NFL Week 1 Picks 2018 (September 6-10)

It feels like the stunning Super Bowl won by Philadelphia over New England was only a few days ago, but the 2018 NFL season is ready to kick off this Thursday.

Looking at the way the off-season panned out, it looks like the usual contenders are going to be right up there fighting for the Championship and I do think this NFL season looks a fascinating one without any team being head and shoulders above the rest.

Some Divisions will be dominated by familiar names (see the AFC East for example), while other teams have gone all in to make sure they compete in what look to be small windows.

All in all it makes for a fascinating season.

My NFL Picks will now have between 5-7 games analysed each week with the remaining Picks placed in the 'MY PICKS' section at the bottom of the page.

I will also make selections for every game although some will be zero unit picks.

On one or two occasions during the course of a long season I may not be able to write up full analysis of my Picks but simply create a thread with the Picks written up. That's just something to keep in mind in a long season which can hit busy periods in my personal life, but hopefully it will still be a winning season regardless.

In most weeks I will add the Thursday Night Football first and then come back and add the selections from the Sunday and Monday offerings. That will be the case with Week 1 too as the defending Super Bowl Champions kick the new season off.


Atlanta Falcons @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: The defending Super Bowl Champions upset the odds to win the Championship at the beginning of 2018 after seeing Carson Wentz go down with a season ending injury. No one had a lot of faith in Nick Foles to guide the Number 1 Seed in the NFC all the way, but Foles had two stunning performances against the Minnesota Vikings and New England Patriots to help the Eagles secure the Super Bowl and it is Foles who will get to make the start in Week 1 for Philadelphia.

Foles plays as Wentz is not quite ready to go despite suffering no setback in his recovery from the ACL injury that ended his 2017 season prematurely. It wasn't the best pre-season for Foles, but I don't think that is a major worry for Philadelphia, although the overall injuries the team come into the new season with is more of a concern.

Alshon Jeffrey is expected to miss out which means the Eagles miss their Number 1 Wide Out, while Foles was also banged up in pre-season before being named as the starter in Week 1. The absence of Jeffrey is a blow for Philadelphia and Foles whose struggles in the Play Off win over the Atlanta Falcons will not have been completely erased by how well he played against Minnesota and New England.

The Eagles do have a strong Offensive Line who will protect Foles, but Atlanta are a team who look to have a Defensive unit that can limit what the home team are able to do in this one. There have been some losses from the Defense that held the Eagles to 15 points in their Play Off defeat, but the Falcons will believe they have not been significantly weakened and facing a banged up Philadelphia Offensive unit should be something Atlanta can have success against.

Atlanta will be expecting to have some revenge from the Play Off defeat having come so close to winning that game at Lincoln Field when Julio Jones almost made a play in the End Zone on Fourth Down that would likely have won the game for the Falcons. Jones has been held out of pre-season so he should be healthy to compete and the Falcons continue to have one of the better Offensive units on paper.

Matt Ryan may not be in the upper echelon of Quarter Backs, but he is surrounded by significant Offensive playmakers and Atlanta may have gotten even stronger this year. The Quarter Back is well protected by a very good Offensive Line and the likes of Jones, Muhammed Sanu and Calvin Ridley give Ryan plenty of passing options.

Both Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman give Ryan strong Running Back options too and both of those players are also able to sneak out of the backfield and make plays as Receivers too. It does bode well for a team that know their Stadium will be hosting the Super Bowl next February and the Falcons do look strong enough on both sides of the ball to challenge, but Ryan will have to help the team score more than 10 points if they are going to win here.

He will know the Philadelphia aggressive Defensive unit is going to pose some big problems for the whole Offensive unit and that could be a key to the outcome of this Week 1 game. Jim Schwartz has gotten plenty out of his Philadelphia Defense and this is one of the premier units in the NFL again which makes it a fascinating contest.

Picking Schwartz to outmanoeuvre Steve Sarkisian won't be a big surprise to anyone who saw the latter Coaching at the end of the 2017 season and it does make this pick 'em game hard to call. You can make a real case for both Atlanta and Philadelphia in this opening game of the 2018 season and I think it will be a very close game like their Play Off game turned out to be.

There is some surprise that the Falcons are the underdog having been the favourite to win on this field back in January, especially as Philadelphia look a little more banged up than the road team. That almost was enough to lean me towards backing the road team, but Schwartz versus Sarkisian in the Co-Ordinator battle put me off with the former considerably further along and likely to get the better of things overall.

What does spring out is that points might be a struggle for both teams against quality Defensive units that will pursue the ball with aggression. Turnovers could quickly make a mockery of this pick, but it was a low-scoring affair when they met in the Play Off and that could be the case in Week 1 too. The line has been drifting down from the opening of 47 points, but I will still look for a low-scoring game thanks to strong Defensive performances preventing the surpassing of the current line.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints Pick: The NFC South looks like being one of the toughest Divisions to call in the NFL with three good looking teams and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers making up the four in the Division. That might be a little harsh on the Buccaneers, but they are missing Jameis Winston for the next three games at Quarter Back and they are some way behind the other three teams in the Division with an opening game in the raucous SuperDome a tough test for any in the NFL.

Ryan Fitzpatrick will get the keys to the Offense for the Buccaneers in the absence of Winston and there have been times when he has looked like a serviceable Quarter Back. He is still hard to trust though and the Tampa Bay Offensive Line will be in for a challenge when they take on an improved New Orleans Defensive unit whose younger players have a year of experience under their belt now.

Last season the Saints really managed to get into a position to rush the Quarter Back and I think that is a big problem for Ryan Fitzpatrick to deal with. He does have the big body of Mike Evans to find, but New Orleans will feel they have the Secondary to at least limit his production and shut down some of the other weapons Tampa Bay will be looking to rely upon.

Tampa Bay will try and establish the run to at least protect Fitzpatrick and perhaps even keep the vaunted New Orleans Offense on the sidelines, but they will need to get more out of their new look Offensive Line. It will still be a challenge against the Saints to establish Ronald Jones as the rookie is likely to make the start for the Buccaneers against a Defensive Line which was pretty decent against the run in 2017 and could be even better this year.

Scoring points doesn't look like being a major problem for New Orleans who have Drew Brees at Quarter Back for another couple of years after signing an extension in the off-season. Brees is still a very good Quarter Back, but it was the balance the Offense had last season which made the big difference for how well the Saints played in 2017.

Alvin Kamara was a revelation for New Orleans and I don't think they will miss Mark Ingram who is suspended for four games to open the season. He was a big reason the New Orleans Saints were able to run the ball as effectively as they did a year ago, but it is Kamara's ability in the open field which makes him so dangerous and the best safety blanket Brees has had since Darren Sproles moved on.

The balance makes Brees that much more dangerous when he does drop back to pass as he can open things up with play-action. The Wide Receivers in New Orleans continue to make big plays for the Quarter Back and the Offensive Line looks like it could be as good as they were in 2017.

With that Offensive Line I think the new additions Tampa Bay have brought in like Jason Pierre-Paul and Vinny Curry might not have the kind of impact we will see from them later in the season. Keeping those players just half a step behind the plays with the balance the Saints can put together Offensively means Tampa Bay could have a tough time slowing down New Orleans in this one.

The Buccaneers were blown out here a year ago, but this is a big number and Fitzpatrick is the ultimate back door covering Quarter Back in these situations. For some real he can make the big plays when virtually nothing is on the line which is a worry for me, especially as the Saints run a 'bend, don't break' kind of system but it still looks a tough ask for the Buccaneers.

Last season the Saints did cover in all three home Divisional games and I think they are a little too good on both sides of the ball for this Tampa Bay team and can produce a big win in Week 1.


Remaining Week 1 Picks below.

MY PICKS: Philadelphia Eagles-Atlanta Falcons Under 44.5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints - 9.5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Baltimore Ravens - 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Cleveland Browns + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
San Francisco 49ers + 6.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Chicago Bears + 7 Points @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
New York Jets + 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Los Angeles Rams - 4 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)