Tennis Picks 2018 (September 18th)

The 2018 Tennis season is in the final stretch with just two months left before the ATP World Tour Finals come to an end, but there is still plenty of tournaments to get through before we get to that point.

The final Grand Slam of the season may be in the books with the Serena Williams meltdown in the Women's Final still very much in the headlines, but players still have things to achieve to finish off the 2018 season. Improving the World Rankings ahead of the 2019 season is important as that would mean better potential Seeding at the Australian Open which begins just three weeks into the new season, while others are bidding to earn their spot in the WTA Finals and ATP World Tour Finals which round out the 2018 season.

We may have got through the majority of the biggest tournaments in 2018, but that does not mean the Tennis Picks are ready to call it a day for the season. I had a good showing at the US Open to keep the season in a positive position, but there is still work to do to make sure the 2018 season is a good one and keep the momentum to take into the 2019 season.

This week the tournaments are being played across Asia through to Europe and that means there are some vast differences in the times of the matches to be played. The WTA Tour is in Asia and the ATP Tour has a couple of stops in Europe with the two ATP events being played on indoor hard courts.

What that also means for the Tennis Picks this week is that I may stagger adding them to the daily threads I create. On some occasions I will need to add the ATP Picks after the WTA Picks simply because the markets won't be ready at the same time, but that is just something to consider as I look for a positive start to this week's tournaments.


Ashleigh Barty - 4.5 games v Coco Vandeweghe: On first glance this is a very big spread for Ashleigh Barty to cover against a big serving American like Coco Vandeweghe.

However that is not taking into consideration the fact that Vandeweghe has been struggling with an injury and has had a poor season on the hard courts in 2018. That has not been the case for Barty who has been in great form over the last couple of months and who has shown she is capable of dominating in matches she should be.

Ultimately Barty's progress in tournaments have tended to be halted by those players Ranked higher than her but the numbers have remained pretty good throughout 2018.

It will be a big test of the return game for Barty when facing the Vandeweghe serve, but I am not convinced the latter is at full speed at the moment. The American has taken some fairly comfortable losses on the hard courts and I think Barty will get into enough service games to put Vandeweghe under some real pressure.

The Barty serve can be vulnerable, but Vandeweghe can have problems on the return game and that will be true if Barty can get enough first serves into play. While I acknowledge this is a big number, I think Barty is capable of finding the breaks of serve to do that.


Victoria Azarenka - 5.5 games v Kurumi Nara: The second pick from the WTA Tokyo tournament that I am backing is Victoria Azarenka to beat Kurumi Nara and cover what is a big number too.

Nara has not had the best numbers on the hard courts and she has a serve which is likely to be attacked by Azarenka throughout. The key to the cover is clearly the Azarenka serve and whether she is going to be able to get enough first serves in play to at least protect herself against a decent returner in Nara who will have the home fans behind her.

The Azarenka numbers on the hard courts in 2018 are considerably below where she was in 2016 before off court injuries and a pregnancy, but those 2018 numbers are still decent enough to earn some respect.

You can see that Azarenka is not that far away from really putting some consistent runs together and I think the back end of 2018 is important for the former World Number 1 to build her confidence. This is the kind of match that should allow Azarenka to build up her rhythm and I think she is going to be good enough to break down the Nara game, although there will be some early swings in momentum.


Marcos Baghdatis - 2.5 games v Lukas Lacko: There is little doubt that Marcos Baghdatis has seen his best days on a tennis court, but he remains keen on competing and I do think he can win this First Round match in St Petersburg.

There are signs Baghdatis has slipped a little more in 2018, but his break numbers on the hard courts have been decent and I think that makes the difference in this match.

Lukas Lacko is talented, but he has struggled to take his performances to the main ATP level and his return game has been a real problem for him. That isn't helped by the fact that his own serve is one that can be attacked and I think Baghdatis will be the player who has the majority of break point chances during the course of the match.

Of course he does need to take those chances if he is going to make this a more comfortable day in the office than it may otherwise be. Lacko is someone you don't really want to leave to hang around because he is capable of putting together some solid points at pressurised moments.

However his numbers are some way below what Baghdatis has been able to produce on the hard courts in 2018 and I will back the veteran to move through to the Second Round.


Daniil Medvedev - 1.5 games v Joao Sousa: Don't underestimate Joao Sousa who has won an ATP title on the indoor hard courts and who also has played better than his results may suggest on this surface in 2018.

His run at the US Open shows what Sousa is capable of when he gets on a run and he is always involved in close matches that could easily have gone his way with a little more luck.

Even with that in mind, I am going to oppose him with Daniil Medvedev who has been in good form over the last couple of months and looks capable of producing a strong end to 2018. Medvedev is comfortable on the hard courts and his numbers have improved in 2018 compared with 2017 as the youngster continues his positive development on the Tour.

Both players should feel pretty good behind their serve, but Medvedev has the slightly better return game and I think that will make the difference in a close match. The home support will aid Medvedev a bit more and I think he will be able to edge out Sousa in three sets.

MY PICKS: Ashleigh Barty - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Victoria Azarenka - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Marcos Baghdatis - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Season 2018 Update: + 31.74 Units (1467 Units Staked, + 2.16% Yield)