Tennis Picks 2013 (May 24th)

The big four in the Men's game has finally been completed... That's right, Roger Federer has joined Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal on Twitter and it is going to be interesting to see how much interaction he has on the site.

I am surprised it took him so long considering Tiger Woods was a long-term friend and would surely have advocated joining the site to him. There have been parody accounts, but now the real man is on Twitter, I am interested to see which of the big four end up having the most 'followers' which is a good indication of their popularity.

We will also see the draw for the French Open being made on Friday morning and I will likely have my preview and Sunday picks up on the blog before the Champions League Football Final takes place on Saturday evening.

The picks this week haven't had a lot of success, but fortunately Juan Monaco is still in the tournament in Dusseldorf as my sole outright pick this week. Out of the four players left in that tournament, it is no surprise that Monaco is the favourite to go on and win the event, although he has to get through a couple of awkward matches to do so.

Juan Monaco - 4.5 games v Guido Pella: I may be taking a risk by backing Juan Monaco as a pick considering I did pick him as the outright pick from Dusseldorf, but I do like his match up against his compatriot and I do fancy Monaco will win with room to spare.

Monaco is actually a strong defender on the clay courts and I can see him exposing errors in the Guido Pella game as the younger Argentine has to hit closer and closer to the lines. I also think Monaco is the best clay court player that Pella would have played this week and I do think he will be able to force more errors and really hurt the backhand side of the left hander.

There are definitely signs of improvement in the Pella game, but beating Monaco on a clay court is not something I would expect of him right now. I believe the older, more experienced player will be able to come through a tough first set before moving away from Pella.

Monaco to win this one 64, 63 is what I believe we will see.

Romina Oprandi - 2.5 games v Shuai Peng: Romina Oprandi has shown some decent form on the clay courts in the last month and I think she is going to be too strong for Shuai Peng in this Semi Final match to be played in Brussels.

The players met recently at the Portugal Open that resulted in a comfortable win for Oprandi and there are likely to be a few breaks of serve in this one. However, the Swiss player is definitely finding effective returns of serve in her recent matches and I expect that to help here find a break more in each set of this match.

My only concern is that the French Open draw is coming out early in the day and it may have the players perhaps turning their attention to Paris already, but I think Oprandi comes through 75, 64.

MY PICKS: Juan Monaco - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Romina Oprandi - 2.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-5, - 8.30 Units (12 Units Staked, - 69.17% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2013 (May 22nd)

We are just two days away from the draw for the second Grand Slam of the season, but the big news ahead of that is the fact that Andy Murray will not be taking part in Paris.

It is clear that he has been suffering from some sort of hip/lower back pain and I guess this will make a lot of sense going forward as Murray doesn't have a great chance of winning at Roland Garros. That is not disrespecting how good a player Murray is, but it is simply the fact that too many players could find a way past him in my opinion and he is serving himself very well by getting ready for Wimbledon and the US Open later this year.

I do think that if we were heading into Wimbledon, Murray would have found a way to take his place in the draw so I don't have concerns that he will miss the grass court season. However, it is very likely that he will be the Number 3 seed at Wimbledon and that will likely mean beating two of the big three in the Men's game to end the long British wait for a home winner.

That is a tough ask, but something that Murray will feel he is capable of doing if he can get his rest ahead of the grass court season which will begin on June 10th. The next question has to be if Murray will go back to Queens where he is scheduled to open up his grass preparation and we will then get an idea as to how he is feeling ahead of Wimbledon.


In the meantime, there are a lot of qualifiers going on at Roland Garros in the next few days as players get ready to enter the main draw. Hopefully the rain will stay away from Paris in the coming two weeks, although it has been cold and wet forecasts for the rest of the week.


Aljaz Bedene v Tobias Kamke: Aljaz Bedene entered the main draw as a Lucky Loser and has opened up the tournament for himself by knocking out Nikolay Davydenko in the First Round yesterday. He is rewarded with a much more winnable match in the Second Round as he faces one of the home players in Tobias Kamke, a winner over Benjamin Becker in the previous Round.

Neither player has had a lot of success in the main level tournaments on the clay courts, although Bedene recently won a Challenger event in Rome and has more wins on the surface at the lower level than Kamke does.

I believe Bedene has the better serve of the two players, but both can be very inconsistent with their play off the ground and this could come down to the player making the least errors that secures the win.

Using the success in Rome last week, I think Bedene can win this one, possibly in three sets.


Tommy Haas - 4.5 games v Ivan Dodig: The slower courts don't favour the game that Ivan Dodig produces and I think Tommy Haas can come through this Second Round match without too many problems as long as he is taking the tournament seriously.

I have little reason to think that Haas wouldn't want to play well in front of his home support and having a run here ahead of the French Open wouldn't be a bad thing for the veteran. He is unlikely to win at Roland Garros, but the chance to improve his Ranking for Wimbledon has to be in Haas' mind, a tournament he can certainly have a lot more success.

We know that Dodig has a big serve and can certainly hit through the court with his forehand, but the slower courts means his errors can begin to flow at times and I think he is another player that will begin to look forward to the grass court season which begins in three weeks time.

The Croatian had a solid win in the First Round here, but a focused Haas should be able to come through 64 63.


MY PICKS: Aljaz Bedene @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tommy Haas - 4.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-3, - 4.30 Units (8 Units Staked, - 53.75% Yield)

NBA Play Offs Conference Finals Picks 2013

I am pretty sure that not many would have picked the Memphis Grizzlies to get through to the Western Conference Finals, at least not at the start of the Play Offs. However, they have taken advantage of a couple of banged up teams to move through to face the San Antonio Spurs, a team that a lot predicted would be back in the Western Conference Finals after their collapse at this stage last season.

San Antonio are the favourites in my opinion to come through an win this series as they have the experience and previous Play Off success to fall back on, while Memphis are in unchartered territory. My other concern for the Grizzlies is that they have had the fortune of playing teams with significant injuries that have made them weaker and San Antonio are certainly healthier than the Clippers or the Thunder.

I'd fancy San Antonio to come through in 6 tough games.

The other side has seen the Indiana Pacers come through to take on the Miami Heat and this was the match up that everyone was looking forward to at the start of the season. Indiana had a 2-1 lead against the Heat in the Eastern Conference Semi Finals and Miami were struggling a little before putting together three straight wins and a lot of people would have thought that experience would give the Pacers a better chance in any rematch.

However, Danny Granger has missed most of the season and that has left the Pacers as an inconsistent offense with no one scorer they can really rely on when it comes down to the crunch. Indiana remain very good defensively, while their size is definitely going to give Miami plenty to think about when it comes to grabbing significant boards.

Indiana also won 2 of the 3 regular season games too this season and so there will be no fear on their side that they can upset the Heat. However, I think Miami have a little too much talent and it would be surprising if they are not back in the NBA Finals for the third year in succession and in with a real chance of defending their crown earned last season.

The Pacers are likely to make life tough for Miami at times in this series, but I think the Heat are likely to get through in 5 or 6 games.

May 21st

Memphis Grizzlies @ San Antonio Spurs Game 2 Pick: It wasn't the most surprising of blow outs in Game 1 as the Memphis Grizzlies struggled with their mental pressure of being in the first Conference Finals for the franchise. They never really got their teeth stuck in the game and were beaten by 22 points.

I think Game 2 will be a lot closer, but I still think San Antonio can make the necessary adjustments to their game plan and get more production from Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili to cover again.

There is a chance the game goes over the total again, but I think the Spurs pull 2-0 ahead with a win of around 7-10 points.


May 22nd
Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat Game 1 Pick: The long lay off for the Miami Heat didn't help them in Game 1 of the Semi Final series with the Chicago Bulls, but perceived disrespectful comments from Frank Vogel and last season's tough Semi Final series should have kept them much sharper.

While the Pacers have the size and solid defense to cause some problems, their offense can be sketchy at best, particularly on the road. If Chris Bosh keeps playing at a high level, it will open things up in the paint for the Heat and I can see Miami getting off to a good start.


May 24th
Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat Game 2 Pick: Too many turnovers and offensive fouls from both teams in Game 1 made it a bit of a stop-start game, and I also think the quick turnaround will help the Miami Heat offense after their long lay off before Game 1.

I expect Indiana will also have gained some confidence from Game 1 too and they can certainly score against this defense. With the over being 6-1 in the last 7 between the teams, I do think this one will go over, although the total points have been increasing in the last couple of days.

MY PICKS: 21/05 San Antonio Spurs - 5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
22/05 Miami Heat - 8 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
24/05 Miami Heat-Indiana Pacers Over 182.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)


Conference Finals: 0-2, - 2 Units


Play Off Semi Finals: 10-11, - 1.49 Units
First Round Play Offs: 21-18, + 2.19 Units
April Final: 6-9, - 3.40 Units
March Final: 20-16-1, + 3.08 Units
February Final: 6-3, + 2.61 Units
January Final: 5-14, - 9.31 Units

December Final: 17-7-1, + 9.19 Units

November Final: 13-8-1, + 8.03 Units

Season 2013: 98-86-3, + 10.90 Units
Season 2012: 79-53-1, + 27.48 Units

Tennis Picks 2013 (May 21st)

There is a lot of rain around in Europe at the moment, particularly in the north of France and Belgium where a couple of the WTA tournaments are being played this week. It could also be a slight problem for the organisers of the French Open as it is expected to rain every day in Paris up until the weekend meaning a lot of the qualifiers for the next Grand Slam could be forced indoors.

Hopefully the tournaments this week will get back on track on Tuesday and I will be looking for a couple of guys coming out of Challenger events last week to push on with wins in the main tour events.


Gael Monfils - 2.5 games v Santiago Giraldo: Santiago Giraldo is very comfortable on the slower clay court surfaces, but he has the game that can be a little erratic at times and I am expecting him to give his opponents some chances to break his serve.

That is an area that could be taken advantage of by Gael Monfils as the Frenchman looks to get himself moving back up the Rankings after an injury plagued twelve months. Monfils is ranked outside of the top 100 and had to rely on a Wild Card to play here in Nice and at the French Open next weekend.

Monfils, however, has looked to build his confidence by playing in a Challenger event last week and actually went on to win in Bordeaux. A win in the Challenger level of events won't be what Monfils would be expecting from his career, but he has needed to get some wins under his belt and that could be enough to propel him back up the Rankings.

This won't be easy for Monfils, but getting the home crowd backing him and with the confidence from last week may just see him over the line in this one.


David Goffin v Grega Zemjla: Another player that had a good week in Bordeaux was David Goffin who reached the Semi Final where he was beaten by eventual winner Gael Monfils.

The last twelve months have been a real eye-opener for Goffin after it seemed he had the world at his feet following a Fourth Round appearance at the French Open where he pushed Roger Federer.

However, it hasn't been so good for the Belgian player when the big crowds are no longer watching his matches, and he hasn't had a lot of wins under his belt this season. Even with that in mind, he could be facing the correct opponent in Grega Zemjla who has also spent more time losing matches this season and one that has struggled to turn his form on the clay courts when it comes to main tour events.

It wouldn't surprise me if the match went the distance, but Goffin's run to the Semi Final last week may stand him in good stead to win this one.


MY PICKS: Gael Monfils - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
David Goffin @ 1.73 William Hill (2 Units)
Christina McHale - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet 365 (2 Units) To be completed from Monday

Weekly Update: 0-1, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2013 (May 20th)

I didn't make too many picks last week as I just felt the tournament in Rome was a little unpredictable... My gut feeling was correct, especially as all five picks failed to come off, and so I was glad to have stepped out for the most part.

It also goes without saying that there is a possibility this will be a quiet week, although I will make picks wherever I see fit. I have added one outright pick for the week which can be found here


Albert Ramos - 3.5 games v Victor Hanescu: Both of these players will consider the clay courts as their favourite surface, but I think the younger man can prevail in the contest.

Albert Ramos has certainly shown the more consistency in recent matches compared with Victor Hanescu, although the latter has reached a couple of Quarter Finals in the smaller clay court tournaments himself.

I think both players will feel confident behind their own serve, but I just feel that Ramos is perhaps a little more solid on that front and that can prove to be the difference in the match. While Hanescu certainly can serve effectively, he does tend to throw in at least one poor game per set and this could easily end with a 64 64 win for the Spaniard.


Christina McHale - 3.5 games v Lauren Davis: These two young American players will likely be looking forward to the Tour moving away from the clay courts in the next couple of weeks, but for now they have a chance to move through to the Second Round of a clay court tournament.

Of the two, Christina McHale has shown more form on the surface compared with Lauren Davis, particularly when it comes to the main tour level events. That includes reaching the Third Round at the French Open when she beat Davis enroute and I think McHale's experience will likely be the key to her beating her compatriot again.

Like many WTA Tour matches, especially on clay courts, I expect a few breaks of serve but for McHale to have come through with a break more in each set at least.


MY PICKS: Albert Ramos - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet 365 (2 Units)
Christina McHale - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet 365 (2 Units)

Tennis Outright Picks (May 20-26)

The back to back Masters tournaments have been completed and the path to the French Open has been set for most of the big names in the Men's and Women's draws.

Rafael Nadal won both tournaments in Madrid and Rome and that has enabled him to move back up to the World Number 4 Ranking and also avoids the possibility of him having to face one of his main rivals as early as the Quarter Finals at Roland Garros. Since losing the Final in Monte Carlo, Nadal has won three straight tournaments and will surely go into the French Open as the favourite to hold on to his crown as the 'King of Clay'.

He dismantled Roger Federer in the Final of Rome and although Federer was positive about his state of mind going into the French Open, I don't consider the 2009 Champion to be a real threat to win the tournament this season. He has failed to win a title this season, the first time he goes into Paris without a title since 2000, and Federer would certainly be a big underdog to beat either Nadal or Novak Djokovic if they meet in the French Open.


The Woman's draw also looks like it will be fairly predictable as Serena Williams continues to dominate all of her rivals. Serena won both the big events in Madrid and Rome and the undisputed World Number 1 has not lost since the Final of Doha back in February.

The French Open has not been kind to Williams in the past, but I would find it tough to look beyond her at the moment. If Serena is surprised, as she was twelve months ago, I would guess Maria Sharapova or Victoria Azarenka are the most likely winners and there aren't too many other players that are in this draw that have shown any form to suggest they can win a Grand Slam title.


The draw for the French Open will be made on Friday with the tournament to begin next Sunday. That means most of the big names are taking a week to get their minds and bodies ready for the two week Grand Slam slog, although there are still four tournaments taking place this week.

I am only making an outright pick from one of those events and I couldn't make a strong case for any player in the other events taking place this week.


ATP Dusseldorf
This is the first time that the tournament in Dusseldorf is in a traditional form as it was the home of the World Tennis Team Championships in previous seasons. The two home players, Tommy Haas and Philipp Kohlschreiber will both feel they can win this inaugural tournament, but they are both in the tougher bottom half of the draw.

Both the German players are in the top three of the outright markets this week, but I think it could make more sense to back Juan Monaco, the player splitting the two home players in the market.

Monaco hasn't had the best of seasons, but he has shown some signs of getting back to form in recent weeks. The clay courts remain Monaco's best surface and he has been beaten in close matches by players that have gone on to show some very good form in his last two tournaments.

This time, Monaco is given a decent start to the tournament here with a bye through to the Second Round and then facing an opponent that he would be a big favourite. The Quarter Final could pose problems if he goes up against Nikolay Davydenko, a player that has a strong head to head record against Monaco and is certainly capable of outhitting him off the ground.

However, if Monaco can get through that test, he can go all the way at a venue where he previously won with Argentina in 2010. I do think Monaco is worth having a small interest in to win the event here this week at the prices available.


MY PICKS: Juan Monaco @ 5.00 Bwin (1 Unit)


Rome Picks: 0-5, - 10 Units (10 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Season 2013: + 24.48 Units (569 Units Staked, + 4.30% Yield)

Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

Weekend Football Picks (May 19th)

It is the final day of the Premier League season and it is one where a number of famous faces from the English game will be moving on, most notably Sir Alex Ferguson.

You have to be aware about motivation at this point of the season and it can be a bit of a minefield with some players beginning to think about where they are going to be sunning themselves on a beach next week.


Manchester City v Norwich City Pick: It has been rumoured that the Manchester City players were very happy to see the back of Roberto Mancini earlier this week and they did respond with a comfortable 0-2 win at Reading on Tuesday night.

This looks like the perfect chance to end their season with some positive memories as they are facing a Norwich City team that has been very poor on their travels this season and one that secured their Premier League future last weekend.

I am expecting an attacking Manchester City side to get stuck into their opponents and I do think Norwich may just have relaxed a little bit after beating West Brom at Carrow Road. The Canaries have conceded a lot of goals in their away games this season including heavy losses at Liverpool and Manchester United and I think Manchester City win this one by a couple of goals.


Tottenham Hotspur v Sunderland Pick: There is nothing that Tottenham Hotspur can really do about whether they finish in the top four or not as they are relying on Newcastle United to get some sort of a result against Arsenal in the North East. However, the home team will know anything less than three points in this game will give them no chance at all and I expect them to do that at the very least.

Tottenham have been scoring a fair few goals of late and they seem to be facing Sunderland at the right time. The away team are now safe in the Premier League and they are missing a lot of their main attacking talent, while their motivation is gone. Paolo Di Canio has demanded his players give a full effort in the game, but it remains the point that Sunderland have lost 5 of their last 6 away games in the Premier League, were thumped 6-1 at Villa Park in their latest away game, and many of the players will be aware that big changes will be coming in the off-season.

Those factors could see Sunderland struggle to contain Tottenham, but all the prices have been adjusted because the home team 'needs' the win.

Instead, I think it makes more sense for Gareth Bale to be named 'Man of the Match' as he is likely to play an integral part of any win Spurs can manage, while he has been scoring plenty of winning goals for them himself. After winning all the personal awards you can this season, Bale will be high in the thoughts of the 'Man of the Match' award and you have to think he would likely get it if he is on the scoresheet.


Wigan Athletic v Aston Vila Pick: The Wigan Athletic fans have enjoyed the highs and the disappointment of the lows in the last week as their side won the FA Cup, but were also relegated from the Premier League.

I can't imagine them rolling over here, but it has to be a real shock to the system of the players that will be playing their third game in a week and I think Aston Villa could spring the surprise win.

Aston Villa have been playing a lot better to close the season when they secured their place in the Premier League and even in the absence of Christian Benteke, they certainly look a side capable of scoring goals. Villa have won 3 of their last 4 away games in the Premier League, including at struggling sides Reading, Stoke City and Norwich City, and they have the pace to exploit tired Wigan legs.

The side also have a strong record at the DW Stadium having been unbeaten in their last 6 visits to this stadium. Last season, this fixture ended goalless, but Aston Villa had won 4 straight before that and I can see them ending their season with a flourish.


MY PICKS: Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.73 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Gareth Bale win 'Man of the Match' @ 3.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Aston Villa @ 4.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)


May Update: 5-7, - 0.80 Units (14 Units Staked, - 5.71% Yield)

April Final: 10-21, - 9.15 Units (45 Units Staked, - 20.33% Yield)
March Final: 16-20, + 7.43 Units (55 Units Staked, + 13.51% Yield)
February Final: 14-23, - 2.81 Units (48 Units Staked, - 5.85% Yield)
January Final: 10-22, - 10.89 Units (45 Units Staked, - 24.2% Yield)
December Final: 17-24-1, - 0.83 Units (53 Units Staked, - 0.02 % Yield)
November Final: 8-21, - 8.25 Units (37 Units Staked, - 22.3% Yield)
October Final: 9-9, + 5.44 Units (27 Units Staked, 20.1% Yield)
September Final: 17-11, + 21.19 Units (46 Units Staked, 46.1% Yield)
August Final: 12-13, + 1.29 Units (40 Units Staked, 3.22% Yield)

Season 2012/13: + 3.42 Units (396 Units Staked, + 1.63% Yield)