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Saturday, 4 August 2018

Boxing Picks 2018- Sergey Kovalev vs Eleider Alvarez (August 4th)

What a night it was at the O2 Arena last Saturday.

The two Heavyweight clashes that topped the bill lived up to the hype as Dereck Chisora found the huge punch he needed to beat Carlos Takam while Dillian Whyte just about overcame the challenge of Joseph Parker who will be leaving the United Kingdom with more regrets having done the same after his defeat to Anthony Joshua.

It was a strong card too with some top quality fights throughout the evening and a number of the winners have set themselves up for another big night later in 2018.

Later in the evening I was able to find a way to watch the Mikey Garcia-Robert Easter Jr Unification at Lightweight as Garcia won a deserved Decision. The immediate call out of Errol Spence Jr sets Boxing up for another major night potentially before the end of the calendar year, but there has been plenty of other big news this week.


First up was the announcement that Tony Bellew and Oleksandr Usyk are in talks for a clash, although surprisingly that may come at Cruiserweight with the O2 Arena in London or the Echo Arena in Liverpool being targeted for November or December for that bout.

As excited as I am about seeing that one, the fight has quickly taken second billing to what could be a mammoth Heavyweight fight between Deontay Wilder and Tyson Fury.

At first I was a little doubtful that the fight would happen this year, but it does sound like a deal will be struck if Fury is able to beat Francesco Pianeta in the next couple of weeks. That fight would potentially land in November or December too and Wilder is heading over to Belfast to watch Fury live on August 18th which suggests this fight is much closer than the likes of Eddie Hearn would have you believe.

Picking a winner is going to be incredibly tough and I have so much time for both Wilder and Fury that it would be sad to see a loser in the contest.

More interestingly would be if there is the demand for a rematch which could land somewhere around the April date Anthony Joshua and his team have already booked Wembley Stadium for. And all in all a deal struck between Wilder and Fury would not be a good look for the Matchroom team who have been adamant they wanted the fight with the WBC Champion and have tried to desperately deflect all blame to the American's team as to why the two Champions are not in a Unification bout this fall rather than going in different directions.


The World Boxing Super Series was supposed to add a third weight class to Season 2 of what has been a very successful first season of the tournament.

After the Bantamweight and Light Welterweight Divisions were announced the rumour was that the Light Heavyweight Division was going to be next in what is another loaded class.

While nothing has been officially confirmed, Saturday is almost like a World Boxing Super Series with two Champions fighting separate bouts with all the suggestion the winners will face one another either late in 2018 or early 2019.

I am stunned none of the United Kingdom broadcasters have picked up the two Light Heavyweight Title fights taking place in Atlantic City, especially as the same fighters on a similar card back in March were picked up.

It is the second week in a row that the broadcasters have not picked up a big fight and it just means I will have to find other ways to see the card tonight.


Dmitry Bivol vs Isaac Chilemba
The main support in Atlantic City is a WBA Worvold Title fight between Dmitry Bivol and Isaac Chilemba as the Light Heavyweight Division begins to clear up to show who is the man to beat in the Division.

A lot of people would suggest Bivol, the 27 year old WBA Champion from Russia, is the top fighter in the Light Heavyweight Division as he has won all 13 of his fights and stopped 11 of his opponents. The late stoppage of Sullivan Berrera in March meant he went a little better than Andre Ward who beat the same opponent on points, and Bivol gets another chance to lay down a marker against the tough Isaac Chilemba.

Isaac Chilemba has been in with some of the biggest names in and around this Division and his 5 losses have come against the likes of Tony Bellew, Sergey Kovalev, Eleider Alvarez and Oleksandr Gvozdyk who are amongst the very best of fighters in the Light Heavyweight to Cruiserweight weight classes.

Only Gvozdyk was able to break down and stop Chilemba, but even that pull out from Chilemba was down to a broken hand and this is a real test for Bivol despite the huge power he has shown.

Of course Bivol will want to match what Gvozdyk was able to achieve, especially prior to the Ukrainian likely challenging Adonis Stevenson for the WBC Title in this Division. However Chilemba is one tough man to pin down and unload on and I think this may be a learning experience for Bivol who can't expect Chilemba to suffer the same type of injury that forced him out against Gvozdyk.

Bivol is a very good boxer as well as a power puncher and he was comfortably overcoming Sullivan Berrera before stopping him very late on. I think he may have to settle in matching what Bellew, Kovalev and Alvarez have achieved and it does feel a big price for Bivol to win this one on a Decision.

You do have to wonder if Chilemba has a lot left in the tank considering the amount of incredibly tough opponents he has taken on in the last few years and being stopped in his most recent defeat. That could be a worry when making the selection I have, but I think Chilemba can do enough to hear the final bell although coming up short at this level again.


Sergey Kovalev vs Eleider Alvarez
For a long time Eleider Alvarez has been chasing a fight with Adonis Stevenson having become the WBC Mandatory, but failing to agree terms with the notoriously fickle Canadian has meant he began to look elsewhere. Another fighter who has long chased the fight with Stevenson fruitlessly is Sergey Kovalev but he was willing to put his WBO and IBA World Titles on the line against an unbeaten contender.

There are still some questions for Kovalev to answer out of the back to back losses to Andre Ward which punctured his invincibility and his confidence. I did have Kovalev perhaps earning a draw if not winning the first fight with Ward, but the second was more conclusive and I think the talk of the low blows has overshadowed the fact that Kovalev was very hurt and also fatiguing in that fight.

This is the toughest test Kovalev would have faced since the second Ward fight and I do think Eleider Alvarez will pose some problems.

However I am not convinced he has the power to force Kovalev to take a backwards step and the Russian is a better boxer than he is perhaps given credit for. I think he will have enough to hurt Alvarez who has forced his way into the World Title talk with an unbeaten run and becoming the Mandatory for the WBC Title being held hostage by Adonis Stevenson.

The best wins in that time for Alvarez have come against Isaac Chilemba and Jean Pascal and he was perhaps fortunate to win the former of those with Majority Decisions needed for both wins too. Both are former Kovalev victims and I have a feeling the Russian will hurt Alvarez and force him into survival mode through the second half of the fight.

Ultimately I think Kovalev has too much and can keep the ball rolling towards an eventual Unification with Dmitry Bivol, but this may only be the fifth win Kovalev has to have on the cards.



Devon Alexander vs Andre Berto
Two former World Champions are in the last chance saloon as far as their careers go when they face one another at the Nassau Coliseum on Saturday.

Devon Alexander and Andre Berto can't really be considered genuine potential World Champions in the making at this stage of their careers, but the winner is very likely to get a shot at Welterweight.

In recent years it has looked like Berto doesn't have a lot left at this level, whereas Devon Alexander looked to be on the wrong end of a controversial Majority Decision Draw in his last fight with Victor Ortiz. I thought Alexander had done just enough to earn the Decision in that fight back in February and it could be a bout that is revisited if he wins this one.

Alexander showed enough speed to think he can give Berto some problems in this one and the punch resistance of the latter is not what it once was. However Alexander is not exactly known for the power to stop opponents at this level and instead I think he will do enough to earn the Decision win.

Andre Berto is an interesting character who once had big things projected for him, but who has found himself short at elite level. You have to give Berto a lot of credit for continuing to try and test himself, but I think Alexander is going to be a little too slick for him and will find a way to box himself to the victory as he continues his comeback following problems outside of the ring.

Even with the punch resistance of Berto fading fast, I think Alexander won't take the risks to go for the finish unless it presents itself clearly and instead he will look to win a wide Decision on the cards. I don't think the scorecard will be one that reflects what Alexander thinks he has done in the fight, but he should have enough to earn the nod this time after the Majority Decision Draw with Ortiz.

MY PICKS: Dmitry Bivol Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 3.75 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Sergey Kovalev Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 3.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Devon Alexander Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Boxing 2018 Update: 20-39, + 4.64 Units (89 Units Staked, + 5.21% Yield)

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