College Football Week 2 Picks 2018 (September 8th)

I didn't have any time to do the necessary research for the Week 1 slate of games in College Football so my season will begin here.

The last two weeks have been hectic to say the least but I am ready for what is bound to be another exciting season which will culminate in another strong National Championship Game.

The Play Offs have been a real success and I would not be surprised if we hear more and more voices suggesting it should be increased to six or eight teams in the years ahead. That could come about if we have another team outside of the Power 5 Conferences who have gone unbeaten but never looked like being invited to challenge for the National Championship.

The UCF Knights were quick to announce themselves as the 'real' Champions after beating Auburn in their Bowl Game to complete an unbeaten season. That was an Auburn team who had beaten both Alabama and Georgia during the course of the 2017 season, the two teams who eventually played for all the marbles, and so talk of expanding the Play Offs are never going to be far away.


It is a long way until we get down to seeing the selection the four teams who will make the Play Offs and it is clear that teams have recognised the importance of strengthening their schedules. We have some very big non-Conference games over the first month of the season and winning those can be so important and make up for any slip ups made by teams as they look to manoeuvre themselves into a Play Off spot.

Like I am going to do with my NFL Picks this season, I am planning to write up between five and seven games every week and then add the the additional picks from any week to the 'MY PICKS' selection below.

Hopefully Week 2 gets the 2018 season off to a positive beginning.


Georgia Bulldogs @ South Carolina Gamecocks Pick: The SEC gave us the two contenders for the National Championship in the 2017 season but the defending SEC Champions Georgia Bulldogs came up a little short in their defeat to the Alabama Crimson Tide in Overtime of the Championship Game.

With only four teams given a shot at making the Play Offs, it is hard to imagine too many situations like last year when two teams from one Conference were asked to compete. That puts pressure on teams to not drop any silly games and the Georgia Bulldogs have remained the team to beat in the SEC East Division.

Have no doubt that it won't be easy for the Bulldogs to repeat as SEC East Winners let alone SEC Champions and this game at the South Carolina Gamecocks is a huge early test for them.

Both teams are coming off blow out wins against overmatched opponents and Will Muschamp and Kirby Smart will be well aware of how much better their respective teams will need to be if they are going to win this big game played at the Williams-Brice Stadium.

The Gamecocks have had three relatively lean years before finishing 9-4 last season and winning their first Bowl Game since 2014. Muschamp is rebuilding his reputation having faltered as the Head Coach of the Florida Gators, and he has an experienced team with 14 returning starters and also some very good recruiting which makes South Carolina very dangerous in the SEC East.

This could be the best team Muschamp has had and the expectations match that with a huge atmosphere expected in the Stadium on Saturday. The key to the outcome of the game has to be how the South Carolina Defensive unit is able to slow down the Georgia Offensive unit which has returned 8 of their starters from a season ago and now have an experienced Jake Fromm leading them from Quarter Back.

The two star Running Backs have moved to the NFL, but the Offensive Line was a huge aid for Sonny Michel and Nick Chubb and so Georgia are not expected to have a real drop on that side of their Offense. It will be tough for South Carolina's Defensive Line to slow them down and that should mean Fromm is going to have some real success throwing into a Secondary that is not one of the better ones in the SEC.

It would be a real surprise if Georgia didn't get their points here having averaged over 35 points per game over the course of 2017. However South Carolina are very much loaded Offensively too and they will feel they can capitalise on some of the inexperience Georgia have on the Defense which at least gives them a chance to keep this close.

8 starters returning and both Rico Dowdle at Running Back and Deebo Samuel at Wide Receiver staying healthy would give South Carolina a real chance to have their highest points per game since 2014. Kirby Smart is a very strong Defensive mind which should mean Georgia won't slip too far despite losing a number of starters from the Defensive unit, but I do think South Carolina can surpass the 10 points they were limited to last year in their 24-10 defeat to Georgia.

That came between the hedges in Athens and this time South Carolina look to have the tools to keep this one closer. In the last few years the Gamecocks are 9-3 against the spread as the home underdog and getting a double digit start looks like plenty of points in this one.

Georgia have to be respected as one of the better teams to back to cover the spread in the last two years under Smart, but the Gamecocks look improved and Will Muschamp can limit the Bulldogs just enough for the home team to cover even if they were to be beaten.


Colorado Buffaloes @ Nebraska Cornhuskers Pick: A new era has begun in Lincoln where Scott Frost will be making his first appearance at home as the new Nebraska Cornhuskers Head Coach. Frost takes over from Mike Riley who had two losing records in three years with Nebraska and the new Head Coach has built his reputation by guiding the UCF Knights to an unbeaten season in 2017 which included a Bowl win over the Auburn Tigers.

This is only the third year Frost will be a Head Coach in College Football, but he will be well received in Nebraska where he was the Quarter Back in 1997 as the Cornhuskers won the National Title.

Lightning strikes meant the opening game of the season versus Akron was cancelled and getting Nebraska back to a Bowl won't be easy for Frost considering they have what many have called one of the top ten toughest schedules in College Football this year. Losing a winnable game like the one they had against the Zips makes getting to 6 wins that much more difficult for the Cornhuskers, although they do have 15 returning starters and the expectation is simply to surpass the 4 wins they earned in 2017.

Getting Nebraska back on track Offensively is the first port of call for Frost who really aided the UCF Knights in his two years in Florida. Adrian Martinez may not have any experience at Quarter Back at this level, but Nebraska have some quality players around him Offensively and the Frost factor is expected to help them improve all around.

The immediate test comes against the Colorado Buffaloes who allowed just 13 points in their crushing win over rivals Colorado State in Week 1 and who have 6 returning starters. While they will be better than 2017, the Buffaloes may still have some trouble shutting down this Nebraska team who will have been itching to get onto the field for one whole week.

It is expected that Nebraska will have success both on the ground and through the air although Martinez will be under pressure at Quarter Back to look after the ball too. That becomes more important when seeing how Colorado scored points last week and the potential for this one to become something of a shoot out.

Colorado finished 5-7 in 2017 because they struggled on both sides of the ball and the Offensive unit is expected to be better simply because of the underachievement. They have lost some key players, but they have kept their experience at Quarter Back with Steven Montez the starter again and the Buffaloes looked effective through the air and on the ground last week.

However the Cornhuskers are expected to be far better Defensively compared with 2017 too and that could be an interesting battle when the two units face each other. It is the trenches where the Cornhuskers may have enough of an edge to force Colorado to turn to Montez more than they had to last week when finding great balance in the Offensive performance.

This is an old rivalry which will get the fans pumped up too and I do give a very slight edge to Nebraska on both sides of the ball. As long as they don't shoot themselves in the foot with a number of turnovers, I like the Cornhuskers to win this one by around a Touchdown even if they have been a very poor home favourite to back to cover numbers for a few years now.

A first home game for the new Head Coach and the number of starters returning means Nebraska can give Scott Frost the perfect start ahead of a very tough run towards the bye week at the end of October.


Kentucky Wildcats @ Florida Gators Pick: This is the second of the SEC East games being played on Saturday in Week 2 of the 2018 season and the Florida Gators are a big favourite as they protect one of the longest winning runs against the same opponent in the nation. The Gators narrowly beat the Kentucky Wildcats on the road in 2017 to make it 31 straight wins over them although the Wildcats are not heading to 'The Swamp' with any less confidence that this could be their year to break the stranglehold.

It is a new era in Florida with Dan Mullen coming in as the new Head Coach after a superb time as the Mississippi State Bulldogs Head Coach. The Gators hammered an overmatched opponent last week, but the performance was so good that they have moved into the top 25 of the Rankings and many feel they could be the closest challenger to the Georgia Bulldogs in this Division.

Many would have been surprised to see Florida make the decision to fire Jim McElwain as the Head Coach after he guided the Gators to 19 wins in his first two seasons which came with back to back SEC East titles. Last season it went backwards for the Gators who had a myriad of suspended players and ended up with a 4-7 season and the decision to replace the Head Coach with Dan Mullen who was the Offensive Co-Ordinator here before his long stint with Mississippi State.

19 returning starters means Florida are in a strong position to not only return to Bowl eligibility but also challenge for another SEC East title. There will also be a real belief Florida can extend their winning run against Kentucky who did not perform that well before pulling away from the Central Michigan Chippewas in Week 1.

The Wildcats have kept their Defensive unit intact from last year which makes them a tough out considering they were improved on 2016 and now have another year of experience underneath their belts. Much will depend on whether the Defensive Line can take another step upwards when facing SEC level opponents although winning in the trenches won't be easy against this Florida Offensive Line.

Where the biggest difference may be made is from how the Kentucky committee at Quarter Back can do against the Gators strong Defensive unit. Terry Wilson will continue to get the start at Quarter Back but I imagine he will be on a short leash in this game and Gunnar Hoak will be ready to take over although neither is expected to have a lot of success against the Gators through the air.

Things could change if Kentucky are able to establish the run against the Florida Offensive Line who did underachieve last week. Personally I think it was facing an overmatched opponent that produced a lacklustre display and I would expect a lot more from Florida in this one.

It does feel the Gators may be the stronger team on both sides of the ball and the Dan Mullen effect cannot be downplayed. Mississippi State were a decent team to back as the home favourite under Mullen and Kentucky don't have the best record against the spread when facing SEC opponents.

Three of the last four between these teams have been very, very close, but I think Florida may create a couple of turnovers which helps them pull away and produce a statement win in the Conference.


USC Trojans @ Stanford Cardinal Pick: The Pac-12 missed out on a Play Off place in the College Football 2017 season in what was a poor season for the Conference. It is a tough Conference, but in 2018 there doesn't look to be a stand out team either as the two teams who contested the Pac-12 Championship Game meet in Week 2.

The USC Trojans beat the Stanford Cardinal twice and finished with an 11-3 record and the Pac-12 trophy while their rivals had to settle for a pretty poor 9-5 season relatively speaking. That is only the second time since 2009 that Stanford have failed to win double digits in terms of games and they did bounce back from their 8-5 record in 2014 to win 12 games in 2015.

The Cardinal come into the 2018 season with a settled Offensive unit and the return of Bryce Love, who turned down the NFL, is a huge boost for a unit that has 9 returning starters. In 2018 we could see the highest points per game Stanford have put together since 2011 and they dominated the San Diego State Aztecs in an easy win in Week 1.

Stanford and USC do match up well when the Cardinal have the ball and I think it is a close battle that will be determined in the trenches. I do think Stanford will be able to establish the run and that is going to be the determining factor on that side of the ball as the home team try and extract a measure of revenge over the Trojans.

Without a doubt the biggest absentee from this game compared to 2017 is Sam Darnold who is now the starting Quarter Back for the New York Jets and that is a big hole for USC to fill. The domination of the UNLV Rebels doesn't really mean a lot in the grand scheme of things and JT Daniels is in for the biggest start of his career when he faces a solid Stanford Defense.

It will be important to Daniels that the USC Offensive Line is able to win their battle with an inexperienced and new Defensive Line that Stanford will be starting in this one. Daniels won't want to be throwing into a Secondary where the Stanford Defense is at its strongest, and so USC have to find a replacement for Ronald Jones who also left for the NFL this past Draft.

Last week the Trojans ran the ball effectively against the Rebels, but this is a tougher test all around and I do think Stanford playing with revenge is a problem for the visitors to deal with.

Stanford look better all around than USC this time around and home advantage should only aid them as well as the increased motivation. The Trojans have a surprisingly poor 3-9 record against the spread when set as the road underdog over a number of seasons and I think Stanford can add to that number.

The last couple of seasons have seen Stanford struggle in the role of a home favourite, but all the factors point to them and I think their more settled Offensive unit is able to help the Cardinal win this one and cover the number being asked of them.


Michigan State Spartans @ Arizona State Sun Devils Pick: Both the Michigan State Spartans and Arizona State Sun Devils got off to a winning start in the 2018 season, but the performances were contrasting. The Spartans had to dig deep to beat Utah State while Arizona State crushed UTSA, although you have to respect the difference in terms of quality of opposition too.

It is all change in Arizona State going into the new season with Herm Edwards giving up a long-term television analyst role to return to the Coaching ranks. This is actually the first time Edwards has been a Head Coach in the College Football ranks after leading the New York Jets and Kansas City Chiefs in the NFL and it was certainly an appointment which surprised me when it was announced.

He takes over a programme that has big expectations having struggled since winning 10 games in back to back seasons in 2013 and 2014. Since then Arizona State have had one winning season, although surprisingly that saw Todd Graham relieved of his place as Head Coach at the end of the 2017 season.

The Sun Devils should not have too many problems getting the Offensive side of things going this season although they won't face too many better Defensive units than the Michigan State Spartans. That may not have been completely obvious as the Spartans allowed Utah State to score 31 points last week, but a team returning 9 starters should improve on the strong numbers they posted in 2017 and I do expect a reaction from them to the performance in Week 1.

Much will depend on whether Manny Wilkens can match his performance at Quarter Back last week and whether Michigan State's Secondary can play as poorly as they did. If that happens the Sun Devils have every chance of earning the upset in this Week 2 game as the home underdog.

That is because the Sun Devils Defensive unit looked to be in fine form last week and they have a team that looks like it may fit the new system better than the old system they ran. The pressure up front was incredible with 9 Sacks and 3 turnovers secured in the crushing win over the UTSA Roadrunners. We will learn a lot more about the Arizona State Defense when they take on the Michigan State Spartans who are returning 10 starters and look to have a team who can break the 30 point per game mark for the first time since 2014.

However there are still some questions for the Spartans to answer and those mainly relate to the Offensive Line who didn't play well last week. Much more is expected from that part of their Offense in 2018, but Arizona State would love to get a lead and really test the Spartans Offensive Line when it comes to pass protection.

Arizona State are 5-2 against the spread as the home underdog in the last two seasons and they have been a very popular underdog play in Week 2. The spread has dropped below the 6.5 point mark, but the Sun Devils can still be backed against a team they look to match up well with and one who have gone 1-8 against the spread as the road favourite over the last three seasons.

It wouldn't surprise me if a Field Goal is all that separates these two teams at the end of the game, but either way it makes the points given to the home team worth placing on board.


Arkansas Razorbacks @ Colorado State Rams Pick: Chad Morris takes over as Head Coach of the Arkansas Razorbacks in 2018 and he has made a winning start by demolishing a team from the FCS. Suffice to say the challenge gets much tougher for Arkansas who finished with a very poor 4-8 record in 2017.

It was the first losing record for the Razorbacks since 2013 and they are someway behind the very best teams in the SEC although there is confidence Morris can get things turned around if given the time he needs.

Any time a new Head Coach arrives there is a learning curve that a team has to go through and the first year can be very difficult for teams. That may be the case for the Razorbacks who have changes in the system both Offensively and Defensively which evens out the positives of having 17 returning starters available.

The schedule does offer up the chance to get to 6 wins and return to the Bowl season, but you would have to say winning in Colorado State is imperative for the Razorbacks to do that. Colorado State are in the midst of a big turnover with just 4 Offensive starters and 5 Defensive starters back with the team and they were blown out by rivals Colorado in Week 1 which will have knocked the confidence.

This follows the Rams going down to the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors and there is every chance Colorado State will lose a third straight game to open the season for the first time in eight years. Many people tipped the Rams to have problems Defensively with the turnover of players and that has been the case through the opening two weeks of the season and they aren't likely to get much rest when the Razorbacks come to town.

The Rams lost their best Quarter Back, Running Back and Wide Receiver at the end of the 2017 too and they have struggled to run the ball so far in the opening two games. More issues could come up for them here and I do like Chad Morris and the Arkansas Razorbacks moving to 2-0 with a big road win.

My worry is that the Razorbacks have not covered as a road favourite since 2010 and they are 0-5 against the spread in that time. The Colorado States are not exactly a solid home underdog though and I think the Razorbacks cover the big number by creating a couple of turnovers and letting their young Quarter Backs make some big plays against a struggling Defensive unit.

MY PICKS: South Carolina Gamecocks + 10.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Nebraska Cornhuskers - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Florida Gators - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Stanford Cardinal - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Arizona State Sun Devils + 5.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Arkansas Razorbacks - 14 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
North Carolina Tar Heels - 16.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Ohio State Buckeyes - 35 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Baylor Bears - 15 Points @ 1.80 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Cincinnati Bearcats @ 2.05 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
California Golden Bears + 3 Points @ 1.85 Paddy Power (1 Unit)