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Friday, 25 August 2023

Boxing Picks 2023- Oleksandr Usyk vs Daniel Dubois (August 26th)

In a year in which we have seen Undisputed Champions crowned in some of the lower weight classes, the Heavyweight Division has slowly begun to click into gear.

We might not be getting the Undisputed fight that all Boxing fans would have been hoping for, but Anthony Joshua has been out twice and this week we have three of the four World Titles being defended in Poland when Oleksandr Usyk takes on Daniel Dubois.

It might not be the fight that the fans would have wanted, but clears a mandatory out of the way before we hopefully have another shot at making the Undisputed fight. Frank Warren and Queensberry promotions would be very happy with a Dubois win on Saturday as that would become a very easy in-house Undisputed fight to make against Tyson Fury and likely would land in a big Stadium in the United Kingdom, but an Usyk win will likely lead to more negotiations and the hopes from all parties that Saudi Arabia are willing to put in the big bucks that both fighters will be demanding.

That might not be a situation that is cleared up until Tyson Fury has his crossover fight against Francis Ngannou in late October, but hopefully there will be more positive news from Anthony Joshua and Deontay Wilder, who have been speaking about a fight of their own in Saudi Arabia.

In saying all of that, it is a real shame that the Heavyweights are as inactive as they have been (outside of Anthony Joshua) and I am not just talking about the big four names.

Andy Ruiz Jr is Ranked as high as Number 2 in a couple of the organisations and has not fought since September 2022, Daniel Dubois fights this weekend for the first time since December, Filip Hrgovic was back a couple of weekends ago for the first time in a year, while Frank Sanchez has fought a single Round since October 2022.

This is hugely frustrating to fans of the sport and the only hope is that we will get better news in the second half of the year, although it does feel the lure of a big payday in Saudi Arabia has too many sitting down and waiting to see if the offers come in.


At least prospect Jared Anderson is back quickly after a tougher than expected test against former Champion Charles Martin, but more out of the big men is needed just to give the sport another injection of headlines.


Despite the lack of activity in the Heavyweight Division, the second 'half' of 2023 looks to be very, very exciting with some huge fights scheduled and others set to make their way onto dates that have been left over. This can only be a positive for Boxing fans in what has been arguably one of the best full years in the sport for a long time.

Next weekend the United Kingdom fans will be looking forward to Liam Smith vs Chris Eubank II to open the month which will be concluded in a huge fight between Canelo Alvarez and Jermell Charlo for all of the gold in the Super Middleweight Division. There are plenty of good fights in between, notably the rematch between Zhilei Zhang and Joe Joyce and it is another loaded schedule for fans of the sport.



Oleksandr Usyk vs Daniel Dubois

There is a quiet confidence on the Daniel Dubois side of the road ahead of this World Heavyweight Title fight- his promoters, trainers and the boxer himself feel this is their time for an upset over an undefeated Champion.

That does give you some pause for thought, but it is still hard to imagine Daniel Dubois will have enough at this stage of his career to beat someone as good as Oleksandr Usyk.

The Champion is considerably older than Daniel Dubois, but Oleksandr Usyk has beaten a lot of quality fighters in moving to 20-0 and the way he bamboozled Anthony Joshua twice certainly has many believing the Ukrainian is the best fighter in the Division. Of course we will only know that for sure if Usyk and Tyson Fury are able to finally meet for all of the gold, but the three Belt holder has to make sure he is not thinking too far ahead.

It could be argued that Oleksandr Usyk is facing the biggest puncher he has ever been in the ring with and Daniel Dubois is naturally a bigger man. The British fighter has shown he can hurt most of the fighters he has been in the ring with and Daniel Dubois knows he needs to be able to let his hands go if he is going to have any chance.

He has admitted that it is unlikely he can out-box the Champion and win this on the cards, and Dubois is expected to be a little more sure with his tactics compared with Anthony Joshua who many feel overthought the way to approach any fight with Usyk. Personally it feels like Dubois will be blinkered as to his game plan and he should come forward and look to hurt Usyk anywhere he can hit him.

The footwork of the Champion is going to be key, while you do have to wonder how Daniel Dubois will deal with some of the punches that will be coming back at him. The eye injury against Joe Joyce is hard to forget, but Oleksandr Usyk probably does not hit as hard as The Juggernaut, although accuracy won't be an issue for Usyk at all.

More worrying has to be the way Kevin Lerena was able to put Daniel Dubois down three times in the First Round in the latter's last fight in December 2022. He did suffer an ACL injury in that fight and Dubois did rally, but he was perhaps given more opportunities to recover being the home fighter that day and the South African southpaw had not shown much form to believe he would have the power to floor someone like Dubois when coming up from Cruiserweight.

Oleksandr Usyk is a superior southpaw compared with Lerena, although he has not been a Stoppage merchant moving into Heavyweight. He clearly hits hard having rocked Derek Chisora and Anthony Joshua, but Usyk has admitted that he is not someone that will go chasing a Knock Out if it is not there.

The question in this one is whether Daniel Dubois will really go for broke in the first Six Rounds as he looks for the upset.

If he does and Oleksandr Usyk is able to weather any early storm, the Ukrainian can go through the gears and he is likely going to gas out Daniel Dubois and 'drown him' in the second half of the fight. It does mean the lean is with a late Stoppage in favour of the defending Champion, although there is every chance that Daniel Dubois will see a run to the cards as a win and may end up being a lot more cautious.

We have seen Usyk just do enough to win fights and not look to finish opponents, but this feels like a fight in which he can show that he is a capable finisher in this Division. Daniel Dubois might just begin to feel the pace after four or five Rounds and Oleksandr Usyk has the capability of just turning it on and forcing the ref to step in at some point around the Ninth Round.


Another British fighter is out in Poland looking to get the better of a Ukrainian opponent, but Hamzah Sheeraz is a favourite against Dmytro Mytrofanov.

Both are unbeaten, but Mytrofanov is much older and has not really taken on any opponent of note. He is naturally smaller than Hamzah Sheeraz, while a single fight since December 2021 is hardly ideal preparation.

Since a controversial win over Bradley Skeete, Hamzah Sheeraz decided to move up to Middleweight and has produced three dominant wins in the new Division. He has been out of the ring since November 2022, which is never ideal for a developing fighter, but he has broken into the top 10 in the Rankings of a couple of the organisation bodies, while Sheeraz looks more comfortable at the weight class.

Ukrainian fighters are tough, but over Twelve Rounds you would have to expect Sheeraz to find one or two openings in which he can make the kind of impact to see avoid having to win on the cards on the road.


Over in the United States, young prospect Jared Anderson is back in action a little over six weeks since being pushed to the cards for the first time in his career by Charles Martin. The former Heavyweight Champion gave Anderson plenty to think about, but that could prove to be valuable lesson for the next great American Heavyweight.

This is another test against a veteran for Anderson who faces Andrii Rudenko, although the Ukrainian looks to have had his best days. At 39 years old, Rudenko has only had one fight since being Stopped for the first time in December 2021 and you do have to wonder if he has enough in the tank to keep a power hitter like Jared Anderson at bay.

Andrii Rudenko has taken guys like Lucas Browne, Hughie Fury, Alexander Povetkin and Zhilei Zhang the distance, but the last of those fights was back in 2019. He is much older now and Jared Anderson might show what he learned from the Charles Martin fight by winning this one in the first half of the fight as he continues closing in on the top five of the World Rankings in a couple of the organisations.


Jared Anderson only ended up fighting Charles Martin because Zhan Kossobutskiy had visa issues heading to the United States. The unbeaten Heavyweight is able to head across this weekend though and Top Rank have perhaps decided that the Kazakh and Anderson can meet with more on the line in 2024.

The build for that fight can begin as soon as this weekend if Kossobutskiy can beat Efe Ajagba, a fighter who had built a decent reputation before losing to Frank Sanchez.

He has won two in a row since then, but Zhan Kossobutskiy has a big reputation building and some have compared him with Gennady Golovkin, albeit at a much higher weight class.

This could be a big hitting Heavyweight contest, but there looked to be some vulnerabilities in Ajagba in his loss to Frank Sanchez. The feeling was that Sanchez could have closed the show with a bit more desire to do so, and that is likely to be an approach Zhan Kossobutskiy will take as he sets himself in a position to face Jared Anderson down the line.

MY PICKS: Oleksandr Usyk to Win Between 7-12 @ 3.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Hamzah Sheeraz to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Jared Anderson to Win Between 1-5 @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Zhan Kossobutskiy to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 2.62 Coral (2 Units)

Boxing Update 2023: 36-69, - 26.02 Units (196 Units Staked, - 13.28% Yield)

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