Boxing Picks 2018- Canelo Alvarez vs Gennady Golovkin (September 15th)

It is almost exactly one year to the day since the controversial scorecards were read out in the first Canelo Alvarez vs Gennady Golovkin bout and much has happened in the last twelve months to increase the intensity around this rematch.

Last year there was a lot of respect between the two teams, but that went out of the window the minute Alvarez was suspended for a positive drug test and now all eyes will turn to Las Vegas for this card.

The undercard is a decent looking one too with a couple of big names in action and a real fifty-fifty looking fight at the same weight as the main event with the winner likely next in line for a shot at whoever comes out as King of the Middleweights.

Roman Gonzalez vs Moises Fuentes

This feels like a crossroads fight between Roman Gonzalez and Moises Fuentes as both players come off a loss and look to return to be a major player in a tough Division.

The back to back defeats Gonzalez suffered to Sor Rungvisai snapped his unbeaten run and dropped Chocolatito from the pound for pound ranks. The manner of the second defeat, after the controversy of the first, has people wondering if Gonzalez has slipped off his peak after some of the fine wins and wars he has been involved in.

It is a big question mark for any fighter whether it was just a bad opponent or whether Gonzalez is not the fighter he once was, but this looks a good match up for him.

Moises Fuentes has lost three of his last four fights and looks to be a fighter on the way towards the end of his career. Of course Fuentes will realise this may be his last chance at being involved in the big fights in the back end of his own career which means both fighters will put it all on the line.

I do think Gonzalez may just have run into an elite fighter and I think there is still something left in the tank. There are the question marks of a new trainer and adjustments Gonzalez would have made to his training camps, but I think he is the better fighter and I think there will be more in the tank.

Fuentes has been stopped relatively early in his two losses, but I think Gonzalez may just take some time to warm up having been out of the ring for over a year. Eventually I am looking for Chocolatito to break down Fuentes and I will back him to find the stoppage in the second half of this Ten Rounder.

Jaime Munguia vs Brandon Cook

Things could have been very different in 2018 for Jaime Munguia if he had been given the clearance to fight Gennady Golovkin back in May when he was a relative unknown with a strong unbeaten record.

Munguia was able to step into a better situation by facing Sadam Ali in a Light-Middleweight Title fight instead of moving up to face Golovkin. The Mexican impressed with his destruction of the Champion and he has already made one defence of his Title before being handed a spot on the undercard of the biggest fight of the year with Munguia showing the size to think he will eventually make the move to Middleweight and potentially be a challenger to the winner of the Canelo-GGG rematch.

The second defence of his WBO Title comes against Brandon Cook who should have been fighting Kell Brook in July before an injury meant Brook had to pull out of that bout in London. Cook looked to be wasting his training camp as a fight struggled to materialise before being given this opportunity.

As the feeling was when the Brook fight was arranged, this feels a big step up for Cook and he is going to be facing some considerable power. I have little doubt that Munguia still has plenty to learn at 21 years old, as he showed in the fight with Liam Smith, but he has plenty of power and looks like he will be considerably bigger than Cook.

This is almost a 'coming out' party for Munguia who will want to put on a strong display and I think he stops Cook in stunning fashion during the first half of the fight.

David Lemieux vs Gary O'Sullivan

The main event in Las Vegas is clearly an exceptional fight, but the undercard of the event is a good one with this fight between two Middleweights looking like it could set up the winner for a big Title fight perhaps as soon as at the end of the year.

Both David Lemieux and Gary O'Sullivan have very little time for one another and the build up has been fun this week with O'Sullivan taking plenty of the headlines for his comments.

He has rebuilt after a stoppage defeat to Chris Eubank Jr and his win over Antoine Douglas really helped make O'Sullivan's name in America. O'Sullivan has only been dealing in stoppages since March 2017 and I do think he is going to come here to fight.

Like David Lemieux, O'Sullivan had a wide points defeat to Billy Joe Saunders in his career too but the Irishman thinks he is on the way up and Lemieux is on the way down in what could be a crossroads fight.

I do think Lemieux has not been the same fighter since his Eighth Round defeat to Gennady Golovkin although Curtis Stevens may say otherwise in that stunning KO that was delivered to him. However for the most part his fights have been much tougher these days and Lemieux has also had some issues making weight which suggests he could be ripe for the beating here.

My issue is that O'Sullivan is likely going to try and trade with Lemieux and that may play into the hands of the Canadian. Both men have showed they have power to stop opponents, but this is a pretty big step up for O'Sullivan and I think there is going to be a stoppage in this one.

I think O'Sullivan has a deep tank which makes him dangerous, but he was stopped by Eubank Jr and I think Lemieux may hit harder. If O'Sullivan stands and trades I think that power tells and the Canadian may just get the better of a fighter that looks to have been matched up very well since his last defeat.

Canelo Alvarez vs Gennady Golovkin

The rematch that is one year in the making is finally here.

In reality that is the fault of Canelo Alvarez who failed two drug tests and has completed a suspension since the controversial draw with Gennady Golovkin almost a year to the day.

First things first- I am not sure whether Canelo has regularly been cycling off the PEDs or whether his 'tainted meat' excuse is correct. It was naive to say the very least with the issues in Mexico meat that have been well known for a number of years, but I can't say for sure that I think he has been cheating.

Last year I picked Golovkin to win the fight, but when scoring live I actually finished with a 114-114 card and said there was one Round I really felt could have been a swing Round where I could have gone either way. That was a Round I could have given to Golovkin but slightly leaned to Canelo when I scored it and so the draw wasn't the big controversy for me.

Instead it was the horrible 118-110 card Adelaide Byrd put together, but if the score had been 115-113 each way and a 114-114 I don't think there would have been the same controversy attached.

From the day the rematch was arranged I felt Canelo Alvarez would edge out Gennady Golovkin in another close fight as GGG would have been that much older and the experience of the first fight would put Canelo in a good place. The drug suspension does raise some doubts about Canelo and make me wonder if anything he produced in the first fight was with the aid of something else rather than boxing skills and strength of character.

Add in the year Canelo has been out of the ring and I can see why GGG is the favourite and I respect that.

However I do think the year off could have done Canelo some good after a tough run and I do think he will be working a little harder earlier in the fight to steal a few close Rounds. If Canelo stands there and trades I don't think it will work for him, but I do think he will be more willing to throw on the move now he has felt the power that Golovkin will bring to the table.

That could be enough to sway those close Rounds and I am going to have a small interest on Canelo winning this one on a Decision.

Personally I would like GGG to win the fight and secure his legacy, but Canelo is younger, fresher and now knows what the power feels like. Canelo has plenty on the line here as he bids to prove that he wasn't cheating like the Golovkin camp have continued to insist, but I think the Mexican can show off the better boxing skills as long as he isn't so angry as to be drawn into a war.

The money is beginning to come in on the favourite, but I will look for the underdog to win a tight Decision.

MY PICKS: Roman Gonzalez Between 6-10 @ 3.20 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Jaime Munguia Between 1-6 @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
David Lemieux to Win By KO, TKO or Disqualification @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Canelo Alvarez to Win By Decision/Technical Decision @ 3.25 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Boxing 2018: 22-44, + 3.65 Units (101 Units Staked, + 3.61% Yield)