NFL Week 3 Picks 2018 (September 20-24)

I really didn't think I could have had a better Week 2 than Week 1 from the NFL Picks made, but it turned out I can with the record last week being 6-1 compared with 6-2 from Week 1.

That means a really strong start to the 2018 NFL season is in the books, although I can't afford to be looking too far ahead when it comes to how the rest of the season pans out. Instead this is a very good start and something to build on in the weeks ahead.

I didn't have a pick from Thursday Night Football so this thread is being posted on Sunday with the NFL Picks coming from the remaining two days of Week 3.

Let's get to it.


Cincinnati Bengals @ Carolina Panthers Pick: These two teams come into Week 3 in contrasting moods after both played Divisional games in Week 2. The Cincinnati Bengals have had a few more days to prepare after beating the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday Night Football in Week 2, while the Carolina Panthers were beaten by NFC South rivals the Atlanta Falcons.

Non-Conference games are clearly not as important as Conference and Divisional games, but the Bengals and Panthers know they are playing in tough Divisions and every game should mean plenty to them. That is especially the case for the Panthers who won't want to drop to 1-2 after losing in Week 2 and I do think they are capable of bouncing back.

Injuries are hurting the Cincinnati Bengals and even the additional days to prepare for this one might not be enough. They have lost key players on both sides of the ball and Joe Mixon has been ruled out for up to a month which will mean the Running Back position is stretched.

The Bengals have started well Offensively though which means they should give Carolina some problems. Running the ball has been effective, but the loss of Mixon may hit the Bengals there and this Carolina Defensive unit will be looking to prove they are much better than what they displayed last week in the loss at the Atlanta Falcons.

Carolina have to look to get some pressure on Andy Dalton at Quarter Back and I expect they will have some success doing that. Stopping AJ Green and Giovani Bernard coming out of the backfield will be more difficult for Carolina and gives Dalton a chance to make some solid plays, while the Bengals should be able to have some success running the ball even without Mixon which gives them a chance for the upset.

The same can be said for Carolina when it comes to moving the ball with Cam Newton in good form and helping paper over the cracks they have on the Offensive Line. Newton is being aided by Norv Turner at Offensive Co-Ordinator and the Panthers are very happy with their Quarter Back, but Newton will need his legs and awareness to be on point as he is going to see his Offensive Line struggle to cope with the Bengals Defensive Line.

A key for Newton is going to be employing Christian McCaffrey in the passing game as he did against the Atlanta Falcons. Short, quick passes may just slow down the pass rush and McCaffrey is a very dangerous player out in the open spaces, while any slowing down of the pass rush may give Newton the time to make plays down the field against a Cincinnati Secondary which has struggled.

Establishing the run is the starting point for the Carolina Panthers and that won't be easy this week. So far the Bengals have been stout on the Defensive Line, but this is the best rushing team they would have faced and I think the Panthers will be able to get more joy up front than others have against the Bengals.

We have already seen two ties in the NFL this season and the last time these teams met ended in a tie too. I don't think that will be the case this time and I like the Panthers to cover the spread in a home win as they recover from the defeat in Week 2.

Injuries are really hurting the Bengals and they have actually lost the yardage battle in both of their opening two games. If Cam Newton and the Panthers look after the ball I think they will be strong enough on both sides of the ball to beat the Bengals and the Panthers are also 4-0 against the spread in their last four games off a defeat.

It will be close but I think Carolina are going to be good enough to win this game and also cover the number.


Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: Both the Denver Broncos and Baltimore Ravens could easily have different records going into Week 3 if things had gone even slightly differently in Week 2. However it is the Broncos who rallied to beat the Oakland Raiders and move to 2-0 while the Ravens were beaten on Thursday Night Football and head into Week 3 with a 1-1 record.

The spot is a difficult one for both teams as the meat in the Divisional game sandwich they are involved in. Those Divisional games are clearly very important for these teams in the tough AFC North and West Divisions in which they operate, but neither will accept dropping what could be an important tie-breaker when it comes to potential Wild Card spots later in the season.

Injuries are a big part of the NFL and both Denver and Baltimore are dealing with key players suffering through Week 2. Case Keenum is the Quarter Back for the Denver Broncos after being signed off a strong season with the Minnesota Vikings and he was held out of practice on Wednesday with a bad knee, but is expected to go.

On the other hand CJ Mosley is looking like he won't be at 100% for the Baltimore Ravens with his status Questionable and that could be a huge blow to the Defensive unit without their 'Quarter Back' of that unit.

That has to be an area Denver look to expose although there has been some tough learning moments for the Offensive unit. Keenum knows he has to play better, but he could be well supported by a strong running game that has looked like it could be a key to the Broncos in the season ahead.

Phillip Lindsay is a rookie Running Back who looks to have taken the main role in the backfield after a strong performance in Week 2. While the Broncos will try to challenge the Baltimore Defensive Line that has played well, Lindsay is also going to be a key coming out of the backfield especially if Mosley is not on the field.

It should open things up for Keenum and will also be key to protect the Quarter Back whose Offensive Line is going to be missing one starter. The Ravens can get some real pressure up front and they have had a Secondary playing pretty well, but Keenum has strong Receivers who can win their battles on the outside if they are fully focused.

The real key to the outcome of this game could come on the other side of the ball as Joe Flacco looks to help the Ravens bounce back from their Week 2 loss in Cincinnati. Flacco looks to be more engaged in everything since Lamar Jackson was Drafted by the Ravens as their Quarter Back of the future, but this is a tough Defensive unit the Quarter Back is facing.

Flacco can't expect to get a lot of help from the running game against this Denver Defensive Line and that puts more pressure on him when it comes to protecting their Quarter Back. So far the Offensive Line has had its problems and Denver have a pass rush that has to be respected and I fully expect the Broncos to put a lot of pressure on Flacco throughout this game.

There are some holes in the Secondary which can be exposed, but Flacco might not always have the time to get to his Receivers down the field and I like the Broncos with a number of points behind them. The whole feel of this game looks a close one and so getting six points looks like too many for the underdog to be in receipt of.

Keenum has to avoid the turnovers which have blighted him in the first couple of weeks of the season, but even with that in mind I think the Denver Broncos are getting too many points here.


Oakland Raiders @ Miami Dolphins Pick: The Jon Gruden era has not begun as the Oakland Raiders would have hoped with a 0-2 record and the decision to trade Khalil Mack looking more and more baffling in each passing week. It is a ten year contract the new Head Coach has signed, but I am not convinced the Raiders were expecting a transitional season out of the gate.

To give Oakland their dues they have not played badly in either of their last couple of games but perhaps just ran out of gas towards the end of those games. A Divisional loss to the Denver Broncos in the manner it came is a huge blow the mentality of the team and Oakland face a tough game in hot conditions in an early Eastern Time slot.

They are also facing a confident Miami Dolphins team who have opened the season 2-0 even though they lost the yardage battle by over 100 yards in the win at the New York Jets last Sunday. Not many Miami fans were expecting to see the team getting close to the Play Off picture, but now the Dolphins lead the AFC East and optimism around the whole team will be improving.

Adam Gase continues to get the most out of Ryan Tannehill who has returned from the lost 2017 season in decent shape at Quarter Back. He is not being asked to do too much and that may be the case again in Week 3 as the Offensive Line looks to help the Dolphins become a power rushing team.

Miami should find some real holes up front against the Oakland Raiders who have allowed 5.7 yards per carry through the first couple of weeks of the season. This could be a break out game for the Dolphins who have run the ball well enough through the first two games and being able to do that will open things up for Ryan Tannehill in play-action.

Tannehill has felt the pressure up front, but the established run and this Oakland lack of pass rush may mean he has more breathing room in Week 3. So far the Quarter Back has looked after the ball well enough and the short, quick passes mixed in with some deep shots to Kenny Stills should see Miami move the ball with more consistency than they did in the Week 2 win at the Jets.

Running the ball has been a problem for the Oakland Raiders despite having Marshawn Lynch in the backfield and that is likely to be the case in Week 3 too. It means there is more pressure on Derek Carr at Quarter Back and there are some serious questions being asked of him and whether he is going to get back to the kind of high level he once displayed in the NFL.

Carr is someone who does get the ball out of his hands very quickly and Oakland have some Receivers who are capable of making big plays against a vulnerable Miami Secondary. However it can be tough to do that consistently from third and long situations and Carr has shown he is not too far away from throwing a bad ball that can be picked off.

The Dolphins successes through the first couple of weeks of the season have been aided massively by an ability to turn the ball over and that may be the situation again in this one. I can see Miami putting Derek Carr in pressurised spots to make plays down the field and that is where they can produce a turnover or two that helps them edge out their visitors.

It has been hot and humid in Miami which could see Oakland struggle to maintain their standards through the second half. They have started well in both games in 2018 but then faded in the second half anyway and that could be the problem much earlier in the heat of the middle of the day in Miami.

One concern is that Miami have been a poor home favourite to back over the years and this is the first game they would have gone into as favourites this season. That changes the mentality of the players and they have struggled under the expectation of being favoured, but I like Miami matching up with Oakland and think the conditions in South Florida helps them get the better of an opponent playing back to back road games.

Oakland are off a really disappointing Divisional loss too and I will back the home team to win and cover.


San Francisco 49ers @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: Even the biggest Patrick Mahomes fan in the world has to be surprised with how well the Quarter Back has played in his first two weeks as the new Kansas City Chiefs starter. Andy Reid may not be surprised considering he made the decision to trade away Alex Smith and turn over his team to Mahomes.

It has paid off so far as Kansas City opened the season 2-0 with road wins at quality opponents Los Angeles Chargers and the Pittsburgh Steelers. Now Mahomes will get the chance to play in front of the raucous Arrowhead Stadium crowd and the Chiefs are a big favourite to see off the San Francisco 49ers who have an up and coming Quarter Back of their own in Jimmy Garoppolo.

The experience edge goes to Garoppolo and I think the Quarter Back can have a big performance against a Chiefs Defensive unit whose cracks have been papered up by the stunning performances Mahomes has been producing. The Chiefs have allowed an average of 508 total yards per game over the first couple of weeks of the season and the 49ers are good enough Offensively to move the chains with success throughout the game.

There is a real balance to the way San Francisco play and they should be able to establish the run in this one which will mean keeping Mahomes on the sidelines for as long as possible too. While there have been some Offensive Line issues in terms of pass protection, Kansas City have not been able to exert a lot of pressure up front and running the ball effectively should mean San Francisco are able to give Garoppolo time from play-action spots.

Against a Secondary which has allowed 430 passing yards per game and missing Eric Berry, I think Garoppolo is going to be able to make some big plays down the field and give the 49ers every chance to earn the cover.

It is hard to go against Mahomes considering how well he has played over the first two games, but the Quarter Back won't have it as comfortable as he did against the Steelers last week. The 49ers have been far from a great Defensive unit, but they have a returning Reuben Foster this week to bolster their strength and they are a team that can at least study the film and give Mahomes a different look.

Like the 49ers, Kansas City have been well supported by a decent run game which has opened things up for Mahomes down the field. I expect the Quarter Back to have another strong day, but he could be put under a little more pressure by a solid San Francisco pass rush and that can at least see the visitors force some punts and Field Goal attempts.

The spot might not be the best one for Kansas City with this non-Conference game taking place between two big road games. While I do think they are the more likely winners at home, this is a lot of points and San Francisco may do enough to keep it close.

MY PICKS: Carolina Panthers - 2.5 Points @ 1.86 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Denver Broncos + 6 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Miami Dolphins - 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
San Francisco 49ers + 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Indianapolis Colts + 6.5 Points @ 2.05 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Minnesota Vikings - 16.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Washington Redskins + 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Seattle Seahawks - 1 Point @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Chicago Bears - 5.5 Points @ 1.86 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Los Angeles Chargers + 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Week 2: 6-1, + 9.46 Units (14 Units Staked, + 67.57% Yield)
Week 1: 6-2, + 7.34 Units (16 Units Staked, + 45.88% Yield)