We are now just days away from the start of the main draw at the US Open and so this remains a big week for players to get some much needed wins under them.
The WTA event in New Haven featured more players who could go very deep into the draw in New York, but injury and illness have seen some of those now go into the final Grand Slam with some questions to answer.
The ATP event in Winston Salem always felt a very good chance for players to touch up their game and pick up some vital Ranking points ahead of the next Grand Slam. Generally these weeks can be tough to read with players perhaps not as focused as they could be knowing the final Grand Slam of the season is almost set to get underway, but now we have reached the Quarter Final stage of both events you would hope that everyone involved will want to pick up the title and head to New York with some momentum.
Weather permitting there will be at least one day of rest for any players reaching the Final this week before they play their First Round match in New York and so I am confident that the focus will be there for all the players involved on Thursday.
I've only had two Tennis Picks this week because it can be tough to back anyone with a lot of confidence in the final week before a Grand Slam begins. So far it has been a decent return with both of those Picks coming back as winners, but I've made good starts the last couple of weeks and faltered down the stretch which is what I am looking to avoid this week to build some momentum for the US Open.
Petra Kvitova - 4.5 games v Carla Suarez Navarro: Matches between these players have been very close over the years with both Petra Kvitova and Carla Suarez Navarro winning five of the ten matches played. They have shared wins on the hard courts despite this being a favoured surface of Kvitova, but that is much to do with the fact that the aggressive Kvitova can be frustrated by the defence of the Spaniard which leads to a lot of errors.
There has been some slippage of the Suarez Navarro return game this year on the hard courts and I do think that will have given the edge to the higher Ranked player.
The Kvitova serve remains a big weapon for the Czech player, but she can still be very inconsistent and there are times when she will go through a number of games making error after error. That is where Suarez Navarro is going to want to take Kvitova, but the decline in the returning numbers is a big problem for the Spaniard and a huge factor in her relatively poor 14-9 record on the hard courts.
One area of significance in this match is how Kvitova is feeling on the return of serve. While her numbers are decent enough, I do think Kvitova can be let down by this part of her game and she has to make sure she puts Suarez Navarro under the kind of pressure Sloane Stephens did when the American beat her comfortably in Montreal.
You don't always know what you are going to get with Kvitova, but I do think she is the kind of player who will either blow away Suarez Navarro or struggle in a surprise defeat. Recent form suggests there have been more good moments from Kvitova and I think she can edge out Suarez Navarro in a straight sets win which should see her have enough break point chances to cover the number.
Kyle Edmund - 2.5 games v Steve Johnson: In 2017 Kyle Edmund deservedly got the better of Steve Johnson both here in Winston Salem and also at the US Open and I think the British player can frank that with another win in this Quarter Final. Edmund did drop the first set when they met here at the same stage in Winston Salem in 2017, but he has won the next five sets against Johnson and he has played well enough on the hard courts to get past the home favourite again.
You can't completely ignore the poor record Edmund has had on the hard courts since reaching the Australian Open Semi Final back in January. The struggles at Indian Wells and Miami continued over the last month, but Edmund has produced two strong wins in the Winston Salem tournament which may have restored some of the confidence.
Edmund has been a little unfortunate in a couple of losses where there was very little between him and his opponent, while his serve has been effective enough to think he can keep the pressure on Johnson. There has been an improvement in the Johnson return game which has to be respected, but he struggled to deal with the Edmund serve last year and the forehand to forehand battle is likely to be won by the British player off the ground.
A key for Johnson is going to be getting more out of the serve which remains a big weapon for him. The percentage of points won behind serve on the hard courts have declined over the last four seasons, but Johnson still has a decent enough number to hold between 82% and 86% of games per season in that time. That is a huge number, but Edmund did play very well against Johnson in their two hard court matches twelve months ago and I think he can do the same here against a player who had lost all three hard court matches played over the last month before putting two wins together here in Winston Salem.
I have to respect the fact that their numbers are very similar on the hard courts in 2018, but those two wins Edmund earned last year have to be a factor here. Neither player has faced a tougher opponent than the one standing across the other side of the net on Thursday, but Edmund looks to be on the stronger form all around and I will back him to beat Johnson for a third straight time and also to cover this number.
Pablo Carreno Busta v Hyeon Chung: The higher Ranked player is the underdog in this match and I can see why that would be the case, but I think the prices have shifted to a point where Pablo Carreno Busta can be backed to move through to the Semi Final.
Hyeon Chung is most definitely on a path up the World Rankings and he has the potential to be a Grand Slam winner. This season he has made the Australian Open Semi Final and backed that up with a couple of solid runs at Indian Wells and Miami, but the consistency has not quite been there over the last month on the return to the hard courts.
Part of the issue has been the recent return from injury for Chung and he has come through his two matches in Winston Salem in tight matches. The numbers during the last month have just not quite reached the overall numbers produced in 2018 on this surface and Chung is holding at less than 80% while his return game has really struggled.
You would think he could get back on track against someone like Pablo Carreno Busta whose serve is perhaps one of the weaker ones in the top 50 of the World Rankings. However that is more a perception than a reality with Carreno Busta who has reached the Semi Final at the US Open in 2017 and the same stage in Miami earlier in 2018.
Carreno Busta played well in Cincinnati last week too and his 15-6 hard court record in 2018 is a very good one. On the serve the Spaniard is holding almost 85% of his service games which is significantly better than what he has produced in previous years on the hard courts, although I do wonder if it is a level he can maintain.
However you can add those numbers to the decent return ones and Carreno Busta has every chance of the upset against an opponent who has not found his best tennis consistently over the last month. The Spaniard has played well this past week but has to lift his game a little more to win a match like this one.
I do think it is going to be a close one regardless and it could come down to one or two points in the final set to determine who is able to move through to the Semi Final. With that in mind, there looks to be a real disparity in the odds and I will back the underdog in a two horse race who has played the slightly better tennis on this surface in the last few weeks.
MY PICKS: Petra Kvitova - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kyle Edmund - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Pablo Carreno Busta @ 2.37 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-0, + 4.20 Units (4 Units Staked, + 105% Yield)
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