The final Grand Slam of the season gets underway on Monday with half of the First Round matches scheduled to be played.
The top half of both the men's and women's tournaments are played on Monday and I am hoping to build on the slightly profitable last week.
During the early part of the US Open my plan is to write out the analysis for a number of matches and then add any remaining Picks as I am in the midst of a busy week which coincides with the first week at the Slam in New York.
Regardless I will only place my Picks on any match I feel I have being able to research to the same level as usual and if they fit into my parameters.
One aspect I have changed is when I am going to make my Outright Picks, if any, in this tournament. I really think it is a tough event to read, especially from the women's side of things, and so a watching brief early in the event and then making a selection or two looks the best way to approach things.
Rafael Nadal is the only player that appealed from the men's draw and he is the second favourite here, but I will focus on the daily picks from the tournament.
Jack Sock - 4.5 games v Guido Andreozzi: 2018 has been an incredibly poor year for Jack Sock and the loss of form is a real surprise when you think the American won the Paris Masters and reached the Semi Final of the ATP World Tour Finals at the end of 2017. A 5-16 record in 2018 does not inspire any sort of confidence in Jack Sock so it may be a big surprise to read that I will not only be backing him to win in the First Round at the US Open, but also win by a large enough margin to cover this number.
Sock has never been a dominant player on the hard courts despite the feeling that he should be at his most happiest on this surface. He might have been 50-30 on the surface in 2016 and 2017 combined, but Sock has been winning with some tight numbers and the slight decline on serve and return on the hard courts in 2018 has seen Sock drop into a losing record.
He has only reached one Fourth Round at the US Open in the last three seasons and a couple of early losses makes him look a vulnerable Seed in this tournament. Sock is about to take a significant fall in the World Rankings in the months ahead if he can't put some wins together and confidence has looked short which makes it a bit of a surprise I am willing to back him, but the First Round draw looks about as good as Sock could have asked for.
There have been a couple of disappointing losses for Sock on the hard courts in 2018, but he won't have played someone like Guido Andreozzi who has played just eighteen hard court matches since the beginning of 2016. Andreozzi did reach the Third Round in Winston Salem last week having come through the Qualifiers and that may give him some belief to take into New York, but he has a vulnerable serve on the hard courts and that is where Sock has to take advantage.
The Argentinian has not won enough points behind serve to take advantage of what has been a decent return game. I do think Andreozzi can cause problems for Sock who simply has not played with any real confidence for some time but the latter should still have enough to win this in four sets which should also be good enough for him to cover this number.
Grigor Dimitrov v Stan Wawrinka: There is no doubt this is the best looking match in the men's First Round at the US Open and the layers are finding it tough to decide who will win when Grigor Dimitrov takes on Stan Wawrinka. There are some serious doubts about both of these players with neither showing strong form and it makes picking a winner slightly more awkward.
It is Dimitrov who has the better of the head to head, but their two previous matches at Grand Slam level have both been won by Stan Wawrinka. The last of those came at the last Grand Slam at Wimbledon where Dimitrov was knocked out by Wawrinka in the First Round but that was a very close match and the Bulgarian has to be kicking himself that he was not able to secure the win.
In general his performances on the hard courts have been disappointing too in 2018 and Dimitrov's numbers have really slipped off his recent standards. The real decline has come on the return of serve which was going to make him an over-rated favourite as far as I was concerned, but the draw means Dimitrov is actually the underdog in this match and I like his position there.
While Dimitrov's serve and return numbers are down, he is still winning very slightly more points in matches on the hard courts. That could be significant in this match because Stan Wawrinka has been struggling for consistency and has won less points than his opponents on this surface in 2018.
Wawrinka is having more issues on the return of serve than Dimitrov when it comes to hard court matches and that is where the narrow underdog in this match could be the right play. Both players have had some decent wins in Toronto and Cincinnati over the last month, but Wawrinka has had to dig deep to win a couple of his matches and the limited return game has been a factor as to why he has yet to reach the heights he can following injury.
Their match at Wimbledon was incredibly close and it won't take a lot to turn that around in favour of Dimitrov here. I am anticipating a very close match, but Dimitrov has the ever so slightly better percentage when it comes to the hold of serve and break of serve. That is enough to have me backing him as the underdog in this quality looking First Round match that could potentially go all the way to five sets on Monday.
Denis Kudla v Matteo Berrettini: This has the potential of being a very close First Round match when Matteo Berrettini and Denis Kudla meet at the US Open on Monday. These two players have already met twice on the hard courts in 2018 and both Berrettini and Kudla have won one match each with the Italian winning the most recent of those at the Indian Wells Masters tournament in March.
The first match was won by Kudla in the Australian Open Qualifiers but they have been closely matched and the feeling is that there won't be a lot between them when they meet in the First Round.
However I have to give the very slight edge to Kudla who should be more at home on the North American hard courts even though he did lose the match with Berrettini in Indian Wells. The Kudla numbers on the hard courts have been the slightly superior of the two and the gap is only increased when you take into consideration full ATP matches alone.
Both players have had a solid run on the hard courts over the last month with Kudla reaching the Washington Quarter Final and Berrettini making the Winston Salem Third Round last week. However Berrettini is holding at less than 80% in main Tour matches on the hard courts and he has really struggled when it comes to the break of serve and those numbers have taken a significant drop off when compared to the Italian's overall hard court numbers.
Kudla's numbers have not dropped at the same level when considering his main Tour matches on the hard courts alone. The American has held 85% of his service games in these matches on this surface and while he does not have the best returning stats, Kudla does have superior numbers to Berrettini which could make all the difference in a close First Round match.
With that in mind it also feels wrong to see Kudla down as the underdog in this match and I will back him to win and move through to the Second Round.
Vasek Pospisil v Lukas Lacko: When you look at the participants in this First Round match you could easily place this kind of match at a Challenger level tournament rather than at the final Grand Slam of the season. Both Vasek Pospisil and Lukas Lacko have struggled to take their game to the main ATP level in the last couple of years, but I expect both to be very happy with the draw in the First Round and the possibility to earning some big Ranking points.
The numbers of both players take a serious dent when you look at how they have performed on the main ATP level, but that shouldn't be a big concern in this match up.
Vasek Pospisil has had the more consistent success at the Challenger level on the hard courts compared with Lukas Lacko, but the latter has also reached the Final at that level. That is important to note, but I don't think you can ignore the fact that Pospisil has won titles on the Challenger circuit and reached a number of other Finals.
I have noticed that Lacko's numbers have not taken a serious decline in main Tour matches compared with the overall numbers in the same manner as Pospisil's have. However it is the Canadian who has produced much better numbers overall in 2018 and I do think this is the kind of match up in which he can thrive even if Pospisil has not really reached the same heights he did a couple of years ago.
The serve is all important for Pospisil and he is facing an opponent who is breaking opponents at less than 20% of the time in 2018. Add in how much better Pospisil has been able to return when facing the lower Ranked players compared to those he sees on the main Tour and I do think Pospisil can edge out Lacko in this First Round encounter.
Anything other than a close match would be a real surprise to me, but I do give Pospisil enough of an edge to want to back him at the prices in this one.
Heather Watson + 3.5 games v Ekaterina Makarova: It has been a long time since I have backed Heather Watson with a start on the Handicap simply because the British player tends to be very over-rated. 2018 has been a real struggle for Watson and she hasn't won a lot of matches which makes it hard to really trust her, but winning three Qualifiers has to stand her in good stead in the First Round.
The three wins came in dominant fashion which bodes well for Watson, but this is a big step up in class for her. Watson's drop down the World Rankings means she has not been able to play in either of the Premier Events in Canada or Cincinnati which were run over the last three weeks, but reaching a Final in an ITF tournament on the hard courts will certainly help the confidence of the player.
Watson is not as good as Ekaterina Makarova, but the Russian has yet to really put together some consistent performances after returning from an injury. She has been able to produce decent first serves and her return game is superior to the one that Watson will bring into the match, but the second serve is where Watson has to make some hay if she is going to produce the upset.
Makarova has played well in her last couple of tournaments in Cincinnati and New Haven, but the courts play much quicker in Cincinnati than they do in New York. That may mean Watson's decent defensive skills can help her cause some problems for Makarova as long as the British player is able to at least put some solid service games on the board.
I really feel that is a key for this entire match- Watson is not a great server, but her first serve can put her on the front foot and she has to make sure she gets enough of those in to keep Makarova under pressure. Doing that could give Watson the chance to at least steal a set and that may be enough for her to get within this number.
Watson will have her chances to win this match if she is able to get the better of the Makarova second serve, but I am simply looking for her to keep this competitive and ride the momentum of her Qualifier wins into the main draw.
Anastasija Sevastova - 2.5 games v Donna Vekic: On first glance I expected to see Anastasija Sevastova an even stronger favourite to win this First Round match against Donna Vekic than she is at the layers. After researching into this one nothing has changed and I do expect the Seeded player to move through to the Second Round after a strong performance at the US Open in 2017.
It has been a mixed month on the hard courts for Sevastova who reached the Quarter Final in Montreal and was then beaten very early in Cincinnati. However the conditions in New York are probably closer to Montreal than Cincinnati so I am not too concerned by the early defeat in the second of the Premier Events that were played on the hard courts this month.
Sevastova has produced some decent numbers on both the serve and return on the hard courts, but I do think she is a player that struggles to really break through against the top names. The second serve needs some work as it does for many players on the WTA Tour, but Sevastova has a decent first serve and backs that up with a strong return game which is expected to give her opponent some troubles.
Donna Vekic had a mixed few weeks on the hard courts too having reached the Final in Washington and coming within a point of winning the title but then failing to Qualify for the Cincinnati main draw. The 11-10 record on the hard courts may not show it, but the 22 year old has made some slight improvements in her overall numbers on the surface in 2018 compared with 2017 but I am not convinced that is enough to challenge Sevastova.
The numbers are stronger against top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts in 2018 compared with 2017, but they are still not convincing numbers and I do think Sevastova can continue her dominance of this match up. Sevastova has beaten Vekic in all three previous matches which have all been played on the hard courts, while the Latvian's last two wins have come at the US Open in 2017 and Doha in 2018 in straight sets.
It feels that is the most likely outcome of this one too and I will back Sevastova to cover the number in a win.
MY PICKS: Jack Sock - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov @ 2.30 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Denis Kudla @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Vasek Pospisil @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Heather Watson + 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Anastasija Sevastova - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
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