Weekend Football Picks 2018 (September 22-23)

There will be a slight change to the Weekend Football Picks thread from next when I will pick some Fantasy Players from each match with one Goalkeeper/Defender, Midfielder and Attacking option picked from each match.

Sometimes it will be an obvious choice, but I will work on the best way to approach the change to the thread so it will be a work in progress.

September has been a mixed month for the Football Picks after another up and down week, but there are still a couple of weeks left to help produce a strong winning record to back up the opening salvo in August.

Hopefully that begins this weekend with the Premier League fixtures being played on Saturday and Sunday.


Fulham v Watford Pick: The opening game of the Premier League weekend sees Fulham and Watford both looking to bounce back from defeats last time out. Both teams were beaten by opponents from Manchester in games they would have been set as the underdog, but both clubs will be looking at this fixture as a much more winnable one.

It has been a great start to the season for Watford who won their first 5 games in all competitions but I do wonder if the defeat to Manchester United has dented their confidence. They have to be respected for some of the strong performances they have put in though and Watford have shown they are a team that can create chances which will make them dangerous.

Fulham have not made as positive an impression on the League table as Watford, but they have shown there is enough in the squad to avoid an immediate return to the Championship. However there has to be a slight worry with the amount of chances Fulham have allowed opponents to create against them in their opening League games.

It is a part of the style of play that Fulham employ with an attacking mindset meaning they are leaving more gaps in the back than they would like. Even in the home win over Burnley, Fulham took their chances but gave up some good opportunities for their visitors and this is a team that looks like they could be involved in some really high scoring games until the mentality changes.

I would be surprised if that changes this weekend as Fulham look for the three points in front of their own fans. They should cause Watford some real problems when they get forward, but Fulham have also allowed their last couple of opponents to create a host of great chances against them.

They won't be the only one to do that when facing Manchester City away from home, but Brighton were another who created a lot of chances against Fulham. Burnley did the same at Craven Cottage and I think this fixture has all the makings of producing at least three goals shared out with plenty of attacking intent on display.


Burnley v Bournemouth Pick: There was a real feeling that there would be some type of regression from Burnley in the new season after a very special 2017/18 season, but there will be some real worries that they could drop significantly from the 7th place finish they had.

The poor start has followed on from a poor end to last season and Burnley have lost 4 of their last 5 Premier League games at Turf Moor which is a real concern. They have not defended anything like the level they were producing twelve months ago and Burnley have found it tough to create significant chances for their strikers which has all come together to see them sit at the bottom of the Premier League table.

At the start of the season they may have circled a home game with Bournemouth as a good chance to bounce back from a poor run, but the visitors have been in fine form to open the season. Even in their 2-0 defeat at Chelsea The Cherries created some good chances and the performances so far suggests they will cause Burnley plenty of problems this weekend.

Bournemouth look like a side that have goals in them and they are in good form so it would be a surprise if they didn't score at Turf Moor considering how Burnley have been defending. In saying that I also think Burnley will have some opportunities as Bournemouth have been far from watertight at the back.

That has been a feature of Bournemouth under Eddie Howe and there are signs that he is yet to find the right defensive formulas which has been covered up by their strong set of results. With that in mind I do think the best way to get onto this fixture is backing both teams to score in a game that could easily go either way.


Cardiff v Manchester City Pick: It is going to be fascinating to see the reaction of the Manchester City players to their 1-2 home loss against Lyon in the Champions League during the week. That came after manager Pep Guardiola had been critical of the lack of composure his team had shown in their 3-0 win over Fulham when Manchester City missed a host of opportunities for more goals in the second half.

That complacency may have seeped over to the Champions League game during the week and I think the Manchester City players will be reminded of their duties by the manager over the two days between fixtures.

Overall the Manchester City form has been decent and they will be expected to be too good for a Cardiff City team who have struggled at both ends of the field in their last couple of League games. Those came against Arsenal and Chelsea and I do think there is a significant difference in squad abilities between these two opponents on Saturday.

Cardiff City do have a week to prepare for the game and Neil Warnock will organise his team to be hard to beat, but containing Manchester City off a defeat won't be easy. The visitors have created plenty of chances in their last couple of Premier League games and Cardiff City have had issues in front of goal which makes me think the big Asian Handicap can be covered by the English Champions.

The Bluebirds have conceded three times to both Norwich City and Arsenal in their last couple of home games and conceded four at Chelsea last weekend. I expect Manchester City will be able to wear down Cardiff City in a similar manner to how Chelsea did and they may also score the late goals to help them overcome a big spread.

It is a big ask for Manchester City who would have overcome this Asian Handicap in only 4 of their 16 away Premier League wins last season. However Cardiff City have looked a little vulnerable defensively and my worst case scenario here feels like Manchester City will earn a push.


Crystal Palace v Newcastle United Pick: On first glance you can see why Crystal Palace may be a popular pick this weekend to beat Newcastle United having won at Huddersfield Town while The Magpies are in the midst of a poor run of form.

However I don't think things are going to be as plain-sailing as that for the home team who look a short price for a team who have yet to score at Selhurst Park this season. Crystal Palace have found themselves to be defensively vulnerable in those home games and I think Newcastle United do enough to at least pose some problems for them.

The bigger concern for Newcastle United fans has to be the amount of chances they have allowed teams to create against them considering Rafa Benitez' reputation for defensive organisation. They have had a tough fixture list which can't be ignored, although I do think Crystal Palace are a team who get forward with pace and will create their chances in this one too.

With a gun to my head I would lean towards Crystal Palace as the more likely winner, but I don't think they have completely convinced this season. That gives Newcastle United a chance to surprise and I think the Crystal Palace attacking mentality will offer up the visitors some strong counter attacking opportunities.

These two teams did play two tight Premier League games last season, but I think the defensive performances of both may mean there are more spaces in this one. Last season the fixture ended 1-1 here, but I think there may be at least one more goal and I will back at least three goals to be shared out between them.


Leicester City v Huddersfield Town Pick: When reports surfaced of Leicester City players being unhappy with the travel arrangements for the trip to Bournemouth last week it made the 4-2 defeat that much more alarming for manager Claude Puel. There have been plenty of suggestions the players are not behind the manager and a group that have seen off two managers since winning the Premier League title, including mastermind Claudio Ranieri, can't always be trusted.

This match will give us all a clear idea as to whether Leicester City have downed tools and it isn't as easy as the layers think it is anyway.

Huddersfield Town have been a goal-shy team since returning to the top flight thirteen months ago and they are struggling to earn the wins they need to move away from the bottom three. The last six months have been very tough, but The Terriers have drawn 4 of their last 5 away Premier League games which suggest they can put things together on their travels.

They are facing a Leicester City team who have been able to fashion chances, but who have been struggling for consistency in the final third. While they play good football up to there, it can be tough for Leicester City to break down teams that won't give them space behind and that is the test for them this weekend.

If the players are downing tools this fixture then takes on another kind of difficulty than simply trying to break down Huddersfield Town. Judging from last weekend it can be easy to make snap judgements but Leicester City had been in decent enough form before that and I am going to suggest they were caught cold out of the international break.

I expect much better from Leicester City at home against a team that has struggled for goals and last season this fixture ended 3-0 in favour of the home team. With Jamie Vardy back after an enforced lay off, I think there is enough quality in the home ranks to find a way to win this one and I will back them on the Asian Handicap to do that.


Liverpool v Southampton Pick: As poor as I suggest Paris Saint-Germain were on Tuesday evening you can't take away anything from Liverpool and the confidence they are playing with at this moment of time. A sixth straight win in all competitions in 2018/19 will give the players belief that they can have one of the most memorable seasons for Liverpool Football Club in a generation.

Now they will go for a seventh win in a row since losing the Champions League Final to Real Madrid and I think it would be very brave to back against Liverpool getting that this weekend when they host Southampton. Liverpool have been creating plenty of chances in front of goal and you have to think it won't be too long before a team is on the wrong end of a heavy defeat from them.

The front three have been in decent, if unspectacular form, but that has been enough for Liverpool who have looked much more cohesive defensively than twelve months ago. Since the signing of Virgil Van Dijk there has been a more assuredness about Liverpool and I think that can help them in this one to express themselves knowing the backdoor is largely going to be kept shut.

And it is a problem for Southampton who have not been defensively strong and who have had a bit of fortune in a couple of their results. No Danny Ings is a blow for The Saints considering the form he has displayed and I do think Mark Hughes will head to Anfield with a damage limitation mindset that should play into Liverpool's hands.

In recent seasons Liverpool have struggled to deal with Southampton but they crushed them 3-0 here last season and I would not be surprised at all if they matched that margin. It is only a matter of time before Liverpool get it all right in the final third and Southampton look ideal opponents do that against after their own defensive problems.

It is a big Asian Handicap to earn a full return, but I think Liverpool are going to be too strong for Southampton and can beat them with something to spare on Saturday.


Manchester United v Wolves Pick: If the truth is told I don't think I remember the last time Manchester United were as a big a price to win a home League game against a newly promoted club as they are this season. I might be wrong, but it looks a big price immediately and says a lot about where the layers think Manchester United are these days and how well Wolves have played on their return to the top flight.

There has been much to admire about the approach play of Wolves, although they will want to show more composure in front of goal having missed a host of chances in their 1-0 win over Burnley. They simply won't get as many opportunities as that against the big teams and Wolves have shown some vulnerability defensively in the step up to the Premier League.

It may also be said that Wolves are heading to Old Trafford at the wrong time with Manchester United rolling to 3 wins in a row since their stunning 0-3 defeat to Tottenham Hotspur. This is the first game back at Old Trafford since that Bank Holiday Monday disaster, but the fans should be in a good mood and feeling positive about the chances of the team.

While there is still some criticism of the performances from Jose Mourinho's team, Manchester United have been creating good chances to open the season. The bigger problem has been defensively as Mourinho has struggled to settle on a centre half pairing, although that problem may be removed with Chris Smalling and Victor Lindelof securing 2 clean sheets in the last 3 games.

I do think Wolves will cause problems with the pace and creativity they have, but I would be surprised if Manchester United didn't create chances and win this game. It could be a good one though and I can't see this one ending 1-0 in favour of the home team unless there are a number of missed chances from both teams.

Instead I think we will see goals and Manchester United will edge out Wolves and so I will back the home team to win a fixture with two or more goals shared out at almost odds against.


Brighton v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: When Manchester United were beaten 0-3 by Tottenham Hotspur on Bank Holiday Monday all of the praise was given to Mauricio Pochettino and Jose Mourinho was left in a dark place. Roles have been reversed since then with Mourinho looking much more jovial in press conferences after three straight wins, while Pochettino had a mild meltdown following a third loss in a row for Tottenham Hotspur at Inter Milan in the Champions League during the week.

It has become a big weekend for Tottenham Hotspur to arrest their current slide and at least build some momentum before the big Champions League game with Barcelona.

However something has not looked right with the Spurs squad and even their 0-3 win at Old Trafford was flattering. The squad have just not gelled together over their last three games and Tottenham Hotspur have looked vulnerable defensively, especially from set pieces and I think that is tested to the full by Brighton this weekend.

Brighton are much better at home than on their travels too and goals have not been a problem for them at the Amex Stadium. They will be encouraged by Tottenham Hotspur's recent performances and I expect Chris Hughton to want his team to get up the pitch and really test this Tottenham Hotspur defence and especially Michel Vorm.

They are a big team so I imagine Brighton will be a threat from set pieces all afternoon even without Pascal Gross. I do think they are playing well enough to score with Tottenham Hotspur's current problems at the back, but Brighton will also give teams a chance and I think they will struggle to keep a clean sheet.

Backing both teams to score is an option, but I am expecting an attacking game to develop and so instead I will look for at least three goals to be shared out. Brighton have scored and conceded at least twice in each of their 2 home games in the Premier League and Tottenham Hotspur have been involved in 6 games in a row that have finished with at least three goals shared out.

Only Manchester United have failed to score against Tottenham Hotspur and I think there will be goals here with the chances created and conceded by the two teams playing on Saturday afternoon.


West Ham United v Chelsea Pick: Over the last few years Chelsea have seemingly gone from one poor season to a very strong one and the start made to the 2018/19 season suggests they can bounce back from Antonio Conte's last year in charge. They did win the FA Cup last season, but missing out on the Champions League was a huge blow to the club and Maurizio Sarri is looking to restore them to the big time at the end of this campaign.

The 5 straight Premier League wins has seen Chelsea move to the top of the Premier League table on goal difference over Liverpool, although they may have dropped at least a couple of places by the time this fixture kicks off on Sunday. That has to be respected as Chelsea have won both away games played at Huddersfield Town and Newcastle United, although they did have to play a Europa League tie on Thursday in Greece.

We have seen in the past that Europa League and Premier League balancing acts have been very difficult for teams, but Chelsea might have it even tougher after being forced to stay in Greece on Thursday night thanks to adverse weather. It means Chelsea are returning to England on Friday afternoon and that lessens the preparation time against an opponent who last played seven days ago.

West Ham United will have been boosted by the win at Everton after losing their opening 4 games in the Premier League, but there is still work to do. Defensively The Hammers are giving up far too many chances and this Chelsea team have looked good going forward under Sarri with Eden Hazard rested and in fine form coming into the weekend.

Marko Arnautovic being absent would be a huge blow for West Ham United too after he showed his influence on the team last weekend in the win at Goodison Park. He will need to pass a late fitness test, but his involvement could be key for West Ham United to try and extend their run of 3 wins from 4 home games against Chelsea.

I do think that the away team are creating enough chances to hurt West Ham United here although the home team could play a part in this one too. I am giving Chelsea the edge despite the travel issues they have faced and I do think they are creating enough chances to edge out West Ham United in a decent game of football on Sunday afternoon.

With the likelihood of West Ham United playing a part and the chances Chelsea have been creating of their own, I will back the visitors to win a game featuring at least three goals.


Arsenal v Everton Pick: The Europa League is likely to be quite a significant competition for Arsenal this season as a second potential avenue into the Champions League, especially with manager Unai Emery's success in the Europa League from his time managing Sevilla.

However the Premier League remains the bread and butter for the club and Arsenal have shown signs of improvement already under Emery. They certainly look capable of challenging for a top four spot in the Premier League and 4 straight wins in all competitions will give Arsenal plenty of confidence to take into this weekend.

Arsenal are really showing good signs as an attacking unit in recent games and that has to be a little intimidating to Everton who have struggled defensively. Teams are being able to create chances against Everton whose style of play under Marco Silva will mean there are spaces for teams to exploit against them and Arsenal have the pace in forward areas to do that.

Playing in the Europa League on Thursday and preparing for a Premier League game on Sunday has been a tough position for teams to be in, but I think Arsenal playing at home on Thursday is important to their recovery. Even though Everton have had a week to prepare I do think the injury list is a tough one to overcome and even the return of Richarlison is not likely going to be enough to turn things in their favour here.

Arsenal have won 5 in a row against Everton and they scored 10 goals in the two Premier League games against them last season. That includes a 5-1 win at the Emirates Stadium and I will be looking for The Gunners to have too much firepower for their visitors and subsequently cover the Asian Handicap.

MY PICKS: Fulham-Watford Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Burnley-Bournemouth Both Teams to Score @ 1.80 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Manchester City - 2 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Crystal Palace-Newcastle United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Leicester City - 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Liverpool - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Manchester United & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Brighton-Tottenham Hotspur Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.80 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

September Update: 15-15, + 1.50 Units (60 Units Staked, + 2.50% Yield)