College Football Week 5 Picks 2018 (September 29th)

I hadn't enjoyed the first three weeks of the College Football season with some up and down results, but Week 4 proved to be the best week so far of the 2018 season.

It gives me something to build on as we enter Week 5 when some of the potential Play Off scenarios will begin to clear up with some big games in the Big 12 and Big Ten Conferences.

There is also an important Notre Dame-Stanford game to be played in Week 5 which is certainly going to put the losing team in a very difficult position to make the final four.

All of that makes for another fun weekend of College Football games and my Picks from Week 5 can be seen below.


Central Michigan Chippewas @ Michigan State Spartans Pick: It will take something quite astonishing for the 1-3 Central Michigan Chippewas to upset the 2-1 Michigan State Spartans, but let's be honest this pick has nothing to do with which team I think is going to win the game. Instead my belief is the Michigan State Spartans will be able to do enough on both sides of the ball to win and cover what looks to be a very big number on paper.

Games like this are usually used as teaching moments for players by the bigger schools and that can make it easier for the underdog to find a backdoor cover with these kinds of big numbers. That is a potential worry for me, but Michigan State have been far from at their best in 2018 and I think Mark Dantonio will be looking for his team to secure a big win before they enter their tough Big Ten stretch of games that are left.

The Spartans are in a tough Division with the likes of Penn State, Ohio State and Michigan all considered better teams than Michigan State. However they did get off to a positive 1-0 start in Conference play by winning on the road at the Indiana Hoosiers in Week 4.

There is still room for improvement as I have alluded to and the return of LJ Scott could be the key for the Michigan State Spartans. While the Running Back won't have his health put in jeopardy by playing the full game in Week 5, I do think Scott's return can help spark a running game that has been struggling in his absence.

More was expected from the Michigan State Offensive Line than we have seen, but they can get uncorked against a Central Michigan team who have allowed almost 200 yards per game on the ground and that despite facing three out of four teams who are significantly weaker than Michigan State.

Running the ball eases the pressure on Quarter Back Brian Lewerke who has some good numbers but who has been blighted with 4 Interceptions to go with the 5 Touchdown passes he has thrown. With a strong running game next to him, Lewerke should be able to have some real success against the Chippewas Secondary and it will also bode well for the Spartans in the Big Ten games they have remaining.

Central Michigan were beaten by 20 points the last time they visited Spartan Stadium in 2015, but they are going to need some luck in this one after a pretty rough start to the season. It looks like the Chippewas will be going forward with Tommy Lazzaro as the Quarter Back for the foreseeable future as he offers a running threat to the position which may be the spark they need to get some consistency from the Offense.

This doesn't look the weekend for that consistency to be displayed though as the Spartans continue to be a tough Defensive unit that may match up very well with Central Michigan. The Spartans have only allowed 1.1 yards per carry to opposing teams this season which means Lazzaro is going to have to have a monster game to change things and prevent being left in third and long on a regular basis.

While the Spartans Secondary have struggled at times, Central Michigan may not be able to take full advantage. For starters the Offensive Line is going to do well to keep Michigan State out of the backfield on obvious passing downs while turnovers have been a feature of this Spartans Secondary that can provide them the extra possessions to cover a spread which is larger than four converted Touchdowns.

The Chippewas have been strong against the spread this season which I have to respect, but Michigan State will be playing with a point to prove to themselves and I think they clear the number and improve their 4-2 record against the spread as the home favourite over the last thirteen months.


Syracuse Orange @ Clemson Tigers Pick: Not many would have tipped up two 4-0 teams from the ACC meeting when looking at this game in Week 5, but that is where the Clemson Tigers and Syracuse Orange find themselves. The Tigers being here is no surprise as one of the leading contenders to make the College Football Play Offs, while they are searching for a 5-0 start to a season for the fourth consecutive year.

On the other hand the Orange are 4-0 for just the third time in almost 60 years and they have already upset the Florida State Seminoles in this Division in 2018.

Make no mistake about it that this is a big step up from the Seminoles to the Tigers especially with this game being on the road for Syracuse. They are now facing a team who are tipped to return to the College Football Play Off and that means everything Syracuse do has to be almost perfect.

The Tigers will be playing with revenge too which cannot be underestimated. That loss in Syracuse put Clemson in danger of missing the Play Offs and they were the only team beat the Tigers in the regular season which won't have been easily forgotten.

Clemson have made a big move at Quarter Back by announcing Trevor Lawrence as the starter which resulted in Kelly Bryant asking for a transfer. Much of the success of this season is going to depend on whether Lawrence can find the consistency to guide Clemson into the Play Offs, but so far the Quarter Back has looked very strong and provides a real balance to the Tigers Offensive unit with a strong arm displayed.

Lawrence could announce himself on the big stage with a strong showing against the Syracuse Orange Secondary which has shown it has some holes despite the 4-0 start. The key for Syracuse will be to get their pass rush pinning their ears back and getting after Lawrence and perhaps forcing some mistakes throwing into a ball-hawking Secondary, but it will be all the more difficult if the Orange can't stop Clemson running the ball.

So far it has been a struggle for teams to do that and so it won't be a big surprise if Clemson are moving the chains throughout this game and forcing Syracuse to try and keep up in a potential shoot out.

Last week Syracuse could not shut down the Connecticut Huskies on the ground so they have to believe they are going to need to score points to earn the upset here. There is a chance they can do that with a dual threat Quarter Back in Eric Dungey who has been in fine form in 2018 and the whole team look much more comfortable in Don Babers systems in the third year under this Head Coach.

The dual threat of Dungey should mean Syracuse can at least run the ball bette than other opponents that Clemson have faced have been able to do. It will be key for the Orange as it can help slow down what has been a fierce pass rush that the Tigers have produced and that will at least give Syracuse the chance to stay within a big number in this Week 5 game.

Syracuse have gone 7-3 against the spread as the road underdog under Babers and I think he can help find a few big plays that helps Syracuse cover, although another upset of the Tigers looks beyond them.


Cincinnati Bearcats @ Connecticut Huskies Pick: After completing the non-Conference portion of their schedule with a 4-0 record thanks to a couple of road upsets, the Cincinnati Bearcats play their first American Athletic Conference game of the 2018 season. They are going into Week 5 as a huge favourite to get the better of the Connecticut Huskies who are 1-3 and have been having some major problems Defensively.

Randy Edsall will be given time as the Head Coach of the Huskies to let his recruiting come to fruition, but this season looks a difficult one for the team to suffer through. They only had 2 returning starters Defensively and Edsall is going to give a lot of young players a chance in the hope that the experiences will see them grow into a tough unit in 2019.

The three games against the FBS teams for the Huskies have been pretty horrific viewing. They have given up at least 49 points in each of those losses and being outgained in terms of yards by at least 166 each time which is not going to be a good formula in trying to win games.

Offensively Connecticut could be dangerous if teams completely disregard them as a viable team and that is what makes these kind of big numbers tough for teams to cover. The Huskies have shown they can run the ball and so the Cincinnati Bearcats Defensive Line have to shown their strength up front after making a very strong start to the season.

This is the key battle in the trenches to determine if Connecticut can do enough to at least cover the number for the firs time this season, but I do lean towards the Bearcats to win up front. It will put some immense pressure on whoever gets the call as the Quarter Back in Week 5 as they could find themselves under pressure from the pass rush while throwing into a Secondary that have played well to open 2018.

Running the ball should be much less of a chore for the Bearcats throughout this game and I think that is where they can take off huge chunks of yardage and open things up for the passing game. The Bearcats Offensive Line have opened up some big holes for Michael Warren II already, but now face a horrific Connecticut Defensive Line who have allowed 309 yards on the ground per game and at a staggering 8 yards per carry.

With Cincinnati likely moving the chains with ease on the ground, Desmond Ridder should be able to have his best passing game at Quarter Back. The Huskies inexperienced Secondary have allowed 355 passing yards per game and play-action could be huge for Ridder who is also capable of making plays with his legs and it all points to a strong win for the Bearcats.

Backing a road favourite to cover can be haphazard, especially when they are perhaps not one of the strongest teams in the College Football world. However I do think the Huskies are one of the weakest teams in the FBS, and even searching for revenge for a single point loss to the Bearcats at the end of the 2017 regular season may not be enough to make this a close contest.

The favourite is 6-2 against the spread in the last eight of this series and I will look for Cincinnati to improve that number.


Tennessee Volunteers @ Georgia Bulldogs Pick: This is an SEC Conference game so you can understand why the public are backing the 2-2 Tennessee Volunteers who have been given a huge start on the handicap. They may have been blown out at home in their first SEC game by the Florida Gators, but Joe Public are convinced that having over four converted Touchdowns worth of points is enough to back the underdog.

Usually I wouldn't argue too much with that but the Georgia Bulldogs look a team on a mission to get back to the College Football Play Offs and win the National Title after losing the Championship Game in 2017. Some will argue the Bulldogs blew their opportunity to do that when losing in Overtime, but they've brought back enough key players to believe they can go one better this time around.

Blowing out two of the better teams in the SEC East on the road should be an encouragement to the chances of doing that, but Georgia have high expectations and Head Coach Kirby Smart has been demanding better from the players. That only highlights how good Smart thinks this Georgia team can be and I don't anticipate any foot coming off the gas in this one if they can get on top of Tennessee.

Revenge may motivate the Volunteers who were blown out 41-0 at home by the Bulldogs last season, but beating them in Athens is a big test. The last three teams to visit Sanford Stadium have been brutalised between the hedges and this Bulldogs team looks Offensively very strong.

I expect they are going to be able to run the ball with consistency this weekend having seen the Offensive Line called out by Kirby Smart last week. Running the ball is the staple of this Bulldogs Offense and opens everything else up and they should have success against a Volunteers Defensive Line that has allowed 4.6 yards per carry on the season.

That will make things that much easier for Jacob Fromm who took over as the starting Quarter Back midway during the 2017 season from Jacob Eason who has since transferred to the Washington Huskies. Fromm should find plenty of time to throw the ball if the Bulldogs are running it as effectively as they should be able to do and that should see Georgia score plenty of points.

The key for the cover will be the support from the Defensive unit and after seeing Tennessee turn the ball over six times last week it is possible the Bulldogs will get that too. So far in 2018 the Volunteers have beaten the two teams they would have expected to do, but they have been blown out by the West Virginia Mountaineers and Florida Gators and neither team is up to the level that this Georgia team can reach.

Jarrett Guarantano is expected to remain in as the starting Quarter Back despite being banged around by the Gators last week, but he will need to be supported by the run to have consistent success moving the chains. However running the ball against Georgia is far from an easy task and there will be more pressure on Guarantano if his team have fallen into an early hole.

He won't be under siege from the Georgia pass rush, but Guarantano will find it tough to find holes in this Bulldogs Secondary and the chance of seeing more turnovers can't be ignored. Those could be critical in Georgia being able to cover what is a huge number on paper but going against the public looks a decent spot for me here.

Games between these Divisional rivals have tended to be very close in the past, but last year the Bulldogs destroyed Tennessee on the road and can do the same at home in 2018. Kirby Smart has demanded his team play better and they can give him a big win to make a statement in this tough Conference.

The Bulldogs didn't cover a similar number in a home win over Missouri in 2017, but I don't think Tennessee will be able to score as many points as they did and that should give Georgia the chance to pull away.


Texas Longhorns @ Kansas State Wildcats Pick: Bill Synder's Kansas State Wildcats have a deserved reputation for being a tough home underdog to oppose with a strong record against the numbers since he returned as Head Coach of the school. That always makes it tough to oppose them in this spot, but I do think the current version of the Wildcats is going to have a tough time against the improving Texas Longhorns.

It is a a big season for Tom Herman in Texas even though this is only his second year as the Head Coach of a proud school. However the 7-6 record in 2017 coupled with an opening week upset defeat at the Maryland Terrapins has increased the pressure on what was seen to be a huge appointment when Herman first arrived as Head Coach.

The criticism of losing the recruiting battle in the rich fields of Texas is going to be levelled at Herman again if Texas are not contenders in the Big 12 this season, but the Longhorns have bounced back from their loss to Maryland and come into Week 5 with a 3-1 record. That includes an upset win over the TCU Horned Frogs in Week 4, but Herman will be preaching it is all about backing that up in Week 5.

Kansas State are 2-2 in 2018, but their two losses to Mississippi State Bulldogs and West Virginia Mountaineers have come by 21 points and 29 points respectively. They have been outgained by at least 146 yards in both losses too and the Wildcats will have to be a lot better to move the ball against the Longhorns Defensive unit.

It all begins up front for the Longhorns who have been strong on the Defensive Line and they will feel they can get the better of the Wildcats Offensive Line who have not opened the kind of holes Synder would have expected of them. The Head Coach is demanding an all around improvement from Kansas State, but even their dual threat Quarter Backs might not be able to get a lot of change from the Texas Defensive Line when it comes to running the ball.

Both Skylar Thompson and Alex Delton have not been as consistent through the air as they would have hoped to be from the Quarter Back position. Some of the issues have come in protection and that has led to more mistakes than a team like the Kansas City Wildcats would be hoping for and it all leads to a pressurised situation for the team trying to beat better ones.

Running the ball has been an issue for the Texas Longhorns this season but this game might provide them the best chance to get untracked. You have to expect they will stay with the run as long as possible and the Longhorns will be facing a Kansas State Defensive Line who have allowed 5.6 yards per carry so I do expect an improvement in the Texas numbers this week.

It should be music to the ears of Quarter Back Sam Ehlinger who has carried Texas to success since the opening week defeat at Maryland. Since then Ehlinger has thrown 9 Touchdown passes with no Interceptions and I would expect him to have a very strong game if the Longhorns are running the ball even slightly better than they have been.

With a limited pass rush to face, Ehlinger may have time to make his plays against a Secondary who have created some turnovers but who have also given up some decent amount of yards. It will bode well for the Longhorns and I do think another clean game from the Quarter Back will make it very difficult to beat them this week and perhaps even to keep it close.

Texas do have a terrible record against the spread when facing Kansas State in recent games which is a concern. The Red River Rivalry game is up next too which may be a distraction, but I like the way Texas match up with the Wildcats and will look for them to win by double digits here.


Florida Gators @ Mississippi State Bulldogs Pick: There will be some serious emotions all around in this SEC Conference game as Dan Mullen returns to Starkville after deciding to end his nine year tenure as Head Coach of the Mississippi State Bulldogs to take the same role with the Florida Gators.

The fans will appreciate what Mullen did for their team in his time with the Mississippi State Bulldogs, but the early return means there should be plenty of familiarity around which can help the new Florida Head Coach. It could also be a game with some serious Bowl implications as Florida come in with a 1-1 SEC record and Mississippi State are 0-1 and both teams have suffered surprising losses to the Kentucky Wildcats.

Another Conference loss for either team could make it very difficult to reach the six wins they will need to become Bowl eligibility, while it won't be lost on either how important winning out could be if they want to take part in a really big Bowl.

Mullen was taking over a good situation with the Florida Gators even if the team finished with a poor 4-7 record in the 2017 season. It was a season of injury and upheaval for the Gators and the team have looked very much capable of finishing with a winning record this time around.

They look a team who should be able to give Mississippi State's Defensive Line something to think about as there has been a regression with the rushing Defense numbers as the competition has stepped up. This week they face a very tough Florida Offensive Line who have been able to create spaces to run the ball and they will be looking to get that aspect of their game established to keep things in check for Quarter Back Feleipe Franks.

Franks will have to be careful against the Bulldogs Secondary which has played well, while the pass rush is one to be respected. However I would think Mullen has got the right plays up his sleeve to make sure the Gators have enough success Offensively to give the Bulldogs a real game as the road underdog.

It is that knowledge that could be important in trying to slow down Nick Fitzgerald when he is running the Mississippi State Offense. Things begin up front and the Florida Defensive Line has been something of a disappointment when it comes to stopping the run this season which is an area the Bulldogs will look to exploit.

Fitzgerald is a dual threat Quarter Back, but the Bulldogs have been able to make significant gains on the ground behind whoever runs thanks to the Offensive Line play. I can see the Bulldogs bullying the Florida Defensive Line like other teams have this season and that should mean Fitzgerald is able to find time to throw into the Secondary which is the strength of the Gators team.

Looking after the ball is going to be very important for both teams and the one that does that better is likely going to come away with the victory. Dan Mullen's knowledge of the Bulldogs has to be a huge factor and his Bulldogs team were 9-5 against the spread as a road underdog in his last five seasons.

With the points being given to the road team in this one, I will back Florida to at least keep this close with the inside information Dan Mullen will have given his new team all week.


Utah Utes @ Washington State Cougars Pick: There may have been an outside hope for the Utah Utes to win the Pac-12 Conference and then move into the College Football Play Offs, but that is over after going 2-1 in the early portion of the 2018 season. The loss to the Washington Huskies prior to the bye week has already put the Utes in a tough position when it comes to getting into the Pac-12 Championship Game, but that position will even tougher if they drop this game in Week 5.

The Washington Huskies were expected to take a step back under Mike Leach after losing some key players and that was despite finishing three successive seasons with a winning record. However they have been better than advertised with a 3-1 start to 2018, although they have also dropped their opening Pac-12 Conference game.

Much will always depend on how effective the 'Air Raid' system is working to determine how well Leach's teams do and they have opened up with some strong numbers despite losing one Quarter Back to the NFL and the player most likely to take over that spot sadly committed suicide.

The Cougars have an experienced Quarter Back who came in as a transfer and they have averaged over 400 passing yards per game to give themselves a chance in every game they have played. There is a real challenge in front of them though as they face one of the better Defensive units in College Football and it is going to be a test for Gardner Minshew to move the chains with any consistency.

The Quarter Back will not really be helped by a running game so everything will be on the Minshew arm. He will have to be wary of some of the pressure the Utes have generated up front as well as looking after the ball if the Cougars are going to have a chance of the upset despite being at home.

A bigger factor that could help Washington State might be how well the Defensive unit has played which could be a surprise to read. The Offense usually generates the headlines, but the Defensive unit returned 6 starters from the strong 2017 team and they look capable of putting the pressure on Utah's struggling Offensive unit.

Zack Moss has been able to run the ball well enough for the Utes and has helped the team generate 4.7 yards per carry, but it won't be easy against this Cougars Defensive Line who have opened up the season strong up front. Last season Washington State held teams to 4.2 yards per carry, but they opened up 2018 by holding teams to 3.2 yards per carry and it will be important for Washington State to try and force Utah to become one-dimensional.

You can't dispute that Tyler Huntley has played well enough at Quarter Back, but it will be a tough game for him if the Cougars are able to restrict the Moss and the rushing Offense. Huntley has some decent numbers, but his Offensive Line has struggled in pass protection and Washington State have generated plenty of pressure up front to think they can put the Quarter Back in an uncomfortable position.

The Washington State Secondary have played the pass well enough so far this season but the pressure up front has seen them turn the ball over and that could be the difference maker in a close game.

Washington State are 5-1 against the spread in the last six in the series between these Conference rivals while they are also 3-1 against the spread in the last three seasons as the home underdog. I will look for the Cougars to do enough to cover as the home underdog here too and will have the small amount of points on my side.


Ohio State Buckeyes @ Penn State Nittany Lions Pick: The biggest game of the weekend comes from the Big Ten and the winner of the Penn State Nittany Lions and Ohio State Buckeyes game will have the inside track to win the Division. That will mean they go into the Big Ten Championship Game as the favourite to win the Conference and then earn a spot in the College Football Play Off in December.

You can only underestimate how important this game is for both teams in a tough Big Ten East Division in which they reside and the night game setting makes this an exciting game to watch.

Both teams are unbeaten and have rarely looked like losing that record in their opening four games and both come into this weekend off strong wins so there won't be many excuses offered from the losing team.

Mike Weber is a key player for the Buckeyes and the Running Back is expected to be passed fit for this Week 5 game. He will be key in trying to establish the run for Ohio State against a strong Penn State Defensive Line and that could be a key battle in the outcome of the game.

If the Buckeyes can run the ball effectively they will make life that much easier for Dwayne Haskins who has shown he can be a dual threat from the Quarter Back position. Haskins will help Weber in establishing the run, and he has been very strong throwing the ball with just one pick in 2018.

That balance is important for Ohio State who will be faced with a Penn State pass rush that will believe they can challenge the Buckeyes Offensive Line and at least put Haskins under some real pressure. Even then it is hard to imagine Ohio State don't put up some decent numbers in this game as they try to silence what is going to be a loud and hostile crowd.

Penn State have a strong dual threat Quarter Back of their own in Trace McSorley who is a leading Heisman contender in 2018. When they lost Saquon Barkley to the NFL it was supposed to be very tough for Penn State to fill his shoes, but the team have got together to produce some very strong rushing numbers which have been helped by what McSorley has been able to do.

Miles Sanders is going to have a bigger role from Running Back too but it is very important for Penn State to establish the run. As strong as McSorley's numbers have been on the ground, he has thrown an Interception in two straight games and has to be kept in third and manageable to be most effective.

If he can do that McSorley could have a decent passing game too as it will slow down an Ohio State pass rush which has lost a key piece in Nick Bosa. The absence of Bosa will be music to the ears of the Penn State Offensive Line and they will believe they can give their Quarter Back time to make some big plays in this one.

The Ohio State Secondary has been able to make some plays to turn the ball over which has to be considered by McSorley and the picks he has thrown in back to back games. Playing a clean game will be imperative for both teams and I am surprised the Nittany Lions are getting more than a Field Goal worth of points in what is likely to be a close and competitive game.

The home team is 4-1 against the spread in the last five in this series and Penn State are 3-1 against the spread against the Buckeyes under James Franklin. I do think Penn State can win this game outright and going against the public in what is the biggest game of the weekend is not a position I am disappointed in being.

Taking the points with the home underdog looks the right play here.

MY PICKS: Michigan State Spartans - 28.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Syracuse Orange + 25 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Cincinnati Bearcats - 17 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Georgia Bulldogs - 31 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Texas Longhorns - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Florida + 7 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Washington State Cougars + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Penn State Nittany Lions + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Week 4: 7-4, + 2.41 Units (11 Units Staked, + 21.91% Yield)
Week 3: 5-5, - 0.55 Units (10 Units Staked, - 5.5% Yield)
Week 2: 6-5, + 0.52 Units (11 Units Staked, + 4.73% Yield)