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Wednesday, 30 August 2023

US Open Tennis Day 3 Picks 2023 (August 30th)

The first two days at the US Open has seen a number of upsets and the crowd once again playing their part in getting on top of players when they feel they have someone rattled.

Even then, it is sad to see veterans like Laura Siegemund feel like they are not being respected as they should be by the fans arriving to watch the tennis and it is little surprise that so many players do not enjoy this atmosphere compared to much more serene events throughout the course of the year.

Personally the US Open has been a Slam I have really enjoyed and two previous visits to the ground have been enjoyable.

Sometimes it might pay to take the Daniil Medvedev approach to the crowd, but it can be difficult for those with different personalities.


Moving into the Second Round on Day 3 at the tournament should mean players are a little more accustomed to the conditions and the atmosphere that will have to be dealt with.

Some top names will be out on the courts on Wednesday and it is also a day when there are a lot more selections compared with the first couple of days of the tournament.


Mackenzie McDonald - 1.5 sets v Borna Gojo: On paper it may have felt like a significant upset, but there were plenty of people who called for Mackenzie McDonald to upset the out of form Felix Auger-Aliassime in the First Round at the US Open. It was a result that was also expected here, but the price was plenty short considering McDonald had to withdraw during his last match in Cincinnati.

After solid runs in both Canada and Cincinnati, Mackenzie McDonald must have been a little bit frustrated that he may not have been at full health going into the US Open. While all credit has to be given to him for the four set win over Auger-Aliassime, there are still one or two questions about the McDonald overall level of fitness and the feeling is that the oddsmakers are not entirely sure either.

A competent hard court player, Mackenzie McDonald played the big points well in the First Round, although it should also be noted that he had to fend of twelve Break Points, which is a total number higher than the overall number of Break Points the American created on the day.

The serve can be vulnerable at times, but McDonald does have an 11-2 record on the hard courts against players Ranked outside the top 50, while he has won 65% of points played behind serve and held onto almost 85% of service games played in those thirteen matches.

It will give the home fans some confidence that this American player can make it through to the US Open Third Round, although Borna Gojo will need to be respected having worked his way through the Qualifiers. Much like Mackenzie McDonald, Borna Gojo will have been pleased with the way the early draw has shaped up for him and he has not had to beat any opponent Ranked higher than World Number 121 in his four wins in New York City.

Winning does give players momentum though and the Croatian has a serve that can help out of difficult situations, which is always a boost. However, Borna Gojo has not cracked the top 100 in his career and this should be a much tougher test than he has faced so far at the US Open, as long as Mackenzie McDonald is good to go.

Borna Gojo has yet to really get to grips with facing top 100 Ranked opponents on the hard courts in his career and that is largely down to poor return numbers. His serve may see him force a tie-break or two, but Mackenzie McDonald is expected to be the stronger player on the court and is capable of winning this one in three or four sets.


Stefanos Tsitsipas - 5.5 games v Dominic Stricker: It looked like it might have been a genuinely awkward First Round draw for one of the top Seeds at the US Open when Stefanos Tsitsipas was paired with Milos Raonic, but all credit has to be given to the Greek player for making relatively easy work of things.

A straight sets win early in the Grand Slam tournaments is always welcomed by those looking for a deep run in the draw, but doing so against someone with the obvious weapons that Milos Raonic has is very good news for those who support Stefanos Tsitsipas.

The first two Grand Slams in the calendar year have tended to be where Stefanos Tsitsipas has enjoyed most of his successes and he has shown he can perform on the hard courts having reached the Semi Final three times at the Australian Open before finishing Runner Up earlier this year. However, Tsitsipas has never reached the second week at the US Open and had been upset in the First Round last year, which makes the win on Monday that much more impressive.

A rematch with Christopher Eubanks will certainly draw plenty of eyes if both the American and Stefanos Tsitsipas are able to win their Second Round matches, but it would be foolish to overlook the young opponent in front of the Seeded player here.

Dominic Stricker is 21 years old and representing Switzerland, which brings pressure considering he is following in the footsteps of players like Roger Federer and Stan Wawrinka. It will be something that Stricker will have to handle, but he will have built up some confidence having come through the Qualifiers before upsetting Alexei Popyrin in the First Round.

Of course this is a different level of test for the young player, who has lost his last four matches against top 20 Ranked players since upsetting Hubert Hurkacz on the grass courts of Stuttgart. Dominic Stricker failed to take a set in Grand Slam losses to Tommy Paul and Frances Tiafoe at the French Open and Wimbledon respectively this year, while Stefanos Tsitsipas beat him in straight sets on his worst surface, grass, last year.

A lefty serve could cause problems and Stricker will want to get to the net to put Stefanos Tsitsipas under pressure, but the lower Ranked player has really had a hard time with the return against the elite players on the Tour. This is going to be another tough returning day in the office if Tsitsipas comes out like he can and the feeling is that the Number 7 Seed at the US Open will prove too good in this Second Round match.

While it is a spread that looks big considering the return issues that Stefanos Tsitsipas can have, the performance in the First Round against a big server is encouraging and he can cover the line set for this one.


Christopher Eubanks - 1.5 sets v Benjamin Bonzi: After losing early in a Challenger event played on the grass courts, Christopher Eubanks was Ranked at World Number 75 and admitted that he hated playing on the surface.

The best decision he made was to speak to Kim Clijsters and whatever the former Australian Open and US Open Champion said seemed to work.

Three impressive weeks saw Christopher Eubanks win the title in Mallorca before reaching the Quarter Final at Wimbledon and his charisma and style certainly won him plenty of fans. It also helped push into the top 30 of the World Rankings and there is a different kind of pressure on the Eubanks shoulders right now as one of the more prominent American faces at his home Grand Slam.

He looks like someone who will thrive in those conditions, but it should also be noted that Christopher Eubanks is just 4-4 on the hard courts since his amazing run at Wimbledon. Each of the four losses will feel disappointing for Christopher Eubanks, but his First Round win at the US Open was much better and this looks more than a winnable Second Round contest for him.

No one will doubt the talent of Benjamin Bonzi, who has also been an effective hard court player, but he has yet to show his best form since injury earlier in the season. That caused him to miss almost the entirety of the clay court season, including his home Grand Slam at Roland Garros, and the Frenchman is just 3-8 in all matches since returning to the Tour.

Before his First Round win in New York City, Benjamin Bonzi had won a single hard court match in a Challenger event in Winnipeg and another hard court match last week in Winston Salem. However, his numbers have not been impressive on his return with Bonzi struggling for effectiveness on the return, which in turn has added to the pressure on the serve.

The First Round win over compatriot Quentin Halys saw Bonzi edge the narrow margins, but this is a significantly tougher test for him as he will likely have to deal with the home crowd as much as the opponent on the other side of the net. Christopher Eubanks used that to his advantage in beating Benjamin Bonzi in Washington last year and the former is now much more confident about his abilities on the court.

Overall his hard court numbers are not that impressive, but Christopher Eubanks has a serve that can really build scoreboard pressure on his opponent, as we saw at Wimbledon. If Benjamin Bonzi was at his healthiest and in better form, he would be a real threat, but Christopher Eubanks is expected to deal with this opponent in his current situation and he can win this match in three or four sets.


Tommy Paul - 1.5 sets v Roman Safiullin: A win over Carlos Alcaraz in one of the two Masters events played ahead of the US Open will have given Tommy Paul a real boost in confidence as he looks to surpass his best ever performance at his home Grand Slam event.

He had never played beyond the First Round before reaching the Third Round in 2022 and Tommy Paul backed up that run by reaching the Semi Final at the Australian Open in January. The two solid runs in Canada and Cincinnati underlines his development into a solid hard court player and Tommy Paul is very much in the midst of his best year on the Tour with high hopes of cracking the top 10.

The American did not play as well as he would have hoped in Paris and London in the other two Grand Slam events played this year, but Paul will have the home crowd behind him and will be keen on putting together a strong run here.

He might have hoped for a better Second Round match than facing Roman Safiullon who reached a career high World Ranking last month following a run to the Wimbledon Quarter Final. If Roman Safiullon had played a bit more tennis in the time between Wimbledon and the US Open, he may even have pushed his way into the Seeding spots at the tournament, but two losses is all that Safiullon has had to show for his efforts since London.

Roman Safiullon is capable of performing on the hard courts, but he has not really played many of the best players on the Tour on this surface. In his career, Safiullon is just 2-8 when it comes to matches against top 50 Ranked players on the hard courts, including being 0-2 in 2023 and this is a big test for him in front of a crowd that will be supporting the opponent.

The struggles have been on the return of serve in those matches and it is the return where Tommy Paul is expected to have a big enough edge to win this Second Round match.

You have to respect how dangerous Roman Safiullon could potentially be at his best, but we have not seen that consistently on the hard courts.

He would have been very welcoming of the First Round draw, but Safiullon will know this is a considerable step up in class and Tommy Paul is expected to work his way through without the need for a deciding set.


Frances Tiafoe - 5.5 games v Sebastian Ofner: A relatively disappointing build towards the US Open has perhaps allowed Frances Tiafoe to fly under the radar somewhat with a number of other American players perhaps stealing the headlines.

That might not be the worst thing in the world for Frances Tiafoe who reached the Semi Final here twelve months ago and will be looking to quietly get on with his business. He was given a pretty routine First Round match and Frances Tiafoe is a considerable favourite to beat Sebastian Ofner in the Second Round on Wednesday.

On paper this does not feel like a straight-forward match against someone who had a good run at the French Open and who is very close to cracking the top 50 in the World Rankings, but suffice to say that Sebastian Ofner is not at his most comfortable on the clay courts.

The Austrian was beaten in his sole build up match for the US Open in Winston Salem and Sebastian Ofner had lost four hard court matches in a row before his First Round win. Add in the fact that Ofner is just 2-11 in his career against top 100 Ranked opponents on this surface and he had lost eleven matches in a row against those opponents, while dropping 22/23 sets, before his win over Nuno Borges in the First Round and you begin to realise what kind of a gap Sebastian Ofner needs to bridge in this match.

Frances Tiafoe can be guilty of sometimes playing down to the level the opponent is showing and he can be a little erratic with shot choices as he bids to entertain the crowd. That isn't too bad in most cases, but Tiafoe needs to make sure he is not spending too long on the court in the early Rounds at this Grand Slam if he is going to have a chance to go at least one step further than 2022.

A couple of disappointing losses to players Ranked outside the top 50 in the World Rankings in Canada and Cincinnati will be a concern, but prior to that Frances Tiafoe had a 13-1 record against those opponents this year on the hard courts. His numbers in the sixteen matches played against opponents outside of the top 50 have been very strong ahead of the US Open and Frances Tiafoe was a strong First Round winner over another of those.

This match is expected to be more competitive, but the home player can use the energy from the stands to work his way to a relatively comfortable place in the Third Round of the final Grand Slam of the season.

MY PICKS: Mackenzie McDonald - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Christopher Eubanks - 1.5 Sets @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tommy Paul - 1.5 Sets @ 1.66 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Frances Tiafoe - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Adrian Mannarino - 1.5 Sets @ 1.70 Coral (2 Units)
Casper Ruud - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Coral (2 Units)
Marton Fucsovics - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ben Shelton - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Laura Davis - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)
Coco Gauff - 4.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)
Elena Rybakina - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Victoria Azarenka - 4.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)

US Open Update: 5-4, + 0.20 Units (18 Units Staked, + 1.11% Yield)

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