After the Wimbledon Final and the rematch in the Masters Final in Cincinnati, fans will be salivating over the prospect of seeing Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz meet in a little under two weeks time for another Grand Slam title.
Unsurprisingly the two top men's players in the world are short odds to win the US Open compared with the rest of the field- while both Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz are priced at single digits, you can get double digit odds for any other player in the field.
The odds suggest it will be a straight fight between the two players that have won the last five Grand Slam titles, but there are players in the field that will be looking to quietly go about their business. Daniil Medvedev won the US Open in 2021 and is clearly at his best on the hard courts, while players like Jannik Sinner and Taylor Fritz will be looking for deep runs.
We have seen some surprising runs at the US Open in the past with players like Juan Martin Del Potro, Marin Cilic and Dominic Thiem previous winners here since 2009. However, it does feel like a tournament that is either going to be won by Djokovic or Alcaraz and may just depend on which of those two players can hold themselves together at tough moments over the next two weeks.
Out of the two, the defending Champion Carlos Alcaraz certainly looks to have a tougher path through to the Final, but it will be a case of fingers crossed that we get to see the Final that most would be asking for.
Both Alcaraz and Djokovic are priced up shorter than the women's favourite at the US Open and that just underlines the competitiveness at the top of the WTA draw at Flushing Meadows.
Iga Swiatek is the defending Champion, the Number 1 Seed and the favourite, but it does feel like a number of other names will be confident of taking that title home.
Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina are obvious contenders, while the American audiences, and the home organisers, will be looking forward in seeing how far Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff can progress over this fortnight.
The good news for WTA fans is that the draw is loaded with some talent and it should mean an exciting final Slam of the season all around and that is what the sport needs. And that will especially be the case if one of those top names wins the title and continue strengthening the top of the women's game.
Taylor Fritz - 6.5 games v Steve Johnson: Most American tennis fans would consider the women's Singles event being played at the US Open as being the one that is more likely to produce a first home Champion since Sloane Stephens won the title in New York City in 2017.
There are a couple of top ten Seeds representng the United States in the men's draw too, but it is hard to look past the two names who have won the last five Grand Slam titles played.
Taylor Fritz and Frances Tiafoe will both get their US Open challenges underway on Monday as Day 1 of the tournament begins, but it is only the latter of those two names who has had a really good run here before. That came last year when Frances Tiafoe reached the Semi Final at the US Open, but it has been much harder work for Taylor Fritz.
He may be the World Number 9 and he may have reached as high as World Number 5, but Taylor Fritz has yet to have the kind of consistent impact at Grand Slam level that his World Ranking would suggest. A Quarter Final run at Wimbledon in 2022 is the best it has been for Taylor Fritz, but it is almost hard to believe that he has only reached the second week of one other Grand Slam whwn making the Australian Open Fourth Round in 2021.
Simply put it is not good enough.
Facing veteran Steve Johnson in this First Round match gives Taylor Fritz a chance to get his teeth into the tournament, but there will be some mental demons to exorcise considering the poor record he holds at his home Grand Slam. In three of the last four years, Fritz has failed to even make it through to the Third Round, but his preparation during this US hard court swing has been decent enough.
It also helps that he is facing Steve Johnson who has slipped well outside the top 100 in the World Rankings and who has begun to play the majority of his tennis at Challenger level to rebuild some confidence. That has worked to some extent with some solid runs in hard court events, but over the last twelve months, Steve Johnson has a 0-7 record when facing top 100 Ranked players on the surface.
The serve can give Steve Johnson a chance, but he has really been struggling on the return in those matches and that has perhaps contributed to declining numbers behind his best shot.
It will also help Taylor Fritz in being familiar with this opponent having won the last three matches between them, while also winning three of four previous hard court matches.
My concern in backing Taylor Fritz when it comes to spreads of this margin is that he does not have a very strong return game and giving up serve a couple of times makes it difficult for him to recover. However, the Steve Johnson game is not as strong as when these two last met in 2021 and Taylor Fritz has continued to develop, albeit we have yet to see the outcome of the work being put in when it comes to Grand Slam results.
One tie-breaker is almost to be expected, but Fritz can just wear down the veteran over the course of a couple of hours on the court and that should see him cover this line narrowly.
Alexander Bublik - 2.5 games v Dominic Thiem: Three years ago Dominic Thiem realised a dream when picking up his Grand Slam title at the US Open having fought back from two sets down to edge out Alexander Zverev in an epic Final.
The hope for the Austrian is that it isn't going to be the top of the mountain as far as his career goes as injuries have restricted Dominic Thiem over the last couple of years. It is a big reason the former Champion is now down at World Number 82 and preparation for the tournament has been far from ideal considering this is the first hard court match Thiem will be playing since March at the Miami Masters.
One or two signs have been seen that Dominic Thiem might be finding a way to get back towards his best, but those have largely been on the clay courts and this is a different test. Some have suggested the courts at the US Open are not playing as fast as previously, but Dominic Thiem has lost his last seven hard court matches, including all six played in 2023.
He is up against one of the Seeded players, but it might be argued that Alexander Bublik is one of the weaker of those Seeds in the draw. This is clearly a talented player, but Bublik has not found a lot of consistency on the hard courts and his approach to his tennis is perhaps a touch too care-free.
Losses to Gael Monfils and Hubert Hurkacz has meant Alexander Bublik has not won a match on the hard courts in the lead up to the US Open, while he was eliminated in the First Round at the Australian Open, Putting that together and you can perhaps understand why Bublik is not a dominant favourite in this match, although it does feel like one in which he should find a way to earn the victory.
Serving well will be the key, especially as Dominic Thiem is still finding his feet back on the hard courts. This year, Thiem has only held 66% of his hard court service games and he was comfortably beaten by Andrey Rublev at the Australian Open in their First Round meeting in Melbourne back in January.
Neither of these players will be pointing to strong return numbers on the hard courts in 2023, but Alexander Bublik does look like he may have an edge when it comes to the serving numbers. That could make all the difference in their second professional match against one another and the feeling is that having a few more hard court matches under his belt over the last month can help Alexander Bublik to a good looking win against the former Champion.
Casper Ruud - 6.5 games v Emilio Nava: Make no mistake, the general hard court performances of Casper Ruud have been noted this year and it is very difficult to make a case for the World Number 5 to have anything like the run he enjoyed at the US Open last year.
However, he has reached three Grand Slam Finals since June 2022 and it is clear that Casper Ruud is finding a way to peak and bring his best form when the big tournaments roll around.
The time between Wimbledon and the US Open has not been nearly as effectively used by Casper Ruud as we have seen in the past and the relatively early losses in Masters events in Canada and Cincinnati will have not done much for the confidence of the player. The summer clay court events helped, but Casper Ruud is just 6-8 on the hard courts in 2023 and there may be a few calling for a First Round upset.
Despite the form, it is still tough to believe that Ruud does not have the quality of tennis to beat young American Emilio Nava, even if the latter has put three wins on the board at the US Open in coming through the Qualifiers. Emilio Nava will head into the main draw with a new career best World Ranking number next to his name, while an upset will see him open this section of the draw and potentially help Nava produce a surprising run.
However, the majority of Emilio Nava's time is still spent away from the main ATP Tour and this is a considerable step up in level of competition that he is used to facing. He does not possess an overwhelming serve and Emilio Nava has broken in just 17% of return games played on the surface before the US Open Qualifiers begun.
It is also very difficult to ignore the fact that Emilio Nava is just 2-11 in hard court matches played against top 100 Ranked opponents in his career. Respect is given for the fact that Nava has taken sets from quality players like Lorenzo Musetti and Andy Murray at the US Open, but he ended up well beaten in both of those matches and Casper Ruud is capable of going through the gears when he does get on top of opponents.
Emilio Nava has really struggled to deal with the return of serve against the top 100 opponents played on the hard courts and while he has shown some signs of improving his own service numbers, it may still not be enough to make up for the returning side of his tennis.
Casper Ruud can be a little erratic early in Grand Slam tournaments, but he has won his last five First Round matches at the Australian and US Open tournaments combined. In the four completed wins in that run (one was a retirement with Ruud fully in control), the Norwegian would have covered this handicap mark twice and missed another by a single game.
The home player will likely keep the first couple of sets competitive, but eventually Casper Ruud's qualities should shine through as the 2022 Runner Up gets his tournament underway.
Sebastian Korda - 1.5 sets v Marton Fucsovics: An ankle injury picked up just a few days ago is far from ideal for Sebastian Korda as he prepares to play at the US Open as one of the Seeded players.
He withdrew from the tournament in Winston Salem with the complaint and would have preferred to have been in the top half of the draw in New York City if only to have earned an extra day of rest and recovery.
Sebastian Korda has long been considered a player with a huge amount of potential, but at 23 years old we have yet to see him produce the consistency needed. This is a tough First Round match too if he is feeling the ankle, but you have to believe that he withdrew from Winston Salem as a precaution and he should be ready to compete.
He will need to be ready having seen how tough Marton Fucsovics can be in a match played against each other last week- Sebastian Korda prevailed, but it was a tight match with very little in the margins and so the American is going to need to be close to full fitness in order to get the better of Fucsovics again.
That won't be easy against a solid enough hard court player and Marton Fucsovics has been known to produce an upset or two at Grand Slam level. There is little doubt he will be playing with confidence, but Sebastian Korda has a bit more pop out of the first serve and ultimately that could make the difference in this First Round contest.
You would worry about Korda's chances of progressing if he needs to enter a fifth set, but he is capable of edging the margins to a three or four set victory.
Coco Gauff - 5.5 games v Laura Siegemund: Unsurprisingly the Day 1 Night Session will feature one of the top names in American tennis and a genuine contender to win the US Open title.
Coco Gauff has long been considered someone who will win multiple Grand Slam titles having burst onto the scene as a teenager, but winning the big Masters event in Cincinnati has only increased the level of expectation around her. That is the biggest title that Coco Gauff has won and moved her into World Number 6 and there will be some pressure walking out onto Arthur Ashe to begin this final Grand Slam of 2023.
However, Coco Gauff has long understood the pressures and she has shown a decent temperament in being able to handle that.
She will be tested by Laura Siegemund, even though the veteran is now outside the top 100 in the World Rankings and seven years since reaching her peak career high World Ranking. Winning three Qualifiers will give Laura Siegemund confidence, while she will understand that there is nothing to lose when playing in front of an expectant home crowd.
Trying to battle and make Coco Gauff work for everything will be the plan, but the American has won all thirteen matches against players outside of the top 50 on the hard courts in 2023. That improves to winning all eighteen matches in that situation over the last twelve months and Coco Gauff is a much better player than when she lost the sole previous match between these two players.
Her numbers in the eighteen match wins over players outside of the top 50 makes strong reading and the feeling is that Coco Gauff can come out and make an early statement to the rest of the field.
MY PICKS: Taylor Fritz - 6.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Alexander Bublik - 2.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Casper Ruud - 6.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)
Sebastian Korda - 1.5 Sets @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)
Coco Gauff - 5.5 Games @ 1.70 Bet Victor (2 Units)
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