Cincinnati Masters Tennis Picks 2018 (August 16th)

This week has been a little up and down for the Tennis Picks and Wednesday was no different after seeing two picks return as winners and two head to the loser's enclosure.

It was a little frustrating as Kei Nishikori blew a 4-1 lead in the first set to lose seven games in a row against Stan Wawrinka and he never recovered from that moment. Angelique Kerber also had a number of opportunities to really take control of her Second Round match before missing the cover by one game so I have to be a little disappointed.

However it is still a winning week as we have reached the Third Round.

On Thursday there look to be a number of options to play after what has been a relatively quiet first three days from the Cincinnati Tennis Picks. The rain could be a real factor though and I would not be surprised if many of these Third Round matches are held over until Friday when the winners will have to play a Third Round and Quarter Final on the same day,

That's not something that will concern me too much just yet, but the tournament organisers would love to get into a position to get this event back on track as there are already some Second Round matches that have to be completed. The forecast is not great for the Thursday, but these are my Third Round Picks.


Pablo Carreno Busta - 1.5 games v Robin Haase: With a game like the one that Robin Haase possesses I think I would have expected him to have had some stronger results on the hard courts than he has had in his career. There have been some very strong runs in tournaments which have to be respected, but the consistency can be lacking with the majority of problems coming from a return game which is no better than average.

This could be a period of seeing the good Haase playing on the hard courts as he has backed up a decent week in Toronto by making it through to the Third Round in Cincinnati. Haase reached the Quarter Final last week and he has already beaten Alexander Zverev here in Cincinnati which has to give the Dutchman some real belief he can make a move up the World Rankings.

The run here may have come as a surprise to the fans, but Haase may have surprised himself too having previously lost his only two other matches played at this tournament. He was perhaps a little fortunate to beat Zverev, but you need that bit of luck as the lower Ranked player against someone as strong as the German and so Haase should come into this Third Round match with some real confidence.

It is a very tough match up for Haase who has lost both previous matches against Pablo Carreno Busta, although both were on the clay courts and they haven't played each other in recent years. Carreno Busta has played well enough to win his first two matches here, but he hasn't always felt at his best on what could be considered some of the quickest hard courts on the Tour.

I do think Haase has the bigger serve in this match, but the wet conditions may make it a little easier for Carreno Busta to get his superior return game working. The Spaniard has actually been serving just effectively enough to win matches on the hard courts and his numbers have been far better than in previous years on this surface.

If he can maintain the standards that have helped him reach the US Open Semi Final in 2017 and also the Semi Final at the Miami Masters I do give Carreno Busta the edge in this match. It can be hard to trust the Spaniard with a serve that can quickly capitulate in a single set, but I think he has been in decent enough form and is returning well enough to get the better of Haase as the latter looks to back up one of his better wins of the season.

It wouldn't be a massive surprise if we need three sets to separate the players in this Third Round match, but I give the edge to Carreno Busta and think he returns well enough to cover this number.


Marin Cilic - 2.5 games v Karen Khachanov: If you like your tennis full of big serving and heavy groundstrokes from the baseline then this Third Round match is going to be for you. Both Karen Khachanov and Marin Cilic will look to produce big first serves which will allow them to dictate rallies behind strong forehands and I don't think this will be a long match simply as both players should be able to run through some service games with a 'wham-bam' style of play.

Marin Cilic will always be a popular dark horse to win the big titles on the hard courts with his game tailor made for this surface. He has a big serve and is a decent returner, while the former US Open Champion reached the Final at the Australian Open earlier in 2018 to prove he can go deep into Grand Slams across the world.

Last week was a little disappointing from Cilic's point of view with the Quarter Final exit from the Canadian Masters coming in a tough luck situation against Rafael Nadal. Have no doubt that Cilic will feel he missed a big opportunity to beat the World Number 1, but the overall performance has to put him in a good position to have a deep run in Cincinnati and the US Open which begins in less than two weeks.

Cilic has significantly improved his serving numbers on the hard courts in 2018 compared with 2017 and that has been a key to some of his successes. The break percentage is down, but he has won a higher percentage of return points which suggests he has been a little unfortunate on that side of his game and could have another strong run in him.

There will have to be a healthy respect for Karen Khachanov who reached the Semi Final in Toronto last week before going down to Rafael Nadal. This has been a decent year on the hard courts for the young Russian and he has backed up that run with two wins in the main draw in Cincinnati and confidence has to be coursing through Khachanov at the moment.

Khachanov has a very impressive serve which makes him a dangerous opponent especially on this court in Cincinnati. However the reason he has yet to really make a significant impact on the Tour is the return game which has proven to be an issue when he has stepped up to take on some of the better players on the Tour.

It does feel like that will be the case here and that is where I think Cilic has enough of an edge to come through this Third Round match. There will be times the Croatian may get frustrated as he does have some difficulties to get into the Khachanov service games and he will have to avoid throwing away a loose service game in that situation. If Cilic can do that I think he will get his chances against the Khachanov serve and I will back the top ten player to win this match and cover the number.


Kevin Anderson - 2.5 games v David Goffin: It has been very interesting to see the development of Kevin Anderson in recent years and the hard work he has put in has been rewarded with his best tennis being played in the last couple of years. The South African was a US Open Finalist in 2017 so he does have some big points to defend in the next month to keep his World Ranking as high as it is, but you have to give Anderson a lot of credit for continuing to produce a consistent brand of tennis.

Anderson is always going to be dangerous on the hard courts with the serve he has and the conditions in Cincinnati may only aid him that much more. He has also improved his return game in the last couple of years on this surface which has helped Anderson in producing his best results in his career, although no one will confuse the top ten player with the top returners on the Tour.

However that side of his game is also aided by the very strong serving displays which does put pressure on opponents to hold onto their own serve. On Thursday it will be David Goffin who tries to do that having had a tough couple of weeks on the hard courts despite some decent numbers in 2018.

There is no doubting the quality Goffin brings to the court and he will be a big favourite to win any rally in this match that develops to more than five hits. The serve has perhaps been a little more vulnerable in the last couple of weeks than Goffin would have liked and that has to be a concern when going up against someone like Anderson who will feel he can take some free shots on the return if his own serve is working well.

Much of the outcome of this match will depend if Goffin can bring his strong returning numbers into this one. I am not that convinced it will be the case having really struggled against the likes of Stefanos Tsitsipas in Washington and Milos Raonic in Toronto. Kevin Anderson is a superior server to both of those players at the moment and I think the South African will be able to exert some scoreboard pressure to win this match and crack the David Goffin serve to cover this number.


Novak Djokovic - 3.5 games v Grigor Dimitrov: After dropping the first set against Adrian Mannarino Novak Djokovic was able to get back on track with two dominant sets to move through to the Third Round. There was some concern about a stomach illness that Djokovic was suffering through but he will have some time to prepare for this match while any rain could be a blessing in disguise for the former World Number 1.

Having an extra day of rest would be huge for Djokovic but it perhaps is even more of an issue for Grigor Dimitrov.

The Bulgarian has a poor record against Novak Djokovic and he was beaten very easily by Djokovic on the grass courts of Queens Club back in June. His best opportunity to turn around a poor run of losses to Djokovic may be facing a potentially ill opponent but that says a lot about where Dimitrov stands as far as I am concerned.

2018 has been a relatively poor season for Dimitrov considering he came into this year off winning the ATP Finals. It has not been a bad year on the hard courts in terms of the wins he has generated, but Dimitrov has really struggled on the return side of things which is going to make it tough to beat some of the best players on the Tour.

Those numbers have been really poor when it comes to playing top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts and on all surfaces in 2018. Dimitrov may have struggled on the return even more than in general, but the bigger concern has to be how far his own serve numbers drop off and Djokovic is certainly good enough to take advantage of that.

You can't ignore the fact that Djokovic's numbers have declined in each of the last four years on the hard courts from 2015 to 2018. His service numbers in whole are down while he is breaking less in each year, although I do like the fact he has won a higher percentage of return points compared with 2017 which suggests the break percentage is due to improve.

The illness is a slight concern, but Djokovic could have plenty of time to get ready for this match and I will back the Wimbledon Champion to get the better of this opponent again and cover what looks a big number on first glance.


Lesia Tsurenko v Ekaterina Makarova: One of the main concerns about Lesia Tsurenko is the health side of things as she has had her problems in 2018. She had to retire from a match in Montreal just last week, but that hasn't stopped Tsurenko from winning back to back matches in Cincinnati and against some quality opponents too.

If she can stay healthy Tsurenko is certainly capable of having a very good run on the hard courts through the remainder of 2018 and her numbers have been decent enough this season. The wins over Danielle Collins and Garbine Muguruza are very impressive, while Tsurenko was able to get the better of Ekaterina Makarova when they last met on the Tour.

The Russian knows all about injury problems having been plagued with them over the last couple of years. Makarova has a poor 8-9 record on the hard courts in 2018 and that has been improved by her two wins here in Cincinnati, while her second serve has been one that Tsurenko will look to attack.

Tsurenko has been much better than that on the hard courts too with an 18-9 record in 2018 and it is her return game which has really impressed. While both players will feel they are comfortable on the hard courts, the numbers stack up slightly more favourably for Tsurenko which makes it hard to see her as the underdog in this one barring an injury flaring up again.

Her numbers have been superior to Makarova's on the hard courts and I will back Tsurenko to work her way through to the Quarter Final.


Caroline Garcia - 2.5 games v Aryna Sabalenka: So many people have tipped up Caroline Garcia for some big things on the WTA Tour but she seems to have hit something of a wall in her move up the World Rankings. All credit has to be given to any player who has reached the top ten of the World Rankings so you can't take that away from the Frenchwoman, but Garcia has to show that she is now capable of winning the very biggest of events on the Tour.

One Quarter Final at Grand Slam level is not really good enough for a player of Garcia's ability, but she looks like she could be entering the US Open with some good form behind her. Last week she reached the Quarter Final in Montreal and a strong win over Victoria Azarenka means Garcia is playing for a second Quarter Final spot in consecutive weeks on Thursday.

I don't think you can ignore that there is room for improvement from Garcia to take the next positive step in her career. Her return game on the hard courts have not reached the level of some of the very best players on the WTA Tour and it puts a lot of pressure on Garcia to serve at a very high level to remain competitive in those matches.

The serve has been a decent weapon for Garcia, but this is a tough match for her against the improving Aryna Sabalenka. This is the second good week in a row for Sabalenka at the very high Premier Event level and the wins over Johanna Konta and Karolina Pliskova shows this player is operating at a very good level.

It makes her very dangerous for Garcia especially when you think Sabalenka has been serving effectively on the hard courts and against a returner like Garcia it should be a big weapon for her. However Sabalenka has had two tough matches here and I do wonder if fatigue could be an issue for her against a strong server like Garcia.

That is one of the main reasons I am opposing Sabalenka here having needed three sets to beat two tough opponents. She will need to dig deep in this one too and Garcia has tended to perform at a higher level when she has faced opponents Ranked outside the top 20.

Garcia's numbers are improved across the board in those matches and I think she can win this match in three sets which should still give her a chance to cover the number.


Angelique Kerber - 3.5 games v Madison Keys: You would imagine the hard courts would give Madison Keys a real edge in her matches with Angelique Kerber, but this has proven to be a very tough match up for the American. It is Kerber who has won seven of the eight previous matches between these players and the German has won all six matches they have played on the hard courts including at the Australian Open in January.

The Kerber numbers on the hard courts have also been superior to Madison Keys and the only concern for the Wimbledon Champion is the long Second Round match she had against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova.

The conditions in Cincinnati may be a positive for Keys if she can get her big first serve working and then follow that up with big groundstrokes before Kerber can set up in her defensive stance. That's some pressure though and Keys could quickly lose hope in what has been a poor match up for her.

It is the Kerber return game which gives her a significant edge in this match and I do think she will be a little too good for Keys. This is a big number to cover when you consider the long match played by Kerber on Wednesday as well as the quicker hard court in Cincinnati, but the German has not dropped a set against Keys in the last four matches between them and would have covered this number each time.

I will back her to do the same here although this is a match that could be held over until Friday.


Sloane Stephens - 3.5 games v Elise Mertens: The last couple of weeks have seen Elise Mertens produce some strong hard court results for the first time since very early in 2018 when she reached the Australian Open Semi Final. However I do think Mertens has ridden her luck at times in matches and she is going to have to be a lot better if she wants to beat a player of the quality of Sloane Stephens.

The American looks to be rounding into very strong form for the US Open and she has been blowing away opponents over the last ten days.

When Stephens gets into this kind of roll she can be very tough to stop and it took all of the skill of the current World Number 1 Simona Halep to beat Stephens in the Montreal Final on Sunday. That hasn't dented the confidence of Stephens who was a dominant Second Round winner in Cincinnati and she has the overall game to control this match with Mertens.

Defensively Stephens can match the consistency of Mertens from the back of the court, but I think the American gets a little more out of her serve and that is key here. Both players will have a lot of success on the return of serve with the way they play, but having a few more opportunities to get out of tough games will give Stephens the edge to win this match.

This is another match that may need to be held over, but I like Stephens to win the match with her superior hard court play and I will back to cover too.

MY PICKS: Pablo Carreno Busta - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Kevin Anderson - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Lesia Tsurenko @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Caroline Garcia - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Sloane Stephens - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)

Cincinnati Update: 6-4, + 4.56 Units (20 Units Staked, + 22.80% Yield)