It was never going to be about maintaining the level of success I had with the NFL Picks through the first couple of weeks because those were winners at an unsustainable level for anyone.
The key was to make sure I didn't hit a really poor week and at least I avoided that for the most part in Week 3.
I am a little irritated with myself for the unit on the Minnesota Vikings having reminded myself all week as to why I didn't want to back them, but it is a mistake I won't be looking to repeat. The other selections were ones that I would have made again and things could have been a lot worse in Week 3 than they turned out to be.
Going into the late Sunday afternoon games it looked like being another decent week to be fair, but the Los Angeles Chargers and Chicago Bears both missed out on the cover despite having some real chances to do that.
Hopefully Week 4 is going to be better and I am beginning this week's selections with Thursday Night Football. It is one of the better Thursday Night Football games of the season and one that could be repeated in the Play Offs in January, while my remaining selections will be added to this thread in the next couple of days.
Minnesota Vikings @ Los Angeles Rams Pick: It was one of the biggest upsets in the last thirty years as the Minnesota Vikings were beaten as an almost three Touchdown home favourite in Week 3. A lack of intensity was clear in the opening minutes of the First Quarter against the Buffalo Bills and it was a bad loss to take to drop the team to 1-1-1 in 2018.
Now they face what many consider to be the team to beat in the NFC as they head to Los Angeles to take on the unbeaten Rams who improved to 3-0 with a win over the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 3. While that was a solid win for the Rams, this is a team who have not exactly beaten any team of serious note so far in 2018 and facing this Minnesota Vikings team is a whole different story to playing Oakland, Arizona and the Chargers.
The Rams have improved their Offensive output in each passing week having scored 33 points in Week 1, 34 points in Week 2 and then 35 points in Week 3. They will be looking to keep that power scoring going against one of the best NFL Defenses, but I do think things will be tougher all around for them even though Head Coach Sean McVay has proven to be an Offensive mastermind.
Everson Griffen is absent for the Vikings which is a big blow to their ability to get pressure on Jared Goff, but Minnesota are making the right decision in helping Griffen improve his life. He has been struggling to cope of late and the Vikings should be more ready to go without him in the weeks ahead than they may have been on Sunday when Griffen's problems hit the public domain.
Goff has been well protected by his Offensive Line anyway and the McVay play calls are inventive to say the least so I do expect the Rams to have their success moving the chains. However I don't think the Vikings will make as many poor decisions in coverage as they did against the Bills especially with a Secondary as good as the one they have.
Todd Gurley may not have a lot of success running the ball, but he should be a factor out of the backfield and Goff may also make some plays with his legs like Josh Allen did against the Vikings last week.
The question then becomes whether Kirk Cousins can bounce back from a rough outing against the Buffalo Bills when his two early fumbles put his team in a big hole in the First Quarter. He would be much happier if Dalvin Cook is passed fit for this game having been held out against the Buffalo Bills as it has been possible to run the ball against a fierce Los Angeles Defensive Line, but the pressure will mainly be on the Quarter Back to make the correct decisions.
I do think Cousins' chances will be bolstered by the injuries to the two starting Corner Backs the Los Angeles Rams would usually play. Both Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters are expected to sit out on Thursday Night Football and that means Sam Shields is going to be the best of the Corner Backs the Rams can put on the field.
Cousins has a decent set of Receivers who should be able to find gaps in the Secondary, but the Quarter Back wants to be protected by the Offensive Line better than he has. With the power the Rams have on the Defensive Line Cousins will have to move around the pocket before finding his Receivers, but he has to make sure he keeps a handle on the ball much better than he did against the Bills when getting strip Sacked twice in the First Quarter.
He has shown in the past he is capable of doing that and this looks a lot of points for the Minnesota Vikings to be receiving. The number has been affected by the poor performance against the Buffalo Bills, but I think Minnesota are much better than what they showed in Week 3.
The Rams have been a very strong home favourite to back under Sean McVay, but I do think this is a lot of points for the visitors to be getting. Kirk Cousins was poor in Week 3, but the absence of the two Los Angeles Corner Backs should mean he has every chance to bounce back and being able to get more than a converted Touchdown in terms of points looks too many for the Vikings.
Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: These two NFC teams may both be coming into Week 4 with a 1-2 record, but the momentum will be with the Detroit Lions who won their first game of the 2018 season in Week 3. It was an impressive win too as they beat the favourites to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, the New England Patriots, in the prime time game on Sunday evening while the Dallas Cowboys had been beaten at the Seattle Seahawks earlier in the day.
Both teams will recognise the importance of winning this game as they both reside in Divisions where most will expect at least one better team to be involved in. At this moment the NFC North and the NFC East have not had a team come flying out of the blocks which will ease some pressure on the Lions and Cowboys, but it is a big game regardless.
Losing the likes of Dez Bryant and Jason Witten was always going to be a problem for the Dallas Cowboys, but injuries on the Offensive Line have weakened what has been one of the stronger units in the NFL in the last couple of years. Most of the attention will be on the loss of the Receivers as no one else has stepped up yet, but it is important for Dallas to try and control the clock and make sure they are using Ezekiel Elliot as much as possible.
Despite the injuries on the Offensive Line, Dallas have actually run the ball for 6.0 yards per carry in 2018 and the Detroit Defensive Line has not performed well against the run. They may sell out and look to prevent Elliot from getting loose and force the pressure on a struggling pass game, but Dak Prescott is also capable of making plays with his legs and the Cowboys should have success on the ground as long as they remain in the game.
It is very important for Dallas who have struggled to move the ball in the air and who have had issues protecting Prescott at Quarter Back. The Lions have been able to get a pass rush going which will be slowed down if Dallas can run the ball effectively and that will also open things up for Prescott to try and make plays with a little more time.
There have been issues for Dallas Offensively, but the Defensive unit have stepped up to try and help them through games as much as possible. The Defensive Line has been very strong against the run and making Detroit a little one-dimensional would be huge for the Cowboys if they are going to win this home game.
Matthew Stafford is a Quarter Back who can have huge statistical games in the air which has to be respected, but the Dallas Secondary haven't played too badly. They have restricted the Carolina Panthers to 16 points and held the New York Giants to 13 points so there will be a confidence they can make the big plays to prevent Stafford from overwhelming them through the air.
Stopping the run will allow Dallas to unleash what has been a strong pass rush to this point of the season although Stafford is a Quarter Back who will look to get the ball out of his hands very quickly. However keeping Detroit in third and long down and distance would mean Stafford could need slightly more time and this could be a chance for the Cowboys to pick up their first Interception of the 2018 season.
I do like the Cowboys having a chance to control the clock on the ground and having that open things up for Dak Prescott through the air. The Lions are off a big win as the home underdog, but they have gone 2-4-1 against the spread after winning a game as the underdog. The Lions are also a poor 8-16-1 against the spread as an underdog of 3 points or less, while Dallas may have a poor home record as the favourite, but are 6-2-1 against the spread as a favourite by 3 or fewer points.
Ezekiel Elliot could have one of his better games in Week 4 and I will back the Dallas Cowboys to win and cover.
Buffalo Bills @ Green Bay Packers Pick: The 1-1-1 record for the Green Bay Packers will be a slight worry for the fans, but there are still some question marks about Aaron Rodgers and the knee injury he suffered in Week 1. The idea is for the Packers to get through the next three or four weeks and then hope the bye week is enough for Rodgers to get healthier as Green Bay will only go as far as their star Quarter Back can carry them.
They will want to avoid the pitfalls that befell their Divisional rivals the Minnesota Vikings who perhaps overlooked the Buffalo Bills in Week 3 and fell to a heavy home loss despite being an almost three Touchdown favourite to win. It is the first win for the Buffalo Bills in the 2018 season which didn't look very promising after the first couple of losses to the Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Chargers which saw the Offense turned over to top Draft Pick Josh Allen.
The Quarter Back played well enough in his first NFL start last week in Minnesota, but he was helped by the poor performance from the Vikings and won't be expecting the Green Bay Packers to shoot themselves in the foot as convincingly as their hosts did in Week 3.
Allen was able to make some plays with his legs to help keep the chains moving last week, but he would have been much happier if LeSean McCoy was available at Running Back. Without their star player the Bills have struggled to open holes up front and that may be the case again in Week 4 even though they are facing a Green Bay Defensive Line who lost Muhammed Wilkerson last week.
The Packers have given up 4.7 yards per carry so far this season, but I think they will look to lock down up front and make sure Allen is having to try and beat them through the air. That could be a problem for the Bills whose Offensive Line has struggled in pass protection and need to be kept in third and manageable spots to make sure they are able to move the chains with consistency.
There are some holes in the Green Bay Secondary that can be exploited, but Allen could find himself facing significant pressure from the pass rush if the running game is not able to get on track. The other problem for the Bills is they are not a team built to be involved in shoot outs but could find themselves having to throw to keep up with the Packers in this one.
Aaron Rodgers is clearly not as healthy as he would want to be but he has still managed to make big plays down the field and even the absence of Randall Cobb is unlikely to slow him down. He is not able to move around the pocket as he would if his knee was at 100% which has led to an increase in Sacks taken, but Rodgers has shown he is still a competent Quarter Back even on one leg.
This game may be on his arm because the Packers may not get a lot of room to run the ball with consistency in this one unless Buffalo are dropping more men into coverage. I don't think they will change their schemes too much even if the Secondary have given up some big yards, but slowing down the Green Bay Offensive unit may be too much for them.
Green Bay are off a loss as the favourite and they have tended to bounce back effectively in the past. Add in the fact that Buffalo have really struggled off the back of an upset win with a 6-22-2 record agains the spread in the game following an upset win as the underdog and I do like the Green Bay Packers to cover this big number.
The number is 8 points fewer than last week and I don't think the Packers are that much worse than the Minnesota Vikings having come close to beating them here already this season if not for a bogus 'roughing the passer' call against Clay Matthews. However it is still a big number and that has to be respected and the key for the Packers is to make sure they are not overlooking Buffalo as their Divisional rivals did, while a banged up Aaron Rodgers has to keep himself clear of the big hits.
I do like the Packers to bounce back from the loss to the Washington Redskins in Week 4.
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: The Houston Texans looked to have found a franchise Quarter Back in the 2017 season when Deshaun Watson showed off the kind of talent he possessed. The season ended with an injury, but there was much excitement in Houston that their team could take a positive step forward when he returned in time for the 2018 season.
It has been disappointing so far as the Texans are 0-3, but they can only look at themselves and accept they have shot themselves in the foot. They are still in the AFC South Division which has two leaders with 2-1 records, but the Texans will also know a defeat to the Indianapolis Colts in Week 4 could mean the 2018 season is going to be a lost one for them.
The Colts have a returning Quarter Back leading the way with Andrew Luck back behind Center, but he has yet to show he is back to his very best. The Colts are 1-2 having narrowly been beaten by the Super Bowl Champions Philadelphia Eagles last week, but it was the Offensive struggles that really let them down.
Any questions about how strong Luck's shoulder is was answered by the fact he was not used for the Hail Mary throw at the end of the game that may have seen Indianapolis upset Philadelphia. Luck is only just averaging over 200 passing yards per game and that has seen the Colts struggle to move the ball with any consistency when you add those numbers to the poor rushing attack.
A lack of run game means the Colts are relying on Luck to make plays and I think he will have some success with the short crossing routes and I can see TY Hilton picking up his yards. However Luck is also going to be put under pressure by the Houston pass rush which should beat out the Indianapolis Offensive Line and that could lead to the Texans finally creating a turnover or two in this one.
There have been some aspects of the Indianapolis Defensive unit that you have to admire with a couple of solid Draft picks looking they can make a big impact in the NFL in the years ahead. However they are going to have a hard time shutting down a Houston Offense that have a number of playmakers and look like the are on the right road to getting things turned around in 2018.
With Watson at Quarter Back the Texans have a player capable of running to make First Downs himself and he has helped Houston produce some decent numbers on the ground. They will be looking to keep Watson in manageable down and distance which can give the Quarter Back the chance to make some big plays down the field as well as giving the Offensive Line more of a chance to protect Watson better than they have.
Indianapolis will get after Watson if they are able to pin back their ears in obvious passing situations, but otherwise I would expect a big game from the Quarter Back in this one. The Colts Secondary have given up some big plays through the air and I like Houston moving the chains and being in a position to earn the 'upset' on the road.
Taking care of the ball is key for the Quarter Back and you would think the Red Zone issues will begin to fix up with the more Football they get under their belts. The Houston Texans can also extend the run of the road team in the recent games between them and Colts with that team being 5-2-1 against the spread in the last eight.
Houston have earned more yards than each of their last two opponents and that is a positive sign considering they have suffered close losses. You have to think that will be turned around sooner rather than later and I think Houston can out-score an Indianapolis Offensive unit that have not been consistent enough in the 2018 season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Chicago Bears Pick: These two NFC teams come into Week 4 with a 2-1 record and they are both going to be heading into a bye week following this game. Both the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Chicago Bears have shown flashes of overachieving this season, but the momentum is with the home team Chicago who have won two in a row while the Buccaneers were losing on Monday Night Football six days ago.
There are going to be some questions for Tampa Bay to answer having seen Ryan Fitzpatrick produce three huge statistical games at Quarter Back in relief of Jameis Winston. The latter has been suspended but is back and Fitzpatrick has just seen his grip on the Quarter Back job loosened by his turnovers which proved so costly in the loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday Night Football.
This is going to be a tough place to try and bounce back for Fitzpatrick as the Chicago Bears Defensive unit have stepped up their level since bringing in Khalil Mack in a trade from the Oakland Athletics. Mack has been a disruptive force on the Defensive Line and the rest of the Bears are playing with confidence to think they can give Fitzpatrick and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers a real challenge to move the ball with the consistency they have shown through the first three weeks.
It is all going to be on Fitzpatrick as the Buccaneers have not really offered much of a run game to support the Quarter Back. That is not likely to change against the Bears Defensive Line who have given up just 3.4 yards per carry and so Fitzpatrick will have to make sure his Offensive Line can protect him from the likes of Mack throughout this game.
I would be surprised if Mike Evans is not able to make some big plays for Fitzpatrick in the passing game, but the Quarter Back's protection in the pocket has not been as strong as he would have liked. Ryan Fitzpatrick can make some plays with his legs, but he should find himself under immense pressure throughout much of the afternoon and has to be wary of the Chicago Secondary who have been able to turn the ball over.
Tampa Bay will have generally been happy with their passing game, but the Chicago Bears know they need to see more from Mitchell Trubisky if they are going to be a dark horse for Super Bowl success. The young Quarter Back is only in his second year in the NFL, but Trubisky has struggled although this could be the weakest Defense he has faced.
It will be up to Trubisky to make some big plays if the Bears are going to win this game because the Tampa Bay strength on the Defensive unit is up front where they have been strong against the run and able to produce a strong pass rush. That means the Quarter Back won't be able to rely on Jordan Howard pounding the ball, although Chicago will stick with the game plan and perhaps even ask Trubisky to make some plays with his legs to avoid the pressure the Buccaneers have been able to bring.
The Offensive Line has not been that strong in protection, but Trubisky could still have a strong game against a banged up Tampa Bay Secondary who have given up some huge yards. You can't blame them for that when considering they have faced Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger already this season, two Quarter Backs levels above Trubisky, but Nick Foles also made some strong plays and so I do think the young Chicago signal caller can have a good game.
He may be supported by the Defense creating turnovers and perhaps even adding a score or two and I do like the Bears to make it three wins in a row. The short week for the Buccaneers makes it tougher for them and I am not sure Fitzpatrick is capable of having a huge game against this Defensive unit but instead this is the kind of game in which he would make those back breaking turnovers.
It's not the biggest spread of the weekend as the layers are not convinced by Mitchell Trubisky, but I like the Bears to cover.
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots Pick: In the last fifteen years you would say the New England Patriots have been there or thereabouts when it comes to representing the AFC in the Super Bowl. A great dynasty has been built by Bill Belichick with Tom Brady as his Quarter Back, but 2018 has not started in the manner that most would have expected.
Back to back heavy losses to the Jacksonville Jaguars and Detroit Lions has dropped the Patriots to 1-2 in the AFC East, but they remain the team to beat and the Miami Dolphins will be the first to admit that. The Dolphins head to Foxboro with a 3-0 record, but they have not exactly faced the toughest of opposition and Miami fans all of the world will know this is a real test of Adam Gase and his players to show if they are for real or not.
Over the last few years the Patriots have dominated their Divisional rivals and the Dolphins have been no different. However this New England team may be the weakest it has been in a long time and that has to encourage the Dolphins even though they have to play on the road.
Rex Burkhead has gone down with an injury and that means New England will lean on Sonny Michel to try and establish the run. It won't be easy for the rookie Running Back considering how well the Miami Dolphins have stopped the run and that is even though they cut Ndamukong Suh in the off-season.
The Dolphins Defensive Line have held their first three opponents to 3.3 yards per carry and they will be looking to make New England have to make plays from third and long. Tom Brady has lost some key weapons in the passing game and New England have yet to give Josh Gordon the green light to be involved and that has meant there hasn't been the consistent Receivers to make plays as in previous years.
Julian Edelman has been a big miss for the Patriots but he is back from suspension for this game and that is a huge plus for Brady. I do think he will make it easier for Brady to make plays through the air, but he will have to have better protection from the Offensive Line to keep the Miami pass rush from disrupting things.
I have little doubt Brady will have his successes though as Miami try to find a way to replace William Hayes up front. The Dolphins Secondary is far from watertight and the only way they can expect to slow down New England is by making sure they are at least forcing Brady to move in the pocket and begin to feel the phantom pressure.
Another way for Miami to protect the Secondary is to put together some long drives with the power running coupled with Ryan Tannehill looking after the ball being a success for them so far. Miami will feel they can establish the run against the Patriots who are allowing 4.7 yards per carry on the season, especially as Tannehill has looked strong off an ACL injury and been able to make some plays with his legs as well as his arm.
Tannehill may not be the most popular Quarter Back Miami have had, but he is a level above Jay Cutler and Adam Gase has been working very well with him. The Dolphins have a strong record with Tannehill and Gase together and they will feel they can make plays against this Patriots Secondary as long as the run is established.
That would open up play-action and also slow down the New England pass rush, but so far Tannehill has been well protected and he has made the right decisions with the ball. Playing a clean game is key for the Dolphins if they want to upset what has become the annual AFC East Champions on the road and that would also see the Dolphins open up a commanding lead in the Division.
Miami are 5-3 against the spread as the road underdog under Adam Gase and with Ryan Tannehill Quarter Backing the team. New England do have some strong numbers as the home favourite in their Divisional games, but they are back in action on Thursday Night Football, which can be a distraction, and this Patriots team may not be as strong as past versions.
Edelman's return may be the spark that helps the Patriots win this game, but I am going to have a small interest in Miami covering.
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals Pick: The Los Angeles Rams are 4-0 and look like a genuine Super Bowl contender which means the other three teams in the NFC West are likely going to be fighting for a Wild Card spot. None of those three teams have a winning record, although the Seattle Seahawks did win their first game in the 2018 season in Week 3 and will be looking to move back to 0.500 on the season.
They certainly look in a better place than their hosts the Arizona Cardinals who are 0-3 and have had enough of watching Sam Bradford check the ball down and then make mistakes to prevent the Offensive unit getting anything going. The decision has been made by Steve Wilks to turn the Offense over to Josh Rosen, but it feels like this is going to be a tough learning curve for the rookie Quarter Back who was caught yawning on the sidelines two weeks ago.
Arizona's big hope is that Rosen can spark something Offensively which can at least get the Cardinals moving in the right direction. It is not an easy match up for him against the Seattle Defense which has got a number of players back from injury despite the famous 'Legion of Boom' breaking up over the last ten months.
Earl Thomas continues to show he is one of the premier Safeties in the League, while Bobby Wagner is expected to play and the Seahawks will feel they can put the clamps on David Johnson trying to run the ball for the Cardinals. I expect the game plan will be to make sure Johnson is accounted for on every play and then force Rosen to make the big plays in his first start in the NFL.
Rosen will be hoping he gets better protection than Sam Bradford had been enjoying because the Seahawks have found a way to get to the Quarter Back up front. That has helped the passing numbers and has also meant Quarter Backs are likely to make mistakes throwing into this Secondary with players swarming around them.
That could be a big issue for Rosen in this one and I do think the Seahawks can hold the Cardinals Offense like many others have so far.
Seattle look like they are potentially getting healthier on the Offensive side of the ball too with Doug Baldwin approaching a return to the team. That is so important for the team as Baldwin is clearly the most trustworthy Receiver they have and will always be a big target for Russell Wilson.
Wilson is going to have all the pressure on his shoulders this week as he won't be expecting to have a lot of support from Chris Carson at Running Back. Carson had a surprisingly good week running against the Cowboys in Week 3, but this Arizona Defensive Line is playing well up front and the Seattle Offensive Line are not likely to win those battles.
It also means Wilson is going to have to scramble to make plays with the pass rush led by Chandler Jones likely to be in Wilson's face throughout this one. However Wilson has shown he can make some big plays on the run and the Arizona Secondary is not as strong as it was a couple of years ago so a returning Baldwin could have a big game or at least offer a distraction to open things up for one of the other Receivers.
With the potential of Rosen turning the ball over a couple of times in this game, I do like the Seattle Seahawks to win and cover here. The Seahawks have a strong 4-0-1 record against the spread in their last five games in Arizona and the Cardinals are 1-3-1 against the spread in their last five games as a home underdog in a Divisional game.
Backing a road favourite in the NFL can be a haphazard living, but I like the Seahawks to give the rookie Quarter Back some real exotic looks and that should lead to a couple of key turnovers to win and cover.
New Orleans Saints @ New York Giants Pick: The New York Giants earned their first win of the season in Week 3 and that moves them back to 1-2 and looking to get a little closer to the Divisional leader and Super Bowl Champion Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC East. They are going to be at their best to compete with the New Orleans Saints in Week 4, although the Saints have yet to convince in 2018 despite coming into the season as one of the favourites to challenge for the Super Bowl.
The Saints are 2-1, but they could easily be 0-3 if Cleveland had hit any of a number of Field Goals to beat them in the SuperDome, while they needed Overtime in Week 3 to edge out the Atlanta Falcons.
All credit has to be given to New Orleans for finding wins in those games, but this is a team who have notoriously struggled when playing outdoors and have to do that this week for the first time in 2018. Any team who has Drew Brees leading the Offensive unit are going to be tough to beat, but New Orleans have missed Mark Ingram who completes his suspension in Week 4.
Alvin Kamara remains a dynamic option for New Orleans coming out of the backfield as a Receiver, but the Saints have not been able to run the ball as well as they would have liked in Ingram's absence. That hasn't prevented Drew Brees putting up some huge numbers, although he has yet to play outdoors and that is where this Hall of Fame Quarter Back can have some problems.
Brees should be able to connect with Michael Thomas against a New York Giants Defensive unit that have given up 232 passing yards per game and who have not faced a Quarter Back up to the level of the one they are facing in Week 4. The Giants will try to get some pressure up front to at least give Brees something to think about, but they will need a below par effort from the New Orleans Saints Offense to give them a chance.
If they get that then the Giants will feel they can pick up from where they left off against the Houston Texans in Week 4 and can keep the Offense rolling. Eli Manning has had the look of a Quarter Back whose best years are behind him, but he had his best game last week and Manning is facing a New Orleans Defensive unit that have taken a step back from where they were performing in 2017.
Saquon Barkley has been strong for the Giants since being picked ahead of Sam Darnold, but the Offensive Line has yet to really open the holes for him that they would have liked. It won't be much easier to do that against the Saints who have played the run well and seen teams instead look to exploit the problems in the Secondary.
You can't ignore the Receiving weapons Manning has with the Giants although he will have to hope the Offensive Line can give him time to find them down the field. So far the Giants have struggled to protect Manning, but last week they looked a little better after making changes on the Offensive Line, although the Saints have found pressure easier to come by than the Houston Texans.
Even the pressure has not been enough for the New Orleans Saints to protect a young Secondary who have just taken a step back from the level they showed in 2017. The numbers have been ugly and the Giants will believe in the likes of Odell Beckham Jr winning their battles to give Manning the chance to keep the chains moving with some consistency.
I do think that ability to score points is going to help the Giants as the home underdog and I like their chances of pushing the Saints all the way. Back to back road games is tough in the NFL, while the first outdoors game of the season is going to be a different factor for the Saints to deal with.
New Orleans look to be the better team which makes it dangerous to oppose them, but getting over the key number of 3 in this one makes the home underdog appealing to back.
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: None of the teams in the AFC North have a losing record after three weeks of the 2018 season, but there is plenty on the line when the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers renew their rivalry on Sunday Night Football in Week 4.
The Ravens come in with a 2-1 record while the Steelers are 1-1-1 after tying with the Cleveland Browns in Week 1. Both teams recorded very important wins in Week 3, but that won't mean a lot when these two play on Sunday as the focus will be completely on this game.
In years gone by this would have been considered a Defensive battle with both teams looking to pound the ball down the throat of the other and then look for their Quarter Backs to make one or two big plays to turn the tide in favour of one or the other.
That may not be the case in 2018 as the pass has been a huge weapon for the Ravens and the Steelers and I do expect the teams to try and air things out on Sunday.
Baltimore will be comfortable with Joe Flacco running things for the Offensive unit as the Super Bowl winning Quarter Back looks to have been inspired by the selection of Lamar Jackson in the 2018 Draft. The Ravens have needed Flacco playing at the level he has because they have not been able to run the ball as well as they would have liked, but that could potentially change this week too.
While the Ravens have not played well enough from the Running Back position, they are facing a Pittsburgh Defensive Line that has given up 4.6 yards per carry. Part of the problem for the Steelers is that they have struggled against the pass and so may have to drop more men into coverage which makes the draw play a potentially big one for the Ravens as they try and establish the run.
It will be important for the Baltimore Offensive Line as they have struggled in pass protection and now face a decent Pittsburgh pass rush. Running the ball may help give Flacco a little more time to dissect a Steelers Secondary which has given up 288 passing yards per game including over 400 to Ryan Fitzpatrick who came up just short of the comeback on Monday Night Football.
Flacco has helped the Ravens just shy of 300 passing yards per game and I do think he can help Baltimore make some big plays in the air in what could be a potential shoot out with the Steelers in Week 4.
The absence of Le'Veon Bell has been the big story around the Pittsburgh Steelers throughout the 2018 season, but Antonio Brown has also been frustrated as the Steelers have not come out of the gates as quickly as they would have liked.
James Connor has actually played well enough in the absence of Bell and the Running Back should have some success against this Baltimore Defensive Line which has not been as stout as they have been in recent years. So far the Ravens have given up 4.2 yards per carry and so it is feasible that the Steelers get the run established to try and east the burden on Ben Roethlisberger at Quarter Back.
Roethlisberger has been forced to cover up the deficiencies of the Pittsburgh Secondary by getting involved in a couple of shoot outs and that has seen the passing numbers look huge from a statistic point of view. However this week he is facing a Baltimore Secondary that has played the pass very well and who have gotten some strong pressure up front which may make it that much more difficult for Big Ben to move the chains through the air.
The Quarter Back has not been protected as well as he would have liked, while Interceptions have been an issue for Roethlisberger. There will be times where Pittsburgh get their yards through the air, especially with the Receivers they have, but overall it looks a tough game for them and I do like the Baltimore Ravens with the start.
Baltimore are 3-0-1 against the spread in their last four visits to Pittsburgh, while the underdog is now 5-1-1 against the spread in the last seven in this series. I just feel the better Defensive unit can make the key plays on the day and that should see the Ravens have every chance to cover when they play on Sunday Night Football against their hosts who are also on the short week.
MY PICKS: Minnesota Vikings + 7.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dallas Cowboys - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 9 Points @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Houston Texans + 1 Point @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Chicago Bears - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Miami Dolphins + 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Seattle Seahawks - 3 Points @ 1.80 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
New York Giants + 3.5 Points @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Baltimore Ravens + 3 Points @ 2.00 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Week 3: 5-5, - 1.42 Units (17 Units Staked, - 8.35% Yield)
Week 2: 6-1, + 9.46 Units (14 Units Staked, + 67.57% Yield)
Week 1: 6-2, + 7.34 Units (16 Units Staked, + 45.88% Yield)
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