US Open Day 9 Picks 2018 (September 4th)

The last few days have been all about spending time with family and that has meant intense sessions at the bar and so I have not been able to commit to the research time you need for the US Open Tennis Picks.

The last few days are much more manageable at the tournament as we reach the last eight in both the men's and women's events and some of the names do make surprising reading.

Roger Federer's exit on Monday in the Fourth Round was a huge surprise, but the men's draw still has some real quality matches to come before we find out the winning player.

In the women's draw I imagine Serena Williams is a strong favourite to win the first Grand Slam since returning from giving birth, although I think there are still some big obstacles to overcome.

All in all it looks like we are in for a fascinating end to the US Open, the final Grand Slam of the 2018 season, and hopefully one I can wrap up with a number of winners.


I have analysed the two men's matches to be played on Tuesday below, but I will simply add the selections from the women's Quarter Final matches.


Juan Martin Del Potro-John Isner over 42.5 games: A former US Open, Juan Martin Del Potro is rounding into some very dangerous form at the 2018 tournament. He has breezed through the draw to reach the Quarter Final and Del Potro is a strong favourite to see off John Isner.

I am guessing that has something to do with the significant more time Isner has spent on the court compared with Del Potro, but rule out the American at your peril.

As convincingly as Del Potro was able to see off Isner at the French Open, it is Isner who has won their last two matches on the hard courts. One of those came in Miami earlier this year and Isner is serving big enough to cause problems for any opponent he faces in the draw.

The run to the Wimbledon Semi Final will make Isner believe he can produce his best tennis at clutch times in this Quarter Final and there should be a great atmosphere for both players to enjoy. The Del Potro serve has proven to be a huge weapon for him in the tournament too and I can see both players really looking to rely on their serves to get through games with as little fuss as possible.

It is the recent head to head that provides some doubt around Del Potro's ability to win this match. For all intents and purposes it should be a close match with tie-breakers involved and both players should be able to win at least one set.

Doing that means it would be a surprise if the total games in this Quarter Final is not surpassed and I will look for that to be the outcome of this one.


Rafael Nadal - 5.5 games v Dominic Thiem: This hasn't been a vintage run to the Quarter Final for Rafael Nadal, but the World Number 1 is a real danger to anyone he faces now that he is here. The knee issue that looked to be bothering him earlier in the tournament didn't crop up in his Fourth Round win and I think Nadal can get the better of Dominic Thiem.

I am a big fan of the Austrian, but this is the time of the season when all the tennis he schedules for himself in the first six months of the year usually come back to haunt him. An injury meant an enforced rest going into the US Open and the early defeat in Toronto certainly helped in that regard.

Thiem was a dominant winner over 2017 Runner Up Kevin Anderson, but this is a different test for him as he faces Nadal for the first time on a hard court. He has been able to test Nadal on the clay courts and holds wins over him, but the Grand Slam meetings at the French Open have been dominated by the Spaniard.

I do think this will be a competitive Quarter Final but I also think Nadal is likely to have a bit more in the tank. He has yet to really hit his peak level at the US Open but the defending Champion might like the kind of match up he has against Thiem especially if he can frustrate this opponent early on.

This is a big number, but I like Nadal's chances of winning and covering.

MY PICKS: Juan Martin Del Potro-John Isner Over 42.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 5.5 Games @ 2.20 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Sloane Stephens - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova + 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

US Open Update: 20-15, + 8.04 Units (60 Units Staked, + 13.40% Yield)