Weekend Football Picks 2018 (August 18-20)

Some may have felt the Premier League had never been away after seeing the top five from last season all win their opening League games of the 2018/19 season.

Manchester City, Manchester United, Tottenham Hotspur, Liverpool and Chelsea all scored at least twice in their wins last weekend and there does feel there is a real gap that has developed between the top six and the rest of the Premier League.

I still think we will see the upsets that have been a part of the top flight of English Football over the years, but I also think those five clubs will recognise that they will need to get very close to 80 points to finish in the Champions League places and perhaps closer to 90 points to win the Premier League.

It makes any dropped points highlighted even more and that brings a pressure of its own as both Manchester United and Liverpool have to match the away wins the other three clubs have earned.


I have written a short piece about Manchester United and some of the problems surrounding the club which can be read here.


The remainder of this month is going to be a little busy for me, but I am planning to change up this thread and add some Fantasy plays going forward from September. While the majority of the thread will be focused on the Weekend Picks as it is now, I will list three or four players in the positions of Goalkeeper, Defence, Midfield and Attack who could have a big weekend.

As any Fantasy Football player knows there are a range of prices so I will try and produce a list of two lower priced options with two potentially more expensive choices ahead of each weekend. It is a new part of the thread so will take some adjustments to make it feel like I want it to, but that will begin from the first Premier League games after the September international break.

If that date changes I will update it in the coming weeks.

Now onto the Weekend Picks with the Premier League games spread from Saturday lunchtime through to Monday evening.


Cardiff City v Newcastle United Pick: The opening Premier League game of the weekend comes from Wales as Cardiff City host Newcastle United with both clubs searching for their first points of the 2018/19 season.

Last weekend both Newcastle United and Cardiff City conceded twice in defeats to Tottenham Hotspur and Bournemouth respectively and I imagine Rafa Benitez and Neil Warnock will be looking for a big response from the players.

You have to say that both squads look short of quality at the Premier League level, but they managers who will believe they can extract more out of their players to overachieve in the coming season. Games like this look to be vital for both and I will admit I was a little surprised Newcastle United are going in as the favourites despite being away from home.

Perhaps the layers have factored in the Newcastle United run of 5 successive wins at Cardiff City including when they last met a couple of years ago. It also should be noted that Cardiff City are one of the favourites for relegation and 3 of the 4 wins Newcastle United had away from home came against teams who finished below them including at 2 of the 3 clubs that were eventually relegated.

However there has to be a real adrenaline boost for the Cardiff City players in their first home game of the season against a team the fans will believe they can beat. The side were very good at home in the Championship and there was enough shown in the final third last Saturday at the Vitality Stadium to think Cardiff City can cause problems for this Newcastle United team.

On the other hand The Magpies should also be able to create some opportunities too and I think the layers are underestimating the chance to see both teams score.

I did lean towards backing Cardiff City with the start on the Asian Handicap as the home underdog, but Rafa Benitez showed he can get enough out of his players to win games like this last season in the Premier League and that has to be respected.

The feeling is that Cardiff City and Newcastle United both create enough quality chances to score at least once each and so backing both teams to score at odds against looked the better angle of the two I considered.


Everton v Southampton Pick: The big reason Everton were able to move away from the bottom three last season was the strong form they displayed at Goodison Park for the most part. They have been very good at home in recent years and once again reached double digits in terms of home wins in the Premier League which gives Marco Silva something to build on.

The 2-2 draw at Wolves showed Everton in good light despite being reduced to ten men and they have made some good additions to the squad which underachieved for much of the last campaign. An attacking style will get the fans very much behind Silva and the players, which is so important to this club, and Everton will believe they are ready for a much better season all around.

Richarlison made his debut in style for Everton last weekend but other new faces are not expected to be available for this fixture. That means a similar team to last weekend will kick off this fixture with the potential of Kurt Zouma replacing suspended Phil Jagielka at centre half.

The performance was encouraging enough to think Everton can earn the three points here having won all 10 home games in the League agains teams that finished below them in the League table. You have to think that will be the case for Southampton who looked short of quality in the final third during their goalless draw with Burnley last weekend.

It was a big performance from Alex McCarthy which prevented Southampton from opening this campaign with a defeat and the goalkeeper is likely going to be very important again in this fixture. Southampton will look to make life difficult for Everton by being set up to be hard to beat, but the players look to have responded to Marco Silva in a positive way and I think Everton will earn the three points barring another early sending off like in the game against Wolves.

Everton do have a strong home record against Southampton over the years and I think they will pose enough of an attacking threat to edge out The Saints who scored just 17 away goals last season.


Leicester City v Wolves Pick: There have been some rumours that the Leicester City players are looking to get rid of another manager having downed tools for the likes of Claudio Ranieri and Craig Shakespeare over the last couple of years. It sounds like they have now had enough of Claude Puel despite the strong performance at Old Trafford in their first game of the Premier League season and that makes it tough to trust them.

Any club that have players who are willing to produce poor enough performances to ensure a manager is replaced can't really be backed to win games with the rumours around Leicester City. They were also a team that did have some difficulties getting up for games against the so-called 'lesser' clubs in the Premier League and that is highlighted by the fact that only 3 of their 7 home League wins came against teams that finished below them in the table.

Having a derby game should mean the players are well aware of the importance of playing Wolves this weekend and I am not completely convinced the rumours about the player's dissatisfaction are on point. They played with some confidence at Old Trafford and better finishing might have stolen a point against Manchester United and I expect Leicester City to fashion some opportunities against this Wolves team.

Wolves played well enough to earn a point against Everton last weekend in their return to the Premier League and they have some big ambitions. The sending off of Phil Jagielka certainly helped the Wolves cause and I think there is going to be a tough learning curve for the club early in the season as they bed in players who are not used to playing at the Premier League level.

I do think Nuno Espirito Santo will look to make Wolves hard to beat and I don't think Leicester City can take this for granted. I do edge towards the home team if they can replicate how they played at Manchester United last Friday and Jamie Vardy's return to the starting eleven will help with converting the opportunities they can create this weekend.

The derby nature of the fixture makes it a little tougher to predict too, but I am looking for The Foxes to edge out Wolves. I will back Leicester City on the Asian Handicap which will return half the stake in the event of a draw, but my feeling is that Leicester City will have just enough in the final third to win their first game of the 2018/19 season.


Tottenham Hotspur v Fulham Pick: A London derby will be played at Wembley Stadium on Saturday in the Premier League as Tottenham Hotspur fans get used to playing in the national stadium for at least a couple of months. The delay to the move to the 'New White Hart Lane' is a bother to the club in general as they have to scramble to book venues to play their League and Champions League fixtures coming up, but the players will be focused on events on the field.

They showed they can do that after a positive 1-2 win at Newcastle United last weekend and Tottenham Hotspur have some returning players to boost the squad ahead of this one. The form at Wembley Stadium was decent enough from Tottenham Hotspur, especially down the stretch, to think they won't be too bothered about having to play their next few 'home' games here.

Fulham also have some fond memories of playing at Wembley Stadium having secured their Premier League status with a 1-0 win over Aston Villa in the Championship Play Off Final in May. The 0-2 defeat to Crystal Palace has shown how difficult the move to the Premier League will be for any club coming up from the Championship and it will be tough for Fulham to respond with a really positive result here.

In the last couple of seasons Tottenham Hotspur have been particularly dominant when hosting clubs in the bottom half of the table. They have won 9 of 10 against those clubs in each of the last couple of years and Tottenham Hotspur have enough attacking quality to win this one with some room to spare.

17 of their 30 Premier League wins over the last two seasons have come by at least a two goal margin for Tottenham Hotspur and I think they will have a little too much for a Fulham team who are missing some key players. Fulham could play their part against a Tottenham Hotspur team who did have a couple of defensive mistakes in them last week, but I will back the home team on the Asian Handicap to win this fixture by at least two goals on the day.


West Ham United v Bournemouth Pick: Last week was a chastening experience for the West Ham United fans who have been dreaming of some very big things for their club this summer. The 4-0 defeat at Anfield may be something that other clubs experience, but it could be good for Manuel Pellegrini and his players to not be saddled with the huge expectations of the fans in their first home game of the new season.

The fans will still be expectant, but they will stay behind their team who may need some weeks to gel in together have signed a number of new players and also having a new voice to listen to in the dressing room.

I do expect better from West Ham United this weekend when they face Bournemouth at the London Stadium although they will have to show significantly better defensive desire to do that. Liverpool can cut open teams, but they were aided massively by the poor defending West Ham United produced and that is something Pellegrini would have worked on during the week.

It is important for West Ham United who will have their chances against Bournemouth but who have to be wary of the attacking intent shown by The Cherries in their win over Cardiff City last week. Bournemouth have had some success in East London at West Ham United since being promoted to the Premier League and their win last weekend will have given the players a boost in confidence to take into this fixture.

However Bournemouth have generally not been so good on their travels and they are a team who have struggled defensively in the last couple of years with at least 61 conceded in both seasons. There is enough about this West Ham United team from an attacking front to think they can get after this Bournemouth side although the fans can sometimes make it a tough atmosphere to play in.

That shouldn't be the case on Saturday with the optimism around the club and I expect West Ham United to bounce back from their defeat at Anfield. It will be a tight game at the London Stadium but I will back West Ham United on the Asian Handicap which will at least return half the stake if this game ends in a draw.


Chelsea v Arsenal Pick: The second live game in the Premier League on Saturday comes from Stamford Bridge as Chelsea and Arsenal meet in a London derby managed by two new faces.

Maurizio Sarri got off to a very good start as he guided Chelsea to a 0-3 win at Huddersfield Town, but this is a much bigger test for him against a quality opponent. The manager himself is downplaying some expectations for his team as he believes it will take a couple of months for the players to really get on board with his tactics, but Sarri is clearly looking for the players to enjoy themselves.

That is something most will get on board with much quicker than with hard taskmasters like Antonio Conte and Chelsea have the likes of Willian and Eden Hazard ready to be unleashed on this Arsenal team.

Unai Emery was given a real eye-opener as to how much work he has to do at the Emirates Stadium after Arsenal were beaten very comfortably by Manchester City. Some of the criticism of the manager has been a little over the top especially when it comes from 'tactical masters' like Sam Allardyce and Tony Adams, but Emery does deserve some of it.

He has to have know it would not be suitable for Arsenal to try and play from the back against the Manchester City high press with the players Emery could use in defensive players. That could be a real problem against Sarri and his Chelsea team if Emery has not learned a lesson and I do feel like this could be another very difficult match for The Gunners.

Last Sunday the Arsenal forwards couldn't really get into the game against Manchester City, but I do expect better from them at Stamford Bridge. Chelsea had an easy day defensively against Huddersfield Town, but I would imagine a much sterner examination from Arsenal although this does feel like a fixture that the home side should have the edge in.

Last season Arsenal managed two goalless draws at Stamford Bridge to snap a 5 game losing run on this ground. They did have some fortune in those games to keep Chelsea out, but it will offer some encouragement to the players.

However I am not sure it will be enough on the day and Chelsea can back up their strong win at Huddersfield Town by adding another victory on Saturday. With the likes of Willian and Hazard likely to force mistakes in the Arsenal defensive areas, I think Chelsea have enough to earn the victory and will back them to do that.


Burnley v Watford Pick: Over the last couple of years it has been wins over teams in the bottom half that have helped keep Burnley in the Premier League and they will be looking to make Turf Moor a tough place for teams to visit again. Sean Dyche will be very keen to see his Burnley team pick up their first Premier League win at the first time of asking at Turf Moor, but the challenge is balancing the League with the Europa League commitments.

There were enough key players rested for the win on Thursday which will encourage Dyche that the Burnley squad can perform well both domestically and in European tournaments this season. It is still going to be interesting to see how Burnley handle the Thursday-Sunday combination this weekend having needed extra time to beat Istanbul Basaksehir on Thursday evening, but at least that Second Leg was played at home so travelling is not a problem.

Regardless it is still a difficult test to have to play twice in a week against an opponent who will have been preparing all week for this fixture.

Watford made a strong start to the new Premier League season by comfortably beating Brighton 2-0 at Vicarage Road, but Javi Gracia will know The Hornets need to improve their away form to avoid being dragged into a relegation scrap. Last season they did win 4 away games, but those who came pretty early in the season and Watford's run of 13 away games without a win during which time they have been beaten 12 times has to be a major concern.

They were beaten at all of the clubs that finished in the top nine of the Premier League table last season and 13 losses in 19 away League games is a very poor return. Watford lost the same number of away games the season before last and Burnley have shown they have kept their strong defensive discipline from last season which will make them very tough to beat.

I have some reservations about the fact that Burnley have little time to prepare for this one, but I think Sean Dyche did pick a team on Thursday with this Premier League game in mind. The poor Watford away record in the last couple of years in the Premier League added to the fact that Burnley have beaten them twice in a row makes me lean towards the home team earning their first League win of the season.

However the potential fatigue factor means I will back Burnley on the Asian Handicap which will at least return half the stake in the event of a draw. That is still an odds against price and looks the best way to back Burnley to win their first game of the 2018/19 season.


Manchester City v Huddersfield Town Pick: The big news this week is that Kevin De Bruyne suffered a knee injury in training for Manchester City which means Pep Guardiola will have to do without a key figure for what could be up to four months. The full diagnosis will come out this week prior to the Premier League game against Huddersfield Town but for the foreseeable future it looks like Manchester City will have to do without their Belgian playmaker.

The fixture list over the next couple of months is not one that will intimidate Manchester City who still have plenty of quality to fall back upon. David Silva may not be ready for this weekend, but the Spaniard will be fresh going forward as he has called time on his international career, while Bernardo Silva and Riyad Mahrez could could be huge influences going forward.

A home game with Huddersfield Town should be one that Manchester City enjoy, although they had two tough Premier League games against them last season. Late in the season Huddersfield Town battled for a goalless draw at the Etihad Stadium and the fixture at the John Smith's Stadium was only decided in the last ten minutes in favour of Manchester City.

It will be very difficult for Huddersfield Town to produce the same kind of defensive performance they did a few months ago in the draw here. Over the second half of the Premier League season Huddersfield Town finished with the 19th best record in the top flight, while the 0-3 home loss to Chelsea on the opening weekend underlines the kind of struggles this club could be in for.

A lack of goals has to be a real worry for David Wagner and the Huddersfield Town fans, but they can come to the Etihad Stadium with nothing to lose and give it a really good go. Set pieces will be where Huddersfield Town could be dangerous, but Manchester City finished with the best defensive record in the Premier League last season and they can make it back to back clean sheets to open the 2018/19 campaign.

Backing Manchester City to win with the clean sheet looks the best way to approach this game with the home side being asked to cover a big Asian Handicap. I considered that with the goals Manchester City have in the squad, but Huddersfield Town were only beaten by three or more goals in 4 of their 19 away games last season and instead I will look to oppose them in the goalscoring market considering their struggles there in 2017/18.


Brighton v Manchester United Pick: By hook or by crook all Manchester United fans just wanted the team to help put the poor summer transfer window behind them and earn the victory over Leicester City to open the 2018/19 season.

It was a tough night at Old Trafford but the players made a very good start and then had to battle for the victory over The Foxes.

Ultimately the three points were most important although the Paul Pogba relationship breakdown with Jose Mourinho is a concern for the dressing room harmony. The comments made by Pogba after the win over Leicester City have led to further headlines during the week that the two men are barely on speaking terms at the moment and it does feel Manchester United could be one poor result away from things spiralling out of control.

That is a real concern when you consider backing Manchester United to win any game at the moment, but I do think they can get some revenge for an embarrassing 1-0 defeat at the Amex Stadium back in early May. With the likes of Romelu Lukaku, Ashley Young and possibly Jesse Lingard back, Manchester United have a group of players who should be good enough to win games like this even though they were beaten in this Stadium last time they visited.

On that occasion Manchester United had two or three very good chances to lead before Brighton scored with a rare foray into the final third and the home team will have to be a lot better than on the opening weekend to beat Manchester United again.

Brighton were comfortably beaten by Watford last weekend and they barely created anything of note in the fixture. They have been a much better team at home in the Premier League, but 3 of their 4 home losses last season came against sides who finished in the top five.

Generally those clubs had a little too much quality for Brighton and I do think Manchester United would have been another to win here if they had scored first at the Amex Stadium in early May when the chances came their way. This time they will have Alexis Sanchez and Romelu Lukaku at the end of those and I do think the dressing room are still on the same page as the management staff at the moment.

There is no denying Brighton can make life difficult for an opponent if they get the chance to dig in and not fall behind too early, but they have to be a lot better than last week. I am not sure their new signings will have bedded in just yet, and I do think Manchester United will find a way to win here.

All 4 of Brighton's home losses came by two or more goals last season and Manchester United won half of their 10 away wins by the same margin. I will back Manchester United on the Asian Handicap which will give us a full payout if they win by two or more goals, but still provide a positive return if Manchester United win by a single goal margin.


Crystal Palace v Liverpool Pick: It can be very easy to overreact to performances and results from the opening weekend of any domestic League campaign, but Liverpool fans won't feel they are doing that after the encouraging 4-0 win over West Ham United. This is a season in which the Liverpool fans have to genuinely believe they win the Premier League title and they can make a statement by winning at Selhurst Park.

While Crystal Palace have not exactly made this ground a fortress, the atmosphere should be very good on Monday night and Roy Hodgson has got the players pulling in the same direction.

The former England and Liverpool manager is well organised and you have to expect his Crystal Palace team to follow the instructions set out for them. They have been very good under Hodgson's guidance and even the losses to Tottenham Hotspur, Liverpool and Manchester United here were very unfortunate considering Crystal Palace led in the latter two of those before succumbing to late goals.

With Wilfried Zaha in the line up, Crystal Palace will try and hit Liverpool on the counter attack after frustrating them on the other end of the pitch, but keeping Liverpool out is not going to be easy. The front three have already settled into the new season and the addition of Naby Keita to the midfield was huge for them.

Even with that in mind I have to respect how improved Crystal Palace have been under Hodgson and I do think they can pose some real problems for Liverpool. I certainly expect better from Crystal Palace than West Ham United produced last weekend having gift wrapped a couple of the Liverpool goals and I also think Crystal Palace have a bit more going forward than The Hammers showed.

Like I said last week, it is hard to imagine Liverpool not scoring and I do think both clubs will be on the scoreboard this Monday. The last 8 between these clubs at Selhurst Park have featured both teams scoring, while 12 of the last 14 overall have also done the same.

I did consider backing Crystal Palace with the start on the Asian Handicap which looks a big number, but ultimately I just leaned towards both teams scoring a little more and will back that to be the outcome of this one.

MY PICKS: Cardiff City-Newcastle United Both Teams to Score @ 2.20 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Everton @ 1.91 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Leicester City - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
West Ham United - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Chelsea @ 1.85 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Burnley - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City Win to Nil @ 1.61 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Manchester United - 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Crystal Palace-Liverpool Both Teams to Score @ 1.75 Bet365 (2 Units)

August 2018/19 Update: 6-2, + 8.10 Units (16 Units Staked, + 50.63% Yield)