Last week was a really disappointing one for the Tennis Picks as I struggled to find enough winners in the second half of the week and thus ended with a losing record and a poor return for the week.
Rafael Nadal and Simona Halep won't be too concerned about my own issues as they won the titles in Toronto and Montreal respectively and they may be the two favourites to win the final Grand Slam of the season.
Nadal has decided to skip the second of the two Masters events in Cincinnati as he wants to take some time to rest and get ready for the US Open, but Roger Federer is back this week and this is another chance for players to lay down a marker.
It should also be a week in which the women's draw at the US Open is shown to be as wide open as it was twelve months ago when Sloane Stephens surprisingly won the title. Stephens reached the Final in Montreal with some good wins behind her and she was unfortunate to lose in the Final against Halep which will give the American confidence as she gets set to defend the Grand Slam she won last year.
The tournament in Cincinnati brings in some of the faster hard court conditions on the Tour so that has to be factored into the Tennis Picks being made this week. The First Round has already begun on Sunday and there are a number more to be played over the next couple of days before what looks like some poorer weather hitting this part of the world which may mean players are going to have play a lot of tennis in a short period to try and win the tournament here.
Hopefully it will be a much better week for the Tennis Picks than I had in Canada last week too and that can begin with the First Round selections made from the Monday offering.
Kei Nishikori - 2.5 games v Andrey Rublev: The Tennis Tour has moved onto Cincinnati this week and it is the last really big tournament to be played before the final Grand Slam of the 2018 season begins later this month. It is important for players to get some matches under their legs, but both Kei Nishikori and Andrey Rublev have already enjoyed some success this summer.
The more surprising of those has to be Rublev's Semi Final run in Washington earlier this month considering the youngster was coming back from an injury. He was not able to back that up in Toronto last week, but Rublev will be hoping to put some Ranking points on the board in Cincinnati knowing he has a lot of points to defend from his Quarter Final appearance at the US Open last year.
Rublev has been a little inconsistent on the hard courts in 2018 and his serving numbers are slightly down on 2017, but it is the return which has made him so effective. However the defeat in Toronto means he has been beaten in the First Round in all three Masters events played in 2018 and now he faces a tough opponent in Kei Nishikori who also had a poor week in Canada which he would love to bounce back from.
The Japanese star reached the Quarter Final in Washington before going down to a First Round defeat to Robin Haase last week. Nishikori was returning from an injury earlier this season which may have contributed to the dent in his hard court numbers compared with recent seasons, but you would hope Nishikori will get more out of his return of serve than he has gotten so far in 2018.
On the main ATP Tour Nishikori's break percentage is down to 21% compared with 28% in 2017 and that is despite only a slight drop in the amount of points being won against serve. It certainly makes it very difficult for Nishikori to win matches when you think the serve has always been slightly vulnerable and even those numbers have been down compared to recent seasons.
To be fair to Nishikori, the numbers are much better when he has played opponents Ranked outside the top 20 and that is what he is facing with Rublev in the First Round in Cincinnati. There is much to like about the young Russian's game, but his numbers are pretty average on the hard courts when facing opponents Ranked inside the top 50 and I will back Nishikori to be the player who bounces back from the early exit in Toronto and he can win and cover in this one.
Sam Querrey v John Isner: Two big serving American players meet in the First Round and the notoriously quick conditions in Cincinnati could make this very much a match with limited chances for either to break the serve of the other.
John Isner has had the better season than Sam Querrey after looking like he was in decline in 2017, but this is a match that has very little between them and I am not convinced Sam Querrey should be such an underdog.
The numbers generated by the two players are very similar but Querrey has perhaps shown the better returning compared with Isner which could be huge in a match that should feature at least one and possibly two tie-breakers.
Isner's return numbers are much better than recent seasons so has to be respected, while his serve continues to be a huge weapon for him. Winning the title in Miami back in April was a huge boost of confidence for Isner but he has hd a couple of surprising early exits in Washington and Toronto after winning the title in Atlanta yet again at the end of July.
There has been a lot less success for Querrey on the hard courts in 2018 compared with Isner, but this has all the hallmarks of a really close match so taking the significant underdog looks the right play.
MY PICKS: Kei Nishikori - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Sam Querrey @ 2.37 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Season 2018 Update: + 19.68 Units (1331 Units Staked, + 1.48% Yield)
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