Boxing Picks 2018- Danny Garcia vs Shawn Porter (September 8th)

In the United Kingdom the focus may be on the return to Welterweight of Amir Khan in his second fight under the Matchroom banner, but I don't think many real Boxing fans are going to care until he really steps up his opposition.

This week all the talk has been about Manny Pacquiao as someone Khan would like to face next, but the legend of the sport has his eyes towards Brooklyn like so many others have this weekend.

That is where Danny Garcia and Shawn Porter are facing one another for the now vacant WBC Welterweight Title after Keith Thurman was forced to vacate. The winner would most certainly be leading the way for a Unification with Pacquiao at the end of this year or early in 2019, while other big fights could also come out with the likes of Errol Spence Jr another title holder who is looking for the big Unification bouts.

Garcia versus Porter is the big fight of the weekend and a real close one to call.


Of course before that I will take in the Khan fight in Birmingham and there is also an intriguing Heavyweight clash on the undercard of the Garcia-Porter bill.

In the second half of the 2018 Boxing season I am hoping to have a bit more success with the win-loss ratio even though the numbers are in a positive from the first half. Improving the win-loss will really start moving the numbers upwards in a strong fashion and that has to be the goal as we enter a few months where some really exciting fights have been lined up already.

And that is all before the potential Tyson Fury versus Deontay Wilder fight is announced too.

Tommy Langford vs Jason Welborn

There is a decent if unspectacular undercard to the Amir Khan main event on Saturday in Birmingham, but the best of the fights should be the rematch between Tommy Langford and Jason Welborn.

The British Middleweight Title is on the line again and Langford is looking to make up for a stunning defeat on a night when it was not expected. I am expecting a very good atmosphere in the rematch with both men making their homes near Birmingham and this time Welborn is not going to be a huge outsider like he was when beating Langford on a Split Decision in May.

The key to the whole outcome was Langford being counted down in Round Two and that extra point prevented the scoring coming down to a Majority Decision Draw.

Excuses have been made for the Langford performance and he is not going to overlook Welborn for a second time in what could be a pivotal fight for him. If Langford loses you would wonder where he can go next and that pressure can't be ignored.

You can see why Welborn was such an outsider for the first fight as he had struggled whenever he had taken a step up in level of opponent. This time he is likely to believe much more than he must have done deep down for the first fight, but I am not sure lightning strikes twice here.

Neither fighter is really blessed with the kind of power which would make me think we won't need the judges again, but I think it could be a fun contest. Ultimately I don't think Langford is as lacklustre about the fight again and a more focused and ready fighter should be too good for Welborn.

I have little doubt Welborn will look to do everything in his power to hold onto the British Middleweight Title he took from Langford, but he has really had a tough time stepping up his level and this time I expect Langford to get the job done.

I did consider backing Langford to win this one on points considering his lack of punching power, but I think the better play is just backing the former Champion to get the win whichever way it comes.

Amir Khan vs Samuel Vargas

It was so obvious that everyone would be talking about Amir Khan being 'back' after stopping Phil Lo Greco in stunning fashion back in April, but more needs to be seen from the former World Champion before you can really know where he stands. I've felt for a while that Khan will ease himself in with a couple of comfortable fights and then look to take a huge pay day against either an elite Welterweight Champion or domestic rival Kell Brook.

The fight with Brook has looked a natural one for a while, but there still seems to be some resistance to it from Khan and it feels like a Ricky Hatton-Junior Witter situation. There seems to be a genuine dislike between Khan and Brook, as there was with Hatton and Witter, and I am not sure Khan doesn't feel the same as Hatton in that there is bigger money to be made against other opponents than Brook.

What comes next is a story for another day and it will all be a moot point if Amir Khan is not able to win this fight.

I give Samuel Vargas credit for talking a good game, but ultimately I think this is a come forward, slow fighter who is made for Khan who can also put some Rounds into the legs. After a two year lay off and then a very quick win over Lo Greco, Khan wants a durable opponent who doesn't pose a big threat just so he can shake off some more ring rust before stepping in with a top name.

Vargas doesn't have a bad record, but he has been stopped twice when stepping up in defeats to Errol Spence Jr and Danny Garcia and on both occasions he was stopped on his feet. It makes Vargas durable and Khan will be able to show off his flashy combinations and has to be careful to make sure he doesn't allow Vargas to get off a 'lucky' punch which would likely be the end of the Khan career.

It would be a huge upset if that happens and instead I think Khan will be able to bamboozle this come forward fighter and likely earn a mid-fight stoppage which will keep him on track for a huge Stadium fight Khan is desperate to be involved in. I think Khan will get the Rounds under his belt as he wears down Vargas and it may take a corner pull out or a referee stoppage to end this one somewhere in the middle Rounds and that is what I will back in this one.

Spence Jr finished the job in Round Four against Vargas and Danny Garcia had to wait until Round Seven and I think the referee jumps between Khan and Vargas at some point between those numbers.

Adam Kownacki vs Charles Martin

The Heavyweight Division has really been heating up in 2018 and there are some more big fights set to come in the next couple of months with all of the World Titles on the line.

One thing that will always be needed is new contenders for the Champions to fight and the winner of Adam Kownacki and Charles Martin will likely be moving pretty close to a World Title shot. These two are on the undercard of the big Welterweight fight between Danny Garcia and Shawn Porter and it won't be lost on either Kownacki and Martin as to what this means.

Charles Martin still 'walks this earth like a God' but he has gone through some real tough times since he was beaten for his IBF Title by Anthony Joshua over two years ago. In that time Martin has survived a gunshot and he has fought and won just two fights, but the former Champion is back and with a serious goal of making it back to the top of the Heavyweight Division.

It does feel a long shot but Martin will be a test for Adam Kownacki whose best win came against Artur Szpilka who he Knocked Out in Four Rounds which is much sooner than Deontay Wilder took to beat Szpilka. That is something of a statement win for Kownacki and he recognises that beating a former Champion like Martin will put him right on the brink of a title shot as an unbeaten contender.

Kownacki hasn't been vastly more active than Martin which means he has to remain focused against someone who clearly can punch a bit with 23 stoppages in 26 fights. The Polish born Kownacki has also shown he has the power to throw enough big punches to break down opponents and everything points to an early night in this one even though it is only scheduled for Ten Rounds.

It would have been nice to see Kownacki come in a little lighter than he has, but I am not sure Martin has enough to keep him off of him. That pressure should see Kownacki eventually wear down Martin and I think the lack of activity in the last couple of years will mean lacking the gas tank to keep Kownacki away when the pressure begins to get too much.

A small back of Kownacki getting this done in the second half of the fight is my call.

Danny Garcia vs Shawn Porter

As soon as this fight was announced for the vacant WBC Welterweight Title I was looking forward to it.

There is so much on the line for both Danny Garcia and Shawn Porter with the winning fighter going on to some major nights, while the losing fighter may be questioning whether they are no longer a part of the very best in the Division.

Both men have suffered narrow defeats to Keith Thurman, while Porter was also beaten very narrowly by Kell Brook. That means both Porter and Garcia have mixed in some very good company and needed some of the best fighters out there to beat them and even then they were not convincingly beaten.

The style of the two fighters is almost certainly going to mesh together and I think this could be a fantastic fight but one that could have some controversy attached to it if it goes to the cards. I do think we are going to need the judges to separate the two with both showing they are very tough, but I am edging towards the under Porter being the man to have his hand raised and once again become a World Champion.

I have a huge amount of respect for Danny Garcia who also seems to do enough to win his fights- that means he can raise his level to match the top names he has beaten, but also can look like he is struggling against weaker opposition. Opposing Garcia is never an easy choice because of his sharpshooting style which can look very impressive when he is timing things right.

Garcia also has the punch power to give Porter something to think about and perhaps even hurt him if the latter is not careful. However I do think Garcia does take some time off in Rounds and that is where Porter's pressure and aggression could impress the judges more.

It is that style which I think will cause Garcia problems and that is why I am narrowly leaning towards Porter to get this done on a Decision. I would not be surprised to see both fighters upset with the judges at the end of this one, while a Draw is not exactly out of the question here.

I do think Garcia did slightly better against Keith Thurman than Porter, but I also think Porter's style is all wrong for Garcia. I think this could easily be one of the best fights we will see in 2018, but I like the pressure and aggression of Porter to be too much for Garcia who likes to wait for his moments and maybe give away Rounds looking for that time to come.

Both fighters have been lacking the activity they may have liked, but a small interest in the underdog winning this one on points is my call. Like I've said above, I think Porter will be able to be aggressive enough to prevent Garcia from really finding his moments to counter and I can see the losing fighter being disappointed with how things turned out.

A bit of controversy may just freeze out the other leading Welterweights and see these two go again either right at the end of 2018 or early 2019.

MY PICKS: Tommy Langford @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Amir Khan Between 5-8 @ 3.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Adam Kownacki Between 6-10 @ 3.80 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Shawn Porter By Decision/Technical Decision @ 3.25 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Boxing 2018 Update: 21-41, + 6.14 Units (95 Units Staked, + 6.46% Yield)