Midweek Football Picks 2018 (September 18-20)

The Champions League and Europa League begins this week and there will be two rounds of matches before the next international break.

It is very important to clubs to make a positive start to the Group Stage and try and secure their spot in the Last 16 as soon as possible so players can be rested as we head towards Christmas. I think that is especially important for clubs in the Premier League ahead of what is the most hectic December schedule in any of the big European Leagues.

Manchester City should be comfortable in their Group, but Manchester United, Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur have more awkward looking sections so making a strong start this week is imperative to avoid dropping out of the Champions League by the end of the Group Stage.

Both Arsenal and Chelsea will also get their Europa League Group Stage underway this week and they have two new managers who have given this competition a real chance at previous clubs they have managed. With a place in the Champions League available for the winner of the Europa League, you have to imagine Arsenal and Chelsea will want to keep a second avenue into the top European competition open as long as possible and I expect both to make it through their Groups without too many issues.


It was a strong weekend for the Football Picks in the Premier League and I am looking to keep that momentum going in what is a busy remainder of September. In this thread I will keep all of the Champions League and Europa League Match Day 1 Picks and a new thread will be posted for the Weekend Football Picks on Friday.


Inter Milan v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: The Champions League has changed format in terms of the make up of the Group Stage and there has also been a decision to stagger kick off times meaning there are a couple of early kick offs on each Match Day.

The competition begins on Tuesday and Inter Milan will be hosting Tottenham Hotspur in one of the early fixtures on Match Day 1 as the two teams look to bounce back from some poor domestic results.

With Barcelona also in the Group, Inter Milan and Tottenham Hotspur have to look at the other and believe they are their main rivals for making it out of the section. It is Spurs who have the more experience of playing at this level in recent years which could prove key, but Inter Milan are hosting this first game against an out of form opponent.

Inter Milan's own form has been far from solid having won 1 of their first 4 Serie A games, while they have been beaten in 3 of their last 4 at the San Siro. They have created chances though and you have to think the results will turn around, but this is a tough fixture for them and the pressure from the locals is never too far away from being vocalised to the players.

Even though Tottenham Hotspur have been struggling in their last couple of games, they have pace in the forward areas and I think that will be important for them. The Inter Milan defence is far from the Italian stereotypes of old and I fully expect both teams to have their chances in this one.

The draw would be more readily accepted by Tottenham Hotspur, or so I would imagine, but Inter Milan will be under pressure to attack and I think that could produce a surprisingly open game. All four previous fixtures between these clubs have produced goals, albeit the last fixture was five years ago, and I think the way both have been playing suggests Inter Milan and Tottenham Hotspur will both score.

Backing at least three goals to be shared out at odds against is the play for me in a game where the winner will feel they have stolen a march on their most likely rival for a place in the Second Round.


Club Brugge v Borussia Dortmund Pick: In a Group that has rivals like Monaco and Atletico Madrid involved, Borussia Dortmund will realise they can't be as wasteful in terms of points as they were twelve months ago if they are going to make it through to the Last 16 of the Champions League.

Last season the 4 losses to Tottenham Hotspur and Real Madrid were going to make it impossible for Borussia Dortmund to Qualify, but the draws with APOEL both at home and away were very disappointing results. The side created chances and will want to be more clinical in front of goal if they are going to give themselves an opportunity to reach the Knock Out Rounds.

On paper Borussia Dortmund should be stronger than Club Brugge, but the run of 9 away games without a victory in normal time has to be a concern for the Bundesliga club. However they are facing a Club Brugge team who have won none of their last 6 home European games and who have found the Champions League a considerable step up from their usual level of competition.

Club Brugge are in decent form at the moment which makes them confident and dangerous which has to be recognised by Borussia Dortmund. The home team score goals here and they will try and put the pressure on their visitors which could pose some problems for Dortmund although I do think the latter will prove to be a little too good on the day.

My concern in backing Borussia Dortmund is the poor overall away record and their recent poor away European record to add on top. They failed to beat APOEL away from home last season and Club Brugge are probably slightly better than that opponent which makes this a tough test for Dortmund, but I think they have opened the season with chances created and that may be enough to edge out their hosts.

I wouldn't be surprised if Club Brugge play their part in this one too though and Borussia Dortmund may need at least two goals to win here. Backing Borussia Dortmund in a game that features at least two goals looks the way to go here.


Crvena Zvezda v Napoli Pick: There is obviously going to be an adjustment period at Napoli as new manager Carlo Ancelotti tries to get his methods across to a team that has been used to playing in a certain way under Maurizio Sarri. Sarri has moved on to take over as manager of Chelsea and been replaced by a former Chelsea manager who has had considerable success in the European Cup both as a player and as a manager.

Last season Napoli found themselves coming up short in a tough Group and they look the third favourite to make it through to the Second Round this time around too. It was the poor away form that cost Napoli a chance of moving into the Second Round having lost all 3 away Group games and so this is a big test for Napoli from the off.

Crvena Zvezda are better known to English fans as Red Star Belgrade and it has now been almost thirty years since they won the European Cup with a special group of players. The whole club has fallen some way behind those standards in recent years but a return to the Champions League Group Stage is a strong achievement for them.

Playing in Belgrade is tough for any visitor so there is a concern for Napoli who did lose in Shakhtar Donetsk and Feyenoord in the Group Stage last season. However I am going to put those defeats down to just one of those days as Napoli were pretty good in both of those losses mentioned and probably deserved to win both.

Napoli have still been creating plenty of chances despite the change in the manager and I think they will have enough to win here. There is pressure on the Italian club who will know failing to win will make it very difficult to get out of a Group containing both Liverpool and Paris Saint-Germain, but I think they are a level above Crvena Zvezda at this moment in time.

I expect the home team to make it tough, but I will back Napoli to win here.


Schalke v Porto Pick: This is a Group that doesn't really contain a stand out team but both Schalke and Porto will believe they have enough to make it through to the Last 16. Make no mistake that every team that makes it through to the Second Round will be hoping to be paired with whichever teams make it out of this Group.

That is for another day though and both Schalke and Porto will be looking to take a big step towards the Last 16 by beating what is likely to be the biggest threat to their place in the Second Round.

Neither team has made an ideal start to the new season and that could mean both are playing with the confidence knocked, although I think that could lead to an open game. There is a pressure to get off to a good start, but Schalke and Porto will feel most comfortable going forward and this really does have the feel of a fixture that will produce at least three goals.

My most concerning result has to be 1-1 which could be settled for by both clubs who will feel they can beat Lokomotiv Moscow and Galatasaray later in the section. However an early goal in the first 30 minutes of this one could really open things up and I will back at least three goals to be shared out.


Liverpool v Paris Saint-Germain Pick: There are some huge Champions League ties that are going to be played in the Group Stage of the competition and the one that stands out on Match Day 1 has to be Liverpool hosting Paris Saint-Germain.

Both clubs will feel they have enough to move through to the Second Round even though Napoli are also involved in this Group. However winning the Group can be a huge edge for teams ahead of the Second Round draw as they look to avoid some of the top names in the Champions League and so the head to head between Liverpool and Paris Saint-Germain is very important.

The attacking nature of both managers suggest this has all the makings of a very entertaining fixture and I would be surprised if we don't see a few goals on Tuesday evening. 4 of the 7 home Champions League games played by Liverpool featured at least four goals shared out, while 7 of the last 8 away Champions League games played by Paris Saint-Germain have also featured that number of goals.

With the likes of Mohamed Salah, Sadio Mane, Neymar and Kylian Mbappe all on the field it is difficult to imagine a fixture that doesn't see chances at both ends. Liverpool and Paris Saint-Germain will feel much happier going forward and I will back at least four goals to be shared out by the two teams at odds against.


Ajax v AEK Athens Pick: After scratching around and missing out on a Champions League Group Stage place for a number of years, Ajax and AEK Athens will both be glad to be sitting on the top table of European Football. Bayern Munich may be the best team in the Group, but both Ajax and AEK Athens have to feel that Benfica could be vulnerable and they will be hoping to extend their Champions League stay to beyond Christmas.

Games between Ajax and AEK Athens could definitely determine who doesn't finish bottom of the section too and this looks like it could be a decent game of football.

Both clubs have made good starts to the new season which includes making it through the Champions League Qualifiers. However I think home advantage may make the difference for Ajax especially if AEK Athens are as poor as they were for large stretches in their 1-1 draw at Celtic in the Qualifiers.

I do have to respect AEK Athens for showing they can be tough to beat though as they weathered the storm that day and earned the positive result. They have a 7 game unbeaten run away from home in the European competitions to protect here and Ajax will just have to be aware of that.

However I also have noted how well Ajax have played at home in the last three seasons in European competition and AEK Athens should not be a big step up from the likes of PSV Eindhoven and Feyenoord who Ajax compete with domestically. It could be a fun game, but it is one where I think the Ajax home crowd can push the team on to another home win in the Champions League and I will look for the four time European Champions to cover the Asian Handicap too.


Shakhtar Donetsk v Hoffenheim Pick: This looks like a Champions League Group that has a leading contender in the overall winner determination in Manchester City and then three teams who will feel they have enough to move into the Second Round.

Out of the three teams Shakhtar Donetsk, Hoffenheim and Lyon I do think the Ukrainian Champions may be able to edge through to the Second Round as they did along with Manchester City last season. Home form is going to be key for them again after winning all 4 home Champions League games last season and Shakhtar Donetsk have been very good in the Ukraine in recent seasons.

They tend to have talented, attacking players with a number of Brazilians who have played for Shakhtar Donetsk moving on to bigger teams over the years. Bringing in new faces to replace those that have left has not had an impact in the successes Shakhtar Donetsk have had and I do think they can get off to a winning start here.

Hoffenheim won't be underestimated by the hosts, especially with a talented manager at the helm, but it has not been a great start to the new season. Add in the fact that Hoffenheim struggled away from home in Europe last season and Julian Nagelsmann's contract to leave at the end of the current campaign and I do think they may be the team who struggles the most in this Group.

Backing the home team at odds against isn't a bad play, but having the security of half the stake being returned in the event of a draw on the Asian Handicap may be the better option. That is still an appealing price and will be my approach to this early kick off on Wednesday.


Real Madrid v Roma Pick: Seeing Real Madrid playing in the Champions League without Cristiano Ronaldo will take some getting used to for the fans of the three time defending Champions. There is still enough quality to expect Real Madrid to go close to winning the Champions League for a fourth time in a row, but Ronaldo proved to be a big match winner so many times for them that it feels Real Madrid are more vulnerable this time around.

Winning their Champions League Group will at least mean Real Madrid avoid the incredibly tough path they had to run last season. Beating Paris Saint-Germain, Juventus and Bayern Munich to simply reach the Final is very impressive, although Real Madrid have only won 2 of their last 5 home Champions League ties.

This week they face a Semi Finalist from last season, although Roma are much more vulnerable away from home as they have shown by losing their last 4 away Champions League games. Those defeats were overcome on the run to the Semi Final, but Roma have made a difficult start to the new season and I think they will have some problems containing this Real Madrid team.

In the early part of the new season, Roma have shown they can cause problems for opponents, but defensively they have looked like they could struggle at this level. It won't be a big surprise if Roma were to score here, but Real Madrid may still be too strong as they look to move into a strong position in the Group with a win on Match Day 1.

I won't deny this is a big Asian Handicap to cover especially when you think Real Madrid have won 2 of their last 5 home Champions League games and are likely to concede. 1 of their 5 home games in this competition last season ended with Real Madrid winning by at least a two goal margin, but Roma have lost 4 away games in a row in the Champions League and 3 of those have come by two or more goals.

That run includes losing 2-0 in Atletico Madrid and 4-1 in Barcelona and I will back Real Madrid to match those margins in this Match Day 1 fixture.


Young Boys v Manchester United Pick: This may feel like a Group that contains three teams that will expect to reach the Second Round and Young Boys, but the Swiss team shouldn't be one that is underestimated. They are the current best team in Switzerland and Basel have shown they are more than capable of challenging the best teams in European Football in recent years.

The inexperience might be costly for Young Boys, but they are strong at home and they won't be intimidated by a Manchester United team who have not had a deep Champions League run in a long time. The last time Manchester United reached the Quarter Final of the Champions League was under David Moyes in 2014 and even winning the Europa League will not be enough to satisfy the fans that real progress is being made.

Jose Mourinho is still being well backed by the vocal away support and Manchester United have played well the last couple of games which suggests they are going to be good enough to win this one. The record away from home in recent European seasons is not ideal, but Manchester United did beat CSKA Moscow and Benfica away from home last season.

The defeat in Basel is a concern as they go back to Switzerland where Manchester United have had some poor results in recent years. Manchester United have lost in Basel in 2011 and 2017, their last two visits to Switzerland, but I do think the current play is going to be good enough to beat a confident Young Boys team who did fail to beat Dinamo Zagreb in the Champions League Qualifiers at home.

As I have mentioned, I don't think Young Boys will roll over for Manchester United as they look to upset the 20 time English Champions. However Manchester United have scored twice in all 3 away games played in the Premier League this season at Brighton, Burnley and Watford and I don't think that attacking intent will drop off in this one.

Manchester United will have to remain a little clinical in front of goal when the chances do present themselves as they won't want to let Young Boys have an avenue back into this one like they left Basel last season. This is a big game in the Group with Valencia and Juventus to come and I think Manchester United will be good enough to deliver a victory on Wednesday.


Besiktas v Sarpsborg Pick: On paper this may feel like a mismatch, but football is never played on paper and Besiktas will have to take care of their performance against a Sarpsborg team with nothing to lose.

You have to credit the Norwegian team for coming through four Qualifying Rounds to make the Group Stage in what is their debut season in any form of European Football. Balancing the squad for domestic and European commitments can be difficult though and I do think that has played a part in Sarpsborg's 4 game losing run in all competitions.

They have been conceding too many goals in that time and now face a Besiktas team who have been very strong at home in Europe in recent years. Besiktas have particularly enjoyed playing at the Europa League level having won 7 straight home games in this competition and scoring at least twice in 6 of those, while they reached the Champions League Last 16 a few months ago.

Besiktas have the experience edge and home field advantage in this fixture on Match Day 1 of the Group Stage and I think they will be too good for Sarpsborg. The latter have proven to be a thorn in the side of the teams they have faced so far, but this is a big step up and I will back the Turkish side to cover the Asian Handicap in the victory.


Dynamo Kiev v Astana Pick: Two teams who will have been watching the opening Champions League matches with some envious eyes will play on Match Day 1 of the Europa League and I have to favour Dynamo Kiev to get the better of Astana.

I do think both teams could have come into this one on better form, but home advantage should be the key to the outcome.

Astana have to be respected for some very good away results in the Europa League Group Stage twelve months ago but they have lost back to back away games at Dynamo Zagreb and APOEL which will have dented some of the confidence.

That's not to say Dynamo Kiev have been in dominant home form, but over the last couple of years they have found a way to win games here and I think they do that here. The opening Europa League games can produce some very funny results, but I would be surprised if Dynamo Kiev don't win this one against a team who have scored 1 goal in their last 4 away games in all competitions.

The back to back away losses Astana have suffered and a closing of the gap between themselves and Kairat in the Kazakhstan top flight as a distraction means I believe the visitors may not be as intense as they would need to be to win here. Backing Dynamo Kiev on the Asian Handicap looks the way to go.


Lazio v Apollon Pick: You never know the kind of changes managers will make to their starting elevens in the Europa League Group Stage and it is much more unpredictable than the Champions League. However you have to expect Lazio will know the importance of winning this home game if they have a realistic ambition of making it through to the Last 32 of the Europa League.

With Marseille and Eintracht Frankfurt making up the remainder of the Group Lazio will look at this home game with Apollon as the 'easiest' one they will have in the section.

Last season Lazio were strong at home in the Europa League and that carried them through to the Quarter Final, while the second route into the Champions League cannot be ignored by a club desperate to return to the big time. That should mean a strong Lazio team is picked and I expect they will be good enough to beat Apollon who have lost 5 of their last 6 away games in the Europa League as well as 5 of their last 6 on their travels overall.

Apollon concede too many goals away from home and I expect Lazio to take advantage even if they have yet to really get on the goalscoring trail in the early portion of the new season. Lazio have not scored more than one goal in any of their fixtures so far, but some will argue this opponent is not up to the level of those in the Italian top flight and I will look for the home team to win by at least a couple of goals on the day.

Half of Lazio's home Europa League games ended with a win by two or more goals, while Apollon were beaten handily in Atalanta and Lyon. I will look for Lazio to at least match what Atalanta were able to do and will back them to cover the Asian Handicap in this one.


Marseille v Eintracht Frankfurt Pick: Last season's Finalists Marseille barely missed out on a Champions League place both domestically and through the Europa League. That was a blow to the ambitions of the club, but Marseille may come into the 2018/19 season as one of the favourites to win the Europa League although they do have a difficult Group to contend with.

They should be able to get the better of Eintracht Frankfurt on Match Day 1 of the Europa League considering how poorly the German side have begun the 2018/19 season.

Beating Bayern Munich to win the German Cup helped Eintracht Frankfurt return to European competition for the first time in four years, but they have been inconsistent away from home. That is going to be tough to manage in the Europa League where they have to visit both Marseille and Lazio and I think the French side are going to have a little too much for Eintracht Frankfurt.

Marseille have won 7 of their last 8 home games in all competitions and they have also won their last 4 home Europa League games. I will back Marseille to win this one by a couple of goals on the day and cover the Asian Handicap.


Celtic v Rosenborg Pick: Revenge will be on the mind of the Rosenborg players as they face Celtic for the fifth time in fourteen months having been beaten in the Champions League Qualifiers in the 2017/18 and 2018/19 season. Gaining revenge won't be so easy as Celtic have just looked like they might be turning a corner on what has been an inconsistent start to the season.

In saying that Rosenborg have won 7 in a row in all competitions and have won back to back away games in the Europa League and both stats need to be respected. This is a team who are used to winning football games and they were leading at Celtic Park back in July before going down 3-1.

Celtic have just had a hard time dealing with exiting the Champions League prior to the Group Stage as that is the main aim for the club in recent years. It comes with a financial boost and gives the fans something to look forward to after dominating Scottish Football under Brendan Rodgers.

At the moment Celtic are 5 points behind Hearts in the Scottish Premiership, but they remain strong favourites domestically and a good run in the Europa League has to be a real ambition for Rodgers. Last season he insisted Celtic needed to be playing in Europe after Christmas and that will be the goal in a tough Group this time around too.

Celtic have to win games like this if they do want to progress to the Last 32 and I do think they hold the mental edge over Rosenborg. The Norwegian Champions are in fine form, but Celtic Park is a tough Stadium for any team to visit and I will back Celtic to match their margin of victory when the teams met in the Champions League Qualifiers at the end of July.


Sporting v Qarabag Pick: You would expect Arsenal and Sporting to have too much in this Group for Vorskla and Qarabag but any complacency could see a big casualty in the Europa League.

Qarabag look the most likely to upset the favourites in this Group, but it is a big ask for a team who are gaining plenty of experience in recent years. That experience will help Qarabag but they have found the step up to the Group Stage a step too far and this is a long away journey for them to make.

They are facing a Sporting team who reached the Europa League Quarter Final last season and who were a little unfortunate to go out against eventual Winners Atletico Madrid. Sporting are a strong team at home with 3 wins from their last 4 home European ties and I think there will be too much quality in the home team ranks to avoid the upset.

It is also a boost for Sporting that their next fixture has been scheduled for Monday evening at Sporting Braga so they can concentrate fully on this one. I expect that to result in a comfortable enough home win on the day and give Sporting the platform to build their move through the Group and into the Europa League Last 32 in the weeks ahead.

MY PICKS: Inter Milan-Tottenham Hotspur Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Borussia Dortmund & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.25 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Napoli - 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Schalke-Porto Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Liverpool-Paris Saint-Germain Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.25 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Ajax - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Shakhtar Donetsk - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Real Madrid - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Manchester United - 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Besiktas - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Dynamo Kiev - 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Lazio - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Marseille - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Celtic - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Sporting - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

September Update: 8-8, + 1.18 Units (32 Units Staked, + 3.69% Yield)