Tennis Picks 2018 (September 19th)

It wasn't an ideal start to the Tennis Picks this week but I have to admit I was a little frustrated with a couple of the Picks made on Tuesday.

Victoria Azarenka and Ashleigh Barty both had enough chances to cover in their matches, but they waited too long to make their move although I don't think either will care as they are through to the next Round which is the only aim for the player.

On another day I would have had both return as a winner, but thankfully Daniil Medvedev prevented it being a complete rubbish of a day by beating Joao Sousa comfortably enough in their match in St Petersburg later in the day.

Wednesday looks to be a busier day all around and that means I have a number of Tennis Picks which cover three tournaments. I will add a couple from ATP Metz once the market has been formulated and those will be added to this thread.


Karolina Pliskova - 4.5 games v Daria Gavrilova: There is something of a revenge mission for Karolina Pliskova to take part in in this Second Round match as she faces Daria Gavrilova. The latter beat Karolina's twin sister in the First Round in Tokyo, but Gavrilova has struggled when she has faced the big hitting and more consistent Karolina Pliskova in the past.

The Gavrilova win over Kristyna Pliskova came in a very close match and it might have given her a real idea of what kind of power she is facing in this match. However she is going to have to dig deep in this one too even if Karolina Pliskova has not been in the best of form in the second half of the season.

Even the Pliskova numbers have taken a big hit in that down turn in form but she was looking like she could get back towards her best tennis at the US Open. The defeat to Serena Williams will have hurt, but Pliskova should be very good in the conditions in Tokyo as long as she has the serve working like it can.

No one will doubt this is a very big number for Pliskova to cover considering the recent form she has been in. However I do think the big serve is going to allow Pliskova to tee off on the Gavrilova serve and put all the pressure on the Australian who has been dominated by this Pliskova sister in the past.

Motivation of getting one back for her sister should also inspire Pliskova and I think she is capable of winning this match and covering the number against the weaker Gavrilova serve.


Karen Khachanov - 1.5 games v Stan Wawrinka: It has been a tough road back from injury for Stan Wawrinka but there are signs that he is making a positive progress. He will be looking for a strong end to 2018 which can help Wawrinka improve his World Ranking to a point he can get back to entering the big tournaments directly rather than with a Wild Card.

At the moment Wawrinka is up to 88 in the World Rankings and he has no points to defend in the last couple of months so will be looking to get back inside the top 50 before the Australian Open begins in January. His win over Aljaz Bedene was a good one in the First Round, but Wawrinka faces a much tougher opponent in the Second Round.

Karen Khachanov had a stunning match with Rafael Nadal at the US Open and he has all the intangibles which suggests he could be a future Grand Slam winner. The Russian has already won a title on the indoor hard courts in 2018 and the home fans should be firmly behind him when he gets his St Petersburg tournament underway.

The numbers Khachanov has produced on the hard courts have been superior to the ones that Wawrinka has been able to come up with and I think that will be a difference maker in this match. As much as Wawrinka has shown some improvement over the last couple of months since the move to the North American hard courts, he is still having some troubles with the return of serve and I don't think that will be helped by a big server like Khachanov.

The Russian has an edge when it comes to the percentage of service games held as well as the percentage of points won behind serve. Khachanov has also produced the better return numbers on this surface as he is breaking 22% of the time compared with Wawrinka down at 16% and that is a significant difference in what looks a close match on the face of things.

Both players were only stopped by some of the biggest names on the Tour in their last few hard court tournaments which means both Khachanov and Wawrinka should play with some real confidence. The latter does have a win here in St Petersburg under his belt so could be more familiar with the conditions at play, but Khachanov should receive plenty of support and I think he will edge out Wawrinka and do enough to cover this number.


Benoit Paire - 3.5 games v Quentin Halys: You can't always tell what you're going to get with Benoit Paire, but he should be well supported by the fans in Metz after a stunning display for France in the Davis Cup. His crushing win over Pablo Carreno Busta helped France win one rubber in their 3-2 win over Spain in the Davis Cup Semi Final this past weekend and that should mean Paire is playing with some real confidence.

His opponent is compatriot Quentin Halys who is also going to be riding some confidence into this tournament. Last week Halys reached the Final of a Challenger event in Istanbul but this is a big step up for a player that has not been used to playing main ATP Tour matches throughout his career.

Halys might not have had many hard court matches on the main ATP Tour as he is 1-3 in that situation in 2018. However the Frenchman has shown improvement in his return game while keeping himself steady behind serve and that makes him pretty dangerous in this one.

As well as Paire played at the US Open in a tight loss to Roger Federer and keeping in mind the strong win in the Davis Cup this past Friday it does have to be said that Paire has produced declining numbers in hard court matches in recent years. The serve has particularly been vulnerable which may give Halys a chance for the upset, although it will mean the lower Ranked Frenchman has found a way to get more out of his return game.

Paire's successes on the hard courts have come thanks to a stronger return game than in previous years which has made up for some of the decline in the service numbers. I do think that will make Paire vulnerable the deeper he goes into the hard court tournaments and the better players he comes up against, but in this one I think he rides the momentum of the weekend and can get the better of an opponent who may be more fatigued.

There is no doubt that Paire is a hard player to trust, but I will back him to get the better of Halys in this one with a couple of key breaks of serve helping him cover the number.


Kei Nishikori - 3.5 games v Peter Gojowczyk: At the start of 2018 there were a number of big name players on the men's Tour who were returning from long-term injuries and one of those was Kei Nishikori. It is perhaps not a big surprise that Nishikori has been as inconsistent as he has for much of the season with that in mind, but he remains a solid hard court player.

I think he can get the better of Peter Gojowczyk in this Second Round match in Metz because there are some doubts about the German which won't have been erased by beating Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the First Round. Tsonga has missed much of 2018 with an injury and was making his first appearance on a tennis court in a competitive match in months and so I won't read too much into the Gojowczyk win.

There have been some injury concerns Gojowczyk has been dealing with himself and being anything less than 100% for this match would make it that much tougher.

To be fair to the German he has played well on the hard courts in 2018 with a strong hold percentage, although there is room to improve when it comes to the return of serve. That is an area that Nishikori will want to improve too going into 2019, but the Japanese player has been more effective than Gojowczyk and I do think that can make the difference in this match.

It also has to be pointed out that Gojowczyk's numbers on the hard courts have taken a considerable dent over the last couple of months as he has struggled with some kind of fitness issue. His hold and break percentages have both dropped in that period and I think Nishikori is good enough to find a way to break him at least once in the first two sets which may help him overcome the number set by the layers.


Richard Gasquet - 4.5 games v Constant Lestienne: On an indoor hard court this will always feel like a big number no matter which two players are competing on the main ATP Tour simply because of the toughness of breaking an opponent on the surface. That is probably the biggest issue for Richard Gasquet when he takes on his compatriot Constant Lestienne who is making his first appearance in a main ATP tournament this week.

Lestienne didn't have that spot handed to him as he came through a couple of Qualifers and then beat Jurgen Zopp in the First Round. There is little doubt that he will pose a threat having won more hard court matches this season than Richard Gasquet has played, although you have to also accept the vast majority of those have been played at a lower level than what he is facing here in Metz.

The numbers have been impressive from Lestienne on both serve and return on the hard courts and you can't dismiss what confidence can do to a player. With all the wins behind him, Lestienne will feel very good about his game as long as he is not mentally overwhelmed with playing one of the best players from his home nation.

I expect the Qualifier to know a lot more about Gasquet than the other way around, but Lestienne's numbers have taken a hit whenever he has faced top 100 Ranked opponents on this surface. Lestienne did beat Marcos Baghdatis earlier in 2018, but his hold and break percentage have dropped markedly when facing the top 100 Ranked opponents both in 2018 and his career in general.

Richard Gasquet has not been at his best on the hard courts over the course of 2018 but he did reach the Third Round at the US Open and beat a couple of opponents who are stronger than the one he will see here. Gasquet is also a strong indoor hard court player, especially when he plays in France, and his overall numbers are that much stronger than Lestienne's that I think he can be backed to cover the number.

It may only take a couple of breaks of serve to do that, but I expect Gasquet to put Lestienne under pressure to at least get another one on top of that. With that in mind I will back Gasquet to cover what I consider to be a big indoor hard court number on the ATP circuit, but at odds against I do think that is worth chancing.

MY PICKS: Karolina Pliskova - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Karen Khachanov - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Benoit Paire - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 4.5 Games @ 2.25 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-2, - 2.18 Units (6 Units Staked, - 36.33% Yield)