Tennis Picks 2018 (August 2nd)

Monday and Tuesday were disappointing, but Wednesday has proved to be a lot better for the Tennis Picks to begin to turn this week around.

At the time of writing there are still a couple of matches to be completed in the ATP Washington Second Round which will really determine how positive this week has begun to look, but the first four Tennis Picks made on Wednesday have all returned winners.

I was a little lucky with Kyle Edmund covering against Andy Murray despite losing the match, but the other three winners were pretty much deserved even if a couple of the players missed out on winning the match in much easier fashion than it turned out to be. That doesn't matter to me when it comes to finding winners, especially where those players have deservedly moved through, and I have something to build on this week to try and add some positive numbers to the season totals before the move to Canada as the Masters/Premier Events in Toronto and Montreal begin next week.


Timea Babos v Maria Sakkari: This is a Second Round match from San Jose as the Quarter Final line up is put together for Friday and I am going to back the underdog to win this match.

The layers are not finding it easy to split Timea Babos and Maria Sakkari, but I do think the latter is a touch overrated thanks to some stand out wins on the Tour in 2018. Maria Sakkari has been a strong winner against some of the best players on the Tour, but her numbers suggest it is an unsustainable level that she is producing and Babos is a very competent hard court player that could edge her out.

One of the stand out issues Sakkari has had on the hard courts is she has struggled with her return this season compared to the last couple of years. That could be put to the test against a decent server like Babos and I think the Hungarian has an edge here.

I also expect Babos to have enough success against the Sakkari second serve to have every chance of securing the upset in this match.

Babos has also shown herself to be a dangerous player once she puts a couple of wins together in the same tournament and that has especially been the case on the hard courts in 2018. This is a player who has dropped off the standard she set for herself in 2015 and 2016, but Babos has shown signs she is getting back to that kind of level and I expect that will be too much for Sakkari who is a good player, but one who has been overachieving in 2018.


Venus Williams - 4.5 games v Heather Watson: There have been definite signs of slippage in the Venus Williams game in 2018 and I do wonder if the former World Number 1 has missed her best chance to add another Grand Slam to her collection in 2017.

Venus Williams was able to reach the Final of the Australian Open and Wimbledon as well as the US Open Semi Final but she won none of those tournaments and 2018 has been much more difficult all around. At least a move back onto the hard courts can give the elder Williams sister a chance to put some wins together and rebuild her confidence.

In general her hard court numbers have been pretty solid in 2018 and that definitely gives Venus Williams the edge over Heather Watson who has slipped outside of the top 100 in the World Rankings.

Watson began 2018 with a strong run in Hobart having come through the Qualifiers and eventually make the Quarter Final of that tournament. That has helped her produce an 8-10 record for the season, but Watson is just 1-7 since the end of her run in Hobart and her numbers and her numbers have taken a hit right across the board.

The win over Claire Lui in the First Round at least ended her run of losses on the hard courts, but Watson is now facing a much bigger challenge. You have to factor in the fact that Venus Williams is playing her first hard court tournament of the summer, but even that may not be enough to see Watson challenge the American here.


Denis Istomin + 2.5 games v Maximilian Marterer: The clay courts have not been very kind to Denis Istomin in 2018, but his numbers suggested that he had been very unfortunate not to have put some wins up. After losing all 9 matches played on the clay courts in 2018, Istomin has found some form in Kitzbuhel where he has come through the Qualifiers.

Adding a couple more wins in the main draw means Istomin has reached a Quarter Final on the surface and I think he has a better chance of the upset against Maximilian Marterer than the layers believe.

Istomin is serving effectively on the surface although there is no doubt he would like to be a really more dangerous on the return of serve. His actual percentage of points won against the serve are not that bad, but Istomin has not been able to convert the break points he has created and that has put some pressure on the serve.

Even then his return numbers are better looking than those that Marterer has produced and his serve has been a little more solid on this surface. Of course Marterer did reach the Fourth Round at the French Open, but that may have influenced his prices and he is winning less points on serve and return in terms of a percentage than Istomin.

With the momentum the latter has built up he should be confident he can secure an upset, but I will take the games available in case of a tight third set defeat for Istomin.


Jaume Munar - 1.5 games v Taro Daniel: You have got to be impressed with the way both of these players have been playing on the clay courts over the last six weeks. Both Jaume Munar and Taro Daniel have had considerable success on the clay courts at the Challenger level and they have bought that onto the main Tour too.

Even then you would have to say both Munar and Daniel would have hoped for more wins and they also were beaten by the same Roberto Bautista Agut in back to back matches in Gstaad last week.

The key to the match could be how well Daniel serves- he has been producing some of his best tennis of his career as far as the serve has been going and that has been especially true on the clay courts. However this time he is facing a strong returner in Munar who has broken opponents very quickly and who will look to force Daniel to beat him from the back of the court.

Munar may be the more comfortable on the clay courts, but I don't think Daniel will be too scared of having to break the Spaniard's serve considering it is a weapon that can be attacking. He may also have confidence from having beaten Munar in the Barcelona Qualifiers around fifteen months ago but Munar looks an improved player now and I think he edges out Daniel this time.


Cameron Norrie v Adrian Mannarino: This is only the second pick I am making from Los Cabos this week and I am backing the fast improving Cameron Norrie to get the better of his fellow left-handed opponent in Adrian Mannarino in this Quarter Final.

Norrie had a strong run in Atlanta last week and his College experience in the United States should mean he is very comfortable on the hard courts. His numbers have backed that up in 2018 with a slight improvement in his service hold percentage and points won behind serve percentage despite the step up to more regular time on the ATP Tour.

His returning is decent enough on the hard courts too and the results have been good over the last couple of weeks which will have given him confidence.

Adrian Mannarino cannot be underestimated considering all of the veteran experience he has and the Frenchman is a very competent hard court player in his own right. However his returning numbers have taken a hit from previous seasons and that could be the difference in what is expected to be a tight Quarter Final to be played on Thursday.

Those returning numbers have shown a sharp decline when facing opponents Ranked in the top 100 and Cameron Norrie can make another Semi Final on the hard courts this week.


David Goffin - 1.5 games v Francis Tiafoe: The ATP Washington event has had plenty of problems with rain this week and that may be the case on Thursday too so don't be surprised if this match is not in a position to take to the courts.

However at some point David Goffin and Francis Tiafoe will have to play and I am giving the edge to the Belgian in what looks a potentially very good match.

There has been a big improvement from Tiafoe this year and he looks a player that will make some serious strides up the World Rankings in the next twelve months. The American has moved into the top 50 of the World Rankings but there is still some more room for improvement as the 20 year old continues to show some inconsistencies which won't be a massive surprise.

His serve has improved, but Tiafoe is still working on getting the best out of his return game although he may have a few more chances against the David Goffin serve. In saying that, Goffin has been able to look after his serve well enough on the hard courts in 2018 and he will be all the better for battling past Pierre-Hugues Herbert in the Second Round.

Goffin has not been in the best form since the end of the French Open, but he will be happy to be back on the hard courts and I think he will edge out Tiafoe in what could be a very fun match to watch once the rain clears away.

MY PICKS: Timea Babos @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Venus Williams - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Denis Istomin + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Jaume Munar - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Cameron Norrie @ 1.83 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
David Goffin - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 8-5, + 4.68 Units (26 Units Staked, + 18% Yield)