Tennis Picks 2018 (August 1st)

After the glorious British summer we have been experiencing, and continue to experience, it is frustrating to see all the rain in Washington which is taking its toll on the ATP and WTA event being played there.

To be fair, Tuesday was a much clearer day which has allowed the majority of matches to be completed, but there are expected to be more rain delays on Wednesday and the rest of the week there.

At least the other events being played in Kitzbuhel, Los Cabos and San Jose look to be getting through the schedule as they would like ahead of the move to Canada and the first of two Masters events to be played before the US Open commences.


It has been a frustrating time for the players, but also a frustrating time for the Tennis Picks which opened the week with a 0-4 start. Thankfully there were signs of getting things turned back around later on Tuesday with three winners from four matches played in Washington, and we also have Alexander Zverev 6-2 up in the first set against Malek Jaziri although I hate matches that have the rain break which can see momentum shift very quickly.

Wednesday offers up a large amount of Second Round matches and the selections I have made can be read below.


Dusan Lajovic - 3.5 games v Dennis Novak: After getting through the tough Qualifiers and reaching the Third Round at Wimbledon for a career best performance, Dennis Novak will be a more familiar face in his home tournament in Kitzbuhel these days.

However it is clear that there is still some big improvements the 24 year old can make if he is really going to become a feature on the main Tour in the years ahead. The World Ranking points earned at Wimbledon and winning a First Round match here will give Novak the chance to enter bigger tournaments in the months ahead, although he still has work to do to crack the top 100.

The performances on clay have not been too bad in 2018, but Novak is going to be challenged by someone who is playing very well on the surface and I think Dusan Lajovic will be able to edge him out in straight sets.

Novak will be the new Austrian Number 2 at the end of this week, but his numbers on the clay are not as strong as Lajovic's and that is despite the latter playing mainly on the ATP Tour compared with Novak's time spent on the Challenger circuit. Lajovic has been very strong behind his serve and he has made a small improvement on his return of serve which has paid off for him.

Has Lajovic been overachieving? Maybe a little bit, but his form has remained strong going back onto the clay courts this past month and I like him to win this with a break more in each set of a straight sets victory.


Matteo Berrettini - 2.5 games v Radu Albot: Winning the first Singles and Doubles titles of his career last week will have given Matteo Berrettini a bunch of confidence, but the question is how much tennis does he have left in the tank?

The fight shown to come back and beat Gilles Simon in the First Round in Kitzbuhel suggests the Italian is not going to roll over for anyone and he did crush Radu Albot on his way to success in Gstaad last week.

Berrettini did not drop a set in Gstaad, but it is playing the Doubles and having success in that tournament too which may have drained the energy levels. That has to be the biggest fear in backing him this week in Kitzbuhel, although Berrettini may feel this is an important time to build up his Ranking points which will offer him direct entry into the Masters events in the months ahead.

Albot did crush Josef Kovalik in the First Round, who had tremendous success last week too, but his clay court numbers are simply not on the level of what Berrettini can produce. The serve is one that the Italian had a lot of success against last week when they played in the First Round in Gstaad and the Italian has a serve of his own which can be very effective for him.

It should be the case at this level and backing Berrettini off the same mark as last week is my selection even with the fatigue issues to consider.


Mischa Zverev - 2.5 games v Tim Smyczek: These two players meet for the second week in a row on the Tour and I think Mischa Zverev has enough to frank the victory he had over Tim Smyczek in Atlanta last week. Even though he needed three sets to get the job done, Zverev was the better player on the day and should really have won much more comfortably than it turned out to be on the scoreboard.

Even then it was relatively straight forward for Zverev who could be in line to face brother Alexander in the next Round if both are able to progress through their Second Round matches on Wednesday.

Smyczek is a solid veteran of the Tour and can blow hot and cold which makes him potentially dangerous for an erratic player like Zverev. The key for the German is going to be how well he can serve on the day with that side of his game struggling on the hard courts so far in 2018, although this time of the season tends to be faster than earlier in the campaign.

He put enough pressure on Smyczek last week to believe in his serve, and Zverev has actually been returning pretty effectively which saw him create 17 break points against the American in Atlanta. That is another match to add to the 2018 calendar when Zverev has produced some of his more effective hard court returning games and could be the key here as he edges out Smyczek for a second week in a row.


Kyle Edmund - 1.5 games v Andy Murray: Most would have read Andy Murray was able to show the grit and determination which has helped him have so much success in his career in the First Round win over McKenzie McDonald in Washington. However Murray himself admitted he will have to be a lot better when he faces Kyle Edmund for the second time during his brief return to the Tour.

When they met on the grass in Eastbourne it was Edmund who dominated Murray and was able to underline his current place as the World Number 1. That is arguably on the weakest surface for Edmund, although the worry for him is that this is the first match back on the hard courts compared with Murray who has the win under his belt.

Edmund didn't have a good time in Indian Wells and Miami earlier this year with losses in his first match at both tournaments, but he is a capable hard court player and right now looks the better of the two Brits.

You can never underestimate Murray and I imagine he has been looking forward to playing Edmund again after being beaten so easily by him at Eastbourne. At this moment I am not sure Murray has enough tennis in his legs to really expect to get the better of Edmund and this is all about getting enough matches into the legs to take into the US Open at the end of the month.

The Edmund serve was a big weapon for him when he beat Murray in Eastbourne and he is a big returner when his eye is in. Again it is the first match on the surface which has to be a concern, but Edmund has that strong run in Australia to help himself ignore the losses in North America and I think he can win this one against the former World Number 1.


Steve Johnson - 2.5 games v Alex De Minaur: It was something of a surprise that Steve Johnson did not enter the Atlanta tournament last week but it may have been a time for the American to rest having won the title in Newport following Wimbledon.

The hard courts should be the surface on which Johnson has his most success and his 9-8 record does not indicate how well he has been performing. There have been some disappointing losses in matches Johnson should have won, but the serve continues to be a big weapon for him and he is returning about as well as ever on this surface.

The return game has always held Johnson back, but the numbers there have been strong enough to think he can get the better of Alex De Minaur in what is going to be their third match of the season.

Both have had a win apiece over the other and those wins have come on home soil for the two players with De Minaur winning in Brisbane and Johnson returning the favour in Irving. The Australian has taken in the hard court event in Atlanta and won a First Round match here which should be factored into things when you think Johnson is returning to the hard courts for the first time in a few months.

De Minaur has some strong 2018 hard court numbers, but the successes came very early in the year when playing in Australia. Since then it has been much tougher for him and there has been a noticeable drop in the service and return numbers since the end of the Australian Open.

That includes the heavy loss to Johnson and I think the latter can use the momentum he built in Newport to make a winning return to the hard courts on Wednesday.


Garbine Muguruza - 2.5 games v Victoria Azarenka: Prior to the injury problems, giving birth, and off court issues relating to custody of her son Victoria Azarenka was one of the top WTA players out there. Many would have assumed she would be leading the way for the next generation of players along with Garbine Muguruza and this match up could have been one which featured in multiple Grand Slam Finals in the years ahead.

Both have had their successes on the Tour, but it has been tough work for Azarenka on her return to the Tour following the clearing of the issues with the father of her baby. Her return has not come with the same discussions as to where she should be Seeded as it has with Serena Williams and that has meant a much tougher return for Azarenka.

She has played well but it is clear that Azarenka has yet to reach anything near the level she could play at when a regular on the Tour. It will come with time, but I think Garbine Muguruza can get the better of her here despite being one of the most erratic top players on the Tour.

The lack of matches since Wimbledon has to be a concern when looking to back Muguruza as is the tendency to blow hot and cold on a week to week basis on the Tour. When the Spaniard is good she is very good though and her numbers on the hard courts have been pretty impressive in 2018 which makes her one of the favourites going into the US Open.

The serve is a key weapon for Muguruza and if she is serving well I would expect her to win this match. While Azarenka is still a quality returner, her own serve can be attacked and so a strong display from Muguruza may be enough to beat the former World Number 1 for the first time.

It should be a quality match in the early hours of Thursday morning, but one I am edging towards Muguruza to get the better of Azarenka in.

MY PICKS: Dusan Lajovic - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Matteo Berrettini - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Mischa Zverev - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Kyle Edmund - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Steve Johnson - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 3-5, - 4.4 Units (16 Units Staked, - 27.5% Yield)