It was a solid if not spectacular start to the US Open for the Tennis Picks, but it was also a day which underlined why I did not make any Outright Picks from this event.
The fourth Grand Slam of the season always seems to bring a real physical challenge to the players with the conditions in New York forcing players to pull out of matches and also struggle during the course of matches.
That is something to consider and I am not getting involved in too many of the early matches in the women's draw simply because there are some serious doubts about the fitness of some of the top names. Simona Halep exited the event on Monday and a number of other big name players will take to the court with some fitness doubts on Tuesday and so I am only picking one match from the women's event being run in New York and the conclusion of the First Round on Tuesday.
I have a number of Picks on Tuesday, but I will only have the full analysis for a number of them. You can read all of the First Round Picks from Tuesday below.
Leonardo Mayer - 6.5 games v Laslo Djere: Some of the handicaps at these Grand Slam events look very wide and so it can be a challenge in determining where they should land. This one looks right on the money as far as I am concerned, but I still give Leonardo Mayer enough of an edge to work his way into a position to cover what is a big spread even in a best of five set match.
There isn't much in the way of recent form that would offer a lot of encouragement in backing Mayer in this First Round match, but he has proven to be significantly better on the hard courts than Laslo Djere. You could almost put this pick down to wanting to oppose Djere rather than having a lot of faith in Mayer, but the latter has been good enough to expect him to cover this number.
Mayer has strong holding numbers which should keep the pressure on Djere who has really struggled with his return game on the hard courts. The Serb is 1-6 in main ATP matches on the hard courts in 2018 and he has a very low 10% break percentage which is going to make it tough to break the Mayer serve even if the latter can be someone who can go walkabout mentally within a match.
Djere has shown to be at his most comfortable on the clay courts and his service numbers on the hard courts have not been the most impressive. He has won just under 62% of points behind his serve on this surface and you would have to think Mayer will have his opportunities to break this serve and really take control of this match.
As long as Mayer is able to stay in this match mentally I do think he will win fairly comfortably. The Djere results on the hard courts have shown a player who does suffer multiple breaks of serve on this surface and even if one of the sets go to a tie-breaker I still believe Mayer is superior to Djere on the hard courts and he can show that by producing a fairly routine win in the First Round.
Marin Cilic-Marius Copil over 32.5 games: Marin Cilic is a former US Open Champion and he will be a dark horse to win the title in New York having already reached the Final at the Australian Open back in January. He had a surprisingly poor Wimbledon, but Cilic has looked very comfortable on the hard courts over the last month with a Quarter Final run in Toronto ended by Rafael Nadal and a Semi Final run in Cincinnati ended by Novak Djokovic.
Both of those players went on to win the titles at those tournaments so Cilic is clearly in good nick and even more so when you consider the defeats came in three sets. The one concern for Cilic going forward is whether he will have the mental strength to win those tough matches if he faces them at the US Open, but the Croatian looks like he could be a threat here in New York.
One area in which Cilic will want to improve is his return of serve and winning the big points on that side of his game. While he is winning more points percentage wise on the return, the break percentage is some way down on 2017 and Cilic is going to be tested by his opponent Marius Copil who has played well on the hard courts.
Copil has a very big serve and he has used that to very good effect on the hard courts with 70% of points won behind that shot. That has meant a lot of holds of serve, but I do worry that the conditions may not be ideal for the Romanian in this match with the courts playing a little slower than some of the other hard courts you will see on the Tour.
He hasn't played badly over the last month on the hard courts as he has pushed both Andy Murray and Marin Cilic to deciding sets. If Copil serves well he could at least give Cilic something to think about in this First Round match, especially if Cilic continues to have some issues with converting his returns into breaks of serve.
The layers do think Cilic wins this one a little more comfortably than I believe he will. While I do think Cilic is very likely to move through to the Second Round, I would not be surprised if we need to see a couple of tie-breakers in this one, while Copil has actually returned with a little more success than you would think which will give him a chance to steal a set.
In either of those cases this may look a total games line which is on the short side and I will back the two players to surpass that number.
Alexander Zverev - 7.5 games v Peter Polansky: Novak Djokovic made a bit of tennis history by becoming the first player to win every Masters event that is played when taking the title home in Cincinnati. Peter Polansky has had his name written in the history books for a different 'success' when he was given a Lucky Loser spot into the main draw of the US Open and becoming the first player to receive such a spot in every Grand Slam that is played.
While the Canadian was happy to joke about his 'achievement', Polansky won't enter this match expecting to lose but instead play with a 'nothing to lose' attitude which could make him a danger. Ultimately he should be familiar with the conditions in New York having played three Qualifiers ahead of the start of the main draw and that has to be factored into the match.
Alexander Zverev looked to be in good form in Washington having won the title there again, but the young German will be disappointed by his Toronto and Cincinnati showing. His overall record in Grand Slams is also very disappointing for a player who is Ranked as highly as Zverev and considering the clear potential he has to become one of the leading names on the ATP Tour in the years ahead.
It would still be a huge surprise if Zverev is beaten by Polansky in this First Round match though and the numbers back that up. Zverev has been very impressive behind serve and on the return on the hard courts in 2018 and his game on this surface has taken a huge step up from 2017 too.
The general Polansky numbers on the hard courts have been good to read too, but you can't ignore the majority of his matches are not played on the main ATP Tour. When you consider those numbers alone there is a significant step back from the Canadian and the return of serve has really suffered which puts a lot of pressure on Polansky to find his best serving days.
Polansky's serve is one that has to be respected though and it is on rare occasions he is embarrassed on a tennis court. He was beaten comfortably by Novak Djokovic in Toronto but even then it was Polansky's serve that kept him in touch with the former World Number 1 in his 6-3, 6-4 defeat. I wouldn't be surprised if Zverev takes the first couple of sets by the same margin, but I think the pressure of his return of serve tells in this match and he can pull away and cover this big number in a likely straight sets win.
Jiri Vesely - 1.5 sets v Corentin Moutet: This is a First Round match that both Jiri Vesely and Corentin Moutet have to be very contented with as they will feel it represents a very strong chance to pick up some vital Ranking points. Neither player has really made a decision to take in some hard court matches to build the confidence ahead of the US Open with just a single match between them being played on this surface over the last month.
Neither player has played more than ten matches on the hard courts in 2018 and both Vesely and Moutet have a losing record on the surface.
However it can't be ignored that the majority of Vesely's matches have come in main ATP Tour events compared with his opponent who has spent more time in Challenger and Qualifying events. With that in mind you would expect Moutet has the stronger hard court numbers having competed at a lower level than Vesely, but surprisingly that has not been the case and so I do like the Czech player to progress.
This is only the second time Moutet will have played a match at ATP main Tour level on the hard courts and so seeing his 68% hold percentage on the hard courts looks a very disappointing number. That could give a limited returner like Vesely a chance to have more success on that side of his game than he usually enjoys and it should make a big difference for a player who has a very strong 85% hold percentage on the hard courts in 2018.
Confidence is something that is hard to really pick in this match with neither player at their very best on the hard courts and potentially not enjoying the surface as much as others. That is arguably the biggest threat to Vesely's chances of making it through to the Second Round in this tournament, but I think he is the better player on the hard courts and can show that.
If Vesely serves as he can, I think Moutet will be put under immense pressure on the scoreboard and I like the Czech player to get this done in three or four sets.
Alex De Minaur - 1.5 sets v Taro Daniel: This is another First Round match in which both players competing have to have a full belief in their ability to move through to the Second Round. Both Alex De Minaur and Taro Daniel have had strong runs on the hard courts over the last month, but also struggled to keep the consistency at a level where they can produce those runs at a number of different tournaments.
There isn't a lot of difference between the numbers that both players have produced on this surface, although De Minaur's are slightly superior to Daniel's.
While I am favouring De Minaur will have enough to win this match it also feels there are going to be some twists and turns in the match. Both De Minaur and Daniel have very similar numbers when it comes to the return of serve both in terms of percentage of points won and also break percentages and that suggests there will be a number of breaks of serve in this one.
That feeling is only backed up by the fact that both players are not the most dominant behind serve although that is where De Minaur holds a significant advantage over Daniel as far as I am concerned. The Australian has held serve at close to 80% of the time on the hard courts compared with Daniel who is below 74% and that is where the slight margins in this match can be made.
Daniel has had some big wins on the hard courts and he did reach the Semi Final in Winston Salem last week which will have given him some confidence. Even with that in mind I can see Daniel has slightly weaker numbers in terms of percentage of service points and return points won in 2018 compared with 2017 and I believe De Minaur will work his way to a three or four set win.
Caroline Garcia v Johanna Konta: It hasn't been that long since both Caroline Garcia and Johanna Konta were top 20 Ranked players, but the British player has had a difficult 2018. That has seen her slip down the World Rankings to a point where she has not been Seeded at the US Open and thus been given a tough First Round assignment that neither player would have wanted.
It is quite easily the best looking match in the First Round of the women's draw and I think the layers are finding it difficult to split the players because of the erratic nature of both.
On the face of things I would have given the edge to Johanna Konta who has some decent hard court numbers but who has suffered some unfortunate losses. However there is a real feeling that Konta may not be completely healthy going into the tournament in New York and that is where Garcia could edge out an opponent who has proved to be very closely matched to the Frenchwoman from their previous meetings.
The health issues could be the factor that swings things towards Garcia even though she has not been at her best in the last couple of weeks on the hard courts. A decent run in Montreal has been followed by disappointing ones in Cincinnati and New Haven, but Garcia has a serve that can match Konta's and I do think her overall form over the last month looks superior to the British player's form.
Konta has proved to be a decent returner on the hard courts, but her service numbers are slightly down on 2017 and I do think Garcia can get the better of her. I have been a critic of Garcia's return game as that is the main reason she has not been able to make a big impact at Grand Slams in the past, but she did beat Konta on the hard courts in 2017 when the latter was playing at a higher level than she is producing at the moment.
Don't be surprised if a deciding set is required, but the conditions in New York are very tough if someone is not feeling at 100% and I think that factors into the Johanna Konta defeat in the First Round.
MY PICKS: Leonardo Mayer - 6.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marin Cilic-Marius Copil Over 32.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 7.5 Games @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Jiri Vesely - 1.5 Sets @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alex De Minaur - 1.5 Sets @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Caroline Garcia @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 6.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Pablo Carreno Busta - 7.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
David Goffin - 8.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Benoit Paire - 1.5 Sets @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
US Open Update: 4-2, + 3.28 Units (12 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)
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