Out of the four Grand Slam events, the scheduling of the US Open always seems to make it feel like we see a few more surprising results early in the tournament.
That has been the case on Day 1 of the tournament with the First Round underway and a number of Seeds have been eliminated, while others had difficulties in winning matches.
It is perhaps the main reason that I have talked myself out of some selections and even then it was a tough opening day for the Tennis Picks.
Day 2 is another relatively quiet day for the selections, but much more is expected from them than the earlier Picks were able to give back.
Jannik Sinner - 8.5 games v Yannick Hanfmann: Winning one of the two Masters events played in the lead up to the US Open will have given Jannik Sinner a boost in confidence and this is clearly a genuine threat to the hopes of fans wanting to see Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic meet in the US Open Final in a couple of weeks time.
He has been a solid hard court player since the start of the 2021 season and Jannik Sinner came very close to beating Carlos Alcaraz at the US Open twelve months ago. Taking the next step at the Grand Slam level is the challenge for Sinner, but he is more than capable of doing that and it will take a big effort to put him out of the tournament.
It is very unlikely that Yannick Hanfmann will have the tennis to do that against Jannik Sinner in this First Round contest in the Night Session on Louis Armstrong on Day 2 of the tournament. While Yannick Hanfmann has reached a career high World Ranking last month, the most effective tennis has been played on the clay courts and it has been a considerable challenge for the German when he has been faced by the top 100 opponents on this surface.
Over the course of the season, Yannick Hanfmann has lost all five matches played against top 100 Ranked opponents on the hard courts and it has to be a concern that none of those have been against the likes of Jannik Sinner.
The serve has not been nearly as effective as Yannick Hanfmann would have hoped in those matches against stronger opponents, while he is simply not able to find enough quality returns to make up for those struggles. Against an opponent like Jannik Sinner, it is going to be very difficult for Yannick Hanfmann to have an impact to win the match, although it is a different question when it comes to covering this spread.
It is a wide number and one that a break of serve or two for Yannick Hanfmann would make it almost impossible for Jannik Sinner to cover.
However, the Italian has all of the tools to break down the Hanfmann game over the course of two hours on the court and he should enjoy the atmosphere on this court. The quality of tennis is not in doubt and a clinical match can be produced by Jannik Sinner which will see him get into a position to earn enough break points that enables him to cover this mark.
Stan Wawrinka - 1.5 sets v Yoshihito Nishioka: You may wonder what kind of motivating factors keep Stan Wawrinka out competing on the tennis courts around the world, but it is clearly something he loves to do. At 38 years old, Stan Wawrinka is not the same player that won multiple Grand Slam titles, but he still believes he has more to give and that is the main reason he is still competing.
A couple of wins in Cincinnati will have given Stan Wawrinka some confidence and he has produced some decent numbers on the hard courts this year.
The form has been decent enough to take Stan Wawrinka back into the top 50 of the World Rankings having begun the season at Number 148 and this looks a First Round match that he will be expected to win. He looks to have landed in a decent little section of the draw and Wawrinka will be looking to at least reach the Third Round where Jannik Sinner will be expected to stand in his way.
Overlooking Yoshihito Nishioka would be a mistake and this is a player who is capable of producing an upset in any tournament he takes part in.
However, Yoshihito Nishioka has had a difficult year and he has lost eight of his last nine matches on the hard courts. His preparation for the US Open has not been impressive and Nishioka has not really looked the same player after picking up an injury at the French Open.
You would have expected better from Yoshihito Nishioka when it comes to the return of serve, but that has not always been the case when looking at his performances against top 100 Ranked opponents on this surface. The serve can be vulnerable at times and Nishioka has lost ten of sixteen hard court matches on the har courts against top 100 Ranked opponents this year.
The Stan Wawrinka return is not exactly a dominant part of his tennis, but the Swiss player has the stronger serve of the two players. Confidence levels can be a difference maker in these kind of matches and Wawrinka looks to have a bit more belief in his tennis right now and can find a way to work his way through to the Second Round in three or four sets.
Jessica Pegula - 4.5 games v Camila Giorgi: One American won the Cincinnati Masters when Coco Gauff took home the title, while another one in Montreal where the Canadian Masters were played.
That player, Jessica Pegula, will enter the US Open as the World Number 3 and there will be plenty of fans arriving at the grounds expecting her to have a very deep run at the US Open. She has been a late bloomer on the WTA Tour and at 29 years old Jessica Pegula may be entering the peak years of her career, while a real breakthrough at Grand Slam level may open the door for so much more to come.
Jessica Pegula has reached the Quarter Final in six of the last eleven Grand Slam tournaments played, but she has not yet been able to take the next step and play in a Semi Final. The defeat to eventual Wimbledon Champion Marketa Vondrousova will have frustrated Jessica Pegula considering she was a point away from taking a double break lead in the deciding set in that Quarter Final, while the defeat to Victoria Azarenka in the Quarter Final at the Australian Open will have been in a match that Pegula will have expected to win.
Those demons will have to be exorcised later in this tournament, but Jessica Pegula has shown she can work her way through to the second week of these Grand Slam events.
A First Round match against Camila Giorgi is going to be a tough challenge for Jessica Pegula and especially if the Italian is anywhere near her best form. She did come through the Qualifiers and then won a main draw match in Montreal, but Giorgi was forced to withdraw during her First Qualifying Round match in Cincinnati.
For all of her talents, Camila Giorgi has lost nine of her last ten matches against top 20 Ranked players on the hard courts and that includes losses in all four matches played this season. Camila Giorgi's serve has been vulnerable in those matches in 2023, while her aggressive style of tennis can lead to plenty of errors and Giorgi has not returned nearly well enough in those defeats.
A poor record against Jessica Pegula will not inspire much more confidence and it should be noted that Camila Giorgi would not have covered with this handicap start in any of those four defeats to top 20 Ranked opponents on this surface in 2023.
Jessica Pegula is a perfect 12-0 against players Ranked outside the top 50 on the hard courts this season and she would have covered this handicap mark in eleven of those wins. The Arthur Ashe crowd will be looking for a strong start from the American who is considered one of the favourites to win the title and Jessica Pegula can respond in kind with a strong win against a decent opponent.
Qinwen Zheng - 4.5 games v Nadia Podoroska: There are a lot of very competitive matches in the First Round of the women's Singles at the US Open, but this feels like an opportunity for Qinwen Zheng to get off to a strong start.
There is a lot of potential to be fulfilled by Qinwen Zheng as long as she can stay healthy going forward and she has some solid hard court numbers including picking up three wins in the Masters events played in preparation for the US Open.
Both of the defeats have been to players Ranked higher than herself and Qinwen Zheng is 9-2 on the hard courts in matches where she has been the higher Ranked player in the match. The numbers have been impressive in those eleven matches and it looks a good chance for Zheng to make a strong start against someone who has not enjoyed playing on the hard courts.
Nadia Podoroska is a clay court specialist and she is just 1-4 in matches on the hard courts against opponents Ranked inside the top 100. The sole win was earned in Cleveland last week, but Podoroska has had some poor numbers against the better players on the Tour and she would not have made use of this many games on the handicap in the four losses.
She did upset Christina McHale on the hard courts of the Australian Open in 2021, although Nadia Podoroska was the higher Ranked player of the two on the day. However, three other losses have been suffered against top 100 Ranked players in the Grand Slams played on the hard courts and Qinwen Zheng should have too much in this First Round contest.
MY PICKS: Jannik Sinner - 8.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka - 1.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jessica Pegula - 4.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Qinwen Zheng - 4.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
US Open Update: 1-4, - 6.5 Units (10 Units Staked, - 65% Yield)
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