I had a really positive Tuesday, but the last couple of days have been very disappointing for the Tennis Picks and had a big impact against the totals at the Canada Masters.
We are down to the Quarter Final Round at both the ATP Toronto and WTA Montreal events this week and I have am looking to make some better selections to get this week turned back around.
Anastasija Sevastova + 3.5 games v Sloane Stephens: These two players have met on the hard courts twice before with both of those matches coming last year at the US Open and in the WTA Elite Tournament to finish off the season. There is no doubt that that Sloane Stephens and Anastasija Sevastova have been well matched in both matches and the latter may feel a little aggrieved that she didn't win both matches.
The match at the US Open was one I attended last year and it was a brilliant Quarter Final with very little between the players on the day. Sloane Stephens edged things and went on to win the US Open but Sevastova is clearly a player that enjoys the rhythm she gets from the American and this has all the makings of another close and competitive match.
I will say that it is hard to oppose Stephens once she gets a couple of wins under her belt. Over the last twelve months Stephens has had some very early exits in events but she has been really difficult to stop once her confidence is up from a couple of wins and that is why she has reached two Grand Slam Finals in that time as well as winning one of those.
The hard courts are clearly a surface Stephens is very comfortable on having also won the big title in Miami earlier in 2018, but Sevastova is no slouch on this surface.
Sevastova may not have shown the same level of consistency as Stephens nor has she had the stand out results like the American. However her numbers have been very good on the hard courts and she returns well enough to put Stephens under some real pressure, while Sevastova has been in good form so far in Montreal having put three wins together.
I won't deny that Stephens has the slightly stronger numbers across the board on this surface, but this looks a lot of games to be giving to Sevastova and I will back the underdog with the start.
Simona Halep - 3.5 games v Caroline Garcia: Winning the French Open title was the culmination of a long search Simona Halep to hold a Grand Slam title and we have seen other players struggle with the weight lifted of their shoulders. Some of the other girls who have won their maiden Grand Slam title in recent years have struggled in the immediate aftermath of dealing with the new level of fame, but Simona Halep looks like someone who wants to add to the French Open title as soon as possible.
The hard courts have always been a surface on which Halep has been able to perform well, although the speedier surface does mean that opponents have more of a chance to hit through her on these courts.
Halep has shown some very strong consistency on the hard courts in the last few seasons, but there have been signs of improvement in 2018. That makes Halep one of the favourites to win the US Open which begins at the end of the month and the Romanian has shown plenty of mental strength to win two matches on the same day to move through to the Quarter Final in Montreal.
This may be a big challenge for her despite dominating the head to head with Caroline Garcia. The Frenchwoman is coming off a very impressive win over Maria Sharapova but she has to show she can compete with Halep having lost four of the five previous matches against the World Number 1 and perhaps being a little fortunate to even win one of those matches.
It is the returning numbers on the hard courts which have prevented Garcia from having more success on this surface and that has to be a concern in this match up. As good as Garcia can be behind serve, she is facing an opponent in Halep who is winning almost 50% of points against the serve on the hard courts and so Garcia's return game is going to be really tested.
Halep has served pretty effectively considering this is not considered a strength for her and I do think she is going to have a little too much for Garcia. It could be a closer match than some of their previous matches because Halep had to play back to back matches on Thursday and could have some fatigue issues, but the World Number 1 hasn't played a lot of tennis in recent weeks and so I am going to back her to cover in a win over Garcia in this Quarter Final.
Elina Svitolina - 3.5 games v Elise Mertens: These two players met in the Australian Open Quarter Final and it was Elise Mertens who crushed Elina Svitolina for the loss of just four games.
However it has been much tougher for Mertens on the hard courts since that impressive run to the Semi Final at the Australian Open. The last couple of weeks have perhaps seen things turn around for the Belgian having had some good wins in San Jose before her run here in Montreal.
However the numbers have not been so impressive from Mertens and she will have to be significantly better than in recent matches to take on someone like Svitolina. The latter has not had the kind of season that many expected from her but Svitolina has won a couple of hard court titles and is clearly going to be amongst the favourites to win the US Open.
Much will do with how she can prepare mentally for the big events and Svitolina can be a little up and down in her play at the business end of tournaments. The rain in Montreal hasn't affected her though and her overall numbers have been solid enough to think she can get a measure of revenge over Mertens who has not been able to sustain the level she was producing in Melbourne back in January.
I don't think this is going to be an easy match for Svitolina at all and there will be some momentum shifts with both players capable of breaking the other. However I think Svitolina is the better hard court player and she can beat Mertens and cover this number.
Alexander Zverev - 3.5 games v Stefanos Tsitsipas: Both Alexander Zverev and Stefanos Tsitsipas were in impressive form on Thursday as they won their Third Round matches over Daniil Medvedev and Novak Djokovic respectively. After meeting one another in the Washington Semi Final last week, the players face each other once again when they play in the Toronto Quarter Final this week.
You have to be impressed with the development of Tsitsipas who has taken some of his clay court form onto the hard courts this summer. He has already beaten two top ten players in Toronto this week and the numbers have backed up how well Tsitsipas has been playing with deserved dominant wins.
The serve is the key for Tsitsipas and he is yet to be broken in the tournament this week. Tsitsipas has won over 70% of the points played on his serve over the last two tournaments and holding 90% of his games shows the kind of challenge that opponents are facing, although you can't ignore the fact that Alexander Zverev is the player who had a lot of success against him last week in Washington.
In that match Zverev broke the Tsitsipas three times having created seven break points and it can't be ignored that the younger player in this match has had his struggles when it comes to the return of serve.
He now has to face the Zverev serve which has been even stronger than the one Tsitsipas has been producing and that is despite the hugely impressive numbers the Greek player has. Zverev has not faced a break point in his last four matches and he is very much on course for a Washington/Canada double for the second season in a row if he can maintain what has been some incredibly strong numbers since moving back to the hard courts.
The German has won a slightly higher percentage of points behind serve than Tsitsipas but the big difference between the players is the strong returning Zverev has produced. Since the start of the Washington tournament Zverev is breaking 35% of the times he has returned serve and he is winning almost 44% of the points against the opponent's serve.
Zverev won 45% of the points against Tsitsipas' impressive serve last week in Washington and I think he franks that form by beating him and covering again.
MY PICKS: Anastasija Sevastova + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 10-11, - 3.46 Units (42 Units Staked, - 8.24% Yield)
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