Tennis Picks 2018 (August 3rd)

I have begun writing this post out on Thursday, but the lack of angles from the ATP Kitzbuhel Semi Final matches meant I was always going to wait until Friday before posting any Tennis Picks.

Looking back at the overnight results from Thursday and it has become clear that this week has been turned around effectively after opening up with a 0-4 start.

Since then the Tennis Picks have gone 13-3 to move this week into a positive position, but I do want to put a neat bow on things by making sure there is something to add to the season totals. We still have a couple of days this week before the first of the back to back Masters events in Canada and Cincinnati so there is still work to be done.


Juan Martin Del Potro - 4.5 games v Damir Dzumhur: If you're looking for a player to be a genuine contender for the US Open title at the end of this month and want to oppose the favourites then I think Juan Martin Del Potro could be the man you want on your side.

He is currently at double digit quotes to win a second US Open title but that could shorten significantly if he has a strong time on the hard courts over the next three weeks. The Argentinian has already showed how good he can be on this surface by winning titles in Acapulco and Indian Wells already this season, while Del Potro backed those weeks up by reaching the Miami Semi Final.

Being injury free is always the question mark around Del Potro these days, but he is coming into this month as healthy as he has looked all season and is also closing in on his highest ever World Ranking. There also has been no suggestions he has arrived in Los Cabos to only enjoy the beach with a couple of dominating wins, although Damir Dzumhur provides a tougher challenge.

Even then Del Potro has some stunning numbers on the hard courts in 2018 and his return game has been of a similar level to when he won the US Open back in 2009. Those will put some real pressure on Dzumhur who has not been at his best on the hard courts in 2018 and I do think the serve is going to be under attack for much of this match.

Del Potro has won both previous matches against Dzumhur and he has been strong in both of those wins. I anticipate he will have the majority of break point chances in this match and I like Del Potro to cover a big looking number on his way to the Final here.


David Goffin - 1.5 games v Stefanos Tsitsipas: On Thursday I backed David Goffin to cover this same number against another talented youngster coming up on the Tour and he managed to do that very comfortably. I have little doubt it will be tougher for him when he faces Stefanos Tsitsipas, but I will look for the Belgian to do that again.

There is no doubt that Tsitsipas is developing in a manner which will make him a threat to win many Grand Slam titles in the years ahead and he has all the makings of a future World Number 1. However Tsitsipas is still a work in progress and has to get more out of his return game if he is going to take the next step in his very young career.

The serve is a huge weapon for the Greek player though and it is one that can build pressure on opponents when Tsitsipas is at his best. Winning two matches in Washington already suggests he is near his top level especially when you look at the way Tsitsipas has beaten Jared Donaldson and James Duckworth but this is a significant step up in class.

David Goffin might not have the eye-catching serve that some players have, but it has been good enough for him and he is holding almost 80% of his service games on the hard courts. That should be a number he can replicate against Tsitsipas who has struggled on the return, while that also should give Goffin a chance to go on the attack when in his own return games.

The Belgian has a very good return game and I do think he can put some pressure on Tsitsipas in this Quarter Final from that side of things. I expect Goffin to really try and get after the second serve and I like his chances of beating Tsitsipas in a tight match.


Johanna Konta - 3.5 games v Elise Mertens: The Australian Open was a huge tournament for Elise Mertens who reached the Semi Final Down Under, but playing on the hard courts has been much more difficult for her since then.

Since that stunning run through the draw which came up a little short, Mertens' numbers have really declined and it is perhaps no surprise that she is just 4-5 on this surfaced since February.

Now she has to face a confident Johanna Konta who backed up her crushing of Serena Williams with another strong performance in the Second Round. Konta inflicted the worst loss in Serena's career and she is a player that has had considerable success on the hard courts over the last couple of years to believe she could round into some good form over the next month despite a disappointing 2018 so far.

To be fair to Konta, her numbers on the hard courts have been very similar to the last couple of years but she has not been able to win the close matches to prolong her run in tournaments. The win over Serena Williams may be the shot of confidence Konta needed to make those close losses turn into close wins and I think she is the superior hard court player in this match.

These players met at the Miami Premier Event earlier this season and it was Konta who crushed Mertens for the loss of just three games. I doubt it is as straight-forward as that again, but I do think Konta can keep things rolling in San Jose by winning this match and covering the number.


Venus Williams - 1.5 games v Maria Sakkari: I picked Timea Babos to beat Maria Sakkari on Thursday and that has to be the worst pick I have made this week as Babos won a single game in a heavy loss.

However I am not willing to knock my theory on the head that Sakkari is massively overachieving in terms of her results at the moment and her numbers don't back her up.

I have to give her some credit for protecting the second serve as she has done, but Sakkari's return numbers are down and now she faces Venus Williams who is still playing at a decent level. The American is clearly in decline these days but she has managed to produce a solid 10-4 record on the hard courts and the serve remains a decent weapon for her.

The key to this match is that Venus Williams is still returning much better than Sakkari and I don't think the latter will be able to get away with too many second serves in this one. All credit to Sakkari for putting the wins together as she has, but I do want to oppose her here even if I am on the wrong side of things for a second day in a row.

I was expecting Venus Williams to be a much stronger favourite than is the case and I will look for the veteran to get this done and cover the number.

MY PICKS: Juan Martin Del Potro - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
David Goffin - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Johanna Konta - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Venus Williams - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 13-7, + 9.64 Units (40 Units Staked, + 24.10% Yield)