US Open Tennis Day 4 Picks 2018 (August 30th)

The US Open continues on Thursday and I have begun making my Tennis Picks from the remaining Second Round matches to be played.

Wednesday proved to be an up and down day with some successes and some very disappointing losses, but I won't get too down about the start made to this tournament for the Picks as I look to keep the momentum behind me.


I had written the majority of the Tennis Picks out prior to posting on Thursday, but I have also added two Picks that I have appealed. Those two can be seen in the MY PICKS section below.


Roger Federer - 7.5 games v Benoit Paire: I've not really focused on the very big names in tennis in the early part of the US Open because they tend to be asked to cover some very, very big numbers. So far the top men's players have managed to do that and I think Roger Federer can continue that trend when he takes on Benoit Paire in the Second Round.

These two did play a very close match on the grass in Halle a couple of months as Paire took his first set from Federer and had his opportunities to win the match. That will give the Frenchman some belief he can challenge Federer in this US Open match, although the surface has proven to be a tough one for Paire to master.

Paire had to dig deep to win his First Round match against Dennis Novak and even the four sets win doesn't tell the full story of how close that match was. There is no doubt the Frenchman will have to raise his game at least a couple of notches to make this a contest against Federer, but his numbers suggest it is going to be a very tall task for him.

In 2018 Paire is holding serve at just under 73% of times on the hard courts and his return game has not been effective enough to make up for that number. It did in the First Round against Novak, but now he faces Roger Federer who has produced even better numbers on the hard courts in 2018 than he has in the last couple of years.

Federer is holding serve at 93% which means Paire will not be able to battle back in sets like he did against Novak. The real question mark about Federer and his chance of winning the US Open comes from the return game as he has found issues in breaking serve compared to previous years even though the actual amount of return points won have not really slipped.

Playing the big points better is going to be the key for Federer, but he should be comfortable in a match up like this even though Paire pushed him close a couple of months ago. Covering a number like this one is difficult if Federer is missing out on the break points that come his way, but I do think he has usually been able to deal with the Paire ups and downs and I fancy he will win at least one set with a double break which should mean he can get over the current number.


Pablo Carreno Busta - 5.5 games v Joao Sousa: This tournament may be played on a hard court, but there will be a clay court kind of feel to the match played between Pablo Carreno Busta and Joao Sousa in the Second Round. Both players look to get into the rally and grind down opponents and it should be a fun match for the fans to enjoy.

The two players match up similarly with the serve expected to be something their opponents will look to attack, while both Carreno Busta and Sousa should be very comfortable on the ground.

Surprisingly the two players have some effective hard court numbers behind the serve which has helped them put more wins on the board than you imagine. To be fair to Carreno Busta he has shown he is very comfortable on the hard courts over the last twelve months and that all began by reaching the US Open Semi Final in 2017.

The Spaniard has a strong 17-7 record on the hard courts in 2018 and much of that is down to a very effective 84% hold percentage on the surface. That is a number that is significantly better than what Carreno Busta has been able to produce on the hard courts in previous years and he continues to back that up with a decent return game which has resulted in the wins being strung together.

Sousa has to be very happy with his own 80% hold percentage on the hard courts, while he has really surprised me by winning just over 65% of points played on his serve. It helped him beat veteran Marcel Granollers in the First Round without too many issues, but the one area where Carreno Busta has a big edge over Sousa is the break percentage and I feel that makes the difference between them in this Second Round match.

Carreno Busta's break percentage is up at 26% compared with Sousa's 19% on the hard courts and having the slightly stronger serving numbers too means the Spaniard is the right favourite. The spread is quite close to where I would have had it because Sousa is capable of taking a set at his best, but even with that in mind I can see Carreno Busta winning at least one set with a double break and that 6-1 or 6-2 set being the difference between a cover or not.


David Goffin - 5.5 games v Robin Haase: The shoulder injury suffered by David Goffin in the Cincinnati Semi Final looks to be behind him although one win at the US Open hasn't erased all my doubts about him. The last couple of years has seen Goffin pick up some injuries at really bad times but I still think he is capable of a deep run at the US Open as long as he is not feeling any soreness out of the First Round win.

The win over Federico Gaio was a little more difficult towards the back end than it had begun for Goffin, but ultimately he will be glad to have moved through to the Second Round in straight sets. The Belgian has produced some very good numbers on the hard court in 2018 which makes him a threat here, although the feeling is that Goffin will eventually run into someone who is a little too good for him.

I am not sure that will happen on Thursday as Robin Haase was forced to dig deep and come from 2-0 down in sets to win his First Round match. Haase's opponent McKenzie McDonald wilted towards the end of the match in some terrible conditions, but Haase still had to be out there and that would have taken something out of the tank.

It is David Goffin who has the slightly superior numbers when it comes to the serve and return on the hard courts too which only makes it even more difficult to imagine Haase beating him unless Goffin is not at 100%. However Haase could point to the 2-0 lead in sets he had at the French Open earlier in 2018 against Goffin before he completely lost his way in the match and perhaps the Dutchman believes he can hold himself together much better if he gets into that position again.

Ultimately this has proven to be a tough match up for Haase with Goffin able to get plenty of balls back in play and break down his game. There have been some close matches between them including that match at the French Open, but Goffin should have the slight edge in most aspects of this match and also had less time on the court in the heat of Tuesday.

All of those things factoring together makes me believe Goffin has too much for Haase and he should be able to cover this number even if he is forced to go four sets.


Richard Gasquet - 7.5 games v Laslo Djere: After failing to win a match on the hard courts since the very first tournament of 2018, Laslo Djere was the beneficiary of a Leonardo Mayer retirement in the First Round. He was in control of the match when the Argentinian decided to pull out, but I think he will need some more help if he is going to get past Richard Gasquet in the Second Round.

Gasquet is a competent hard court player, but injury issues and scheduling has meant he has only played sixteen matches on the surface in 2018. His 9-7 record is a little disappointing, but Gasquet looked to be in fine form in the First Round as he crushed Yuichi Sugita in straight sets and I do think he can back that up with another strong performance.

One of the disappointments for the Frenchman has to be his sub-80% hold percentage on the hard courts as that really does ramp up the pressure in trying to win matches. The second serve numbers are slightly down on 2017 which has contributed to the hold percentage slipping from 81% to 78% in 2017 to 2018, but Gasquet's hold numbers are still way up on Laslo Djere's and there is a real difference in the return numbers which is likely going to be the difference between the players on the day.

While Djere has struggled with his return game on the hard courts, Gasquet has been pretty effective and it should show up here when you consider the Serb's service numbers are average at best. With Djere having a break percentage of 12% and Gasquet's standing at over double that at 26% I would expect the latter to have the majority of break points and he should be able to secure a set by at least a double break advantage.

That is a key to covering a number as big as this one in this Second Round match and I do think Gasquet can do that. He will need to serve a little better than he has for much of 2018, but the confidence of his performance from the First Round should be able to carry over and lead to a relatively serene progress through to the next Round.


Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 games v Vera Zvonareva: She may not be flying under the radar as much as she would have been if not for a very strong run on the hard courts over the last month, but Aryna Sabalenka can continue to make an impact on the Tour with a big showing at the US Open.

In the last couple of weeks Sabalenka has reached the Semi Final in Cincinnati and won a title in New Haven which had a decent field attached to it. The run in Cincinnati saw Sabalenka win some tight matches as she played her tennis without any hint of fear, but she was much more dominant in taking the title home in New Haven and I do think she is the big Belarusian threat in the draw.

Over the last month it is the serve which has been a huge weapon for Sabalenka and I expect that to be the case in the Second Round when she plays veteran Vera Zvonareva who is still finding her best tennis after returning from an injury which has bothered her for two or three years.

This year the majority of Zvonareva's time has been spent below the main WTA level but she showed toughness to come through her First Round match. The last two sets were very tight and I do wonder if that is going to have sapped some energy as she heads into a match with a big hitting player who will look to get after Zvonareva wherever she can.

The Zvonareva return game has always been a key part of her successes on the Tour, but she is going to be in for a challenge dealing with the Sabalenka serve. I expect the Russian will have some success, but ultimately I also think she will be under immense pressure whenever she serves considering the Zvonareva struggles behind that shot.

With that in mind I do think Sabalenka will be able to get the better of her in this match and I expect the younger player will produce a good looking win on the scoreboard. She looks fresher, has lots of momentum behind her and Sabalenka has the power to go through Zvonareva and I will back her to cover the number in her win.


Monica Puig + 3.5 games v Caroline Garcia: You have to be impressed with the way Caroline Garcia dismissed the challenge of Johanna Konta in the First Round although I am still of the belief that the British player is not at 100%. This is a different sort of test for Garcia as she faces a player she has never beaten and who got the better of her in New Haven just a few days ago.

Monica Puig won the Olympic Gold Medal in 2016 but she has not been able to find the consistency to become a regular name at the back end of Grand Slam tournaments. She is still only 24 years old and so can fulfil the potential she has, but Puig has to be disappointed she has not made it past the Second Round in any of the last nine Grand Slams she has played.

Last week she did reach the Semi Final in New Haven before having to pull out with an injury and that could have spelt the end of her US Open hopes before they began. However it sounds like the withdrawal was more of a precaution than a real issue and Puig showed no signs of any problems by securing a double bagel in her First Round win.

The head to head with Garcia has to give her real confidence with three wins against her and all of those coming on this surface. However the last two wins have been much closer with a final set needed and Puig may be considered slightly fortunate to have beaten the Frenchwoman last week.

The numbers produced by the two over the course of 2018 on the hard courts suggest this is going to be another very close match and I would not be surprised if we needed a final set decider again. That did tempt me into backing this match to surpass the total games line, but instead I think backing Puig with the start of games looks the right play.

A strong serving day from Puig will give her every chance of earning the upset too, but I will keep the games on my side as they could be a real difference maker in what feels a very close match.

MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 7.5 Games @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Pablo Carreno Busta - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
David Goffin - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 7.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Monica Puig + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jelena Ostapenko - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Ajla Tomljanovic @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)

US Open Update: 14-6, + 15.12 Units (40 Units Staked, + 37.80% Yield)