It has been a frustrating week so far for the Tennis Picks and one that has not been helped by some very poor luck at key times.
That was the case on Friday as Alexander Zverev somehow was beaten by Stefanos Tsitsipas despite serving for the match, having match point at another point, having a break lead in the third set and missing multiple break points throughout the contest.
Zverev himself was not impressed at all with Tsitsipas in his post-match press conference and I can't blame him as he dominated the youngster but couldn't quite get the job done.
Now we are down to the Semi Final matches at both the ATP Toronto and WTA Montreal events while the majority of players on the Tour would have moved on to Cincinnati where the last big tournament before the US Open is played. The matches in Cincinnati will actually begin on Sunday with First Round ATP Masters matches scheduled to get underway and Roger Federer will also be back on the Tour making his final preparations ahead of the final Grand Slam of the season.
Hopefully we can end the Canadian Masters with a few winners to at least get back into a positive, but it has been a difficult week and there is no telling if I will have the little bit of luck I need to put some wins together.
Kevin Anderson - 2.5 games v Stefanos Tsitsipas: You have to credit Stefanos Tsitsipas for the tennis he has been playing on the hard courts in Washington and Toronto, but a little bit of luck can also go a long way. I am still not entirely sure how he managed to beat Alexander Zverev when you look at all of the chances the latter had to win the match and the numbers have backed that up.
However it is not wise to sleep on how well Tsitsipas has begun to play on the hard courts even if we do see some room for improvement. The return game was just good enough to hang with Zverev in the Quarter Final, but overall it is perhaps not quite at the level the future top tenner will be expecting of himself.
The challenge will be to try and get into the Kevin Anderson service games as the big South African continues to enjoy his best tennis of his career as he has gotten older. Anderson is in the midst of another career year and there are plenty of points to defend at the US Open which means any strong run in the two Masters events can ease some of the pressure on Anderson.
It is no surprise a player with the serve that Anderson possesses is very comfortable on the hard courts and he is going to be tough to break down. He should be fresh having played first on Friday and crushing Grigor Dimitrov very quickly, while fatigue issues could come into play for Tsitsipas who has had to dig deep in back to back matches to edge past Novak Djokovic and Zverev.
The Anderson return of serve is not one you would want to rely upon to cover big numbers, but he can do just enough to earn at least one more break of serve than his young opponent. He is almost breaking in one in five games on the hard courts this season but his actual return numbers are slightly better than last season which suggests Anderson could improve on that break percentage and I like him to beat what has to be a tired opponent.
Rafael Nadal - 4.5 games v Karen Khachanov: It was a tough evening for Rafael Nadal in his Quarter Final win over Marin Cilic, but he showed enough of his fighting quality to edge out the Croatian over three sets. Marin Cilic is a tough opponent and the level of competition does come down a little bit when Nadal faces Karen Khachanov in the Masters Semi Final on Saturday.
I am a big fan of the young Russian, but the Khachanov run to the Semi Final here has come out of left field when you think how poorly he had played on the hard courts since winning an indoor title in Marseille. An early defeat in Washington last week underlined the level of performance Khachanov had been producing, but it has been a different story this week in Toronto.
Wins over Pablo Carreno Busta and John Isner have been particularly eye-opening, but Khachanov will have to overcome some mental challenges in this one against the best player he will have faced this week.
Rafael Nadal has won all three previous matches against Khachanov and to say he has dominated would be an understatement. All seven sets played have been won by Nadal and the majority of those have been very strong wins for the Spaniard who has been able to have a lot of success on the return of serve against one of Khachanov's big weapons.
The return game of the youngster is not quite up to the level to match the elite of the ATP Tour and that has been shown up in his matches and defeats to Nadal. This week has been much better for Khachanov when it comes to the return game, but this is going to be a much tougher task to break down the Nadal service game and I favour the World Number 1 to get through this Semi Final with some room to spare.
He hasn't been at his best this week so far, but Nadal has room to improve form the level he has displayed. The strong mental strength has helped him past Stan Wawrinka and Marin Cilic but Nadal has played well enough too and I think he will be far too good for Khachanov. Maybe the Russian can make this a closer match than he has in the past against Nadal, but I am not convinced and I will back the Spaniard to come through with a win and a cover.
MY PICKS: Kevin Anderson - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 12-13, - 4.16 Units (50 Units Staked, - 8.32% Yield)
No comments:
Post a Comment