The key to this week is going to be maintaining the strong days and not succumbing to a poor one to drag back the positive numbers.
Once again a strong day has given me a chance to do that, but I had a poor end to last week and so there is some pressure to keep the momentum going after a 6-1 day which has boosted the numbers for the week.
On Wednesday we move into the remainder of the Second Round matches at the ATP Toronto event and begin that in WTA Montreal in what is a busy week. With back to back Masters events scheduled it means the tournaments this week have to make sure they stay on schedule through the poor weather and that means the Rounds are not split up as they would be usual weeks on the Tour and instead all of the Second Round/Third Round etc are played on the same day.
Pablo Carreno Busta v Karen Khachanov: This looks a fascinating Second Round match between two players who both are pretty comfortable on the hard courts. Most would assume Karen Khachanov is the better hard court player compared with Pablo Carreno Busta who likely does prefer the clay courts, but the Spaniard has been very good on the surface over the last twelve months.
A run to the Semi Final at the US Open may have been seen as an exceptional tournament for Carreno Busta, but he has also reached the Semi Final in Miami earlier this season. His numbers on the hard courts have been markedly better than in 2017 with a much stronger hold percentage and that is important for someone who has always been a better returning player than a server.
There has been a slight slip in the break percentage compared with 2017, but Carreno Busta has actually been winning more points against the serve than he was and that has to be encouraging for him.
The challenge is facing a big hitting player like Karen Khachanov who can hit through Carreno Busta and who has a serve that may restrict what the latter can do on the return of serve which has been key for him. Overall the Russian has some very strong numbers on the serve, but a deeper look shows he has had his issues since moving from the indoor hard courts to playing outdoors in 2018.
Khachanov had some tremendous runs indoors in 2018 and has won a title in Marseille, but the numbers have slipped on the hard courts as the tournaments have moved back outdoors. The Russian is just 3-4 on the hard courts since winning the title in Marseille and his numbers have taken a big step back both on the serve and the return.
Twelve months ago Carreno Busta beat Khachanov in the Canadian Masters, albeit in Montreal rather than Toronto, and he has enough to get the better of this match too. Carreno Busta is the slight underdog in this one, but he has really enjoyed playing on the North American hard courts over the last twelve months and I will back the Spaniard to find a way to move through to the Third Round.
Daniil Medvedev - 1.5 games v Felix Auger Aliassime: Two talented young players meet one another in the Second Round of the Canadian Masters and Felix Auger Aliassime is expected to receive plenty of support from his home crowd.
That could give him the boost he needs to back up the very good win over Lucas Pouille although this is going to be a very difficult match too.
It was a very good win for Auger Aliassime but it was one against the grain with what he has produced so far in 2018. He may have won 40% of points against the Pouille serve, which is an impressive number, but Auger Aliassime has had a much tougher time on the return of serve in 2018 on the hard courts compared to that match.
Now he is going to have to face Daniil Medvedev who has a strong hold percentage on the hard courts in 2018 as he has made improvements in all aspects of his game. That is a really strong reason why Medvedev has a strong win-loss record on the hard courts and his three wins in Toronto to come through the Qualifiers and win a main draw match here will have given the Russian confidence.
Auger Aliassime has served well but he will be challenged by Medvedev who has an impressive enough break percentage on the hard courts in 2018. The wins will have aided Medvedev and he has had a day of rest between his win over Jack Sock and this match which should help in fighting off any fatigue he may be feeling after the three matches in the Masters.
We may need three sets to settle this match, but I give Medvedev the edge against the young Canadian who actually celebrates his 18th birthday today. Maybe that gives Auger Aliassime another boost to win a second match in a row on the ATP Tour for the first time in his career on the hard courts, but Medvedev has been the stronger performer so far in 2018 on this surface and can underline that with a victory.
Karolina Pliskova - 2.5 games v Kiki Bertens: Karolina Pliskova and Kiki Bertens met at Wimbledon on what is arguably the worst surface for both players and it was Bertens who worked her way past the higher Ranked player.
Playing on the hard courts may produce a different outcome with Pliskova showing significantly better form on this surface than Bertens.
The key difference between the two players may be the way they can protect the second serve with Pliskova holding enough of an edge to think it makes the difference. The similar return numbers and winning percentage on first serve points means the second serve could be where Pliskova edges out this opponent.
Only once this season Bertens has won two matches in a row on the hard courts and hammering an overmatched opponent in the First Round may not be enough preparation for this match. Karolina Pliskova wasn't at her absolute best in her own First Round win, but she has had strong runs in Melbourne, Indian Wells and Miami this season and I think the Czech player will be able to beat Bertens and also cover this number.
Venus Williams - 4.5 games v Sorana Cirstea: These two players met in Indian Wells earlier this season and it was Venus Williams who got the better of Sorana Cirstea again having beaten her a number of years earlier.
The American is not the player she once was and there are more ups and downs in her performances these days. The serve still produces some decent numbers, but Venus Williams is no longer able to rely on that to get her out of jams and players now face her with much more belief than they once would have.
The hard courts are still a surface on which Venus Williams will be tough to beat and it has to be said that Sorana Cirstea is very inconsistent and may not have the tennis required to win this match.
Cirstea will have her moments because she is talented, but mentally she can find it tough to maintain her standards through the course of a match and that is where Venus Williams can take control.
This is a big spread, but Williams can win a number of games in a row which will give her a chance to cover the number. The serve may be just about good enough to see her edge the win in two straight sets and holding onto an early break of serve, with a couple more thrown in during the course of the set, will likely see Venus Williams through to the Third Round.
MY PICKS: Pablo Carreno Busta @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Venus Williams - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 8-3, + 8.84 Units (22 Units Staked, + 40.18% Yield)
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