Week Four of the College Football season begins on Thursday evening but I am going to post this thread ahead of the Friday evening games to be played as one of my selections from the Week will come on that evening.
There have already been some big upsets this season which have created clear room for others to profit and make their way into the College Football Play Off picture, although right now I don't know who is going to be good enough to even challenge the Alabama Crimson Tide.
Things will change as we keep putting the weeks in the books but so far Alabama have looked stronger than all of their contenders and they will be looking to produce another dominant win in Week 4 to underline their status. Other teams chasing the Play Off spots at the bare minimum will be looking to remain unbeaten although some have already had their slim hopes dashed, most notably the Boise State Broncos who were blown out in Week 3 by the Oklahoma State Cowboys.
So far it has been a couple of winning weeks for the College Football Picks but that doesn't really mean anything in Week 4. Of course if they keep coming through to the end of December then I will be feeling much more positive about the whole thing, but I know one poor week will erase all of the work put in so far.
That is always what I am trying to avoid as another interesting week gets underway.
For those reading and waiting for my NFL Picks, the thread will be posted most likely on Saturday evening or Sunday morning. I didn't have a pick from the Thursday Night Football game between the New York Jets and Cleveland Browns with the line right on the money and instead my Picks will come from the Sunday and Monday offerings in Week 3 of the NFL.
Now onto the Week 4 College Football Picks with breakdown of a few games and the remainder of the Picks added in the 'MY PICKS' section below.
Penn State Nittany Lions @ Illinois Fighting Illini Pick: Before I go anywhere with the break down of this pick I am sure you will be well aware that the Penn State Nittany Lions are very much the superior team to the Illinois Fighting Illini and they are coming off a couple of blow out wins. The Nittany Lions could be a real Play Off contender in College Football this season even though they have lost Saquon Barkley to the NFL and it is that possibility that makes me want to back the underdog with a healthy dose of points.
The Fighting Illini have been in the midst of a rebuild from the moment Lovie Smith took over as Head Coach and there were some positive signs from the opening wins. The defeat in Week 3 to the USF Bulls underlines there is still some way to go for Illinois as they begin their Big Ten play.
Playing at home in a night game has to give Illinois some positive momentum in this one though and I do think this is a lot of points for any road team to be covering. That is especially the case for Penn State who could easily be overlooking the Fighting Illini and instead focusing on a the huge game with the Ohio State Buckeyes coming up in Week 5 which could determine whether they are going to win the Big Ten Conference and subsequently make the College Football Play Off.
On paper it is hard to imagine how Illinois are going to stop Penn State considering how well the Nittany Lions have been able to run the ball which will open things up for Quarter Back Trace McSorley to make plays down the field. The Nittany Lions have created some big holes up front and Illinois' Defensive Line have allowed 4.3 yards per carry from weaker teams than the one they are facing on Thursday which suggests Penn State will be able to move the chains with success throughout this one.
McSorley is a capable runner from Quarter Back too which makes him a dual threat to deal with but I have liked the pressure Illinois have created up front which could help them here. The Secondary have given up a lot of yards in their first three games, but the Fighting Illini have found turnovers and that is going to be very important for them to stay within this number.
The challenge for Lovie Smith is going to be to find a way to slow down the Penn State Offensive unit that have been rolling the last couple of weeks and then putting young Quarter Back MJ Rivers into good spots now he has taken over from the injured AJ Bush. Rivers hasn't played badly, but he is expected to be under siege from the Penn State pass rush whenever he drops back so the key for the Fighting Illini is staying in good down and distance throughout.
So far it has been the ability to run the ball which has given Illinois the chance to control the clock and manage games, but running against the Penn State Defensive Line will be a big challenge for them. The Nittany Lions are only giving up 3.5 yards per carry, but I don't think Illinois will change their game plan and will look to use the power on the ground to prevent Rivers having to force the ball and thus lead to potential turnovers.
That could also slow down the Penn State pass rush just enough for the Fighting Illini to have a chance in this one.
And when I say chance I really mean to get within the number which looks a very big one for a slightly distracted team to cover.
You can't help but admire the way Penn State crushed the Pittsburgh Panthers on the road and that kind of win suggests covering a huge number won't be an issue for them. However that was a big rivalry game for Penn State and that is not the case in this one where the Nittany Lions will believe they are much better than Illinois and so will be looking ahead to the big game with the Buckeyes instead.
James Franklin is the kind of Head Coach who won't tolerate a drop in standards, but this could be an awkward game for Penn State and taking the points with the Fighting Illini looks the way to go.
MY PICKS: Illinois Fighting Illini + 28.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Michigan Wolverines - 17.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Alabama Crimson Tide - 26 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Clemson Tigers - 15 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Kansas State Wildcats + 17 Points @ 1.80 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
South Carolina Gamecocks - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Texas Longhorns + 3 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
LSU Tigers - 20.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Texas Tech Red Raiders + 14.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Michigan State Spartans - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Stanford Cardinal - 2 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Week 2: 5-5, - 0.55 Units (10 Units Staked, - 5.5% Yield)
Week 1: 6-5, + 0.52 Units (11 Units Staked, + 4.73% Yield)
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