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Friday, 28 September 2018

Boxing Picks 2018- George Groves vs Callum Smith (September 28th)

September has been a very good month for Boxing fans with a couple of very good main events over the last two weekends, but there is plenty more excitement to come in the months leading up to Christmas.

First this month comes to a close with the conclusion of the World Boxing Super Series Season One with the Final of the Super Middleweight tournament taking place in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia on Friday.

It is an all British Final too which will have built up some anticipation back home, but I do think some of the hype has been missing because the fight is taking place on foreign soil. If this had been at the O2 Arena or Manchester Arena in the United Kingdom it would have been a huge occasion, but the money in Saudi Arabia could not be ignored and especially not when the Cruiserweight Final rumoured for Jeddah took place in Moscow.

Local customs means the Final will take place on Friday rather than Saturday as would be the norm, but there are other decent fights taking place this weekend with the likes of Joe Joyce, Jorge Linares and James DeGale in action. Any Boxing Picks from those fights will be added to this thread.


This past week we have also had confirmation of two fights I am very much looking forward to- the first is in Manchester between Oleksandr Usyk and Tony Bellew and the second is the big Heavyweight fight between Deontay Wilder and Tyson Fury which has been confirmed for Los Angeles.

It's a very good time to be a Boxing fan to say the least.

And if the rumours are to be believed, there could be at least two more huge fights put together before the end of the year while the start of the Second Season of the World Boxing Super Series is also just a week away.


Last week was another good one for the Boxing Picks with more positive gains made, although it was close to being a huge week if David Price's bicep could have lasted one more Round. His health is obviously more important, but it is another setback for Price although I would expect to see the Liverpudlian back in the ring in 2019.

Hopefully we can keep the positive September gains going through another week with the selections from this weekend's fights.


Chris Eubank Jr vs JJ McDonagh
It is something of a surprise that Chris Eubank Jr has spent so long out of the ring after losing his grudge fight with George Groves in the World Boxing Super Series Semi Final.

He looked to have come out of that fight in better health than the winner, but Eubank Jr's confidence would have been dented and I am guessing he just needed some time to reevaluate where he was heading.

The rumour is that Eubank Jr and James DeGale could be meeting in a grudge fight in December with both fighters in action this weekend. If they both win that could be a fight that is announced next week and I do think this is nothing more than Eubank Jr getting some rust out of himself.

I am sure JJ McDonagh isn't heading to Saudi Arabia to make up the numbers and he is talking a very good game. However this is a huge step up for the Irishman and he i going to have to display some toughness if he is going to give Eubank Jr some Rounds in this one.

There is nothing on the record to suggest McDonagh is going to be able to secure the upset and I think this may be a showcase fight for Eubank Jr. He should be able to let his hands go and I think that could see him end the fight relatively early with the referee perhaps jumping in to stop things.

I do think McDonagh can tough out the first couple of Rounds, but Eubank Jr may keep the fast hands going and earn the stoppage in either Round 3 or Round 4 which is worth a small interest.


George Groves vs Callum Smith
Where the Cruiserweight World Boxing Super Series tournament crowned an undisputed Champion and one who looks to be going on to much bigger things, the Super Middleweight tournament did not have all the belts on the line.

However the tournament has gained such a traction over the last twelve months that Ring Magazine are putting their belt on the winner which means either George Groves or Callum Smith will be considered the Number 1 Super Middleweight in the world.

That will open the door for some huge fights with the likes of James DeGale and Rocky Fielding being considered for December, but neither Groves or Smith can afford to look over this Final.

George Groves has the experience and the superior wins in his career, while also being involved in much bigger fights and occasions than Smith. The only real doubt around the WBA Champion is the shoulder injury he suffered in the win over Chris Eubank Jr in the Semi Final and whether that is fully healed or whether Groves goes into this Final with some doubts.

It is a worry because it was a very bad injury, but Groves has sounded pretty content with his recovery.

A couple of years ago I was pretty high on Callum Smith as the best of a strong fighting family. He looked to be progressing very well but he has underwhelmed in the World Boxing Super Series and that despite not facing top quality opposition either.

I do think Smith will be motivated in this one and that a lack of motivation may have contributed to sub par performances. However I am not convinced he is making weight as well as he would like and this is a big step up on anyone he has faced in his career.

The win over Rocky Fielding looks much better since the latter won a World Title, but Smith has not progressed as I would have liked to have seen since then. The lack of experience of fighting someone of the quality of Groves could come out here and I like the veteran to produce one more good win before contemplating his next move in his career.

It is possible Groves still hits hard enough to earn a stoppage, but the most likely outcome feels like the veteran using his wiles to do enough to pile up the Rounds and eventually be awarded the Unanimous Decision. Both fighters could then consider a move up to Light-Heavyweight, but I think Smith will come again like Groves did after losing his first three Title challenges.

MY PICKS: Chris Eubank Jr Win Between 3-4 @ 6.50 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
George Groves @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Boxing 2018 Update: 27-47, + 12.44 Units (113 Units Staked, + 11.01% Yield)

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