US Open Tennis Day 11 Picks 2018 (September 6th)

The women's Semi Finals take centre stage at the US Open on Thursday as the home fans will be looking to back the last two remaining Americans in the draw and look for another all-US Final like they had last year.

It could have been better if defending Champion Sloane Stephens took her early break point chances in her eventual Quarter Final defeat to Anastasija Sevastova. It is now up to the Latvian to try and take down the best American player of all time when she takes on Serena Williams on Thursday, while the second Semi Final features two younger players looking to win a maiden Grand Slam title.


The last couple of days have not been the best for the Tennis Picks and I am hoping for a better return in the final four days at the US Open. The next four days will be the last Tennis Picks until the middle of the month when the WTA Tour moves to Asia and the ATP Tour hits a couple of indoor spots before heading east for some big events in the lead up to the World Tour Finals for both Tours.


Serena Williams - 5.5 games v Anastasija Sevastova: This is clearly a very big number considering the up and down nature of Serena Williams in 2018, but the American is in great form at the US Open and playing at a very high level.

She will have to drop off considerably from the standard she is setting if Anastasija Sevastova is going to have a realistic chance of beating her in this US Open Semi Final.

The problem for Sevastova is her serve is not anything like as reliable as the one Williams will bring to the court and I think the Latvian is going to be put under considerable pressure every time she has to serve. If the first serve is not producing too many easy points, I expect Serena Williams to feast on the second serve and so there will be plenty of pressure on Sevastova to break the Williams serve.

Very few players have looked capable of doing that this last ten days and the home support is only going to inspire Williams that much more. As long as Williams continues serving at the level she has been producing throughout the US Open, I think she will be too good for Sevastova and can find around four breaks of serve which should be enough to cover a big number.


Madison Keys - 1.5 games v Naomi Osaka: It has been strange to hear the US Open claim their decision to slow down the courts in New York has been to aid the American players. It doesn't make a lot of sense to me when you think this time last year we had four American women players in the Semi Final in New York, but Madison Keys was highlighted as one of the players who would benefit from the new speed of court and she has not disappointed.

Keys reached the Final at the US Open in 2017 and she struggled in that Final, but the experience should be very good for her. The American has been powering her way through the draw and she may get the better of what is expected to be a big hitting match.

Naomi Osaka won the title in Indian Wells and she looks set to fulfil the potential that so many believe she has. It may not come at this tournament, but Osaka looks a future Grand Slam winner in the making and the Japanese player won't be intimidated by the power that comes from the other side of the net.

The serve is going to be so important for both players in this one and their numbers are very close in 2018 on the hard courts which suggests a close match is in the offing. It is hard to separate them on the numbers, but Keys has won all three previous matches between the players and that mental edge may be the reasoning why Keys is able to edge out Osaka.

Both players have only dropped a single set in their march through to the Semi Final and I do think this will be a very intriguing match up. I narrowly give the edge to Keys and I think she will reach her second US Open Final and perhaps be involved in another all-American match with Keys looking for her experience to give a better account of herself in that Final.

MY PICKS: Serena Williams - 5.5 Games @ 2.20 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)

US Open Update: 23-20, + 3.34 Units (76 Units Staked, + 4.39% Yield)