tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-46724956530376734462024-03-18T03:02:02.245+00:00Dav Aulak's SportsThis is my little corner on the net where I can offer my thoughts on a number of sports, while I also make picks from upcoming games.
Regular picks are made from the football (soccer), tennis, NFL/College Football and NBA Basketball.
I also devote a spot entirely to Manchester United, my first love in life, called 'United Corner' where I express my views on all things concerning this wonderful club.
I hope you enjoy your time here.Dav Aulakhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05567080212652977095noreply@blogger.comBlogger3795125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4672495653037673446.post-30102962008134558902024-03-13T16:51:00.003+00:002024-03-13T16:51:58.568+00:00Indian Wells Masters Tennis Picks 2024 (Wednesday 13th March)<div>One more game from Jasmine Paolini and it would been another positive day at Indian Wells, but instead it is a day when the swing has been the other way.</div><div><br /></div><div>At least Caroline Wozniacki avoided the collapse in the first set that might have swung the match entirely in the other direction as she allowed a 5-1 lead disappear and headed for a medical timeout.</div><div><br />Fortunately she rallied and it was Angelique Kerber who was struggling by the end of the match after her strongest week back on the Tour.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>We head towards the business end of the tournament and this looks to be the last really busy day at Indian Wells.</div><div><br /></div><div>There are some very good looking matches heading out to the court and the Tennis Picks from the day can be read below.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Tommy Paul - 4.5 games </b>v Luca Nardi: Not every Lucky Loser will be able to make the kind of impact Luca Nardi has had at the Indian Wells Masters and his upset against Novak Djokovic means the Italian will crack the top 100 of the World Rankings for the first time.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">He was a huge underdog in that Third Round match, which is no surprise, and there has been very little evidence from the hard court tennis played that Luca Nardi was going to be capable of competing with Novak Djokovic, never mind actually beating him.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Before the main draw in Indian Wells, the highest Ranked players Luca Nardi had faced this year was World Number 112 David Goffin and World Number 121 Sumit Nagal and the Italian managed to win just one set across those two matches.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Now he has beaten Novak Djokovic and Zhizhen Zhang, both in three sets, and Luca Nardi will be hoping to avoid an 'after the Lord Mayor's show' type of performance in the Fourth Round.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">He is not helped by the fact he is facing Tommy Paul who has been enjoying a very strong 2024 season.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">The American has won a title in Dallas and reached the Final in Delray Beach and Tommy Paul has looked very good in winning his opening two matches at Indian Wells. Those victories have been against players significantly Ranked higher than the one he will be facing in the Fourth Round and Tommy Paul has been serving and returning effectively in this tournament.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Tommy Paul's hard court numbers in 2024 have been very impressive and it will be tough for Luca Nardi to match the efforts of beating Novak Djokovic.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Serving well will help, but Paul is likely going to keep the Lucky Loser under pressure and that can give the World Number 17 an opportunity to wear him down.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Taylor Fritz - 2.5 games </b>v Holger Rune: A bye and a walkover helped Holger Rune through to the Third Round where he was a solid winner over Lorenzo Musetti.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">The World Number 7 will be well aware that the challenge increases greatly in this Fourth Round against Taylor Fritz, the 2022 Indian Wells Masters Champion and a player looking to close back in on a place in the top ten of the World Rankings.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">He won the title in Delray Beach and reached the Australian Open Quarter Final, but there has long been a feeling that Taylor Fritz should be destined for even more. The serve continues to be a huge weapon for the top American and this season Fritz has been backing that up with stronger returning.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">The two wins in Indian Wells had to be expected and, much like Holger Rune, this is a considerable step upwards in terms of level of opponent.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Holger Rune may not look like a player with a huge serve, but he is very good at protecting this shot and is a better server than some may think. The problem this season has been the lack of consistent production when it comes to the return of serve and tha may end up being the difference between the two players on the day.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Last year Taylor Fritz was able to get the better of the returning numbers when beating Holger Rune in Miami and the conditions here may just suit the Fritz game a little more than in Florida.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Their meeting in Miami was closer than the final score may indicate, but Taylor Fritz can frank that twelve months later and he can get the better of the return in moving into another Indian Wells Quarter Final.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Casper Ruud - 3.5 games</b> v Gael Monfils: All credit has to be given to the veteran Gael Monfils who continues to flash some of his very best tennis.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">His win over Cameron Norrie has to be respected, but the Frenchman was out on the court for over three hours and this is another step upwards.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Casper Ruud is hard to trust to cover this kind of spread against a top player- he is a quality player, but the return game can be a little inconsistent on the hard courts and that will be an issue if Gael Monfils is really serving as well as he can.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">However, you have to figure some fatigue is going to be at play and Casper Ruud can keep the pressure on with his own serve working effectively in the conditions. He should have an opportunity to hit through Monfils, as athletic and mobile as the latter is, and that should give Casper Ruud the advantage as he moves into another Quarter Final.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Aryna Sabalenka - 5.5 games </b>v Emma Navarro: We have yet to see Aryna Sabalenka produce her consistent best throughout one match, but the Australian Open Champion continues to plunder her way through the Indian Wells draw.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">She will be tested by an ever improving Emma Navarro, although the concern for the American is that she has fallen away in some matches when things have turned against her.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Emma Navarro has a decent serve and she has solid groundstrokes, but the question is how she will deal with the obvious power edge coming from the other side of the court. Frustrating Aryna Sabalenka by hitting her marks on the serve will be key for Navarro, but you have to give the World Number 2 an edge when she is able to get into rallies on the return.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Aryna Sabalenka will attack the Navarro second serve, while her own serve is one that can offer up a lot of short balls.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br />As long as Sabalenka keeps the error count down, she should be able to keep some sustained pressure on Emma Navarro and that can see her wear down the home player.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Coco Gauff - 4.5 games </b>v Elise Mertens: Heading into the Australian Open Semi Final, Coco Gauff was motoring at a very, very high level.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">However, the defeat to Aryna Sabalenka has sparked a relative downturn in level and over the last month it has been much harder work for the US Open Champion.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">She has found a way to win matches, but Gauff has not been able to cover some very big spreads and that makes it a little more difficult to trust her at this mark.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">In saying that, Coco Gauff has found a way to put the pressure on the Elise Mertens serve and she has won all three previous matches against this opponent. The last two wins would have seen her cover this mark, even though the win at the US Open was earned in three sets, and the American can get the better of this opponent again.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Elise Mertens will be playing with confidence after beating Naomi Osaka, but that was a match that could have easily got away from her at 5-4, 30/30 in the first set. Losing that would have made it a very long road back and Coco Gauff is playing at a superior level to the returning Osaka.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Serving well will be key and there are likely to be a few breaks of serve, but Coco Gauff has managed six breaks in her last two matches against Elise Mertens. Hitting that mark again should give Gauff an opportunity to have one of her less stressful wins since the Australian Open.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><u style="font-weight: bold;">MY PICKS</u>: Tommy Paul - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Taylor Fritz - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Casper Ruud - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Aryna Sabalenka - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Coco Gauff - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Coral (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><u style="font-weight: bold;">Indian Wells Update</u>: 20-18, - 0.92 Units (76 Units Staked, - 1.21% Yield)</span></div>Dav Aulakhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05567080212652977095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4672495653037673446.post-58214786039788249142024-03-12T15:53:00.002+00:002024-03-12T15:53:49.499+00:00Indian Wells Masters Tennis Picks 2024 (Tuesday 12th March)There was a lot of tennis to get through on Monday as the Third Round was completed at Indian Wells, but there has not been a bigger upset than Novak Djokovic being dumped out by a Lucky Loser.<div><br /></div><div>While admitting his opponent did play well, Novak Djokovic was plenty critical about his own level of performance and this is something he will want to address in Miami and when the clay court season gets underway in April.</div><div><br />Something similar came out of his camp after the crushing loss to Jannik Sinner at the Australian Open and there is little doubt that the rest of the field are getting closer to the World Number 1.</div><div><br /></div><div>Novak Djokovic will go into the next three Grand Slams as the favourite, but the feeling is that the days of the Serb being an odds on favourite or a very short favourite to win Slams looks to be over.</div><div><br /></div><div>He can make a mockery of that prediction by dominating the clay court season ahead of the French Open, while Novak Djokovic is still amongst the top two players in the world on a grass court, but it is only good news for Men's Tennis that players are not heading onto the court already defeated.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>There looks to be positive news on the Rafael Nadal front with reports suggesting the issue picked up at Indian Wells is not one that should prevent him from lining up in the Monte Carlo draw.</div><div><br /></div><div>You just hope Nadal can get through the tough clay court season and be well prepared, but most importantly healhty, when the French Open comes around as it seemingly looks more and more likely that this could be the final season he plays on the Tour.</div><div><br /></div><div>Things can change if Rafael Nadal has a really strong nine months, but the body is not on the same page as the heart and mind and I can only hope he gets to go out on his own terms.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>A positive run on Monday has turned this tournament back around for the Tennis Picks, but it still feels like a vulnerable position as we move into the Fourth Round at Indian Wells.</div><div><br /></div><div>Tuesday does look a much tougher day to make predictions with some very good looking matches heading to the courts, but there are some selections made, which can be read below.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Stefanos Tsitsipas - 2.5 games </b>v Jiri Lehecka: The improvements being made by Jiri Lehecka means he has to be massively respected ahead of this Fourth Round match at Indian Wells.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">He has won a title on the hard courts and played well in big events in Dubai and now at Indian Wells and there is a feeling that his own belief is growing against some of the elite players on the Tour.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Beating Andrey Rublev will have Lehecka moving into this Fourth Round clash with a lot more confidence and his serving threat has to be respected.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">However, he is facing an opponent in Stefanos Tsitsipas who looks to have bounced back from whatever has been ailing him.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br />That is reflected by his fall out of the top ten in the World Rankings, but Tsitsipas will force his way back into those positions if he can keep things rolling in Indian Wells. He has looked very good through the first two wins and Tsitsipas will have the slight mental edge over this opponent having beaten Jiri Lehecka in both previous matches on the Tour.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Both players have been solid servers in those matches, but Stefanos Tsitsipas has gotten a little more out of his return game.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">The last of those matches was at the Australian Open in 2023 and there is little doubt that Jiri Lehecka has grown as a player since that match. The return against top 20 Ranked opponents have still not been quite up to top level, but Jiri Lehecka has won three of his five matches against those opponents on the hard courts this year, including beating Karen Khachanov in Dubai and Rublev in the Third Round here.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Stefanos Tsitsipas has a perfect 10-0 record when facing opponents outside of the top 20 in the Rankings and Jiri Lehecka is still trying to crack that mark in his career. This should be close and competitive, but the feeling is that the Greek player will have more of the Break Point opportunities and that can see him progress into the Quarter Final and cover this mark set.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Jasmine Paolini - 1.5 games </b>v Anastasia Potapova: Confidence can be a funny thing in a sport like tennis and it can make all of the difference for a player.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Jasmine Paolini is playing with real confidence and it has seemingly come out of the blue.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Not many would have predicted that the Italian player would love opening matches in Linz and Doha and then win seven matches in a row to take home the biggest title of her career in Dubai and then progress into the Fourth Round at Indian Wells.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">The numbers suggest it is not a sustainable run, but Jasmine Paolini will only worry about what she can produce on the courts as she prepares to face Anastasia Potapova for the first time.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">The World Number 33 has been a comfortable winner in her opening two matches at Indian Wells and Anastasia Potapova has won nine of the fourteen matches played in 2024 on the hard courts. However, the challenge has been to beat a player Ranked higher than her and not those she is expected to beat and Potapova has won just one of four matches against those above her in the World Rankings.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Her serve has been ok in those matches, but Potapova has been struggling on the return.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">However, she should have a bit more joy against this Jasmine Paolini serve, although the latter is likely to put Potapova under pressure with her own return.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">The layers are not great believers in Paolini right now, despite her moving into a career high World Ranking mark. As stated, it looks like she is performing and producing results at an unsustainable level, but Jasmine Paolini does have enough quality in her return of serve to win this Fourth Round match.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Caroline Wozniacki </b>v Angelique Kerber: The last time these two veterans met on the Tour was back in June 2018 when Caroline Wozniacki came from a set down to beat Angelique Kerber in the Semi Final at Eastbourne.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Both players are former Grand Slam Champions and both were amongst the elite on the Tour, but Wozniacki and Kerber have spent considerable time away in recent years as they have both become mothers.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Caroline Wozniacki retired and only returned at the back end of last year, while Angelique Kerber made it clear she would return to the Tour having spent the entirety of 2023 enjoying her life.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">There have been similarities in the return to the Tour with both Caroline Wozniacki and Angelique Kerber struggling to find their best form on a consistent basis.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">It has been different in Indian Wells and both players will be keen to progress to the Quarter Final and pick up some massive Ranking points at the same time.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">The German leads the head to head 8-7, but it is Wozniacki who has a 6-5 lead in their hard court matches.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">None of that really matters here, but it does mean there will be little to surprise the other in this big match.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">In their limited time spent on court prior to Indian Wells, Caroline Wozniacki had perhaps shown a bit more competitiveness than Angelique Kerber. The former had at least pushed opponents and perhaps been a little unfortunate to lose matches, while Kerber had not really found anything near her best tennis when losing six of her first seven matches in 2024.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">The two have performed well at this tournament, but the slight edge has to be with Caroline Wozniacki who is perhaps setting up a few cheaper points thanks to the first serve.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">It cannot be ignored that Angelique Kerber has the more impressive wins having seen off two top 20 Ranked opponents and only having dropped a single set in those two wins. The return has been really effective from Kerber and made up for the lack of consistency on the serve and this feels like a match that will have a lot of breaks of serve throughout.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">However, the slight edge is with Caroline Wozniacki on form at this tournament and in 2024 in general and she can get the better of her long-term rival in a big Fourth Round match.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><u style="font-weight: bold;">MY PICKS</u>: Stefanos Tsitsipas - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Jasmine Paolini - 1.5 Games @ 1.75 Coral (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Caroline Wozniacki @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><u style="font-weight: bold;">Indian Wells Update</u>: 19-16, + 1.26 Units (70 Units Staked, + 1.80% Yield)</span></div>Dav Aulakhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05567080212652977095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4672495653037673446.post-12560936851893650442024-03-11T17:20:00.002+00:002024-03-11T17:20:46.360+00:00Indian Wells Masters Tennis Picks 2024 (Monday 11th March)There are a lot of moving parts on the week and that has restricted my time in getting this post out.<div><br /></div><div>With the time change in the United States, we are now seven hours ahead of the tournament in Indian Wells so prepare for an earlier start for those this side of the pond and for another busy day with the Third Round being completed.</div><div><br /></div><div>The last two days have produced a really disappointing return with those fine margins turning on the selections, but there is still time to get this tournament turned back around.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><u style="font-weight: bold;">MY PICKS</u>: Holger Rune - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Tommy Paul @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Taylor Fritz - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Grigor Dimitrov - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Aryna Sabalenka - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Naomi Osaka - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Maria Sakkari - 2.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Elina Svitolina - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><u style="font-weight: bold;">Indian Wells Update</u>: 14-13, - 1.12 Units (54 Units Staked, - 2.07% Yield)</span></div>Dav Aulakhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05567080212652977095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4672495653037673446.post-36994177218522003142024-03-10T13:40:00.004+00:002024-03-10T13:40:55.950+00:00Indian Wells Masters Tennis Picks 2024 (Sunday 10th March)The big names have largely come out firing at the Indian Wells Masters, although we have seen a number of withdrawals before matches have taken place too.<div><br /></div><div>The WTA tournament has lost Marketa Vondrousova and Elena Rybakina from the draw, while Milos Raonic withdrew from the ATP event just a day after winning his match and against a Lucky Loser after Rafael Nadal decided to pull of the tournament as he continues his recovery from injury.</div><div><br /></div><div>For the main part, it is a tournament that moves into a strong looking lineup in the Third Round.</div><div><br /></div><div>To win a Masters 1000 event, players will know they to deal with the challenges that come and it usually means having to win big matches. The draw has put together a strong schedule on Sunday when the Third Round gers underway with eight matches in both the ATP and WTA Tournaments set to be played.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>A disappointing Saturday has just pulled back the numbers from the Indian Wells tournament.</div><div><br /></div><div>The opening three days of Picks had been productive enough, but that was not the case on a 1-3 day on Saturday and so the pressure is on to bounce back and try and make sure this Indian Wells event with a positive number.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Stefanos Tsitsipas - 3.5 games </b>v Frances Tiafoe: At his best, Frances Tiafoe is capable of beating most players on a hard court, but we have not really seen that from the American in 2024.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Asking Stefanos Tsitsipas to cover this kind of line is not always ideal, especially on the faster surfaces with the return game not as effective as some of the top players on the Tour.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">He has lost three of his last four matches against Frances Tiafoe and the last two have both been on the hard courts and after Stefanos Tsitsipas had won the first set.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Overall it has been a strong return to the Tour for Tsitsipas in 2024 and he has been returning with a bit more effectiveness than we have come to expect. Maintaining those levels on this surface will be the challenge for the Greek star, but this may be an opportunity for him to reach the Fourth Round in Indian Wells behind a solid win.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Overlooking Frances Tiafoe would be a mistake, but it has been a tough opening two months for the American and that could show up here.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Andrey Rublev - 3.5 Games </b>v Jiri Lehecka: Strong wins have been a feature of Andrey Rublev's season and even the outburst in Dubai that led to a harsh disqualification will not have dented the confidence.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Beating an in-form Andy Murray will only have added to the belief and Andrey Rublev can get the better of Jiri Lehecka again.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">He beat him here in Indian Wells last year, although Jiri Leheckha has produced stronger hard court performances in 2024 than he managed overall in 2023.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">The serve is still a big weapon for Lehecka, but he has found a little more out of the return game and that has proven to be a difference maker in turning some results in his favour. Jiri Lehecka will know that his return will be tested by a strong, aggressive server like Andrey Rublev, but it will give him belief that he can turn that loss to Rublev around.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Andrey Rublev will know there is room for improvement in his own return game- he has perhaps not played the Break Points as well as he can, but the opportunities are expected to be created and that could lead to a solid win for the higher Ranked player.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><u style="font-weight: bold;">MY PICKS</u>: Stefanos Tsitsipas - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Andrey Rublev - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Anna Kalinskaya - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><u style="font-weight: bold;">Indian Wells Update</u>: 13-10, + 2.88 Units (46 Units Staked, + 6.26% Yield)</span></div>Dav Aulakhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05567080212652977095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4672495653037673446.post-65373047949565052042024-03-09T00:27:00.002+00:002024-03-09T01:26:40.361+00:00Indian Wells Masters Tennis Picks 2024 (Saturday 9th March)The Indian Wells Masters continues on Saturday with the Second Round set to be completed and it is likely to be another busy day on the courts.<div><br /></div><div>With improving weather, it looks a good day for tennis and the selections from the matches scheduled to be played can be read below.</div><div><br /></div><div>The full Indian Wells numbers will be in the Sunday thread when moving into the Third Round at the tournament and that is largely down to the limited time I've had being used to put the research together ahead of this first Saturday at the event.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><u style="font-weight: bold;">MY PICKS</u>: Cameron Norrie - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Tomas Machac - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Sorana Cirstea - 1.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Anhelina Kalinina - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)</span></div>Dav Aulakhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05567080212652977095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4672495653037673446.post-47586586594406993272024-03-08T17:06:00.001+00:002024-03-08T17:06:18.349+00:00Indian Wells Masters Tennis Picks 2024 (Friday 8th March)It was another premature ending to the Indian Wells schedule of play on Thursday and that means a few First Round matches have to be shoehorned into Friday when the Second Round gets underway.<div><br /></div><div>The next two days are busier than expected and that means there is not enough time to put down any thoughts for the selections, but instead it will be short threads with those made.</div><div><br />Seeded players are in action on Friday and it has been a positive start to the tournament, albeit only a start.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><u style="font-weight: bold;">MY PICKS</u>: Alex De Minaur - 5.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet Victor (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Andrey Rublev - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Nicolas Jarry - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Carlos Alcaraz - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Alexander Bublik - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Karen Khachanov - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Jelena Ostapenko - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)</span></div><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><u style="font-weight: bold;">Indian Wells Update</u>: 6-4, + 2.48 Units (20 Units Staked, + 12.40% Yield)</span></div>Dav Aulakhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05567080212652977095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4672495653037673446.post-45126971546227945792024-03-08T12:01:00.001+00:002024-03-08T12:01:15.744+00:00Boxing Picks 2024- Anthony Joshua vs Francis Ngannou (March 8th)Knockout Chaos comes to our television screens on Friday evening with another big card put together by Saudi Arabia, who continue to have a major influence on a number of sports.<div><br /></div><div>In recent week/months, the likes of golf, tennis and snooker have all begun to offer partnerships with Saudi Arabia, or have sports directly taken over, while Formula One will be here this weekend.</div><div><br /></div><div>Boxing events need the cash influx to really put the fights together that the fans want to see and, to that end, it has been a positive financial boost not only for the fighters and promoters, but also for the fans.</div><div><br /></div><div>Of course it is almost impossible to disregard other issues, but that will not stop people tuning in for another big night of Heavyweight Boxing.</div><div><br /></div><div>And if the investments being made continue to be made, the likes of Conor Benn vs Manny Pacquiao and Artur Beterbiev vs Dmitry Bivol may be the next big cards to be headlined in the country.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>At least we are getting some of the big fights together, but the same cannot be said of Canelo Alvarez who has yet to announce his next bout despite the rumoured May 4th date fast approaching.</div><div><br /></div><div>It looked like he was leaving his contract with PBC, who have been rumoured to be struggling financially, was coming to an end, but the latest seems to be that there has been a breakthrough in the talks and Canelo's next fight will be under the PBC banner.</div><div><br /></div><div>The only real disappointment is that David Benavidez is very unlikely to be standing on the other side of the ring- no one will deny Canelo Alvarez has achieved enough in Boxing to make his own decisions as to who to face next, but holding the Super Middleweight Belts hostage while avoiding the clear top contender is not a good look.</div><div><br /></div><div>David Benavidez looks like he will bid to close other serious options to Canelo by moving up to Light Heavyweight and pursuing the Undisputed Titles at that weight instead. He has admitted he can go back down to Super Middleweight too and will be looking to operate between the two Divisions, but for now it looks like the big showdown between the Mexican Monster and the icon Canelo Alvarez will have to wai at least six months and possibly even twelve months.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>March looks to be another solid month of Boxing action, but it is the Easter Weekend which really looks to be the exciting one to tune in for.</div><div><br /></div><div>That is when PBC's first card with Amazon is set to go headlined by Tim Tszyu vs Keith Thurman, while I am really looking forward to the Fabian Wardley vs Frazer Clarke bout on the same weekend in London.</div><div><br /></div><div>Dillian Whyte is also back this week having had his suspension for failing a test overturned and he will be returning as the headline act in Ireland on St Patrick's Day.</div><div><br /></div><div>But before we get to all of the excitement of the rest of the month, a big card in Saudi Arabia will be looking to deliver the Knockout Chaos that fans love to see.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjR3SgeF-M2fmItjM_5TtOpOGtcBv98t1ZOWVviZGZyJ2zH5B2y-kQfN7At9A0rI0jKhn7EvoAzTjug29TqtYJWG41T-Hj63kRaWum6kLysHqv5d4ELvGIz6-BxahXlfxV-xcBxM2rfktqDDFvqOYcTblFzvTjWhjM_hgJiSURVQlSgZGshnx1ds1dHV-oO/s2048/AJ%20Ngannou.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1152" data-original-width="2048" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjR3SgeF-M2fmItjM_5TtOpOGtcBv98t1ZOWVviZGZyJ2zH5B2y-kQfN7At9A0rI0jKhn7EvoAzTjug29TqtYJWG41T-Hj63kRaWum6kLysHqv5d4ELvGIz6-BxahXlfxV-xcBxM2rfktqDDFvqOYcTblFzvTjWhjM_hgJiSURVQlSgZGshnx1ds1dHV-oO/w400-h225/AJ%20Ngannou.jpeg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Anthony Joshua vs Francis Ngannou</span></b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">I did have to go back and remind myself of how I felt when Tyson Fury was set to face Francis Ngannou back in October.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">The feeling was that Tyson Fury would not want to risk his Undisputed Fight with Oleksandr Usyk, which had been signed off for December, but the best laid plans can be scuppered one a single punch in the Heavyweight Division.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Francis Ngannou landed that and put Fury down, but the latter did enough to earn the victory on the cards, even if some felt it was controversial.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">That performance has made Ngannou a much more dangerous looking fighter and he now has an opportunity to face Anthony Joshua.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">A big performance against Otto Wallin has just reminded fans of the 'old' Anthony Joshua and there is little doubt activity has been a big help. The carrot at the end of the stick is that a win here will have the Saudi Arabian investors pushing to set Anthony Joshua up with the winner of the Fury-Oleksandr Usyk Undisputed Fight in May.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">You have to accept that Francis Ngannou looked decent enough in the fight with Tyson Fury, but that was a poor outing from Fury. There is little doubt that he was not nearly as prepared as he would have been if he had seen a performance like that from Francis Ngannou before, while the style may actually have suited the novice coming across from the world of MMA.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">This time Anthony Joshua will have known that Ngannou is dangerous and that will mean he is fully focused on the task at hand.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">And that should be bad news for the underdog, even if he makes a point that a fight outside the boxing ring may play out very differently, especially if it was taking place in the Octagon.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Unfortunately for Francis Ngannou, this fight is not taking place anywhere but a Boxing ring and the fundamentals of Anthony Joshua should make him a bigger favourite than the layers believe.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">He is plenty strong and Anthony Joshua looked to have really gotten on board with what was asked of him by new trainer Ben Davison. The game plan will likely see Joshua working behind his jab and trying to force Francis Ngannou to move and have to exert a lot of energy early on.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">The Cameroonian former UFC Heavyweight Champion did gas some in his fight with Tyson Fury and the feeling is that Anthony Joshua will look to keep things long and use those fundamentals of Boxing to keep Ngannou off-balance and ultimately wear him down.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Going the full Ten Rounds may not be a massive surprise, but the feeling is that Anthony Joshua may be able to let go of enough big shots to force a Stoppage in the second half of the fight. Once the gas tank empties, Francis Ngannou might overcommit to trying to land the one big, fight changing punch, but that could play into Anthony Joshua's hands as he looks to make sure everyone can see that he has gotten the better of how Tyson Fury did for a second bout in a row.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Styles make fights and the feeling is that this one might suit Anthony Joshua more than Tyson Fury and the former Unified Champion can put a statement performance on the board.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">The Day of Reckoning card in December seemed to be loaded from top to bottom and it was never going to be easy to replicate that.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">However, the card for this event is still decent enough for those tuning in for an early evening of Boxing.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Sad news was revealed by Kevin Lerena on Thursday when announcing the passing of his mother, but he has declared that he will still enter the ring against Justis Huni.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Plenty of fighters have found motivation out of such sad circumstances and Huni is not nearly as good as his strong favouritism for the bout suggests. The Australian might still do enough, but Keven Lerana is a big price and one that may intrigue some out there.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">We have seen him put down Daniel Dubois, whose reputation is pretty decent after giving Oleksandr Usyk some problems and then outworking Jarrell Miller, so Kevin Lerena might be a very big price to earn a victory.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">One of the more surprising fights on the undercard features <b>Mark Chamberlain</b> taking on Gavin Gwynne and there is a school of thought that may believe the latter is struggling to get down to the weight.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">He is facing a big puncher and Gavin Gwynne was hurt in his last win against a veteran Italian with only a surprising injury turning the tide in that bout.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">This may be a good time for Mark Chamberlain to take the step up and he can become the second man to stop Gavin Gwynne as he continues his development towards a World Title.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">A fight that looked to be taken off the card after some uncertainty has been restored to the card and <b>Israil Madrimov </b>and <b>Magomed Kurbanov</b> are going to be facing off for a vacant World Title.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">That has only increased the status of what looked like being a very good fight before the WBA Light Middleweight Title was attached and it is no surprise that Madrimov is the favourite.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Both may have unbeaten records, but Liam Smith will feel he was robbed when losing on the cards to Kurbanov in Russia in 2021.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Like his opponent, Magomed Kurbanov had some trouble in beating Michel Soro in his last fight, while he is also travelling for the first time.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">I do think Israil Madrimov will win the fight, but the doubt over the issue that almost saw him withdrawn from the card makes it that much more difficult to make a selection with any kind of confidence.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">However, there is a bit more belief in <b>Nick Ball</b> and it really feels like the British fighter is getting his shot at the WBC World Featherweight Title.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Wrecking Ball has really impressed as he has continued his unbeaten progress as a professional and he gets the opportunity to become a World Champion in just his tenth fight. There is every chance Nick Ball will be back in Saudi Arabia for the five vs five card putting rivals Matchroom and Queensberry into direct competition with one another, but much will depnd on Ball winning this fight.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Rey Vargas is the much taller fighter and he has moved up the weights to become a World Champion in different Divisions, but last time out he took a step too far when losing his unbeaten record to O'Shaquie Foster.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">His last defence of this World Title saw Rey Vargas put down and having to win by Split Decision and it felt like his move to Super Featherweight had been down to struggles in making weight.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">The Champion has the length and the qualities to try and keep Nick Ball at bay, but the feeling is that the fresher fighter will be willing to do what it takes to get close. Once there, Ball can certainly hurt Rey Vargas to the body, especially if weight is a factor and this could be a huge night for the Liverpudlian.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Nick Ball is unlikely to allow Rey Vargas to coast at any time and if there are any doubts about this weight Division or whether the hunger is still there to compete, the Challenger can certainly exploit that and win the World Title without needing the judges on the night.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Some have suggested the real main event on this card is the big Heavyweight fight between <b>Joseph Parker </b>and <b>Zhilei Zhang</b>, who is putting his Interim WBO World Title on the line.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Both of these fighters had very strong 2023 calendar years- Parker upset Deontay Wilder, while Zhang upset Joe Joyce twice and in big Knock Out wins.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">The second of those was very impressive, but this is going to be a different challenge for Big Bang against an opponent who should be much more elusive than Joyce has tended to be.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Beating Wilder is a huge performance, but the whole idea of Joseph Parker being on some massive resurgence since losing to Joe Joyce is perhaps overplayed. Credit has to be given to him for beating the former WBC Champion in December, but you have to wonder how much of that was down to an inactive Deontay Wilder and one who seemed to struggle to want to let his hands go.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Prior to that win, Joseph Parker had beaten Jack Massey in an underwhelming performance before Stopping Faiga Opelu in a Round and Simon Kean in the Third Round.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Those are wins that are hardly the most impressive.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">On the other hand Zhilei Zhang's reputation has been greatly enhanced by those wins over Joe Joyce, but some will feel he should have been given the nod when he lost a tight fight to Filip Hrgovic. Conditioning is a big test for Zhang at 40 years old, but he hits hard and fast and that makes him dangerous.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">The expectation is that Joseph Parker will not be nearly as hittable as Joe Joyce and he will feel he can outwork Zhilei Zhang once getting through some of the awkward early Rounds.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">However, he cannot expect Zhang to be as patient or inactive as Deontay Wilder and that is what makes this an intriguing contest.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Both know that they are perhaps a win or two away from another World Title shot and so they cannot afford to overlook one another. Activity has helped Joseph Parker, but he still has something to prove, while Zhilei Zhang looked really good on the scales.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Styles make fights and rarely does Boxing work where Fighter A beats Fighter B and Fighter B beats Fighter C so Fighter A should beat Fighter C. The style of Joseph Parker should definitely give Zhilei Zhang more to think about than when he faced Joe Joyce, but there is also more likelihood that Zhang will give Parker more to think about than a surprisingly passive Deontay Wilder did.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">This makes this a hugely intriguing fight to watch as the chief support.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">It really does feel like either Zhang gets this one done through the first half of the contest or Joseph Parker is going to be able to really take control as the gas tank runs down for the Interim Champion.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">The lean has to be with Zhilei Zhang to earn another Stoppage win and that is largely down to the fact that there have been signs that Joseph Parker is not as granite as he once was. Recent wins have covered up some of the shortcomings, but Zhang is not likely to be put his hands in his pockets as Deontay Wilder did in December and he will test how much Parker has left.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Ultimately it may be enough to secure the win inside the distance with the speed of the hands and the power in both that could just break down Joseph Parker in what should be another quality Heavyweight contest.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><u style="font-weight: bold;">MY PICKS</u>: Anthony Joshua to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Mark Chamberlain to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 2.87 Sky Bet (1 Unit)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Nick Ball to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 3.75 Bet Victor (1 Unit)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Zhilei Zhang to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 2.00 William Hill (1 Unit)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><u style="font-weight: bold;">Boxing 2024</u>: 11-14, + 10.05 Units (40 Units Staked, + 25.13% Yield)</span></div>Dav Aulakhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05567080212652977095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4672495653037673446.post-65767592927573061542024-03-07T17:08:00.001+00:002024-03-07T18:04:20.149+00:00Indian Wells Masters Tennis Picks 2024 (Thursday 6th March)Tennis Paradise.<div><br /></div><div>The marketing promotes this side of Indian Wells and the fans and players do love playing in this part of California, but the opening day of the main draw of this Masters 1000 event was cold, windy and ultimately too rainy to complete.</div><div><br /></div><div>It does mean a loaded Thursday at the tournament as the remainder of the First Round is all scheduled to be completed in both the ATP and WTA events taking place and all in preparation for the Seeded players to join the party on Friday.</div><div><br /></div><div>The weather forecast for the rest of the tournament is looking much more like what we have come to expect from Indian Wells and it will be interesting to hear how players like the new conditions- the tournament had been operating one of the slower hard courts on the Tour, but early indications is that the courts are much quicker in 2024 and the desert air will contribute to the balls flying through the court.</div><div><br /></div><div>It is something we will have to keep in mind compared with previous Indian Wells tournaments.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>The conditions were one negative of the opening day of the main draw, but the bigger story is clearly the withdrawal of Rafael Nadal who continues to feel he is unable to operate at the level needed to be back on the Tour.</div><div><br /></div><div>An exhibition was played against Carlos Alcaraz, but poor movement in practice had suggested Nadal was dealing with a problem and it looks like any return to the Tour will now have to wait until the clay court season, which begins next month.</div><div><br /></div><div>This is yet another hint towards retirement and it would not be a surprise if the Spaniard calls time on his career after the Olympic Games, also played at his favourite Grand Slam surroundings in Roland Garros. The only hope for fans is that we are going to get to see Rafael Nadal enjoying his tennis and being able to head off on his own terms, but there has to be a concern as to how he will be able to hold up through the tough clay court season in the build to the French Open.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>Only half of the Tennis Picks were completed on Thursday as the rain hit the event and postponed a number of matches until Thursday.</div><div><br /></div><div>A number of other selections from the First Round matches that were originally scheduled for Thursday can be read below as the tournament prepares to welcome some of the top names on the Tour to the action in the Second Round.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Miomir Kecmanovic - 1.5 games </b>v Lorenzo Sonego: Conditions may favour the latter at Indian Wells if the courts are playing very quickly, but Lorenzo Sonego has been struggling for any kind of consistent form in 2024.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">He has had his moments, and the serve makes him dangerous, but Sonego has not been returning very well and that may give Miomir Kecmanovic the edge in this First Round match.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">The Serb has not exactly been piling up the wins, but the run to the Quarter Final in Acapulco will have him feeling better about his overall tennis.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Lorenzo Sonego may bemoan some of the early draws given to him in 2024, but his ending to 2023 on the hard courts was also pretty ineffective and Kecmanovic can move in front in their head to head on the Tour.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Tomas Machac - 2.5 games </b>v Stan Wawrinka: The money has come in on the younger player who has produced some very good hard court performances this season and Tomas Machac has to be happy in hearing about the faster court conditions.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Take nothing away from the achievements Stan Wawrinka has had in his career, but he has only played one hard court match this season and has now dropped as low as World Number 70 having peaked at World Number 3.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">The lack of hard court tennis has to be a concern, while the move from the clay courts to the faster Indian Wells court may be more difficult than it has been previously.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Stan Wawrinka still has quality and can produce eye-catching tennis, but doing so over a couple of hours may be difficult against this opponent.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Tomas Machac has had solid hard court wins over the likes of Frances Tiafoe and Andy Murray this season, and he will feel he should have gotten the better of Karen Khachanov in Melbourne and Alexander Bublik in Dubai.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">He did get the better of Stan Wawrinka on an indoor hard court at the back end of the 2023 season and Machac can do the same at Indian Wells.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Arthur Fils - 1.5 games </b>v Nuno Borges: He may have disappointed me on the clay courts, but Arthur Fils can be backed to win this First Round match.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Take nothing away from Nuno Borges who has backed up the run at the Australian Open with some big performances, but the numbers are average and it feels like he has just played the big points at an unsustainable level.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">He will be out for revenge having won just two games in a big loss to Arthur Fils earlier this season, but things have gone much better for the Portuguese player since then.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">There is a lot of expectation on the shoulders of Fils, and he has yet to show the consistency that people would have hoped, but this is a solid hard court player. As long as he serves well, Arthur Fils can get the better of Nuno Borges for a second time in 2024 and pick up some big Ranking points before the clay court season gets underway.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Patrick Kypson - 1.5 games </b>v Ethan Quinn: Any player that wins two Qualifiers to earn a spot in the main draw of any tournament has to be given a lot of respect. It means they are familiar with the conditions and there will be some confidence having won two matches in a row, while Ethan Quinn will also note that his two wins were against players Ranked higher than Patrick Kypson.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">There may also be a little bit of motivation from the fact Patrick Kypson earned a Wild Card spot into the main draw, while these two players met in a tight, competitive Challenger tournament Final in Cleveland.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Ultimately Kypson got the better of Ethan Quinn on the day with the slightly stronger serving making a difference and the feeling is that this will be the case when they face off in the First Round.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Patrick Kypson followed that tournament win in Cleveland by reaching the Quarter Final in Delray Beach and operating at a higher level than Ethan Quinn may give the higher Ranked American the edge to move through to bigger contests in the Second Round.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Alejandro Tabilo - 1.5 games </b>v Pavel Kotov: Reaching the Final in his home tournament in Santiago will have been a positive on one hand, but Alejandro Tabilo has to be disappointed he was not able to win the title.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">That match was played a few days ago and travelling to Indian Wells to move onto a new surface is going to be a big ask.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Most would also expect Alejandro Tabilo to have his best results on the clay courts, but he is up at a new career high World Ranking mark of 39 and he came through two Qualifying Rounds on his way to winning a hard court title in Auckland in January.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Pavel Kotov is struggling for consistency and he may need Tabilo to be a little fatigued to have a chance to beat the lefty.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">With this match on a Thursday, Alejandro Tabilo cannot have many excuses about being too tired to compete and the feeling is that he will get the better of this opponent and continue to improve the World Ranking.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Emma Raducanu - 2.5 games </b>v Rebeka Masarova: A couple of solid Qualifier wins will have given Rebeka Masarova confidence and it is not ideal backing a player speaking about being unworried about results.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">That is what was coming from the Emma Raducanu camp ahead of this WTA 1000 event with the British player speaking about development rather than getting matches under the belt.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Ultimately those things do go hand in hand and Emma Raducanu should be winning a match like this one against a solid, but unspectacular hard court opponent.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">It has been a mixed start to 2024, but only the loss at the Australian Open has to be considered a really poor one for the former US Open Champion. In general Emma Raducanu has gotten the better of those she should be beating and Rebeka Masarova is one of those players.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">The wins in the Qualifiers will give Masarova confidence, but the Spaniard had lost five of six matches prior to arriving at Indian Wells and Emma Raducanu can find her way through to the Second Round.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 games </b>v Anna Blinkova: The upset over Elena Rybakina a the Australian Open may end up being the absolute highlight of Anna Blinkova's 2024 season, but she will be looking for more.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Wins over Caroline Wozniacki and Dayana Yastremska in San Diego shows that confidence is not a problem, but Anna Blinkova is going to need to be at her best to beat Karolina Pliskova.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">If the conditions are as expected, Pliskova's serve could be a major weapon on Thursday and potentially deep into the tournament.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">An injury hit twelve months has just pushed Karolina Pliskova out of the limelight generated by Rybakina, Aryna Sabalenka, Coco Gauff and Iga Swiatek, but the Czech player has just reminded everyone of the danger she poses. After winning a title in Cluj, Karolina Pliskova reached the Semi Final in Doha and Fourth Round in Dubai, two big hard court events, and the only defeat suffered was in three sets to Gauff.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">She will certainly feel she should have won that match and Karolina Pliskova had strong runs in Indian Wells in the past having twice reached the Semi Final and twice reached the Quarter Final.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Serving well will put Anna Blinkova under pressure and Karolina Pliskova can earn solid passage into the next Round.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><u style="font-weight: bold;">MY PICKS</u>: Miomir Kecmanovic - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Tomas Machac - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Arthur Fils - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Patrick Kypson - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Alejandro Tabilo - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Emma Raducanu - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><u style="font-weight: bold;">Indian Wells Update</u>: 1-1, + 0 Units (4 Units Staked, + 0 % Yield)</span></div>Dav Aulakhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05567080212652977095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4672495653037673446.post-44241956898098488762024-03-06T16:28:00.001+00:002024-03-07T18:04:37.374+00:00Indian Wells Masters Tennis Picks 2024 (Wednesday 5th March)The WTA Tour have had a couple of 1000 events played, but this is the first of those on the ATP Tour when both come together at Indian Wells.<div><br /></div><div>Both Tours will move together onto Miami at the end of this event with March dominated by the two big Masters tournaments ahead of the start of the clay court season.</div><div><br /></div><div>The top Seeds will not get underway until the Second Round later in the week, but the opening days are very busy with a host of First Round matches to be completed.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>It has been a poor start to the season for the Tennis Picks but much of that is still down to the really poor Australian Open production.</div><div><br /></div><div>Last week was looking better, but when both Ben Shelton and Stefanos Tsitsipas failed to serve out matches, and ultimately covers, and Andrey Rublev was denied a complete win over Sebastian Korda due to a retirement, it did prevent a second winning week to be recorded.</div><div><br /></div><div>Things could always be a lot worse, but they should have been a lot better from that week and should have backed up the previous week which had ended with a profitable week.</div><div><br /></div><div>Let's hope the Indian Wells Masters event proves to be one with a little more fortune attached to the selections that will be made over the next ten days.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Andy Murray - 2.5 games </b>v David Goffin: There was a time that a match between these two players would have been played in the Quarter Final of big Masters events, but both Andy Murray and David Goffin are still plugging away on the Tour.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">One has spoken about potentially retiring at the end of the summer, while the other has had to battle through a couple of Qualifiers to even earn a spot in the main draw at the Indian Wells Masters.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">This does cloud some of the potential outcome of the match- Andy Murray has been struggling to find wins, even if performances have not been as poor as the results, while David Goffin has begun to spend a lot of time playing matches against players outside of the top 100.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">To underline the point, over the last twelve months through injury and a loss of form, David Goffin has played just eight matches against top 100 Ranked opponents on the hard courts. The Belgian former World Number 7 has lost seven of those eight matches, although three of those losses in 2024 have been against players Ranked high enough to be Seeded in Grand Slam events.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">After winning two Qualifiers, David Goffin has to be feeling pretty happy with the conditions and he will certainly feel he can finally win a set, never mind the match, against Andy Murray.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">The head to head is perhaps not surprising- Andy Murray's style looks to be everything David Goffin can do, but only a little bit better as his former Grand Slam winning and World Number 1 form would underline.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">There is little doubt that Andy Murray is not the player he once was and everything is much harder for him these days than when at his peak. The serve has never been the biggest weapon, but Murray has not returned as well as he would have expected from himself, although this is a match in which he can get his teeth into those games a little more.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">David Goffin has only held 67% of his service games played in four matches against top 100 Ranked opponents in 2024, and that number is only at 71% against those opponents on the hard courts over the last twelve months. This gives Andy Murray a chance and there could be a number of breaks of serve during this contest, although the feeling is that this is a match that the British player can still win.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Jordan Thompson - 2.5 games </b>v Juncheng Shang: This is more to do with the form that Jordan Thompson has displayed over the last month and that gives him the edge over Juncheng Shang, despite the fact the latter has come through a couple of Qualifiers in Indian Wells to become accustomed to the conditions.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Last year Jordan Thompson did reach the Third Round at Indian Wells and he has been playing with a lot of confidence through the first two months of the season.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Winning a title in Los Cabos, which includes victories over the likes of Stefanos Tsitsipas and Casper Ruud, has to give the Australian plenty of belief, and he was a deserved winner when last going up against Juncheng Shang to level their personal head to head.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">You have to credit the lefty for reaching the Hong Kong Semi Final and taking a set from Andrey Rublev, but he will have to serve well to contain Jordan Thompson.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">The latter is not easy to trust to maintain the current levels having reached his career high World Ranking at the end of February, but Jordan Thompson is playing well enough to move through to the Second Round behind a solid victory.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Petra Martic - 3.5 games </b>v Angelique Kerber: It is never going to be easy to return from a long absence from the Tour and especially for those who are returning as mothers.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br />That has already proven to be the case for Angelique Kerber and it may take a bit of time to really find her timing and ability to string together wins.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">It looks like a tough First Round match against veteran Petra Martic, who has been in decent if unspectacular form to open 2024. However, she has been competing and putting some wins together and that is more than what can be said for Angelique Kerber who is now Ranked outside the top 600.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Things are perhaps tougher for someone like Kerber and Caroline Wozniacki than they perhaps will be for Naomi Osaka because of the style of tennis- both the former players are largely seen as counter punchers, but finding that timing and the stamina to fight through the long rallies time after time will take a bit of getting used to again.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">There have been a couple of competitive matches for Kerber on her return this year, but a lot of matches have got away from her too.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Petra Martic has lost matches to Alja Tomljanovic and Naomi Osaka, two returning players, already in 2024 and that makes it tougher to trust her. However, Angelique Kerber has been having some issues with her serve, which has added to the pressure on the return and ultimately that may show up in this First Round match.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Hailey Baptiste - 1.5 games </b>v Robin Montgomery: Both of these players have com through the Qualifiers, but it is Hailey Baptiste who can progress through to the Second Round.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">She has gotten the better of Robin Montgomery in both previous matches, including in a three setter this year, and looks to be playing well against those players she should beat.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Robin Montgomery will be competitive, but has to get more out of the return against the first serve to turn things around, especially as Hailey Baptiste has been able to attack both the first and second serve returns.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Two Qualifiers should be confident within the conditions at Indian Wells, but it is Hailey Baptiste getting closer to cracking the top 100 and she can move a step towards that with a victory in what may end up being a competitive three set match.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><u style="font-weight: bold;">MY PICKS</u>: Andy Murray - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Jordan Thompson - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Petra Martic - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Hailey Baptiste - 1.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)</span></div>Dav Aulakhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05567080212652977095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4672495653037673446.post-25752554620678619072024-02-29T01:45:00.005+00:002024-02-29T14:04:40.423+00:00Tennis Picks 2024 (Thursday 29th February)A busy day in Dubai saw Andy Murray exit relatively early at another tournament and once again questions were asked about his future and how long he will continue to play competitive tennis on the Tour.<div><br /></div><div>Whether it was frustration or whether it was genuine, Murray has once again hinted that retirement will happen sooner rather than later with an indication he wants to play the French Open, Wimbledon and then the Olympic Games in Paris before calling time on what has been a wonderful career.</div><div><br /></div><div>While it is fair enough to wonder why Andy Murray keeps competing, I do think it is unfair that he is asked this after every loss on the Tour.</div><div><br /></div><div>He has given enough to the sport to deserve the chance to go out how he wants and when he wants, although it is clear that Andy Murray is not prepared to be uncompetitive on the Tour. There was a genuine belief he could get back amongst the top players on the Tour when he pushed himself through a tough recovery period and returned to action with a metal hip.</div><div><br /></div><div>It looks increasingly unlikely that Andy Murray will get to that level again and it becomes hard work to suffer defeats to players that he will expect to beat. The defeat to Ugo Humbert is not so bad on paper, but others this year have been much more difficult to accept and it is perhaps no surprise that Andy Murray all but stated that his career will be ending over the next several months.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>Once again this thread will begin with any selections from the ATP Dubai event before adding those from the other four events.</div><div><br /></div><div>The ATP Acapulco event is on the same path as the Dubai event with both looking to conclude on Saturday, which gives players a few days to get over to Indian Wells and prepare for the first ATP Masters event of the season.</div><div><br /></div><div>The other three events are looking like they are on track for a Sunday Final and that is perhaps no surprise considering the two WTA events are being played in the United States.</div><div><br /></div><div>It has been a solid start to the week, but the four selections on Wednesday in Acapulco will determine where the week stands in terms of the numbers.</div><div><br /></div><div>Those numbers will be added to the thread on Thursday once all of the matches have been completed.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Alexander Bublik </b>v Jiri Lehecka: Both of these players have played well on the hard courts this year and are enjoying good runs in Dubai, but there has been a little more convincing tennis produced by Alexander Bublik.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">His two wins have been a little more comfortable than Jiri Lehecka's two wins and the Kazakhstan Number 1 has spent less time on the court.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">A huge effort would have been put in by Jiri Lehecka to win on Wednesday when he was down Match Points in the second set and behind by a break of serve in the decider. Fighting back would have meant a real investment both physically and emotionally and it could leave Lehecka a little short in this one.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Trusting Alexander Bublik twice in a row might not be for everyone and he is a player that can be erratic- the serve has been decent this week, but there is room for improvement and Bublik will also have to be a little more efficient when the break points are earned.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">However, he has looked slightly better than Jiri Lehecka in the first two matches in Dubai and it feels like Alexander Bublik should have been the favourite in this Quarter Final.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Jiri Lehecka has shown some solid form in 2024, but it may be tough if he is forced to dig into a third set again and Alexander Bublik can come through.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Andrey Rublev - 2.5 games </b>v Sebastian Korda: Losing just three games in four sets will have given Sebastian Korda a real confidence to take into this Quarter Final in Dubai.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">However, both of those wins have been against players Ranked at 63 or higher and now Sebastian Korda has to take a considerable step up in terms of quality of opponent.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Sebastian Korda suffered relatively early defeats in Marseille and Rotterdam so this run in Dubai has really come out of left field, but there is some pressure to produce his best against the stronger players on the Tour. As mentioned, both wins have been against players outside the top 60 in the World Rankings and it should be noted that Korda has lost four matches in a row on the hard courts against those Ranked inside the top 50.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">One of those defeats came against Andrey Rublev at the Australian Open, which makes it three straight losses to the current World Number 5.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Much like his opponent, Andrey Rublev has been playing very well here in Dubai and that has maintained a strong start to 2024. He generally beats those he is expected to beat and Rublev has won all three previous matches against Sebastian Korda without dropping a set.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Andrey Rublev has yet to drop his serve in Dubai and he has held in 94% of his service games against Sebastian Korda. The match in Melbourne saw them play a tight second set against one another, but Rublev was the stronger player and the expectation is that he can keep up his dominant run against the American.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">After the two wins produced this week, Sebastian Korda will feel he can get a lot closer to Andrey Rublev, but this is a step up in class of opponent and the World Number 5 can find his best tennis at the big moments to move through to the Semi Final.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Daniil Medvedev - 4.5 games </b>v Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: The Australian Open run took plenty out of Daniil Medvedev and he has spent a little more time recovering from his exploits in Melbourne than he has in previous years.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">The World Number 4 has made it clear that his loss in the Final from two sets ahead will have hurt, but perhaps not has much as the defeat to Rafael Nadal in the exact same situation a couple of years ago.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">His return to Dubai has at least seen Daniil Medvedev put a couple of wins on the board, although there is plenty of room for improvement too. That is not to say that Daniil Medvedev has played poorly, but he has set some high standards for himself as he prepares to reach the Semi Final.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Facing Alejandro Davidovich Fokina will be a challenge, but it is one that Medvedev will feel he can enjoy.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">All three professional matches between the players have been won by Daniil Medvedev and both hard court wins have been in relatively comfortable fashion when all is said and done. The Russian has had a serious edge on the return of serve when facing Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and these faster conditions should suit him a little more.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">As well as Alejandro Davidovich Fokina can play on the hard courts, over the last twelve months he has a relatively weak 8-12 record against top 50 Ranked players on this surface. His serve has been attackable and the Spaniard has not been able to get into the return games nearly as effectively as he would like, which is going to give Daniil Medvedev an edge in this one.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">This is a big enough spread to deserve respect for the line, but Medvedev can find a way to earn the breaks of serve to earn what will feel like a good, strong win after some considerable investment of energy from the higher Ranked player.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><u style="font-weight: bold;">MY PICKS</u>: Alexander Bublik @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Andrey Rublev - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Daniil Medvedev - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Stefanos Tsitsipas @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Holger Rune - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><u style="font-weight: bold;">Week Update</u>: 6-7, - 3.50 Units (26 Units Staked, - 13.46% Yield)</span></div>Dav Aulakhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05567080212652977095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4672495653037673446.post-14477727586905821282024-02-28T00:33:00.002+00:002024-02-28T15:29:02.479+00:00Tennis Picks 2024 (Wednesday 28th February)The first day of the week produced a solid return, but we will know more about how the tournaments are progressing for the Tennis Picks when the First Round is completed in Acapulco.<div><br /></div><div>On Wednesday the entire Second Round in Dubai will be played as the organisers push for a Saturday finish and the players will probably appreciate that as they will have plenty of time to get over to Indian Wells and become accustomed to the conditions there.</div><div><br /></div><div>All of the other four events being played may decide to split the Second Round matches as has become the norm for most events around the year, and any selections from those tournaments will be added to this thread.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Alexander Bublik </b>v Tallon Griekspoor: Two players who have reached World Number 21 as career high Ranking marks over the last few months are hoping to push into the top 20 for the first time behind a strong run in Dubai.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">There are some considerable Ranking points to be earned here, but that will also put some pressure on both Alexander Bublik and Tallon Griekspoor when they meet in the Second Round.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Layers are struggling to separate the players, and Alexander Bublik can be a little erratic which makes it tough to back him with a lot of confidence.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">However, Bublik has won a title in Montpellier at the beginning of the month and his form has been decent enough as he bids to earn a Quarter Final spot.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">He will need to serve well against someone like Tallon Griekspoor, especially in what have been fast conditions in Dubai so far this week. There is little doubt that the serve is one of the bigger weapons Griekspoor has at his disposal, but he has only broken in 10% of return games played on the hard courts in 2024 and Alexander Bublik has to avoid being too generous and handing over a break of serve.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">These two have not met on the Tour for a couple of years and both were similarly Ranked when they last played one another in Astana in 2022.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">It was Alexander Bublik who won on that day and he has won all three professional matches against Tallon Griekspoor. All of those matches have been on the hard courts and Bublik has had a considerable edge on the return of serve and the feeling is that will show up in this Second Round match too.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Big serves are likely going to see players run through some service games, but Alexander Bublik may be confident enough to edge past a dangerous opponent into the last eight in Dubai.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Karen Khachanov - 2.5 games </b>v Jiri Lehecka: 2023 might not have ended as he would have hoped, but Karen Khachanov has enjoyed the last month on the Tour after a decent enough showing at the Australian Open.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">A Semi Final run in Marseille has been followed by picking up the title in Doha and Karen Khachanov was a solid winner in the First Round having made the short hope across to Dubai for this ATP 500 event.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">The three match losing run Jiri Lehecka had absorbed was ended in his solid First Round win over Marton Fucsovics, but this feels like another step up in class.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">There is plenty to like about the way the Czech youngster approaches his tennis and a big game could be tough to deal with on these fasters courts. There is some room for improvement on the return of serve, but Jiri Lehecka will be hoping he can build scoreboard pressure to crack Karen Khachanov.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Big serving has certainly helped the World Number 15 produce the solid results he has done over the last month, and Karen Khachanov will be boosted by holding two wins over Jiri Lehecka last year on this surface.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Karen Khachanov only faced a single Break Point in two matches against Lehecka, while he has found a way to neutralise the serve and get into the rallies. That may be a bit more difficult on these courts, but Karen Khachanov can still hold enough of an edge to win this match and cover the handicap mark set.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">The remaining Tennis Picks will all come from the ATP Acapulco event where the organisers are also looking to schedule a Saturday Final.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">He is not entirely easy to trust, but <b>Frances Tiafoe</b> may be able to do just enough to get the better of Dominik Koepfer, a player who has struggled when it comes to facing top 50 opponents on the hard courts over the last twelve months.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Both <b>Ben Shelton </b>and <b>Stefanos Tsitsipas </b>are tipped to get the better of Italian opponents who have not had the best time on the hard courts. Both Matteo Arnaldi and Flavio Cobolli have played well to get to the Second Round in Acapulco, the latter as a Qualifier, but this is a considerable step up for both and a proving ground for them.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Backing up big First Round wins might just be beyond them against solid hard court players.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">And the expectation is that <b>Casper Ruud</b> can keep his fine hard court performances going against an opponent who spent some time playing on the South American Golden Swing before heading to Acapulco.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><u style="font-weight: bold;">MY PICKS</u>: Alexander Bublik @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Karen Khachanov - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Frances Tiafoe - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Ben Shelton - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Casper Ruud - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Coral (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><u style="font-weight: bold;">Week Update</u>: 5-2, + 4.80 Units (14 Units Staked, + 34.29% Yield)</span></div>Dav Aulakhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05567080212652977095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4672495653037673446.post-85080740944383672702024-02-27T00:59:00.001+00:002024-02-27T15:38:21.716+00:00Tennis Picks 2024 (Tuesday 27th February)We won't know how the day has gone until the matches in Acapulco and Santiago have been completed, but it was a decent enough start in Dubai thanks to Andrey Rublev's fight from a set down to eventually comfortably progress into the Second Round.<div><br /></div><div>The remainder of the First Round is going to be completed at the ATP 500 event in Dubai, while there will be full days at the other four tournaments being played this week.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 2.5 games </b>v Fabian Marozsan: He might be the World Number 24, but cracking the top 20 has proven to be a little too difficult for Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">He will give it another go this week with some big Ranking points available in Dubai, but it will depend on Alejandro Davidovich Fokina finding some consistency in his tennis. On occasions he can be very good, but he does let himself down at times without having a dominant aspect of his game meaning every match can become something of a chore to win.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Decent numbers have been produced on all surfaces, but they are only slightly above average and it does make it hard to win matches without having to put in a considerable effort each time.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Three losses in a row will have dented some of the confidence and the Spaniard has not really returned as well as he would have liked in those defeats.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">It should be a more comfortable time on the return against someone like Fabian Marozsan who has held 74% of his service games played on the hard courts in 2024. The Hungarian enjoyed a decent run at the Australian Open, but his hold percentage drops to 72 when only considering matches against top 100 Ranked opponents this season.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">This has put considerable pressure on the Fabian Marozsan return of serve and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina should be able to serve well enough to contain the threat from the other side of the court.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Nothing ever comes easy for the higher Ranked player, but he can do enough to cover this spread set in the First Round in Dubai, even when accounting for the faster conditions that have been evident at the tournament.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><u style="font-weight: bold;">MY PICKS</u>: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Stefanos Tsitsipas - 2.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Jordan Thompson - 1.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Holger Rune - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><u style="font-weight: bold;">Week Update</u>: 2-1, + 2 Units (6 Units Staked, + 33.33% Yield)</span></div>Dav Aulakhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05567080212652977095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4672495653037673446.post-85888566198487430362024-02-25T23:45:00.002+00:002024-02-26T15:49:57.493+00:00Tennis Picks 2024 (Monday 26th February)The first week with a winning record was finally produced and that hopefully begins to give the Tennis Picks some momentum to take into the events that are beginning this week.<div><br /></div><div>We have three ATP events, two of those at the 500 level, while the WTA Tour moves to San Diego for a 500 event and Austin for a 250 with the Indian Wells Masters and Miami Masters dominating March.</div><div><br /></div><div>Some big names are still heading out into the tournaments, but plenty of others will already be thinking ahead to those back to back Masters events that conclude the first part of the hard court season.</div><div><br /></div><div>After that the clay court season will begin as the run to the French Open gets underway in early April.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>Much like last week, the ATP 500 tournament in Dubai will have markets up at a reasonable time, but selections from the other events may have to be placed in the thread after the initial Picks have been written down.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Andrey Rublev - 4.5 games </b>v Zhizhen Zhang: He continues to play at a high level, but Andrey Rublev will have been a little disappointed with a relatively early exit in Doha last week.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">He will be playing in Dubai as the Number 2 Seed and Andrey Rublev will need to be playing at a solid level right from the start of the tournament.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">First up is Zhizhen Zhang who has reached a career high World Ranking earlier this month, but who has had a couple of subpar tournaments. A very early loss in Rotterdam was followed by a 1-1 performance in Doha, while Zhang is not returning as well as he would like, especially ahead of a match against someone like Andrey Rublev who does have an effective serve.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">There is room for improvement as far as the Rublev return game goes, but he may be able to get into a few more rallies against this Zhizhen Zhang serve.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">It does feel like a wide spread when you consider Andrey Rublev has just had a few issues converting breaks of serve- he is at 17% in that department this season, but Zhang was put under constant pressure by Karen Khachanov when he played him in Marseille.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">The conditions in Dubai felt like they were playing pretty fast last week and so breaks of serve may not be easy to come, but Andrey Rublev is likely to have the better of this match. If he can just take the chances a little more efficiently, Rublev can show his superiority in the match and he can cover.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">The first couple of days of this week are going to be busy so any selections from Acapulco, Santiago, San Diego or Austin will only be added below with fuller thoughts on any Picks from Dubai.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Later in the week it should be a bit more time manageable to add a few thoughts to all of the Picks being made.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><u style="font-weight: bold;">MY PICKS</u>: Andrey Rublev - 4.5 Games @ 1.95 Coral (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Facundo Diaz Acosta - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Alex De Minaur - 5.5 Games @ 2.05 Coral (2 Units)</span></div>Dav Aulakhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05567080212652977095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4672495653037673446.post-68059809631828002622024-02-24T01:19:00.001+00:002024-02-24T01:19:16.209+00:00Tennis Picks 2024 (Saturday 24th February)<div>We are down to the last couple of days of the latest week on the ATP/WTA Tour, although three of the four events that have been focused on are actually coming to a close on Saturday rather than Sunday.</div><div><br /></div><div>The Finals in Dubai, Doha and Los Cabos are all scheduled for Saturday- the former two events are played in the Middle East where Finals tend to be concluded on the Saturday, while Los Cabos have organised a way for their players reaching the business end of the tournament to have a bit of recovery time if they are going to be playing at any of the big ATP 500 events that are set for next week before attention turns to Indian Wells and Miami.</div><div><br /></div><div>Any selections from the two tournaments in Central and South America will be added when the Quarter Finals and Semi Finals are concluded, while there won't be a selection from the ATP Doha Final.</div><div><br /></div><div>The lean is with Karen Khachanov there, but Jakub Mensik has overcome the odds and the numbers and is playing with a real belief that could be tough to shake off.</div><div><br /></div><div>Instead the sole Pick so far is from the surprising WTA Final in Dubai as the focus begins to shift towards a new week once this one hopefully comes to a positive conclusion.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Anna Kalinskaya - 3.5 games </b>v Jasmine Paolini: Wins over three top 10 Ranked opponents has pushed Anna Kalinskaya into the biggest match of her career and a real opportunity to back up her run at the Australian Open.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">A new career high World Ranking awaits when those are published on Monday morning, but a place inside the top 20 will be secured if Anna Kalinskaya can win the WTA 1000 event in Dubai.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Her opponent is also something of a surprise considering this is one of the top events outside of the Grand Slam events that players on the WTA Tour will play. Jasmine Paolini has perhaps not had as tough a run as Anna Kalinskaya, who has beaten the World Number 9, Number 3 and Number 1 in consecutive Rounds, but the Italian has made her way through the draw against three players who are Ranked higher than herself.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Benefiting from Elena Rybakina's withdrawal ahead of the Quarter Final match will have helped, but it has been a solid year so far for Jasmine Paolini who has cracked the top 20 of the World Rankings.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">There is no doubting the level being produced by Jasmine Paolini, but she is going to be facing an opponent who is getting plenty of joy out of her first serve and who has been playing elite tennis from the baseline. Any player that can rally with Iga Swiatek and begin to overpower the World Number 1 has to be given plenty of respect.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Anna Kalinskaya also has a slight mental edge having crushed Jasmine Paolini at the Australian Open last month.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">She served with real intensity in that Fourth Round match and the conditions in Dubai are clearly favouring the big hitting produced by the Russian who had to come through the Qualifiers to even make the main draw.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">That does mean she has played a lot of tennis this week, but Anna Kalinskaya will have a couple of weeks off after this match and she can put her all into it.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Jasmine Paolini will not roll over and has shown some quality form to reach the Final herself, but she is not quite playing as well as Anna Kalinskaya who has been producing her results against some of the very best players on the Tour. Emotionally this is a step down with the expectation on Kalinskaya's shoulders after being the underdog in the last couple of Rounds, but she has shown she can handle those in the earlier Rounds and can be backed to win the biggest title of her career.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><u style="font-weight: bold;">MY PICKS</u>: Anna Kalinskaya - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><u style="font-weight: bold;">Week Update</u>: 18-13, + 5.50 Units (62 Units Staked, + 8.87% Yield)</span></div>Dav Aulakhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05567080212652977095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4672495653037673446.post-69298516939066618082024-02-23T21:27:00.003+00:002024-02-23T21:27:51.424+00:00Boxing Picks 2024- Edgar Berlanga vs Paddy McCrory (February 24th)It might not be a weekend for the casual Boxing fan, but a big event in Japan and the chance for a fighter to cement himself as a real contender in the Super Middleweight Division should make for good viewing.<div><br /></div><div>March looks like it will begin with a quality Featherweight World Title bout for a vacant Belt and the month will be concluded by PBC's first card being shown on Amazon.</div><div><br /></div><div>We also have the big crossover fight between Anthony Joshua and Francis Ngannou in between and a few domestic level cards that will be of interest as some of the winners look to press forward towards the World level.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>Another solid return from a weekend of Boxing action has just pushed the numbers into a decent position as we get ready to conclude the first two months of the 2024 season.</div><div><br /></div><div>It could have been better, but it could have been a lot worse and that is important.</div><div><br /></div><div>Being in front is clearly better than being behind and another strong weekend will put an exclamation point on the first couple of months of the year.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQKuoxB-OxeKw-ZjCJHMvBwD5aP6AmFfExvVGSakreKBKsT8eSAusrc-G4iltQO14kla2Hc0IOrbw2Ey839dOHg-W9YlB2njP-ARdxtkwSxBoYrj0bgSvwyN6GjmvCLw2j4qUJK1D0-ahBk5sE2PXEiekJDCTqDr17kK0fC4bZLLkSONacw6FwQyCimUJi/s768/Berlanga%20McCrory.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="768" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQKuoxB-OxeKw-ZjCJHMvBwD5aP6AmFfExvVGSakreKBKsT8eSAusrc-G4iltQO14kla2Hc0IOrbw2Ey839dOHg-W9YlB2njP-ARdxtkwSxBoYrj0bgSvwyN6GjmvCLw2j4qUJK1D0-ahBk5sE2PXEiekJDCTqDr17kK0fC4bZLLkSONacw6FwQyCimUJi/w400-h400/Berlanga%20McCrory.jpeg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Edgar Berlanga vs Paddy McCrory</span></b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">There is still a lot of uncertainty about who Canelo Alvarez will pick for his May showcase fight and Edgar Berlanga's promoter Eddie Hearn is hoping his man can produce a massive highlight reel kind of victory that will be followed by a callout of the Mexican.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Sixteen straight wins and all of those inside the First Round built the reputation and the hype around Edgar Berlanga, but the last five victories have all been on the cards.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Like many will state, the feeling is that the Rounds Edgar Berlanga has banked in recent bouts will have grown him as a fighter.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">He is showing the power remains, but Berlanga will be looking to make a bigger statement when facing Paddy McCrory.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Any unbeaten opponent has to be respected, and Paddy McCrory is going to know this is a big opportunity for him to gatecrash the top of the Division.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">At 35 years old, time is not really on Paddy McCrory's side and this is a considerable step up compared with his usual level of opponent. The expectation is that he will not be hard to find in the ring, but that should only play to Edgar Berlanga's advantage and this looks to be the kind of opponent that can have the favourite looking very good and pressing fans to push for Berlanga to be involved in big fights going forward.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">There has been talk about the Paddy McCrory power and he has Stoppages in half of the eighteen wins secured in his unbeaten pro career, but this is a considerable step up from his usual level of opponent. He has spoken about not having the same opportunities as others so this should be a big effort from the underdog, but it may also mean being forced to go out on his shield.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">It has been a while, but Edgar Berlanga can finally earn his first Stoppage win since July 2020.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">The fighter most may be looking forward to seeing on the undercard is <b>Andy Cruz</b> and he should be able to showcase his talent again. The expectation has to be that he will be fast tracked towards a World Title so look for him to step up competition after this third professional bout with his promoter already calling for an early meeting with Keyshawn Davis.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">We also have <b>Shakhram Giyasov </b>looking to keep pushing up the World Rankings in the Welterweight Division.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Terence Crawford still holds the Division together, but is expected to move up in weight class after beating Errol Spence Jr and that will mean a number of World Titles are vacated with Giyasov right up amongst the elite left behind.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Fighting for a potentially vacant WBO World Title or for the full WBA World Title are options that will open up for Shakhram Giyasov and he can make a big statement to others in the Division.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Pablo Cesar Cano will be coming up in weight for this challenge and the veteran will be looking to use all of his experience to test his unbeaten opponent.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">However, early Stoppage defeats in recent fights at the weight class below is a concern and this could be another for the Mexican to absorb.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">There is a very good card taking place in Japan with a number of the home fighters looking to continue pushing their reputation.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Junto Nakatani</b> is looking to become a three weight World Champion and he is a strong favourite to beat Alexandro Santiago who holds the WBO Bantamweight World Title.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">This is a proper test for the home fighter and Santiago has to be respected for beating Nonito Donaire last time out to take the World Title from the future Hall of Fame fighter.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">I do think Nakatani will have enough to win, but it will be a good watch to see whether the power has carried up to this weight class. The most likely outcome is a win on the cards, but it will be a watching brief.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Naoya Inoue's brother is also in action on the undercard and <b>Takuma Inoue</b> can just edge the decision to retain his WBA Bantamweight World Title. Perhaps this will lead to a huge Unification in Japan against Junto Nakatani if both are successful, although there is a natural rivalry between Jason Moloney and Nakatani if both are holding World Titles by the end of the first half of the season.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Kosei Tanaka can also win on the loaded card that takes place on Saturday morning for those of us in the United Kingdom.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><u style="font-weight: bold;">MY PICKS</u>: Edgar Berlanga to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 2.37 Bet Victor (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Shakhram Giyasov to Win Between 1-6 @ 2.87 Sky Bet (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><u style="font-weight: bold;">Boxing 2024</u>: 10-13, + 9.31 Units (36 Units Staked, + 25.86% Yield)</span></div>Dav Aulakhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05567080212652977095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4672495653037673446.post-66661740037672815482024-02-23T01:14:00.004+00:002024-02-23T15:43:17.646+00:00Tennis Picks 2024 (Friday 23rd February)This has been a decent enough week, but there are still those matches that 'got away' and it is very hard to make much sense of the way Marketa Vondrousova was beaten in her Quarter Final against Sorana Cirstea.<div><br />Leading 6-2, 5-1, the Wimbledon Champion missed multiple Match Points and failed to serve out the match on three separate occasions in a defeat that will potentially linger for some time.</div><div><br /></div><div>She will have an opportunity to recover over the next month with some big hard court events to be played, but it is frustrating for the Tennis Picks to not have a stronger day when a loss like that one hits the board.</div><div><br /></div><div>It was better in other events, but there is still a couple of days to negotiate before this week can be stamped as the first positive one of the season or not.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>Selections from the two ATP events in Los Cabos and Rio de Janeiro will be added to this thread, if there are any selections, and the week totals will be updated at that time too.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Iga Swiatek - 5.5 games </b>v Anna Kalinskaya: A dominant run through the Middle East in the last couple of years would have made Iga Swiatek the favourite to win the tournament in Dubai this week and the World Number 1 has not let anyone down.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">With her main rivals all exiting before the Semi Final, Iga Swiatek is now a very strong favourite to pick up the title on Saturday.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">However, she made it clear in her post match interview on Thursday that Swiatek is taking nothing for granted and she will have to give Anna Kalinskaya plenty of respect considering the start the Russian player has made to the 2024 season.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">She reached the Quarter Final at the Australian Open and Kalinskaya has won six matches in Dubai after coming through the Qualifiers to make the main draw. Her win over Coco Gauff in the Quarter Final on Thursday will have really gotten people to take notice and Anna Kalinskaya has only dropped the one set in her run at this WTA 1000 event.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">The World Number 40 is making good use of a heavy serve and strong groundstrokes and those really make a big impact on the courts here in Dubai. It is certainly going to make Anna Kalinskaya a threat to Iga Swiatek, although the Polish player is on very strong form and has a pretty solid serve of her own.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">The difference is that Iga Swiatek has been a little more productive on the return of serve and she may be a bit more solid than Coco Gauff if she is able to get in front as the American did in the Quarter Final.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">One of the best front runners on the Tour, Iga Swiatek can find a way to break down the Anna Kalinskaya game and the return of serve may prove to be a bit too strong for a much improved player. When she was beaten in Melbourne, Anna Kalinskaya just fell away against Qinwen Zheng and the feeling is that Iga Swiatek will be able to break her down in this Semi Final.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Cameron Norrie - 3.5 games </b>v Thiago Seyboth Wild: The defending Champion has made serene progress through the first couple of Rounds in Rio de Janeiro, but Cameron Norrie has to be expecting a much sterner test in the Quarter Final.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">For starters this will be the first time this week that he will be facing a home player and the crowds in South America can really play a big part in the outcome of matches.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">His opponent, Thiago Seyboth Wild, has been doing just enough to make his way through his opening two matches and that will have built up some confidence. While he will need to be a lot better than he was in the First Round, Seyboth Wild was stronger in the Second Round win and has shown plenty of promise on the clay courts over the last twelve months, even if the start to 2024 has been underwhelming.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Serving well will be very important for Thiago Seyboth Wild to just make sure he is keeping his side of the scoreboard ticking over. That is certainly going to at least put some pressure on Cameron Norrie, who has loved the conditions at this event and who has been dominant behind serve so far this week.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Anything below par will give Cameron Norrie the opportunity to attack Thiago Seyboth Wild and the World Number 23 has just shown a bit more sign of returning to his top level.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Beating a home player who has built up some momentum is never easy, but Cameron Norrie did beat Brazilian Thiago Monteiro on his way to winning the title in Rio de Janeiro last year and he can get the better of this home hope.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><u style="font-weight: bold;">MY PICKS</u>: Iga Swiatek - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)<br />Cameron Norrie - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><u style="font-weight: bold;">Week Update</u>: 17-12, + 5.84 Units (58 Units Staked, + 10.07% Yield)</span></div>Dav Aulakhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05567080212652977095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4672495653037673446.post-55074752543040000632024-02-22T01:54:00.003+00:002024-02-22T11:18:37.213+00:00Tennis Picks 2024 (Thursday 22nd February)<div>The Tennis continues on Thursday, although the tournament in Rio de Janeiro looks like it is going to be hit hard by the weather through the remaining few days there.</div><div><br /></div><div>That is not the case for the WTA Dubai event and the two ATP tournaments in Doha and Los Cabos and the Tennis Picks will be added to this thread.</div><div><br /></div><div>However, the time zones and the faster than usual nature of the scheduling this week means the markets are taking a little longer to be put together. That is contributing to the need to add selections after the initial thread is posted and that remains the situation.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>Rain has meant the entire Second Round of the Rio de Janeiro tournament has been pushed into Thursday and both selections from Wednesday will be completed then. The week update is of every match that has been completed with a full result and that is at the bottom of the thread, while selections from the two tournaments played in the Western part of the world have also been added.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Marketa Vondrousova - 2.5 games </b>v Sorana Cirstea: Some of the bigger names have had a challenging time working their way through to the WTA Dubai Quarter Final and the same could be said for Marketa Vondrousova, the Wimbledon Champion.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Well that certainly could have been said about her Second Round win over Payton Stearns as the Czech player came through a decider, but she was much stronger in the Third Round win on Wednesday.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">After a relatively disappointing start to the season, Marketa Vondrousova has to be pleased with the level shown in Dubai through the first couple of matches. It is the return of serve that has been really effective for her and only a slight improvement in the serving numbers will be needed if Vondrousova wants to start stringing some wins together.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">She will have to be very much focused on this Quarter Final opponent Sorana Cirstea who continues to enjoy playing some of her best tennis of her career just when it felt like she should be past her prime.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Even a defeat on Thursday will not prevent Sorana Cirstea from heading back to her peak career World Ranking which was achieved eleven years ago, while further successes in Dubai may finally see the Romanian crack the top 20 of the Rankings for the first time.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">That has to be the ambition for Sorana Cirstea going forward and she will be happy with her own level in Dubai having won three matches and fighting back from what looked like being a losing effort in her win over Donna Vekic. Over two hours were needed for Sorana Cirstea to win that match and it will be interesting to see if she can recover physically as well as mentally to prepare for this Quarter Final.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">It has been a solid start to 2024 for Cirstea and her first serve can be a very strong weapon when operating at its best. However, too many second serves will give Marketa Vondrousova the impetus to take control of rallies and it may give the Wimbledon Champion an opportunity to turn the tables after two closes losses to this opponent over the last eighteen months.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Both were on hard courts so there will be a confidence in Sorana Cirstea when she enters this match, but Marketa Vondrousova may feel she has just missed out when the big points have been played in those defeats and this time she could be playing well enough to turn things around. That will be 'easier' to do if Cirstea is feeling the efforts of her Third Round win and the Czech lefty can be backed to find a way through to the Semi Final.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Iga Swiatek - 5.5 games </b>v Qinwen Zheng: Over the next three months, Iga Swiatek has a lot of World Ranking points to defend, but she has an opportunity to extend the gap to World Number 2 Aryna Sabalenka with a strong end to the tournament in Dubai.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Adding the Miami Masters to her schedule will give Swiatek a bit of room for error, while the World Number 1 remains the player to beat when the clay court events roll around.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Playing through the Middle East has been a very positive time for Iga Swiatek and she reached the Final in Dubai last year having won the title in Doha. She has already defended that title and Iga Swiatek is going to be tough to stop in her bid to win the title here too.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">The Australian Open Runner Up may have something to say about that and Qinwen Zheng has looked pretty decent in the last couple of Rounds after an early loss in Doha. There are still some questions for the World Number 7 to answer despite reaching a maiden Grand Slam Final and that is largely down to the lack of top quality opponents that have been beaten so far.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Qinwen Zheng did beat Marketa Vondrousova at the United Cup in January, but after that, the highest Ranked player she has beaten in 2024 is World Number 35 Anastasia Potapova. That win was earned in the Third Round on Wednesday, but it is hard to ignore that Zheng has been well beaten in both matches played against Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek this season and was pretty poor in her loss to Leylah Fernandez last week.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Over the last twelve months, Qinwen Zheng has a 6-8 record against top 20 Ranked opponents and that falls to 3-5 against the top 10. On the face of it that is not too bad, but the likes of Elena Rybakina, Swiatek and Sabalenka are a different proving ground for Qinwen Zheng.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">She has lost all five previous matches against Iga Swiatek, including all three played on the hard courts.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Credit has to be given to Qinwen Zheng for the fact she has taken a set from the World Number 1 in two of the three hard court matches, but she has not been able to maintain the level required and all of the defeats have been relatively comfortable by the end of the match.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">The first serve will be crucial for Qinwen Zheng, but there is room for improvement behind the second serve and her return of serve and these are areas that Iga Swiatek should exploit.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">In the last two hard court matches between the two, Iga Swiatek has really taken hold of the return of serve and something similar in Dubai is likely going to lead to another strong win for the top player on the WTA Tour.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Ugo Humbert - 2.5 games </b>v Gael Monfils: The biggest challenge for Ugo Humbert may be the fact he is facing one of the big names in recent French Tennis history.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">However, Ugo Humbert has played Gael Monfils twice before and he has to be feeling very confident having won a title already this month and sitting in the top 20 of the World Rankings.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Gael Monfils is still plenty athletic around the court and he is capable of some big serving, which does make him dangerous.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">He has played just about well enough in the first two matches in Doha to reach this Quarter Final, but Monfils is playing on the fine margins and someone like Ugo Humbert is playing well enough to force the veteran on the back foot.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">It is much more difficult to keep making the big plays when put under pressure and the feeling is that Ugo Humbert will break down the Gael Monfils game.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">This has the potential of being an awkward spread, but Humbert can do enough to move into the Semi Final behind another decent win in 2024.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Sebastian Baez - 2.5 games </b>v Facundo Diaz Acosta: He is playing at a career high World Ranking after winning the title in Buenos Aires so Facundo Diaz Acosta will not be lacking for confidence.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">A win over Stan Wawrinka in the First Round in Rio de Janeiro will have furthered that belief in his own tennis, but Diaz Acosta will remember a painful lesson that was dished out by Sebastian Baez just a couple of weeks ago.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">This one is expected to be closer, but Baez continues to show he is a confident and solid clay courter and the expectation is that he franks the win he had over Facundo Diaz Acosta in Cordoba.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">It is a tough spot for the lower Ranked of the compatriots having played all through last week, and that should give Sebastian Baez the narrow edge to progress with a win and a cover.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Jordan Thompson - 1.5 games </b>v Alex Michelsen: Both of these players have come through for me this week so it is is not easy to oppose either, but the expectation was that Jordan Thompson would be a stronger favourite than he is.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">The Australian has continued playing at an extremely solid level when not facing the very top players on the Tour and the last month has been very good to him.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Jordan Thompson will be hoping a little bit of inexperience from Alex Michelsen also perhaps aids him in this match.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Alex Michelsen crushed Alex De Minaur in the Second Round for what may be his biggest Tour win in his career, but backing those up can be difficult the first couple of times around. That will be the challenge for him against someone like Jordan Thompson who is playing with a lot of confidence right now.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">I do think the potential in Alex Michelsen is higher than Jordan Thompson has had in his career, but at this moment, the latter is playing well enough to just serve well enough and put enough pressure on his younger opponent to find a way past him into the Los Cabos Semi Final.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><u style="font-weight: bold;">MY PICKS</u>: Marketa Vondrousova - 2.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Iga Swiatek - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Ugo Humbert - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Sebastian Baez - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Jordan Thompson - 1.5 Games @ 1.95 Coral (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><u style="font-weight: bold;">Week Update</u>: 14-8, + 8.70 Units (44 Units Staked, + 19.77% Yield)</span></div>Dav Aulakhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05567080212652977095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4672495653037673446.post-15928062423956612372024-02-20T23:08:00.002+00:002024-02-21T17:33:40.600+00:00Tennis Picks 2024 (Wednesday 21st February)The first three days in Dubai are always extremely busy with the tournament looking for a Saturday finish, despite having a big field entering, and the entire Second Round was played on Tuesday.<div><br /></div><div>All eight Third Round matches are scheduled for Wednesday in what is another busy day at the tournament, while the ATP events in Doha, Rio de Janeiro are moving into Second Round action.</div><div><br /></div><div>There were a number of selections from the Tuesday action in Dubai, but the Wednesday matches look much tougher to predict.</div><div><br /></div><div>Any Picks from the two ATP tournaments played in South America and Central America will be added to this thread on Wednesday, as will the week's totals.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Maria Sakkari - 3.5 games </b>v Jasmine Paolini: A poor end to 2023 looked to be behind Maria Sakkari when playing at the United Cup in January, but a disappointing Second Round exit at the Australian Open would have knocked some of the confidence.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Opening losses in Abu Dhabi and Doha have just increased the pressure around Maria Sakkari and it is no surprise that the World Number 11 has decided to make changes. It was announced that a six year Coaching arrangement with Tom Hill was to be ended and Sakkari is now looking for a new voice to take her forward.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Julien Cagnina looks to have taken over the role for now and Maria Sakkari was able to beat Emma Navarro in the Second Round on Tuesday. That is a pretty solid win for someone who had lost three matches in a row and Sakkari has to be very happy with the level she produced in that victory.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Backing it up will be the big challenge for Maria Sakkari, but she looks to have a decent enough match up in front of her in the Third Round against Jasmine Paolini.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">The Italian has upset Beatriz Haddad Maia and Leylah Fernandez to make it through to the Third Round and so there has to be plenty of respect given to Jasmine Paolini. However, it should also be noted that she has been a touch fortunate at key times within those matches and Jasmine Paolini had also been beaten in three matches in a row before the wins Dubai to restore some confidence.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Both of these players will be happy with their return abilities, but the key to the outcome of the match could be the Maria Sakkari second serve. This is a shot that she has looked after a little more effectively than Jasmine Paolini has been able to do with her own second serve and may see them separated in this Third Round contest.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Maria Sakkari did win their sole previous match at the French Open in 2021, but that is not really relevant to this one.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">You have to respect the fight that Jasmine Paolini is likely to bring to the court, but the hard court should favour Maria Sakkari who can find a way to cover this spread on her way to a spot in the Dubai Quarter Finals.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Alexander Bublik </b>v Marton Fucsovics: The only selection from Dubai is followed by the only selection from the ATP Doha Second Round.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">All of the matches in that Round are scheduled to be played on Wednesday and there was almost enough in the Jakub Mensik price to beat Andy Murray to entice that selection.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">However, the favourite has been switched in that match and the selection comes from this pick 'em match.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">It is never easy to trust Alexander Bublik because he is a player that will choose poor shot selections if it means rattling an opponent or exciting a crowd. Sometimes it works and Bublik did win a title in Montpellier earlier this month, but he has had some poor losses already in 2024.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">While he is erratic, Marton Fucsovics is a solid competitor on the Tour even if he has dropped down into World Number 80. The Hungarian produced a strong First Round win, but this has not been a great match up for him and Marton Fucsovics has lost his last three matches against Alexander Bublik and not been nearly as competitive as he would have hoped.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">The last of those was in 2022 so may not mean as much right now, but Alexander Bublik is playing at a slightly stronger level on the returning side of his tennis and that may end up working him through to the Quarter Finals.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">In the previous head to head, Bublik has had a returning edge over Marton Fucsovics, while he has had a slight edge on the hard courts over the last twelve month period.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Nothing will be easy in this match and the fine margins will decide it, but Alexander Bublik can get on top of the biggest points to earn a path through to the next Round of the ATP Doha event.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Rain meant one of the Tennis Picks from the tournament in Rio had to be postponed until today, but there is also a case to add another couple of selections from that event which is moving into the Second Round.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">One of those is backing <b>Jaume Munar</b> to get the better of home player Thiago Seyboth Wild- the Spaniard has won all three previous meetings and looks to be playing the superior tennis, although the home crowd will be firmly behind Seyboth Wild.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">However, the latter is going to have to be a lot better than in the First Round if he is going to find a way through and Munar has beaten Thiago Seyboth Wild on a Brazilian clay court before.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">The expectation is also that <b>Cameron Norrie</b>, the defending Champion, can cover another pretty wide spread as he moves into the Quarter Final. His opponent Tomas Barrios Vera has not been in very good form through the South American Golden Swing and has not faced opponents of this level very often of late.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">The entire Second Round of the Los Cabos tournament is to be played on Wednesday with another Saturday Final scheduled.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">While the markets took a while to be put up, the only match of interest for me was the one involving <b>Jordan Thompson</b>.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">The Australian has been in fine form in Dallas and Delray Beach and is making a solid habit of beating those he is expected to, as will be the case in the Second Round here.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Serving as well as he has been will put considerable pressure on Emilio Nava and Thompson has been returning well enough to give him a chance of covering this mark.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">I also liked Marcos Giron to get the better of Casper Ruud, who has not been playing much competitive tennis since the exit at the Australian Open. However, the layers are anticipating the upset and so the sole selection from this event is one the highlighted.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><u style="font-weight: bold;">MY PICKS</u>: Maria Sakkari - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Alexander Bublik @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Jaume Munar - 1.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Cameron Norrie - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Jordan Thompson - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><u style="font-weight: bold;">Week Update</u>: 12-6, + 9.30 Units (36 Units Staked, + 25.83% Yield)</span></div>Dav Aulakhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05567080212652977095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4672495653037673446.post-58526796589644077082024-02-20T01:20:00.002+00:002024-02-20T15:50:30.166+00:00Tennis Picks 2024 (Tuesday 20th February)The WTA tournament being played in Dubai is using a big format and that means they are rushing through the Rounds.<div><br /></div><div>To put it another way, the First Round may have been split over two days, but the entire Second Round is scheduled to be completed on Tuesday. This will mean the Third Round is played on Wednesday, the Quarter Finals on Thursday and the Semi Final and Final will be completed on Friday and Saturday.</div><div><br /></div><div>Sixteen Second Round matches are set to be played on Tuesday and a number of courts are being used on what is going to be an extremely busy day for a tournament outside of the Grand Slam events.</div><div><br /></div><div>Matches are also scheduled for the tournaments being run by the ATP Tour, although the Picks, if any, from Los Cabos and Rio de Janeiro will be added to this thread, as will the weekly update once all of the Monday scheduled matches are completed.</div><div><br /></div><div>There are not going to be any Picks from the ATP Doha matches scheduled for Tuesday- the only one that even had me a little interested to find an angle proved unappealing in the end and that will be a tournament that will hopefully provide more options as we move into the Second Round and beyond.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Leylah Fernandez - 4.5 games </b>v Jasmine Paolini: It was perhaps not as easy as the final scoreboard might have suggested, but Leylah Fernandez did play well enough to earn her spot in the Second Round at the WTA Dubai event. This keeps some positive momentum behind the Canadian who had not had the best start to 2024, but who played well in Doha last week and looks to have brung that form into this latest WTA 1000 tournament.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">She was a favourite to beat Bernarda Pera and Leylah Fernandez will be the favourite again when she takes on Italian Jasmine Paolini in the Second Round.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Jasmine Paolini has had to Qualify for the WTA Dubai event in the last couple of years and managed to do that each time, but she had not won a main draw match until beating Beatriz Haddad Maia in the First Round on Sunday. The fightback within that match will have given Jasmine Paolini confidence and she is playing on a career high World Ranking mark.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Unsurprisingly there have been plenty of successes on the clay courts, but Paolini is a solid enough hard court player who deserves to be respected. She reached the Fourth Round at the Australian Open and Jasmine Paolini has been able to snap a three match losing run in coming from behind to beat Haddad Maia.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">There is no doubt that there is still room for improvement in her tennis on the hard courts- over the last twelve months it has been seen that the Paolini serve can be a little vulnerable when playing top 50 Ranked opponents on this surface. That puts a bit more pressure on the return, which is clearly more challenging on the faster surfaces compared with her favoured clay courts.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">You may not always expect Leylah Fernandez to have very strong serving numbers, but she does look after that shot well enough. If the Canadian can get enough first serves in play, she will believe she can dictate the tempo of this match and that will be key for Fernandez as she looks to earn a place in the Third Round.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">The head to head will certainly give Leylah Fernandez plenty of confidence too having won all three previous matches against Jasmine Paolini. All of those have been on the hard courts and Fernandez is yet to drop a set, while the two most recent wins were both played in 2023.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Leylah Fernandez has had a clear edge in her serving games in the two wins produced over Jasmine Paolini last season and she won 51% of points played against the Paolini serve. That is likely to be the key to this match and the former US Open Runner Up can find a way to win and cover as she progresses to the Third Round of back to back tournaments in the Middle East.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Marketa Vondrousova - 4.5 games </b>v Payton Stearns: A win over Mirra Andreeva should give Payton Stearns a boost in confidence as she snapped a four match losing run to open her 2024 season.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">It was a back and forth match against the talented teenager, but Stearns was able to come out on top and move into this Second Round match against Marketa Vondrousova.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">After playing well at the US Open in September, Payton Stearns has really struggled for form in her hard court matches. Following her Fourth Round exit in New York City, Stearns had been on a 3-9 run on the Tour in hard court matches before getting the better of Andreeva in the First Round.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Marketa Vondrousova has not exactly been at her best level in 2024 herself, but there were some signs that she was getting closer last week in Doha. She had chances in her loss to Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, although there are some question marks about Vondrousova's current form and whether she can cover such a big handicap mark.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">She has beaten Payton Stearns pretty comfortably in the two previous matches- one of those was at Wimbledon, a tournament Marketa Vondrousova went on to win, and the other was at the US Open.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Much like Payton Stearns, Marketa Vondrousova followed the US Open with a relatively poor run of form that has seeped into the 2024 season.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br />However, over the last twelve months, Stearns has struggled to a 1-8 record when facing top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts and her numbers have been pretty poor in that time too. While it is very difficult to trust Marketa Vondrousova on her current form, she has tended to be good enough to beat those outside of the top 20 of the World Rankings and the Czech player has had an edge in the serving numbers when facing Payton Stearns.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova </b>v Liudmila Samsonova: It looks a good opportunity to back Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova to continue her strong form from Doha as a slight underdog in this Second Round match.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">A relatively comfortable win was produced in the First Round and there should not be any excuses about a long week in Doha in preventing Pavlyuchenkova from finding her best tennis in Dubai. The lack of distance between the tournaments and the fact that her Semi Final defeat was last Friday means there has been ample time to recover as Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova looks to get the better of her compatriot.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">It had been a poor start to 2024 for Liudmila Samsonova who lost her first three matches, including a First Round exit at the Australian Open, but she had a solid run in Abu Dhabi.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Like her opponent, Samsonova found Elena Rybakina too hot to handle in that Semi Final in Abu Dhabi before another early exit in Doha last week. However, a solid First Round win in Dubai will have given Liudmila Samsonova a bit more confidence and she will know that her serve can be a massive weapon on relatively quick hard courts.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">However, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova can produce some dangerous serving of her own and looks to be playing with a bit more consistency of the two Russians.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Out of the two players, Pavlyuchenkova has been getting slightly more out of the return of serve and that could be key in a match that may come down to the fine margins.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Anna Kalinskaya - 4.5 games </b>v Cristina Bucsa: The run to the Australian Open Quarter Final would have come as a surprise to those outside of Anna Kalinskaya's team. The challenge for the player is backing up that performance and building on reaching a new career high World Ranking, which is why the early defeat in Doha would have been a blow.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">She has battled through the Qualifiers to take her place in the main draw in Dubai and Anna Kalinskaya has won all three matches at the tournament without dropping a set.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">This will have restored any drop in confidence and the hard court numbers in 2024 continue to impress.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Anna Kalinskaya deserves to be set as the favourite in this Second Round match against Cristina Bucsa who is playing in her third tournament this season as a Lucky Loser. She was beaten in the final Dubai Qualifier by Storm Sanders, but benefits from Ons Jabeur's subsequent withdrawal.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Cristina Bucsa did reach the Abu Dhabi Quarter Final as a Lucky Loser and she will feel this draw gives her a chance of extending her run in this tournament too. However, the Spaniard has not produced the same level as her opponent so far in 2024, especially when not playing the better players on the Tour, while Anna Kalinskaya will have fond memories of beating Bucsa in straight sets in Brisbane in January.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">There was a massive edge in favour of the Russian on the return that day, but this match is expected to be closer. Of course it can't really be expected to be as one-sided as when Kalinskaya dropped just two games, but even a closer match is one in which the favourite can win and cover.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">As long as Anna Kalinskaya can look after her own serve, the pressure should build on the Cristina Bucsa serve and the World Number 40 can find the breaks she needs to progress with some comfort.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Qinwen Zheng - 5.5 games </b>v Nao Hibino: Any time a player reaches a Grand Slam Final, the target on their back will increase in size and opponents will really try and knock someone from off of their perch.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">A 'nothing to lose' kind of approach to those matches can make it tough for the Grand Slam Finalist and especially when it has come unexpectedly.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Qinwen Zheng reached the Final at the Australian Open, but you have to factor in the way the draw opened up for her before she was well beaten in the Final by Aryna Sabalenka. Her performance in Doha was inconsistent to say the least and so it is perhaps a difficult spot in which to trust her to win, never mind cover a spread like this one.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">However, Nao Hibino is not playing to the level she once was and she has suffered some one-sided defeats on the hard courts in 2024. Three wins in Dubai will have just given Hibino a boost in confidence to take into this Second Round match against an opponent who received a Bye through to this stage of the tournament, although the World Number 93 will know there is a considerable talent gap to bridge.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">The Japanese player has always been comfortable on the hard courts, but she has a vulnerable serve and especially when she has been playing top 50 Ranked opponents over the last twelve months.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">You don't always know what you are going to get from the Qinwen Zheng return, but she does have a big serve and that should at least contain some of the threat that Nao Hibino will bring to the court. Nao Hibino's return numbers have been pretty poor against the top players on the Tour over the last twelve months and it will build scoreboard pressure in favour of Zheng.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Over the last twelve months, Qinwen Zheng has won all fourteen hard court matches against players Ranked outside the top 50. The serve has dominated and she has won 47% of the return points played in those matches too.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Covering a spread like this one has been an issue with eight failures in those fourteen wins, but Nao Hibino has struggled to stay competitive within matches so Qinwen Zheng can be backed for a rare big cover here.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Karolina Pliskova - 2.5 games </b>v Ashlyn Krueger: The biggest question about this Second Round match is how well Karolina Pliskova has recovered having played a lot of tennis over the last couple of weeks.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Winning the title in Cluj and then fighting her way through to the Doha Semi Final took its toll on the former World Number 1 and she was not able to compete in that match against Iga Swiatek.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Karolina Pliskova was able to beat veteran Shuai Zhang in the First Round, although that win is not massively impressive considering how long the latter has been out of competitive action. It was a solid, if unspectacular, performance from Karolina Pliskova and she may need to be a bit better when facing Ashlyn Krueger.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Coming from a set down to beat Caroline Garcia and having Monday as a day of rest is a benefit for the American, although it has been a relative struggle to find consistency for the 19 year old. She has put a few wins on the board in 2024, but Ashlyn Krueger knows the majority of those have been in Qualifying Rounds and this is a much tougher test.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">None of the matches have been 'easy' though and wins over top 100 Ranked players have been racked up.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">That will give Krueger confidence and she has been able to exert some control of matches with her serve. The teenager will need to serve well if Karolina Pliskova is bringing her best form to the court and the feeling is that the Czech player will ultimately have a bit too much know-how at this stage of their respective careers.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Jelena Ostapenko - 5.5 games </b>v Lulu Sun: It looked like the run of beating everyone she has faced but Victoria Azarenka in 2024 might have been under threat when dropping four games in a row to lose the first set.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">In previous years this might have ended up seeing Jelena Ostapenko just self-combust, but she has shown decent mental strength to recover and ultimately move through to the Second Round in Dubai without too many issues.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">The Latvian will be a big favourite when playing Lulu Sun, the 22 year old from Switzerland who is Ranked outside the top 200 but who has been given a Wild Card into the Dubai tournament. A win over Paula Badosa should be a huge boost for Lulu Sun, even though the match ended prematurely at the end of the first set, while she did Qualify for main draw matches in Auckland and at the Australian Open.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">It is still a big leap upwards to face Ostapenko in the form she has been in, while Sun had not been competitive in her two matches against top 100 Ranked opponents before beating Paula Badosa.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">In fact she had never beaten a top 100 Ranked opponent on the hard courts prior to the First Round here in Dubai and Lulu Sun had struggled to be very competitive. The first serve has been decent enough, but the second is vulnerable and finding enough quality on the return of serve is something the young player is still trying to develop.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">An aggressive player like Jelena Ostapenko is likely going to offer a stern examination of the Lulu Sun game and the feeling is that the World Number 11 will continue her strong form to open this season.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Elina Svitolina - 5.5 games </b>v Tatjana Maria: She reached the Final in Auckland before narrowly losing to Coco Gauff and Elina Svitolina looked to be motoring in another strong Grand Slam effort at the Australian Open.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Three wins in straight sets took the Ukrainian into the Fourth Round in Melbourne, but an unexpected and shocking back issue forced Elina Svitolina to withdraw from that Fourth Round match after just three games had been played.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">She has not really been able to explain what happened and Svitolina has spent some time away following the Australian Open, but she was able to produce a strong First Round win on Monday.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Now there is every chance Elina Svitolina can back that up against another veteran Tatjana Maria who has had a difficult start to the season. Her win in the First Round will be a boost, but Maria has suffered some extremely one-sided losses this season and it may be a tough match up for her in this one.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">The five losses that Tatjana Maria has suffered this season have been by margins of eleven, seven, six, eleven and ten games- when she has lost, she has lost very, very easily.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">The concern for her fans is that Tatjana Maria lost her last two hard court matches against Elina Svitolina in one-sided fashion, albeit the last of those was back in the 2018 US Open. Much has changed for both players in that time, but Elina Svitolina is still playing at a decent level after returning from giving birth and the edge has to be with the higher Ranked player.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Take away the retirement at the Australian Open and Elina Svitolina has won ten straight hard court matches against opponents Ranked outside the top 20. Strong serving has set her on her way and Elina Svitolina can get plenty of joy in the return during this Second Round to produce a strong win.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Adding the Tennis Picks from Rio de Janeiro and Los Cabos with a few thoughts on those.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">I do think both <b>Sebastian Baez </b>and <b>Arthur Fils</b> should both be able to cover big spreads- the former has been in decent form on the clay courts, while the latter is confident enough on the surface and taking on a young, inexperienced opponent.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Both of those players are competing in Rio, but in Los Cabos the play is on <b>Marcos Giron</b> to maintain the fine run of form he has been in through the month of February.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Taro Daniel can be dangerous on the hard courts, but Giron is playing well enough to grind him down and cover this relatively big handicap mark.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">There are a couple of underdogs that could certainly thrive in the First Round in Los Cabos, but neither Flavio Cobolli nor Nuno Borges convinced me to add them to the selections.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><u style="font-weight: bold;">MY PICKS</u>: Leylah Fernandez - 4.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Marketa Vondrousova - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Anna Kalinskaya - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Qinwen Zheng - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Karolina Pliskova - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Jelena Ostapenko - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)<br />Elina Svitolina - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Sebastian Baez - 4.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Arthur Fils - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Marcos Giron - 3.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><u style="font-weight: bold;">Week Update</u>: 5-4, + 0.84 Units (18 Units Staked, + 4.67% Yield)</span></div>Dav Aulakhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05567080212652977095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4672495653037673446.post-62927455437777915742024-02-19T01:13:00.004+00:002024-02-19T17:01:00.814+00:00Tennis Picks 2024 (Monday 19th February)The run through the Middle East before the majority of the Tour moves to the United States for back to back Masters events is an important time for many top names on the WTA and ATP.<div><br /></div><div>It is especially the case for the WTA players with the events in Doha and Dubai both classed as 1000 events, while the ATP events in the same two venues are at 250 and 500 level.</div><div><br /></div><div>Iga Swiatek won the title in Doha when getting the better of Elena Rybakina and both players will be looking to back up that run in Dubai. Another player in action is Australian Open Champion Aryna Sabalenka who competes for the first time since winning that Grand Slam title and only Jessica Pegula is unable to perform out of the very top players on this side of the Tour.</div><div><br /></div><div>This should mean another strong event, although the Seeds tumbled very early last week- eventually the cream did rise to the top, but it does make the early Rounds a minefield to negotiate.</div><div><br /></div><div>First Round action is completed in Dubai on Monday and the ATP events in Doha, Los Cabos and Rio de Janeiro are move into main draw action too. With the massive time differences between events, prices for markets are not always out in good time in London and so some of the threads will have Picks added to them as has been the case through the start of the month.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>The Tennis season has been very difficult so far and the month has been a poor one after the disappointment of the Australian Open.</div><div><br /></div><div>This week has not started very well either, but it is only the start of the week and this is the time where the turnaround has to begin- that does put some pressure on the selections, but the demand for better has always been around the Tennis Picks and so the situation is not very different to normal.</div><div><br /></div><div>However, things do have to change compared with the way they have been going- while the month has not been nearly as crushing as the start in January, it is very important to try and put a positive week on the board.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Leylah Fernandez - 4.5 games </b>v Bernarda Pera: The big tournament in Dubai is an opportunity for players like Leylah Fernandez and Bernarda Pera to push their World Ranking much higher than their current positions. Both have enjoyed operating at a higher level previously, but it has been a tough twelve months for both Fernandez and Pera as they prepare to face off in the WTA Dubai First Round.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Having to come through the Qualifiers at events in 2024 has given Bernarda Pera some confidence to take into matches- she has already won two matches in Dubai so the conditions are clearly going to be comfortable for Pera.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">She had to come from behind to win both Qualifying matches, and Bernarda Pera has won plenty of Qualifiers including two in Abu Dhabi earlier this month. However, she has only won one of her main draw matches in 2024 and the American is facing an opponent who had a decent run in Doha last week to build some confidence of her own.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">It feels like a lot of time has passed since Leylah Fernandez reached the US Open Final and she has never really been able to produce that kind of success since.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Disappointing early exits at the United Cup and Australian Open in January would have been a blow, but Leylah Fernandez won three matches in Doha last week.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">She can be difficult to trust to cover a spread like this one and that is because the Fernandez game is one that operates on fine margins- the Canadian does not have an overwhelming aspect to any part of her tennis and feels more like a reactive player than a proactive one with her speed around the court one of the stronger Leylah Fernandez attributes.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">These players did meet on a hard court in Washington last season and Leylah Fernandez was a relatively comfortable winner.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">The return game of both players has not been good enough to compete with the very top players on the Tour, but Leylah Fernandez does have a slight edge over Bernarda Pera in her serving numbers. It was also the case when they met in Washington several months ago and the Canadian can find a way to win and cover in this First Round match.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - 3.5 games </b>v Marie Bouzkova: Another strong showing in Doha has pushed Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova back towards her natural place on the WTA Tour. Injury had contributed to a slip down the World Rankings, but she reached the Semi Final in Doha on Friday and Pavlyuchenkova will be looking to back that up with the short move to Dubai for another WTA 1000 event.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">This is not an easy First Round match, but Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova has been serving well in 2024 and that has contributed to winning more often than not.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">First up for the Russian is a match against Marie Bouzkova who had reached her career best World Ranking fourteen months ago, but who has lost four of her last five matches having begun the year by reaching the Quarter Final in Auckland.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Confidence will have been affected by that run of results, but Bouzkova has to be respected with her performances perhaps a little stronger than those results have been.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">However this looks like a tough test for Marie Bouzkova.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova has really been playing well against those players Ranked outside the top 20 and her numbers have been very impressive in those matches. If she can maintain that level, Pavlyuchenkova should have the ability to win this First Round contest and cover the spread set.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Jelena Ostapenko - 4.5 games </b>v Xiyu Wang: The suggestion is that Jelena Ostapenko did not want to shake Victoria Azarenka's hand at the end of their match in Doha because of a change in policy set out by the Latvian government. Much like Ukrainian players, Latvian players are now not expected to shake hands with opponents from Russia or Belarus, but Azarenka was not buying that.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">The fact is that Ostapenko offered a racquet tap and there is clearly no love lost between them.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Jelena Ostapenko has to be frustrated considering she has lost all three matches played against Victoria Azarenka in 2024- that frustration is higher when you think she has a 14-0 record against every opponent faced.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">She should be good enough to see off Xiyu Wang in the First Round, even though Wang wil be feeling happy with her tennis having crushed two opponents in the Qualifiers. Xiyu Wang did not drop a set in those two wins, although this is going to be a considerable step up in terms of quality of opponent.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Nothing can be taken for granted in this match with Wang showing she can be very competitive if her opponent is not playing at their very best.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">However, the performances against top 50 players over the last twelve months have not been good enough and Xiyu Wang has struggled on the return of serve.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">There is no doubt that Jelena Ostapenko can be a little hard to trust with her overly aggressive style potentially leading to errors. She has had twelve wins against players Ranked outside the top 20 in 2024 and Ostapenko has covered this line in ten of those matches.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">While it won't be easy, Ostapenko may bounce back from the disappointing defeat in Doha to put another win on the board here.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Daria Kasatkina - 5.5 games </b>v Lucia Bronzetti: A Lucky Loser has entered the main draw after Marta Kostyuk was forced to withdraw, but this is a tough match for Lucia Bronzetti.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">The Abu Dhabi Runner Up was beaten early in Doha and Daria Kasatkina has had a mixed start to the season in terms of her overall level of performance.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">The tennis she produces means it can be something of a challenge for Kasatkina when it comes to covering big spreads- her serve can be vulnerable and she can be outhit, but it is very difficult to trust Lucia Bronzetti to be able to push the World Number 13 when you think she has lost eight matches in a row against top 100 Ranked opponents.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">The Italian has really found it tough over the last twelve months when it comes to hard court matches against top 50 Ranked opponents too. Lucia Bronzetti is 1-10 in those matches and her second serve has been vulnerable, while she has not been able to get into the return games nearly as effectively as she would have liked.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">As mentioned, the Daria Kasatkina serve can be vulnerable which makes it hard to cover big spreads.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">However, Kasatkina has won nearly 50% of return points played against opponents Ranked outside of the top 20 over a twelve month period in hard court matches. That ability to put pressure on the return can show up here and Daria Kasatkina may find the breaks of serve needed to earn a relatively comfortable passage into the Second Round.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">It is a pretty busy day in Los Cabos and Rio de Janeiro too with the First Round matches getting underway.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">I do like both <b>Alex Michelsen</b> and <b>Roman Safiullon</b> to win and cover in Los Cabos- the two players are in decent nick, but their opponents have been struggling for consistency and that could show up in those First Round matches.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Over in Rio, <b>Cameron Norrie</b> is the defending Champion and is expected to beat Hugo Dellien despite a poor tournament in Buenos Aires last time out. It can be tough to back Norrie to cover any kind of spread with his tennis played in tight margins and the fact he can play up or down to an opponent's level, but he should have enough to win his First Round match with the breaks of serve needed.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Alejandro Tabilo</b> is playing a home player who had a very good year on the clay courts in Thiago Seyboth Wild.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">The start to 2024 has not been nearly as effective though and Seyboth Wild is going to have to serve very well if Alejandro Tabilo is operating anywhere near his best form.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Back to back wins over the Brazilian should give Tabilo confidence too and he can edge past Thiago Seyboth Wild.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><u style="font-weight: bold;">MY PICKS</u>: Leylah Fernandez - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)<br />Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Jelena Ostapenko - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Daria Kasatkina - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Alex Michelsen - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Roman Safiullon - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Cameron Norrie - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Alejandro Tabilo - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><u style="font-weight: bold;">Weekly Update</u>: 0-1, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)</span></div>Dav Aulakhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05567080212652977095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4672495653037673446.post-58709839450803436002024-02-18T02:07:00.004+00:002024-02-18T13:17:30.580+00:00Tennis Picks 2024 (Sunday 18th February)<div>The WTA Dubai 1000 event is starting on Sunday and the three ATP Finals from the tournaments that began last week are to be played on the day too.</div><div><br /></div><div>Picks from the three Finals will be placed here when the markets are released, but the sole selection from Dubai can be read below.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Caroline Garcia - 1.5 games </b>v Ashlyn Krueger: After a decent showing at the United Cup in preparation for the Australian Open, Caroline Garcia might have been hoping to have had more positive results behind her as we get into the big tournament in Dubai.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">It has not worked out nearly as well as that and the former World Number 4 has been beaten in four of her last five matches, while Caroline Garcia has suffered early defeats in both Abu Dhabi and Doha ahead of this WTA 1000 event.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">To be fair to the Frenchwoman, she has had a couple of tough matches to deal with and her last three defeats have been by very tight margins.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">The First Round draw in Dubai offers Caroline Garcia a good opportunity to at least snap her losing run in this match against Ashlyn Krueger, the 19 year old American who has yet to break into the top 70 of the World Rankings.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Ashlyn Krueger has struggled to really make an impact against the stronger players on the WTA Tour as she tries to make her tennis work at this level. One positive for Krueger is that she has put a number of wins together in Abu Dhabi and Doha, albeit in the Qualifying Rounds, which will at least give her a bit of belief on the court.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">However, the record over the last twelve months against top 50 Ranked players on the hard courts has been very disappointing for Ashlyn Krueger and shows the kind of gap she will still need to bridge in this match.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">In that time span, Ashlyn Krueger has a 1-8 record against top 50 Ranked opponents on the surface and her second serve has been really vulnerable. It has been tough for her to recover in those matches with the return not being as effective as the American would like and there is no doubt that Caroline Garcia can be a very good server when feeling at her best.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">On current form it is hard to know if we are going to see that, but Caroline Garcia should still be good enough to find her way through to the Second Round at this big tournament.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Jannik Sinner - 4.5 games </b>v Alex De Minaur: The Final in Rotterdam looks a good one for the fans, but it is hard to oppose the Australian Open Champion.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Jannik Sinner has played well here this week and this is a player looking to rack up the World Ranking points as he bids to challenge for the top spot at the end of the year. Winning one Slam puts him well on the way, but winning titles at the ATP 500 and 1000 level will back up those performances in the majors and the Italian is looking in imperious form.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Take nothing away from Alex De Minaur's run to the Final and the very positive start he has had to 2024, but this has been a bad match up for him.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">On a faster court, it is going to be very difficult for De Minaur to impact a serve against which he has only managed to find a break in 10% of return games in their six match previous head to head. In the hard court head to head, that number drops further and it will mean the Australian faces a lot of pressure on his own serve.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Again, take nothing away from how Alex De Minaur has been playing this week.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">However, the serve was challenged by Andrey Rublev and David Goffin, while Jannik Sinner has really found a way to neutralise those return points and wear down De Minaur.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Jannik Sinner has broken in 23% of return games played in Rotterdam this week, but his numbers against Alex De Minaur have been at 38% in previous hard court matches. That can show up here as Sinner takes home another title in 2024 and continues to show that he is certainly up alongside Carlos Alcaraz as a potential multiple time Grand Slam Champion to take over from the Big Three era.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><u style="font-weight: bold;">MY PICKS</u>: Caroline Garcia - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Jannik Sinner - 4.5 Games @ 2.20 Coral (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><u style="font-weight: bold;">Weekly Update</u>: 9-9, - 2.40 Units (36 Units Staked, - 6.67% Yield)</span></div>Dav Aulakhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05567080212652977095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4672495653037673446.post-20893802911138005022024-02-17T00:37:00.005+00:002024-02-17T11:35:28.613+00:00Tennis Picks 2024 (Saturday 17th February)With just the Semi Finals to go at the ATP events being played and the WTA Doha Final to be played, there are much fewer options when it comes to the Tennis Picks on Saturday.<div><br /></div><div>The WTA Dubai main draw will begin on Sunday, so that is expected to be a busier day than usual alongside the conclusion of events in Delray Beach, Buenos Aires and Rotterdam.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>Before that you can read my Tennis Picks from the matches to be played on Saturday.</div><div><br />There was a temptation to back Elena Rybakina to beat Iga Swiatek, but it is not ideal for the former Wimbledon Champion to have had to play her Semi Final while the World Number 1 received a Bye through to the Final.</div><div><br /></div><div>Iga Swiatek has also enjoyed playing in the Middle East, especially here in Doha, and this is one of those matches to sit back and appreciate with two of the top WTA players going at it.</div><div><br /></div><div>Rotterdam has two Semi Final matches that also look tough to call with a slight lean on Grigor Dimitrov getting the better of Alex De Minaur for a second season in succession at the tournament.</div><div><br />Jannik Sinner should beat the home favourite, but Tallon Griekspoor has loved the conditions for his serve and it could be a more competitive Semi Final than some will expect.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>That means the focus will be on Buenos Aires and Delray Beach where four Semi Final matches are set to be played.</div><div><br /></div><div>Selections will be added to this thread when markets have been put together with Quarter Final matches played late into the evening in London.</div><div><br /></div><div>The totals for the week have been updated, and any Tennis Picks will be added here on Saturday.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Tommy Paul - 2.5 games </b>v Frances Tiafoe: This is the kind of situation that should motivate Frances Tiafoe- he has dropped below Tommy Paul in the World Rankings, but will be looking to remind the American public that he is still amongst the best players in the world.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">It has been a difficult six months for Frances Tiafoe and his 2024 season has not started nearly as he would have expected.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br />Last week he suffered a one-sided defeat to Marcos Giron and his performances remain a little sketchy.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Now he has to face the Dallas Champion and a player who is competing with real confidence in Tommy Paul. The World Number 14 has an edge in terms of the numbers being produced and a comfortable Quarter Final win should mean that the Second Round battle with Alex Michelsen is not going to be affecting him so much.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Tommy Paul has also won the last two matches against Frances Tiafoe and he can level up their series on the pro Tour. He is serving well enough to do that, but it is Paul's return game where he looks to have a real edge in this contest and that could see him get the better of an opponent who is still perhaps a little vulnerable mentally after some poor losses in recent months.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">It is a big spread that Frances Tiafoe could use to keep this close, but the play is backing Tommy Paul to do just enough on both sides of the court to show why he has moved past Tiafoe in the World Rankings.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Carlos Alcaraz - 4.5 games </b>v Nicolas Jarry: He has not been at his most convincing best, but Carlos Alcaraz is two wins away from defending the title he won in Buenos Aires in 2023.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">He can then move onto the ATP 500 event in Rio next week looking to go one better than last year as Carlos Alcaraz looks to keep his Rankings points high in his bid to return to World Number 1.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">There have been moments in this tournament where Alcaraz has just struggled to impose his tennis on the opponent as he would like and this is a tough looking Semi Final against Nicolas Jarry.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">They met in Rio last year and Carlos Alcaraz had to fight through two tough sets before pulling away in the decider, while Nicolas Jarry gave him plenty to think about at Wimbledon, a Grand Slam tournament that Alcaraz eventually went on to win.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Nicolas Jarry has a big serve and it is effective on the clay courts, but he was perhaps fortunate to benefit from a Tomas Martin Etcheverry retirement in the Quarter Final. That match looked to be swinging in the direction of the home player before a leg injury ended the contest at the end of the second set and Jarry will know he needs to be a lot better in this one.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Serving well will give him a chance, and getting as many first serves in play as possible will certainly be very important to the outcome of the match.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">However, the Jarry second serve has been attacked this week and Carlos Alcaraz is likely going to have success doing the same.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">The World Number 2 has been serving well enough to keep Nicolas Jarry under pressure too and he may have enough to cover what is a big spread for a best of three set match.</span></div><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><u style="font-weight: bold;">MY PICKS</u>: Tommy Paul - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Carlos Alcaraz - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><u style="font-weight: bold;">Weekly Update</u>: 8-8, - 2.40 Units (32 Units Staked, - 7.50% Yield)</span></div>Dav Aulakhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05567080212652977095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4672495653037673446.post-14996280245480784112024-02-16T14:33:00.002+00:002024-02-16T14:33:58.913+00:00Boxing Picks 2024- O'Shaquie Foster vs Abraham Nova (February 16th)It still grates that this should have been the weekend in which the Undisputed Heavyweight Championship of the World would have been decided.<div><br /></div><div>A cut, not one that I personally think was done deliberately, has just postponed matters until mid-May and that fight should go ahead with all of the financial penalties that have been set up around the bout.</div><div><br /></div><div>The postponement has left this weekend a little more open than most thought and that is why we have a couple of fight nights being shown on Friday rather than attempting to clash with the Tyson Fury-Oleksandr Usyk bout.</div><div><br /></div><div>One card will be taking place in the United States and one in Mexico and both are headlined by fighters or fights who truly gave the fans a lot to be excited about the last time they were out on the ring.</div><div><br /></div><div>A World Title is being defended in New York City and a big rematch will headline in Mexico.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>The previous couple of fight nights had not been very effective for the Boxing Picks, but last Saturday was much better thanks to Hamzah Sheeraz' big win over Liam Williams.</div><div><br /></div><div>It is a big performance that should have Sheeraz pushing on towards World level once Ramadan is over. The next step up is going to be crucial and Hamzah Sheeraz has given himself options by naming the likes of Chris Eubank Jr and Nathan Heaney as well as the current Middleweight World Champions in what is a weaker Division than we have been used to seeing in recent years.</div><div><br /></div><div>Others that impressed and will be looking to move forward are Masood Abdulah and Sam Noakes who had strong showings on the undercard in London.</div><div><br /></div><div>Frank Warren has to be happy and especially ahead of his Magnificent Seven card set for Birmingham in a month's time. It just shows that Queensberry are building up a solid roster of fighters, although the key for them, and Matchroom, is finding the next wave of stars that can lead British Boxing going forward.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibLNOvviLbZUMeQ5MC6v0JbuFmhYSOFM3M0K3n6XsunE5ird8ia4j6XMQ6wsdTGpChyU9NYugOfYXUI0Rfu4AxACdkTCDwHdE0NS7CLS_I29VYJXYCZH0JyTzXBqnkDA5L6RAQAatyLfZrEvqh2r3nhdnC7XA92tW6oQn4BXFc5g_jAfKlZUJOmtcbmx8U/s1200/FostervNova.webp" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="675" data-original-width="1200" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibLNOvviLbZUMeQ5MC6v0JbuFmhYSOFM3M0K3n6XsunE5ird8ia4j6XMQ6wsdTGpChyU9NYugOfYXUI0Rfu4AxACdkTCDwHdE0NS7CLS_I29VYJXYCZH0JyTzXBqnkDA5L6RAQAatyLfZrEvqh2r3nhdnC7XA92tW6oQn4BXFc5g_jAfKlZUJOmtcbmx8U/w400-h225/FostervNova.webp" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">O'Shaquie Foster vs Abraham Nova</span></b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">A late rally saw O'Shaquie Foster retain the World Titles in a really good fight against Rocky Hernandez- he was down in the cards, but Foster came out and earned the Stoppage with just 22 seconds left in that contest.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">It was a fight on a different platform, but the options to further the deal did not impress and O'Shaquie Foster is now in a multi-fight deal with Top Rank.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">First up on the current deal is the chance of O'Shaquie Foster to headline an event in New York City against Abraham Nova.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Unifications are likely to be next up for Foster, but he will know that he cannot overlook any opponent, while promoter Bob Arum will likely be encouraging the Champion to try and impress after some of the bigger names under his promotional banner have failed to do that in 2024.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Teofimo Lopez and Shakur Stevenson underperformed and they will say the same themselves, but O'Shaquie Foster has shown he can get on the front foot when he has needed to.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br />Whether that is going to be the case on Friday is another matter though- the feeling is that Foster can box and keep Abraham Nova at a relatively comfortable distance.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">However, there will be some who will point out the fact that Nova was Stopped by Robeisy Ramirez at a lower weight Division and O'Shaquie Foster should be much more comfortable at the Super Featherweight limit. He has shown he hits hard enough and the feeling is that Foster may feel he needs to do a bit more to make sure he is making positive headlines.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">I can see a situation where O'Shaquie Foster is very much in control of this fight and breaking down Abraham Nova.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">This should see him just feel a little more comfortable to turn the screw late on and backing O'Shaquie Foster to find a Stoppage in the second half of the bout looks a decent way to approach this one.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">The chief support on the undercard looks like it could be something of a firefight when <b>Andres Cortes </b>faces <b>Bryan Chevalier</b>.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">The latter comes in with a huge Knock Out record, but he was Stopped in the sole defeat suffered by either man.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Andres Cortes is the home fighter, but this is an opportunity to really try and steal the show and he has spoken about giving the fans what they would want to see.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Bryan Chevalier will be dangerous and will feel he can put a dent in Cortes, but the latter may find the bigger shots against someone who knows what it is like to be Stopped.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Over the last couple of days, there has been a definite surge of money trending towards the Champion and the fighter looking to repeat his success from the first bout.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Not many had given <b>Adrian Curiel</b> much of a chance of the upset, and even fewer would have predicted it would come in the manner it did. A highlight reel KO will always grab the headlines and Curiel turned the Jr Flyweight Division on its head.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">He has home advantage this time and the prices are vastly different compared to the first fight with Adrian Curiel hardening into a relatively strong favourite.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">However, <b>Sivenathi Nontshinga</b> has a chance to prove that the defeat was nothing more than a blip in his career.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">So much hype had been built around the South African who won the IBF World Title in Mexico in a Split Decision.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Winning here will not be easy, but revenge can be earned as long as Nontshinga avoids the kind of punch that ended the first fight. It really was a surprise when you think of the relative lack of KO success that Adrian Curiel has had in his career, while Sivenathi Nontshinga will feel he was in control of the tempo of the fight before things turned badly.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Seeing the drift in prices is a concern and earning a Decision here will not be easy, but a small price on the underdog is the play as Nontshinga looks to get his career back on track.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">The chief support in Mexico features the return of Bronco <b>Mauricio Lara</b> who feels a lot older than his 25 years of age.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">There is already a lot of miles on the clock thanks to tough bouts in the United Kingdom against Josh Warrington and Leigh Wood, while Lara lost his World Title on the scales before the Decision defeat to Wood.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">He has moved up to Super Featherweight and Mauricio Lara is making it clear that his career is far from over.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">It is unlikely that Daniel Lugo will be too hard to find and this is a considerable step up for the underdog, one that he tried to take before and was Stopped in a Sixth Round defeat.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Even with that in mind, this is the toughest fight that Lugo will have faced and Mauricio Lara can announce his return with a big, early win.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">There are some very interesting fights that can be made in this Division if Mauricio Lara can get back into the mix and that will be what he will be looking to do by stealing some of the headlines with a big performance.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><u style="font-weight: bold;">MY PICKS</u>: O'Shaquie Foster to Win Between 7-12 @ 4.33 Bet365 (1 Unit)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Andres Cortes to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 4.75 Bet365 (1 Unit)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Sivenathi Nontshinga @ 3.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Mauricio Lara to Win Between 1-5 @ 2.37 Sky Bet (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><u style="font-weight: bold;">Boxing 2024</u>: 8-11, + 6.56 Units (31 Units Staked, + 21.16% Yield)</span></div>Dav Aulakhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05567080212652977095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4672495653037673446.post-20306603120889754452024-02-16T02:05:00.006+00:002024-02-16T11:49:04.909+00:00Tennis Picks 2024 (Friday 16th February)<div>It is never that much fun watching a match where the fine edges move against the Tennis Picks and especially not in a season where it seems to be happening far more often than it should do.</div><div><br /></div><div>For example, on Thursday the two Picks from Doha ended up a combined six points fewer than their opponents, but both were beaten in straight sets.</div><div><br /></div><div>While that is frustrating, it does not help the mood to see the two other selections made win THIRTY more points, yet have to struggle to get over the line. This just sums up the early part of the 2024 season and it just feels like there is very little fortune landing on the side of the Picks.</div><div><br /></div><div>Bad Picks are not going to be ignored, but it is very strange to see so many dominating the numbers and still not being able to close the door on the matches as would be expected.</div><div><br /></div><div>Turning around this inconsistent week is still the main ambition to start moving back in a positive direction, but it has been a tough slog. Poor selections would actually be a situation that could be resolved, but it is much harder to find the changes needed when so many players have been a point or two away from doing what is expected of them, only to then blow matches by losing the big points time after time.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>Below you can see my early selections from the Quarter Final/Semi Final matches to be played at the four tournaments running this week.</div><div><br /></div><div>Any further Picks from Buenos Aires or Delray Beach will be added to the thread on Friday morning.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Marcos Giron - 3.5 games </b>v Patrick Kypson: It has been a positive time back in the United States for Marcos Giron who reached the Final in Dallas last week and has maintained strong form in Delray Beach.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">With big events to come up in Indian Wells and Miami, Marcos Giron has to be feeling very good about where his tennis is right now.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Facing up against Patrick Kypson will be a challenge considering the young American has won a Challenger event in Cleveland in early February and he has won two matches here in Delray Beach. Taking full advantage of his Wild Card, Patrick Kypson has won back to back matches in straight sets and he has a serve that can be very dangerous.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">The numbers have only slightly dipped when Patrick Kypson has faced top 100 Ranked opponents over the last twelve months and so this is a match that Marcos Giron has to take very seriously.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">However, the veteran in this match up has been playing at a really high level and that could be too much for Patrick Kypson to deal with over the length of time needed on the court.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">If he serves well, Patrick Kypson will pose a threat, but Marcos Giron has been in strong returning form over the last couple of weeks and may find the breaks he needs to cover this line.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Elena Rybakina - 4.5 games </b>v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: It has been a really strong run in the first two Middle East tournaments for Elena Rybakina and she is continuing to exert plenty of pressure on her opponents.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Serving as well as she has been, Elena Rybakina will be looking to keep that going against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">The latter has had a strong run in the tournament too, but has not been nearly as convincing in her performances- the fine margins are landing in Pavlyuchenkova's side of the court, but she is going to need more than that if she is going to upset the World Number 4.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">It is a big spread and especially if Pavlyuchenkova serves as well as she can.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">An aggressive style is dangerous if Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova is feeling her tennis, but you do have to feel that the match is going to be played on the Rybakina racquet.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Over the last couple of weeks, Elena Rybakina has not just been winning matches, but she has been winning matches really well and she can earn a measure of revenge for a French Open defeat to Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in May 2021.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Grigor Dimitrov - 4.5 games </b>v Alexander Shevchenko: He is 23 years old and heading back towards a career high World Ranking so the confidence will be in a pretty good place before Alexander Shevchenko thinks about what he will consider to be the best win of his career.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">The Second Round saw Shevchenko get the better of Holger Rune and he has shown solid resliency this week in Rotterdam by winning both matches as an underdog. Both have been won in a final set decider too and that will give Shevchenko the belief that he is never out of this Quarter Final.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">He is up against veteran Grigor Dimitrov who has enjoyed a very strong start to 2024.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Last week he came up short in the Marseille Final, but Dimitrov won a title last month and he has looked in pretty good nick in his two wins in Rotterdam.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">The serve is expected to be an important weapon after Alexander Shevchenko struggled with his returning consistency against Holger Rune.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">It is a big spread when you consider how Alexander Shevchenko has been serving in Rotterdam, but the scoreboard pressure could help Dimitrov reach yet another Semi Final on the Tour in 2024.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Tommy Paul - 1.5 games </b>v Jordan Thompson: The only addition from the remaining Quarter Finals in Delray Beach and Buenos Aires is this selection from the opening match in Florida.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Two players who have been enjoying playing the hard court events in the United States meet in this Quarter Final and both Jordan Thompson and Tommy Paul have to be feeling good about the tennis being played.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Tommy Paul won the title in Dallas last week and earned a Bye through to the Second Round in Delray Beach- his three hour win over Alex Michelsen may have sapped some of the energy, and that time spent on court is the one factor that has to reduce enthusiasm for the pick.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">He is also facing an opponent in Jordan Thompson who has been winning matches with a real level of comfort over the last two weeks, although the Australian may have benefited from the draws to some extent. Three of the four wins he has produced in Dallas and Delray Beach have been against opponents Ranked Number 149 or even lower down the Rankings, although the win over Dan Evans deserves some respect.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">It does mean Jordan Thompson is 4-4 in matches against top 100 Ranked opponents in 2024 and his return game remains a relative weakness that can be exploited by Tommy Paul as long as he is still holding some energy in reserve.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">The Thompson serve is a big weapon, but it did falter a couple of times in his defeat to Ben Shelton last week and Tommy Paul is a better return player compared with his compatriot. Of course he has played a lot more tennis than most in the last couple of weeks and that could show up, but Tommy Paul looks in a position to earn his first victory over Jordan Thompson on the Tour having lost their previous meeting on a grass court in the Netherlands.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Big serving should shorten the points and that should help Tommy Paul as he bids to reach another Semi Final on the United States hard courts.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><u style="font-weight: bold;">MY PICKS</u>: Marcos Giron - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Elena Rybakina - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Grigor Dimitrov - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Tommy Paul - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><u style="font-weight: bold;">Weekly Update</u>: 5-7, - 5.42 Units (24 Units Staked, - 22.58% Yield)</span></div>Dav Aulakhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05567080212652977095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4672495653037673446.post-71014542881725490472024-02-15T00:04:00.002+00:002024-02-15T16:13:39.693+00:00Tennis Picks 2024 (Thursday 15th February)The news about Rafael Nadal has to be considered a disappointment after he confirmed that he would not be healthy enough to play in Doha as he was hoping.<div><br /></div><div>There is still a desire to head to Indian Wells as he takes good care of his body and makes sure he is ready to compete when the clay court season rolls around in April. However, it only strengthens the feeling that this may be his last year on the Tour and that really begin the passing of the torch to the next generation, if we have not already begun to see that happening.</div><div><br /></div><div>Finding another Rafael Nadal is going to be as difficult as finding another Roger Federer or Novak Djokovic, but the likes of Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz can take the Tour forward. Both are already Grand Slam Champions and the hope amongst fans is that they can push each other to great heights in the years ahead.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>The WTA tournament in Doha has reached the Quarter Final Round and the three ATP tournaments are effectively a day behind with their own Quarter Final line up completed on Thursday and played on Friday.</div><div><br /></div><div>Like many Middle East tournaments, the Finals are played on Saturday rather than Sunday and that is the case in Doha and expected to be the case in Dubai when the WTA Tour pitches up there next.</div><div><br /></div><div>The ATP tournament in Doha will begin next week before the Dubai tournament is next up, although the names involved are perhaps not the elite list we have come to expect.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>Below are the selections from the Quarter Final matches to be played in Doha- nothing in Rotterdam appealed as the Second Round is concluded and any selections from Buenos Aires or Delray Beach from the Second Round matches to be played there on Thursday will be added on the day.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Danielle Collins - 1.5 games </b>v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: A tough First Round win in the Qualifiers aside, Danielle Collins has continued to play at a high level in Doha and she has four matches in a row in straight sets to reach the Quarter Final.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Despite the fast court conditions at the tournament, Danielle Collins will know she needs to be a bit more effective behind serve if she is going to move into the final four.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">No one should be too concerned about the performances behind the first serve, but Collins will not want to allow Anastasia Pavyluchenkova to have too many looks at the second serve. The aggressive American has been confident on the return in the tournament and it will be a match that Collins can feel she can win as long as she serves as she can.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova snapped a losing run to Marketa Vondrousova in the Third Round and will be looking to do the same in this Quarter Final. All three previous matches have ended in defeat against Danielle Collins and the Russian has not been effective enough on the return of serve.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">She will go for her big shots and that should mean some success for Pavlyuchenkova when she is able to set her feet, but the aggression of Danielle Collins means there will be plenty of pace coming her way too.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">The Russian player has been very good on the return in this tournament, but her own serve has not been working as well as it could and it is Danielle Collins who can progress.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Naomi Osaka - 1.5 games </b>v Karolina Pliskova: She may have benefited from a walkover in the Third Round, but Naomi Osaka has won back to back matches in Doha prior to that. This is the first time she has managed to do that in a hard court tournament since the Miami Masters back in March 2022, although of course Naomi Osaka has had a year out from competitive tennis.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">One of the few matches played in 2024 was against Karolina Pliskova and Naomi Osaka was beaten in a very tight, competitive match.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">She will be hoping to turn that result around as she did against Caroline Garcia and there has to be an accumulated fatigue in play working against Pliskova.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">After winning the title in Cluj on Sunday, Karolina Pliskova was playing in Doha on Monday and she has won a match on each of the last three days to reach another Quarter Final. Confidence will have been given a real boost by the fight and quality of tennis she has produced, but Karolina Pliskova has spent over six hours on the court and has had to come from a set down twice.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">She should have been beaten in the Third Round, but Linda Noskova struggled to put away her compatriot when serving for the match. That can happen to younger players trying to beat a veteran from the same country, but Karolina Pliskova is facing someone who is motivated to show they belong back with the elite on the WTA Tour and someone who will want to earn a measure of revenge for a tight defeat.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Take nothing away from the run Karolina Pliskova is on, but it is tough to sustain the wins when playing on the tight margins. The second serve is likely going to be attacked by Naomi Osaka and it may be tough for Pliskova to really get a good feeling in the return.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">It could be tight again with Osaka still getting up to speed, but she should be the physically fresher player and that may show up in this Quarter Final.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Carlos Alcaraz - 5.5 games </b>v Camilo Ugo Carabelli: The Australian Open ended a little prematurely as far as Carlos Alcaraz would be concerned, but he has decided to take in the South American Golden Swing for a second year in a row.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">He had a very successful time in South America twelve months ago and Carlos Alcaraz will be defending his title in Buenos Aires.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">The move from the hard courts to the clay courts should not be a massive issue for someone like Alcaraz, but he will have to deal with a home player in the Second Round. Camilo Ugo Carabelli has won a Challenger title on the clay and is very much at home on the red dirt, while he has come through the Qualifiers and won a First Round match in Buenos Aires.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">This will mean Carabelli is well adjusted to the conditions and he will have to try and use that to his advantage against one of the best players on the Tour.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">He has won two matches against top 100 Ranked opponents in this tournament, although the margins were slim, and it is a big ask for Camilo Ugo Carabelli to raise his level for long enough to beat someone like Carlos Alcaraz.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">The Spaniard is likely going to put the Carabelli serve under pressure throughout this Second Round match and he should have the qualities to find the breaks of serve to cover this relatively wide handicap mark.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Sebastian Baez - 1.5 games </b>v Luciano Darderi: His toughest win in Cordoba was against Sebastian Baez, but Luciano Darderi was able to work his way past the World Number 30 and eventually won the title.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">He earned a Special Entry into the Buenos Aires event and Darderi was a crushing winner in the First Round to keep the positive momentum going.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">That title win last week has pushed Luciano Darderi into a new career high World Ranking mark and the confidence is clearly not going to be an issue for him.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Sebastian Baez will be playing with revenge on his mind- he beat Darderi in Cordoba in 2023 before losing in the Quarter Final last week. The First Round win was comfortable to earn a rematch with the Italian and Sebastian Baez will feel a stronger start should put him in a position to turn the result around.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">The serve let him down last week, but Sebastian Baez should be the slightly fresher player in this Second Round match and he is capable of better than what he showed in the loss. Putting that together here and perhaps being a little more clinical on the Break Points will turn the result around and he can get the better of Luciano Darderi, even at this confident stage of his career.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><u style="font-weight: bold;">MY PICKS</u>: Danielle Collins - 1.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Naomi Osaka - 1.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Carlos Alcaraz - 5.5 Games @ 1.75 Coral (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Sebastian Baez - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Coral (2 Units)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><u style="font-weight: bold;">Weekly Update</u>: 3-5, - 4.52 Units (16 Units Staked, - 28.25% Yield)</span></div>Dav Aulakhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05567080212652977095noreply@blogger.com0