ATP World Tour Finals Tennis Day 4 Picks 2019 (November 13th)

In something of a surprise, the first Semi Finalist at the ATP World Tour Finals is Dominic Thiem who has recorded wins over Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic in the first couple of matches at the O2 Arena in London.

The performances from Thiem have been very impressive as he has held himself together during pivotal moments in those matches and that also means we have an effective Quarter Final on Thursday when Djokovic plays Federer who beat Matteo Berrettini on Tuesday.


We move onto Wednesday when another Semi Finalist could be confirmed, while the second of eight players might find out their time in London is coming to an end after the final Group match. A couple of big matches take place over the course of the day and they look difficult to call on first viewing.

However I do have selections from the matches which can be read below.


Daniil Medvedev - 1.5 games v Rafael Nadal: After both players were beaten in their opening Group matches at the ATP World Tour Finals there really isn't much room for error for either Daniil Medvedev and Rafael Nadal. The former was in spectacular form going into his debut at the Tour Finals, but Medvedev will be disappointed in the level produced as he was beaten by Stefanos Tsitsipas for the first time on the pro Tour.

Losing in straight sets does make things a little more awkward, but Medvedev will know that winning his last two matches should still be good enough to earn a path through to the Semi Final. He will be concentrating on his own performance rather than worrying about the permutations that can develop at the end of the Group Round, but the best bet for Medvedev will be to try and win both matches remaining in straight sets.

It certainly won't be easy as he is comes up against Rafael Nadal who has beaten Medvedev in two Finals on the hard courts in the last three months. One of those was at the Canadian Masters, but the more memorable one was the US Open Final as Medvedev came from two sets down to eventually fall in five against the veteran from Spain.

Factors are slightly different this time around with the clear proof that Rafael Nadal is not at 100% and some will even question whether he will take to the court in this one. Finishing as the year end World Number 1 is a huge achievement for any player and a big motivation for Nadal, but the Davis Cup Final is being hosted by Madrid and begins on Monday which may mean the Spaniard is not keen to push himself through the rest of this tournament if he does need a few more days to rest.

Rafael Nadal admitted he needed more time to work on his serve having still felt plenty of pain when looking to do that. He had only begun serving at the end of last week and it was clear in the loss to Alexander Zverev that Nadal did not have a lot of pop off that shot and that is going to make it very difficult to win matches on the indoor hard court we have in London.

There is no doubt that Daniil Medvedev was not playing at the level he has shown over the last few weeks in his first match here. He did not return half as well as you would expect, but I think the young Russian might have a much better chance if Nadal is still at half-speed in this one and his own serve was strong enough to believe Medvedev is rightly favoured here.

The two previous matches between these players saw Nadal deserve to win both and he was largely in control. However that was a Nadal playing at a much healthier state and I think that is going to be a factor in this one as Medvedev reignites his own bid while virtually ending Rafael Nadal's chances of finishing World Number 1.


Stefanos Tsitsipas v Alexander Zverev: Any time a player breaks a long losing run to another it is going to be a tough place to bounce back from with the emotion that would have been invested into the win. I think you can double down on that when you think of the rivalry between Stefanos Tsitsipas and Daniil Medvedev with very little love lost between the players and the former will have been very pleased with the victory he secured.

It will all be for nothing if Tsitsipas is not able to work his way out of the Group with that win in his first match of three to be played. He will be facing the other Day 2 winner when going up against Alexander Zverev who beat Rafael Nadal for the first time and won't be worrying too much about the obvious discomfort the World Number 2 has been dealing with prior to the tournament.

After a very disappointing 2019 season Alexander Zverev came into the ATP World Tour Finals as one of the outsiders even though he is the defending Champion here. Quite a statistic is the fact that Zverev has beaten Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal in his last three matches played at the O2 Arena in London, although it is all about backing up the success from Monday.

The last thing Zverev will really want is a potential shoot out with Daniil Medvedev, one of the 'Next Gen' of youngsters who might have overtaken the German. For a long time it was suggested that Zverev would be the new face that could break up the dominance of the Big Three in men's tennis, but both Tsitsipas and Medvedev might be more likely to become the first of the younger players to win a Grand Slam title.

Both have actually been further in the Majors than Zverev and both also have decent records against the German player. Stefanos Tsitsipas has won the last three between these players and that includes beating him in straight sets in Beijing in early October and it was a surprise to see the Greek player producing the stronger returning on the day.

One of the main reasons Alexander Zverev has not had a great time on the hard courts in 2019 compared with 2018 is that his serve has let him down. He is only holding in 81% of service games played, which is a poor number and significantly down on 2018, and I do think that could hold him back as he looks to defend the title won last season. Stefanos Tsitsipas is up at 87% in the same category and the Greek player has earned more break points in the two matches against Alexander Zverev in 2019 and has won both of those.

Only one of those was on the hard courts, but I am surprised that this match has been set as a pick 'em contest. I think there is enough to like about Stefanos Tsitsipas to believe he can back up the win earned on Monday and I will back him to win this match.

MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)

ATP Finals Update: 3-3, - 1.48 Units (12 Units Staked, - 12.33% Yield)