Canadian Masters Tennis Picks 2018 (August 9th)

I warned that I didn't want to have a poor day to follow up a very strong Tuesday, but that is what happened on Wednesday with some tough luck losses to knock back the weekly totals.

There are some players that I have put aside as being untrustworthy, but it was just one of those days and I am looking for a quick bounce back on Thursday as we move into the Third Round matches at the Canadian Masters.

Rain has affected the play in the first few days in Toronto and Montreal, but it looks an overall clearer day on Thursday and hopefully the tournaments will get back on track for the week.


Sloane Stephens - 3.5 games v Carla Suarez Navarro: One of the main aspects of Sloane Stephens' game over the last twelve months is that she has shown she is a player that can really pick up her confidence when she puts a couple of wins together in tournaments.

It has helped her win the US Open and the Miami Premier Event while also reaching the Final in the French Open and now Stephens goes into the hard court swing when she should be playing on her best surface.

The draw could really open up for Stephens if she is able to win this match, but she has to respect Carla Suarez Navarro who has had to come through the Qualifiers. The Spaniard has benefited from a couple of retirements too which means I am not worried about any fatigue issues, and she has been a tough player to crack even on the hard courts in 2018.

However Stephens has previously got the better of Suarez Navarro and I think she is the slightly better returner of the two players and also has the more reliable serve.

That could be the difference in this match and I think the American can be backed to move through to the Quarter Final with a good looking win over Suarez Navarro on Thursday.


Petra Kvitova - 3.5 games v Kiki Bertens: I've not had a lot of success opposing Kiki Bertens over the last couple of months as she has found a way to win matches on surfaces that she has not impressed on.

The run at Wimbledon on the grass courts really came out of left field, while Bertens has an average record on the hard courts and her numbers have not been very strong either.

However you have to respect the two wins Bertens has produced this week in emphatic style including the crushing of Karolina Pliskova. This time she takes on another Czech player but one who has been very confident on the hard courts all season and who has also had a dominant win in the Montreal draw.

Petra Kvitova will have been very disappointed with how her Wimbledon challenge failed to get off the ground, but she may be one of the favourites to win the title at the US Open. She has won a title on the hard courts already in 2018 and Kvitova has some very impressive numbers on the surface which can give her every chance to win this match.

Much will depend on how well she is able to get a hold of the Bertens second serve, but I do like Kvitova's chances of being able to have enough success against that shot which will give her the edge in this match.


Maria Sharapova - 2.5 games v Caroline Garcia: The last match to be played in Montreal on Thursday looks a very good one between Maria Sharapova and Caroline Garcia.

It has to be said the Sharapova return to the main Tour fifteen months ago has not exactly gone the way the Russian would have wanted. Injury issues have been a problem for her, while her consistency has not reached a level that would have been desired by her and that has meant Sharapova has struggled to return to the top 20 of the World Rankings.

Her hard court performances have tended to be much better as this surface gives Sharapova the chance to set her feet and hit through the court. On other surfaces the Russian may have struggled with her movement or consistency in longer rallies, while I also think facing someone like Caroline Garcia gives Sharapova a good rhythm to play against.

Garcia has yet to fulfil the potential that so many believed the Frenchwoman has and she has not been at her best on the hard courts. That is a worry for her in the next few weeks as the preparation for the US Open and last Grand Slam of the season is played and I do think Garcia will find herself coming up short against the better players on the Tour.

Sharapova can serve well enough to keep the pressure on Garcia for much of this match and I think she will edge out this opponent as she moves through to the Quarter Final. Backing Sharapova to cover the number looks the play.


Grigor Dimitrov - 1.5 games v Francis Tiafoe: I backed both of these players earlier in the week with success, but I have to go with the Bulgarian in this Third Round match.

The numbers the two players have produced on the hard courts are very similar, but Grigor Dimitrov has the slightly superior serving stats which is why I am siding with him.

As well as Francis Tiafoe has played, I have to say that he is still finding his consistency as he moves up to the top level of the ATP. The American has won a title in Delray Beach which has to be respected, but his inconsistencies have been highlighted in the last couple of weeks on the hard courts.

On the other hand Dimitrov has really struggled in 2018 to back up the ATP World Tour Finals win at the end of 2017.

He can be tough to trust with some of the losses he has suffered and much of that is down to a poor return game. Dimitrov's numbers have dropped significantly on that side of his game in 2018 compared with the last couple of years on the hard courts and that has been the main reason he struggled in the last couple of tournaments on this surface.

The win over Fernando Verdasco has to give him more belief though and I think he will edge out Tiafoe in this Third Round match and reach a first Quarter Final on an outdoor hard court since Dimitrov did the same at the Australian Open.


Alexander Zverev - 4.5 games v Daniil Medvedev: The late finish in Toronto saw Daniil Medvedev get the better of Felix Auger Aliassime in a tight match, but the concern for the young Russian is that he may have left something on the court ahead of this Third Round match.

It has already been a long tournament for Medvedev having come through the Qualifiers and he has needed three sets to see off both Jack Sock and Aliassime in the draw so far.

The potential fatigue issue is one that can't be ignored especially as Medvedev is stepping up the level of opposition he is facing in the Third Round when he takes on Washington winner Alexander Zverev. The German continues to show he is very capable of performing at the highest level outside of the Grand Slam events and Zverev is looking for a Washington/Canada double for the second year in a row.

There wasn't any hint of tiredness in Zverev's strong Second Round win over Bradley Klahn. Aside from a tight win over brother Mischa last week in Washington, Alexander has been in fine form over the last ten days and his numbers suggest he is going to put Medvedev under some considerable pressure throughout this one.

Zverev has been very strong on the serve which should keep Medvedev from building up too much momentum, while he has also shown improvement on the return side of things. The break percentage has gone up from 2017 to 2018 on the hard courts and I do think Zverev can beat Medvedev for a fourth straight time.

They did play a really tight match in Miami earlier this season and one that Medvedev should have arguably won. However he may be a little more fatigued for this match and I will back Zverev to cover a very big number.


Rafael Nadal - 4.5 games v Stan Wawrinka: There is some hope that Stan Wawrinka could be turning around his 2018 season having struggled to find any consistency after returning from a serious knee injury. Unlike Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and now Novak Djokovic it has been a much longer road to recovery for Wawrinka but back to back wins in Toronto will have given him some confidence.

However a closer look at the numbers produced against Nick Kyrgios and Marton Fucsovics shows that there is still some way to go for Wawrinka especially when it comes to challenging the very best players on the Tour.

Both Kyrgios and Fucsovics may feel they should have beaten Wawrinka who dropped the first set in both matches by the same 6-1 score. While he was able to battle back and win those matches, Wawrinka won't be ignorant of the fact that a similar start against Rafael Nadal will not likely end with a positive result.

Wawrinka is still getting enough pop out of the serve to have some successes against Nadal, but his return game has really been struggling for any consistency in 2018. He has won less than 35% of return points in each of his his two wins this week and now faces Nadal who has been serving well throughout 2018.

The other factor which makes Nadal very dangerous for Wawrinka is that the Spaniard possesses one of the better return games out there. Nadal will play every point hard and he has slightly better return numbers on the hard courts in 2018 than in 2017 when he won the US Open, although the sample size is also much smaller with this being the second hard court tournament Nadal has taken part in this season.

Nadal has a considerable edge when it comes to the head to head and I am not sure Wawrinka is really fit enough to compete for long enough. Backing Nadal to win and cover this number looks the call and you can back that at a decent enough price at Boyle Sports.

MY PICKS: Sloane Stephens - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Maria Sharapova - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Boyle Sports (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 8-6, + 2.84 Units (28 Units Staked, + 10.14% Yield)