Weekend Football Picks 2018 (September 15-17)

The Premier League is back this weekend after a two week break and this thread is going to cover the Picks to be made from the fixtures that will be played over three days.

August was a decent month, but September did not start as well as expected so I am looking for a much better outcome from the weekend's matches ahead of the start of the Champions League and Europa League Group Stage opening matches during the week.


Tottenham Hotspur v Liverpool Pick: The Premier League returns with a bang this weekend as Tottenham Hotspur prepare to take on Liverpool and there has been a big drift on the home prices which means they go into this one as the underdog.

In another dimension Tottenham Hotspur are opening up New White Hart Lane to significant fanfare, but in this dimension they have to return to Wembley Stadium. That might not be all bad news for a team who have won 11 of their last 14 games in the national Stadium and the return of Heung-Min Son from international duty is a huge boost for the team.

The 2-1 loss to Watford was a really disappointing result, especially as Tottenham Hotspur came off a fantastic 0-3 win at Old Trafford but they look to be have been written off a little too much in this one.

Liverpool have won all 4 Premier League games played this season, but they have yet to better a result they achieved in the corresponding fixture from last season. The side were a little fortunate in their win over Leicester City and now they are in for the first really significant test of their Premier League title credentials on Saturday.

Sadio Mane is in fine form and Liverpool have goals in the side which makes them dangerous, but the backline is going to be challenged more than they have so far this season. Last year they couldn't handle the Tottenham Hotspur attack who scored twice at Anfield as well as the four goals at Wembley Stadium and even a slightly out of form Tottenham Hotspur poses a big challenge.

I would be surprised if Tottenham Hotspur were to lose this one. Harry Kane might not be firing just yet, but the returning Son is a boost and defensively Tottenham Hotspur have generally been much better than what they displayed against Watford. The World Cup will have an affect on the players even at this stage of the season which is a concern, but I do think Liverpool have yet to be tested and I am not buying into the hype as much as some of the fans will.

You can actually pick up Tottenham Hotspur with a start on the Asian Handicap at a decent price and that will be my selection. I personally think Tottenham Hotspur can do enough to edge to the victory as they bounce back from the poor display at Watford, but even a draw would provide a profit in that situation.

Liverpool have won their games, which has to be respected, but they have looked far from convincing and I will take a start with a surprising home underdog.


Bournemouth v Leicester City Pick: Games between Bournemouth and Leicester City have promised much but failed to really live up to the expectations in recent years.

Both teams have quality attacking players and you would think they would gel together with Eddie Howe looking for his team to dictate the play and Leicester City being used to open up the counter attack.

For one reason or another goals have tended not to flow when they have met one another, but the early season form suggests they can hit the goal trail in this fixture on Saturday.

Bournemouth have looked very effective going forward and looking to score goals, but they remain a vulnerable team at the back. That should be exposed by a well rested Jamie Vardy who is back from suspension for Leicester City although The Foxes have had anything but a watertight defence in the early weeks of the season.

That should mean we see a couple of teams who are able to get forward and score goals and I would be surprised if both teams were not able to get on the scoreboard in this one. With the attacking intent Bournemouth have played with to open this season I think they will keep this an open game and that should mean we can find a winner and look for at least three goals to be shared out between two teams who have made a good start to the 2018/19 season.


Chelsea v Cardiff City Pick: The next month between the two international breaks will tell us a lot about where Chelsea stand and whether they are a genuine Premier League title contender, but it would be a real surprise if they can't keep their 100% record moving onto another week this weekend.

A home game with Cardiff City should be very much a fixture that Chelsea are able to dominate, although you do have to wonder how players are feeling when returning from their international commitments.

One player I don't worry about is Eden Hazard who looks to be playing at a very high level having continued scoring goals for Belgium during the international fixtures. He has been in good form for Chelsea following on from a very strong World Cup and I do think the home team will prove too strong for a Cardiff City team that could struggle for goals.

Neil Warnock will look to make Cardiff City hard to beat away from home, but this is a big step up for a team who were not expected to be anywhere near the promotion places in the Championship last season. The squad hasn't seen a lot of investment in the summer transfer window and it will be down to Warnock's motivational skills to try and keep the club in the top flight.

Fixtures like this won't determine that for Cardiff City but Warnock won't want to see his team embarrassed and they will try and frustrate Chelsea for as long as possible. However I think the Maurizio Sarri methods will see The Blues put a lot of pressure on the Cardiff City backline throughout this one and I believe the home team will be too strong on the day.

It is a big Asian Handicap to cover, but Chelsea have been scoring plenty of goals and look like a team that will create chances. That may be too much for a goal-shy Cardiff City team and I will back the home team to cover the Asian Handicap which will produce a profit as long as Chelsea win by at least two goals on the day.


Huddersfield Town v Crystal Palace Pick: Both Huddersfield Town and Crystal Palace have to be circling fixtures like this one as being very important in their bid to reach the 40 point mark in the Premier League which will keep them in the top flight.

David Wagner will fully appreciate the tough job he has on his hands to keep The Terriers in the Premier League for a third consecutive season having seen Huddersfield Town struggle in the second half of the 2017/18 season. That drop in level of performance has come into the new season too and Huddersfield Town could feel a little fortunate to even have 2 points on the board.

On the other hand Crystal Palace do think they have deserved more than the single win they have earned in their first 4 League games. They had the chances to do better than their 0-2 defeat to Southampton last time out and Roy Hodgson has to be pleased to have Wilfried Zaha potentially available for this fixture.

Crystal Palace certainly have more going forward with Zaha in the line up and even the absence of Christian Benteke should not have a big impact on The Eagles. They have looked like they can create a lot more chances than Huddersfield Town and that can make the difference when these teams meet on Saturday.

If you're a home fan you have to be worried that Huddersfield Town have not scored in 7 of their last 8 home games in all competitions including in both games played this season. The goal issue has not really not been resolved and I think that will contribute to an away win here as I do think Crystal Palace have more chances in them and definitely more goals.

Backing Crystal Palace on the Asian Handicap will return the stake in the event of a draw and that looks a reasonable way to go in this fixture.


Manchester City v Fulham Pick: This is a very tough task for Fulham coming out of the international break especially if they don't change the style they have produced through the first month of the season. An open, attacking system has to be praised, but Fulham have been very suspect at the back and have allowed opponents to create significant opportunities to score goals.

Tottenham Hotspur scored three times against Fulham and Crystal Palace, Burnley and Brighton have all scored twice as the open style employed by The Cottagers has seen them struggle at the back.

Going to the Etihad Stadium it is a big ask of Fulham to play that way even if they will give Manchester City a few problems doing that. Manchester City have not had a clean sheet in their last 3 Premier League games which means Fulham may be encouraged to get forward, but Manchester City have created a lot of chances in their matches and I think it is going to be very difficult for Fulham to contain them.

As with many home games Manchester City will be asked to cover a big Asian Handicap and a Fulham goal would make it very difficult to do that. Losing Kevin De Bruyne is a blow for Manchester City but they have the talented players who can make up for the Belgian's absence for the next couple of months and this is a team who have created enough chances to think they are never too far away from handing out a big defeat to opponents.

With the style Fulham have used I think they will be a good match up for Manchester City and I will back the home team to produce a win that can see them cover the Asian Handicap in this one.


Newcastle United v Arsenal Pick: This is the third home game of the season for Newcastle United and they are facing yet another club that finished in the top six last season. Both Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea have deservedly won here this season, but this Arsenal team are still finding their feet under Unai Emery which may make them vulnerable as a short priced favourite.

However I have been impressed with the chances Arsenal have been creating in their games under Emery and they did have a very good record at St James' Park before the 2-1 defeat here a few months ago.

On that occasion Arsenal did take the lead before losing, but I am not sure this current Newcastle United squad have the kind of confidence to be able to recover from a deficit. I know they have fallen behind to Spurs, Chelsea and Manchester City and found an equaliser, but Newcastle United have not created a lot of chances in those games and still look short of goals which makes me believe they are not going to be capable of continuing to fight back in these bigger games.

Arsenal have been far from convincing at the back which is an issue for them to resolve, but that may take time as the players get used to the methods Emery wants to employ. Even with those problems in mind, Arsenal have looked very good going forward and are creating plenty of chances which makes it tough for Newcastle United to look to contain them.

The home team will be backed by a passionate crowd, but Arsenal handled the occasion in a 2-3 win at Cardiff City prior to the international break and I think they will have too much for Newcastle United. They are barely odds on for this fixture, and I would have liked a slightly better price, but Arsenal look the better team and are playing with a real goal threat.

I feel they will have at least two goals in them at St James' Park on Saturday and I simply don't think Newcastle United will be able to match them with the limited threat posed so far this season. The home team may score, but it won't be enough to avoid defeat as far as I am concerned.


Watford v Manchester United Pick: This is a good looking match on Saturday afternoon as Watford look to bring the momentum of 5 straight wins into a fixture where they are hoping to take down another of the top six clubs from last season. The performances have been decent from Watford, but you can't help feel they have ridden their luck a little bit to the results and this is a big test for them out of the international break.

With Watford you know they will bring hard work and some decent attacking quality onto the field, but with Manchester United it is much harder to predict these days.

After back to back League defeats to Brighton and Tottenham Hotspur where Manchester United conceded three times in each loss, the side bounced back with a good display at Turf Moor to knock off Burnley.

There are still some questions for Jose Mourinho's team to answer, but they have been creating decent chances which suggests a decent run can be put together before facing Chelsea after the next international break. This is a tough game, but it is followed by Wolves, West Ham United and Newcastle United in the Premier League and Young Boys and Valencia in the Champions League which means the Burnley win can be built upon.

If Manchester United create the chances they did against Spurs and Burnley I would think they can win here. They scored four times in a victory at Vicarage Road last season and Manchester United look like a team who have shown signs of quality attacking football to break down a resilient Watford team.

Defensively Manchester United have been far from convincing which makes it hard to completely trust them but at just under odds against prices I do think Mourinho's men can win here and start putting some momentum together.


Wolves v Burnley Pick: As soon as Burnley qualified for the Europa League Qualifiers and failed to make the kind of investment in the playing staff that was expected in the summer it felt like this squad would be stretched playing the Thursday-Sunday schedule.

That has to be a real contributory factor in the poor start made by Burnley although they have also been a little unlucky in fixtures as teams have taken the chances they have created and Burnley's defence has not been as strong as it was last season.

I do expect things to turn around for Burnley now they are back to solely concentrating on the Premier League and they look a little underrated to earn a result in the first live game on Sunday afternoon.

Wolves have played well this season and could have earned more than the 5 points they have put on the board, but they haven't been so strong to think they deserve to be as short a price to win this fixture. The team do look decent enough going forward, but Wolves have yet to bring in the defensive strength which formed the platform of their success in the Championship as they won that Division in May.

Both teams should have their chances in this one and I am anticipating a close match. I don't think Burnley will defend as poorly as they have in August now the players are going to be more rested to put in the effort they need in the Premier League fixtures they have coming up and I think that makes them an interesting back on the Asian Handicap this weekend.

While I can understand why Wolves are favourites to win, this is a team still learning how to cope with the higher level and demands of the Premier League compared with the Championship. They do have players that could provide a magic moment or two to win this one, but Burnley are capable of scoring here which could make it very difficult for Wolves to win the game.

Backing the away team with the start on the Asian Handicap means half the stake would be returned if Burnley lose by a single goal margin, but I do think Sean Dyche's men can earn a result on Sunday. They will have to play better than they were going into the international break, but Burnley could also have a little bit more luck than they have enjoyed so far in the 2018/19 season and that could see Burnley earn a 'surprise' positive result in this one.


Everton v West Ham United Pick: There may be a contrasting feeling of confidence in the squads that are meeting in the second live Premier League game on Sunday afternoon, but Everton and West Ham United may be more closely matched than the oddsmakers think.

The injuries and suspensions in the Everton squad makes them vulnerable even at home with a number of defensive absentees giving West Ham United a chance. As poor as the results have been for The Hammers, they have shown some strength going forward and I think West Ham United will be able to cause some problems for their hosts.

Everton are missing some key attacking players, most notably Richarlison, but they are facing a West Ham United defence which has struggled. Theo Walcott and Dominic Calvert-Lewin's availability gives Everton some options going forward and this West Ham United team have given up some big chances in their games already this season which Everton will feel they can expose.

Both managers have attacking intentions too and it does feel like a fixture that is going to produce at least three goals on the day. My gut feeling is that West Ham United may snap a poor recent record at Goodison Park by earning a positive result in this one, but I will favour backing goals to be shared out with both Marco Silva and Manuel Pellegrini asking their team to get forward and score goals.

Everton have looked as vulnerable as West Ham United defensively and I can see the attacking players leading the way in an entertaining match.


Southampton v Brighton Pick: The final game of the Premier League weekend comes from St Mary's on Monday evening and both Southampton and Brighton will be keen to stamp their authority on this south coast rivalry.

Brighton have motivation for revenge after being beaten by Southampton in the League Cup Second Round in August, but they have a very poor away record over the last twelve months which can't be ignored.

You have to respect the fact that Brighton did earn a 1-1 draw at St Mary's in the Premier League, but they have lost 7 of their last 8 away games and this is a team who struggle to create chances on their travels. Defensively they have not been as strong as they can be at the Amex Stadium and Southampton have some decent attacking players who will feel they can do enough to help Mark Hughes' men earn a third consecutive win in all competitions.

I do think Southampton can be more effective as a counter attacking team which may have contributed to their run of 1 win from their last 13 home Premier League games. Here there is more onus on Southampton to get forward which may not suit them as much as inviting the pressure to come onto them, but I think The Saints are playing well enough to win this one.

Chris Hughton's team will have to be a lot better defensively to avoid defeat as they can't match the scoring output of other clubs in the Premier League. They have been better at home, like last season, but playing away from the Amex Stadium has been more of a challenge for them and I think Southampton can be backed on the Asian Handicap which will at least return half the stake in the event of a draw.

MY PICKS: Tottenham Hotspur + 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Bournemouth-Leicester City Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Chelsea - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Crystal Palace 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City - 2.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arsenal @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Manchester United @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Burnley + 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Everton-West Ham United Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Southampton - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

September Update: 1-5, - 6.50 Units (12 Units Staked, - 54.17% Yield)