Tennis Picks 2018 (September 20th)

The Tennis tournaments around Asia and Europe continue on Thursday and I am looking to build on what was a better Wednesday than a Tuesday.

I didn't have a lot of luck on Tuesday, but that wasn't the case yesterday and I am hoping there is some momentum to take into the remainder of the week. On Thursday we will get to see the full Quarter Final line up put together in the tournaments being played and there are some big names still involved as they go in search of a title.

The Picks on Thursday come from the three tournaments I have focused on so far at WTA Tokyo, ATP Metz and ATP St Petersburg with the matches being played across a number of hours.


Johanna Konta - 2.5 games v Donna Vekic: There have been some fitness concerns around Johanna Konta this summer which raises some doubts when it comes to backing her in this Second Round match in Tokyo. The First Round win might have eased some of those concerns for some backers, but I think Konta was playing an overmatched opponent and it won't be anything like as straight forward as when she faces Donna Vekic.

It has been a tough twelve months overall for Konta having made her way up the World Rankings and looking like someone who could challenge for Grand Slam titles. This year her numbers on the hard courts have been slightly worse than in 2016 and 2017, but Konta is still very comfortable on the surface and she will need all of her experience on this surface to beat Vekic.

Donna Vekic has a strong record on the hard courts and her win over Sloane Stephens in the First Round has to be massively respected. The Croatian has arguably shown some better form than Konta over the last couple of months on the hard courts, but the second serve can be attacked and I do think Konta has the overall edge over her on this surface.

They have played a couple of very close matches against one another in the past and the injury concerns around Konta has to swing some of the momentum towards Vekic. However I do think Konta has had enough time to rest up and be ready for a final push in the 2018 season and I will look for her to get the better of the second serve battle and that should lead to a win and a cover of this number in a tough Second Round match.


Daniil Medvedev - 3.5 games v Mikhail Kukushkin: This is not the first time that Daniil Medvedev and Mikhail Kukushkin have met in Russia, but Medvedev looks a much improved player since winning their previous match in Moscow in 2016.

Like with many players up and coming on the Tour, Medvedev has had some problems with his consistency at this moment in his career. However he has had some much improved numbers on the hard courts in 2018 and that has seen him produce a huge amount of wins with the last couple of wins being very important for him.

A strong end to 2018 could see Medvedev in a position to be Seeded at the next Grand Slam at the Australian Open in January 2019 and that has to be the goal for the Russian in the remainder of the season. He certainly has a chance for another strong run in a hard court tournament in St Petersburg having performed so well in North America in the lead up to the US Open.

Medvedev has produced some very strong numbers on the hard courts and he looks like he could have the measure of the talented Mikhail Kukushkin. The latter has struggled for consistency on the main ATP Tour despite his obvious quality, and there has been a real problem for Kukushkin when it comes to hard court tennis.

Despite beating Denis Istomin in the First Round, Kukushkin has a losing record on the hard courts in 2018 in main ATP matches. His numbers are not close to where he would like with only a 68% hold percentage and that is not going to cut it against a returner like Medvedev who has had joy on that side of his game.

Kukushkin is not exactly someone who has been a dominant returner either and I think he will find it tough to compete with Medvedev unless the young Russian has a bad day in the office. With the home crowd behind Medvedev I expect his focus to remain strong in this match and I will look for him to cover the number even though it looks a big one on paper.


Lukas Lacko - 2.5 games v Marco Cecchinato: I will admit I am not always keen on backing Lukas Lacko despite the sometimes decent performances he can produce on the Tour. The majority of his time is spent on the Challenger circuit these days and the Lacko return game is not really up to the standard to see him become a regular back on the ATP Tour.

In saying that I do think Lacko can get the better of French Open Semi Finalist Marco Cecchinato who has continued to struggle on the hard courts.

The Italian is just 1-16 since the beginning of 2016 on this surface and it continues to be on that baffles Cecchinato. One of the main problems Cecchinato has had is in the return game as he can't get his timing right on the hard courts although it does have to be said his numbers are significantly better in 2018 than they have been in the last couple of years.

Cecchinato is showing some signs of improvement on the hard courts, but the return continues to be a challenge for him with just an 11% break percentage on the surface. He may get a few more chances against the inconsistent Lacko whose serve is one that can be very vulnerable, but Cecchinato is generally going to feel the pressure of having to serve at his very best to stay in the match.

Lacko has shown a much better ability to get to the breaks of serve on the hard courts and I think that could be a key in deciding the outcome of the match. I do think Lacko will have to serve better than he has for the most part on the hard courts, but doing that should mean he has the edge in the match and I will look for the Slovakian to cover the number.


Marton Fucsovics - 3.5 games v Radu Albot: It was supposed to be a tough looking First Round match for Marton Fucsovics when he met Adrian Mannarino, but he made easy work of the match. 2018 has been a real breakthrough year for Fucsovics and he is showing little sign of wearing down and coasting towards the end of the season.

A strong end to the 2018 season may see Fucsovics on the brink of being Seeded at the Australian Open which underlines the kind of improvement he has made this season.

The hard courts may not be the favourite surface for Fucsovics, but he has produced some strong performances on it. You could definitely argue that the 9-10 record on the main ATP Tour does not reflect the performances he has put together and Fucsovics has been considerably stronger than Radu Albot who faces him in the Second Round.

Albot did have a good First Round win, but there has been a general struggle for him on the hard courts. His numbers are not that impressive overall, but there is another significant drop when it comes to main ATP Tour matches on the hard courts and I do think he will have difficulties getting into this one.

The Fucsovics return numbers are stronger than Albot's and the latter has not had as much success when it comes to protecting the serve too. When you put it together it would be a surprise if Fucsovics is not able to win this match and I think he will have the stronger display that can see him cover the number in this Second Round match.

MY PICKS: Johanna Konta - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Lukas Lacko - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Marton Fucsovics - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 4-4, + 0.18 Units (16 Units Staked, + 1.13% Yield)