. He will be looking to change that in New York City and was a very strong winner in the First Round, while most will be expecting him to cruise past an opponent who is outside of the top 200 of the World Rankings and has a career high of Number 186.
That did not stop Yu Hsiou Hsu from upsetting Thanasi Kokkinakis in the First Round and any player that has won three Qualifiers to earn a place in the main draw has to be given a lot of respect.
Even then, it is a big task for Hsu to close the gap to someone who is just outside the top 10, especially with the lack of experience the 23 year old has in playing opponents of this level. He did face someone of a similar level after Qualifying for the Australian Open, but Yu Hsiou Hsu was well beaten by Alex de Minaur in the First Round in Melbourne and backing up his opening upset is a huge challenge.
Before the win in the First Round, Yu Hsiou Hsu had lost all three hard court matches he had ever played against top 100 Ranked opponents and he had not won a single set in those defeats. He did serve really well to beat Thanasi Kokkinakis, but that is a surprise considering Hsu has only won 58% of his service games and held 69% of service games played on the hard courts prior to the US Open Qualifiers beginning.
To really have those numbers stand out, it has to be noted that most of those matches would have been played against players Ranked outside the top 100 and so it feels like this is a Second Round match that should be played on Cameron Norrie's terms.
Yu Hsiou Hsu has a decent return, but will be dealing with a lefty serve that can be very productive for Cameron Norrie. The underdog was also just 2-7 in his last nine hard court matches before winning four matches at the US Open and the feeling is that Cameron Norrie is going to have Hsu under pressure on his own serve and ultimately can break down and cover a big line against this level of opponent.
Cameron Norrie has won his last ten Grand Slam matches against players Ranked outside of the top 100 in the World Rankings and three of those have been on the hard courts of Melbourne or New York City. In those, Norrie would have covered this mark in each of the last two wins and he can do the same here to back up a strong First Round win.
Alexander Zverev - 7.5 games v Daniel Altmaier: Two compatriots meet in the Second Round at the US Open and so there will be a familiarity about the tennis the opponent is expected to bring onto the court from both sides of the net.
A former US Open Runner Up, Alexander Zverev will likely be quite content with moving under the radar in the tough top half of the draw. He has moved back into a position where he is likely to return to the top 10 of the World Rankings at the end of the tournament and Alexander Zverev is very much in the race to reach the ATP World Tour Finals.
After a seriously worrying injury at the French Open in 2022, Alexander Zverev returned to action at the beginning of this season and his year can be split with the French Open of 2023 being the breaker. Before that, Zverev had been struggling to reach the kind of heights he had been used to doing, but his run to the Semi Final in Paris has sparked a very strong three months and the former World Number 2 is operating at a high level.
We still have room for improvement on the hard courts, but Alexander Zverev was a comfortable winner in the First Round and this could be a decent opponent for him in the Second Round.
That is not being disrespectful to Daniel Altmaier, but he has played his best tennis by some margin on the clay courts and is largely an average hard court player. At his best he can ride the margins to become dangerous, as we saw at the US Open last year when Altmaier pushed Jannik Sinner to five sets, but this is a player who has a relatively weak return on the surface and that does put his serve under pressure.
It says plenty that Daniel Altmaier has lost eight of his nine hard court matches played against top 100 Ranked opponents this season and he has broken in just 9% of return games played in those matches. This has allowed opponents to dig in and put him under pressure through the scoreboard and Daniel Altmaier has held 78% of his service games on the surface, something that Alexander Zverev will look to exploit.
Alexander Zverev has been serving well in the two Masters events played ahead of the US Open and that is impressive considering the lowest Ranked opponent he faced in Canada or Cincinnati was World Number 45.
When these two players met at the Australian Open in January 2022, Alexander Zverev really dominated behind his serve with 73% of points won and he held 93% of the service games played. He won 7-6, 6-1, 7-6 on the day, but that was down to the fact that Daniel Altmaier was able to save fourteen of eighteen Break Points faced.
Even then, Zverev won 44% of the return points played and the feeling is that he is playing closer to his best right now compared with earlier in the season to really put Daniel Altmaier in a tough position. Alexander Zverev can win this one in straight sets and he may find the breaks of serve to cover what looks a big line, but one he can get the better of on current form of the two players in this Second Round match.
Quick Thoughts on Other Selections: You have to believe that Stan Wawrinka can move through another Round against a Seeded player that he beat on the grass courts of Wimbledon, a surface that the Swiss player does not massively enjoy. He has been in decent hard court form and Tomas Martin Etcheverry has not, which was highlighted by a tougher than expected First Round win.
Jannik Sinner looks a real threat to the 'dream Final' that fans are hoping for and he was a dominant First Round winner- while you expect this to be closer against compatriot Lorenzo Sonego, the Sinner return could put the lower Ranked Italian under considerable pressure and especially if Sonego continues to struggle with his own return as has been the case on the hard courts this year.
There are always young American players looking to breakthrough during the various US swings on the Tour and Alex Michelsen looks to have a bright future, although beating Nicolas Jarry might be too soon. The latter has the big game that is well suited to the hard courts and can move through without needing a deciding set.
MY PICKS: Carlos Alcaraz - 7.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Arthur Fils - 1.5 Sets @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Cameron Norrie - 7.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 7.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka - 1.5 Sets @ 1.66 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jannik Sinner - 6.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Nicolas Jarry - 1.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alex De Minaur - 5.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Hubert Hurkacz - 1.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Greet Minnen - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
US Open Update: 8-13, - 13.64 Units (42 Units Staked, - 32.48% Yield)
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