Cincinnati Masters Tennis Picks 2018 (August 15th)

The Masters tournaments that are played in the same week are very busy events and the Cincinnati Masters is no different.

Both the ATP and WTA event in Cincinnati will be playing the entire Second Round on the same day which means there are plenty of matches scheduled for Wednesday.

As is the case in every year, there is some significant chance of seeing rain during the tournament in Cincinnati and so there is a real chance that some of these matches scheduled won't be able to be completed. That isn't very fair to those players who will have to play twice on the same day to try and move through what is a big tournament outside of the Grand Slams and the last chance for the top names to really put some form together before the US Open begins.

There isn't much we can do about the weather, but these are the selections from Wednesday after a mixed Tuesday. It has at least maintained the positive number for the week, but I want to kick on and add to the start in the days ahead.


Pablo Carreno Busta - 2.5 games v Bradley Klahn: The court speed in Cincinnati should be one that is enjoyed by Bradley Klahn and he has shown he can perform by coming through the Qualifiers and also win a First Round match here. This is part of a good month on the US hard courts as Klahn was also able to Qualify for the Canadian Masters event last week and also won a First Round match there which is a huge boost to the World Ranking.

That all means Klahn should be back inside the top 100 of the World Rankings at the beginning of the US Open and the American is heading back towards his peak Ranking which was earned in 2014.

The service numbers will always make Klahn a threat to opponents but he has to find a way to really get something from the return which is more effective than what he has been able to produce so far. In general his return game is not that great, but that has particularly shown up when he has moved up to play main ATP Tour matches and will be a problem when it comes to making real moves up the World Rankings.

You would think that facing a server like Pablo Carreno Busta would give Bradley Klahn more of a chance to get into the return games, but the Spaniard has found some love for the hard courts over the last twelve months. A US Open Semi Finalist and reaching the same stage at the Miami Masters underlines that while Carreno Busta has been very good at protecting his serve on this service with an 83% hold percentage.

That number is significantly better than previous years and it makes Carreno Busta's life a little easier on the hard courts where he has continued to show his decent return game. Carreno Busta is winning almost 39% of points against the serve on the hard courts and I think it will be the return game which allows him to edge past the American player in this one.

I imagine it will be close considering how Klahn can serve, but I think Carreno Busta will find one more break of serve than his opponent and that should be enough to win and cover the number.


Kei Nishikori - 2.5 games v Stan Wawrinka: Both Kei Nishikori and Stan Wawrinka have been returning from injury problems in 2018, but the transition back to the main Tour has been a little smoother for the former. There have been some real signs that Stan Wawrinka is on the way back to the level we all know he can produce, but I do think his game is played with much less margin of error than many which means his consistency could take that much longer than the likes of Nishikori, Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer who have all bounced back from injury in recent years.

Wawrinka did produce a strong win over Diego Sebastian Schwartzman in the First Round in Cincinnati and you would think he would enjoy hitting through this court. He also won a couple of tough matches in Toronto last week before running into Rafael Nadal and Wawrinka was only narrowly beaten in that match, but there is still the question mark about his consistency.

Even the serve has not quite reached the level Wawrinka has produced on the hard courts in recent years, but that side of his game could be aided by the quicker conditions in Cincinnati. The real issue for Wawrinka has been the return game and he he has won just 32% of points against the serve on the hard courts in 2018, while that has translated to a poor break percentage.

Like Pablo Carreno Busta, no one will confuse Kei Nishikori with the big servers on the Tour, and that has to encourage Stan Wawrinka in this one.

However Nishikori has been just about good enough on that side of his game to think he can at least keep Wawrinka under pressure in this one. The key is to make sure he doesn't give Wawrinka the chance to see too many second serves, and that would give Nishikori a chance to get his superior return game going.

There is still some room for improvement for Nishikori too after an up and down 2018 coming back from injury, but he has played well enough on the hard courts to think he edges out his opponent. Nishikori wins almost 40% of points against the serve on this surface and that number is only slightly dented when you remove all the non-ATP main Tour events.

I don't think this will be anything but a competitive match, but I give Kei Nishikori enough of an edge to win this one and move past Stan Wawrinka.


Sloane Stephens - 5.5 games v Tatjana Maria: Twelve months ago Sloane Stephens made a couple of surprising runs in the Canadian and Cincinnati Premier Events after recently returning from a long lay off. Even then not many would have picked the American to go on and win the US Open.

Stephens has had some ups and downs since winning her maiden Grand Slam, but she has become a player who builds momentum within tournaments that can be very hard to stop. She won a big title in Miami earlier in 2018, the second biggest title of her career, and Stephens has since reached the French Open Final as well as the Canadian Premier Event Final last week.

Backing up big weeks can be difficult, but I think Stephens has been given a good chance to make a start when taking on Tatjana Maria in the Second Round. The American has had a few days off from the Sunday Final loss to Simona Halep in Montreal so I am not too worried about fatigue, while Stephens showed she can have two big weeks in a row by winning a Grand Slam title and also playing so well in Canada and Cincinnati in 2017.

Tatjana Maria has come through the Qualifiers and won a First Round match in the main draw which deserves a lot of respect. However that means she has played plenty of tennis in recent days and Maria has not produced strong numbers on the hard courts in 2018.

Those numbers take another decline when you only consider the main draw WTA tournaments she has played on the hard courts and Maria will have to hope Stephens is off her game here. Maria is 1-11 on the hard courts in main draw matches at the WTA level and she would have failed to get within this number in nine of those defeats.

There is no doubt that Stephens can sometimes be hard to trust, especially when it comes to covering these big numbers. However she would have done that in all four wins in Montreal last week and I will back the American to get off to a very strong start in Cincinnati.


Angelique Kerber - 2.5 games v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: The first time Angelique Kerber took to the court following her title win at Wimbledon saw her go down to a defeat to Alize Cornet in Montreal last week. That isn't the best preparation for the US Open and Kerber will need to get the better of an opponent who has given her plenty of trouble in the past if she is going to put some wins together before the last Grand Slam of the 2018 season begins.

Kerber and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova have won both six matches against the other in the past and it was the former who snapped a three match losing run to the Russian when beating her in Miami earlier this year.

Pavlyuchenkova has won a couple of matches on the hard courts in the last ten days which has improved her record to 4-7 on this surface in 2018. However you can't ignore the fact it has been a difficult season for the Russian player who has seen her percentage of points won on the second serve and her returning numbers drop from 2017 to 2018.

That has made it easier for opponents to get on top of her on the hard courts which should be Pavlyuchenkova's favoured surface. The very close defeat to Simona Halep last week has to give her some belief she can play against an opponent on the WTA Tour, but I think Kerber is perhaps going to be able to frustrate for long enough to extract errors even on the quicker Cincinnati surface.

You have to consider that Kerber has not had the best record at Cincinnati and that is despite reaching the Final here two years ago. The quicker conditions can make it tough to defend on this court as Kerber would like, but I think she will bounce back from the loss to Cornet last week and get the better of a player she did beat in Miami a few months ago.

Pavlyuchenkova's own recent record in Cincinnati is nothing to write home about and I will back the Wimbledon Champion to edge through to the Third Round.

MY PICKS: Pablo Carreno Busta - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Sloane Stephens - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Cincinnati Masters Update: 4-2, + 4.56 Units (12 Units Staked, + 38% Yield)