It was a mediocre start to the week as Feliciano Lopez covered the spread in his win over Janko Tipsarevic, but David Nalbandian was easily pushed aside by Florian Mayer. That leaves me with an extremely small loss for the day as the Masters event continues today.
Just before I get on with my picks from the Wednesday schedule, I would like to put down my two-cents on this whole story about the big players potentially 'striking' if things are not changed with the schedule.
Now, I want to begin by saying I love sports and I really respect the people that are capable of playing it at a high level, but all this nonsense about striking is beginning to get on my nerves.
Boris Becker was the latest former player to give his support to the players, but I find it astonishing that people being paid as well as they are find time to complain about things.
Yes, the schedule is tough, but there is little room for manoeuvre as far as the ATP are concerned... Well little room without a complete overhaul of what we have come to expect with the Australian Open in January, the French Open in May, Wimbledon in June and the US Open in September. None of these Grand Slams want to move so that means there is unlikely to be a major overhaul at any time soon.
So what are the players complaining about? They feel they have to play too much compulsory tennis, with the top players expected to play in 4 Grand Slams and 8 Masters events in the course of the season. Their results in 6 other tournaments are also counted, whether that comes from the 500 Events or the 250 Events is up to the player in question.
This is a lot of tennis, and they feel there is a need for a off-season as you get in most sports- however, my sympathy does not run that deep for them here.
First off, a lot of these players are subsidised to ridiculous levels to take part in the 'lesser' tournaments, while an exhibition tournament (without ranking points) in the Middle East is attended by top players at the beginning of January- they are given very generous appearance fees for such an event and shouldn't take part if there is too much tennis being played.
Straight away, I don't understand how they can complain about the amount of tennis being played, yet take up offers to appear in events that count for nothing- I don't begrudge someone making their money through their talents, but to then COMPLAIN about TOO MUCH tennis looks a little silly.
It is correct that there is only around 5 weeks between the end of the tennis season to the beginning of a new one, even less if players take part in the Final of the Davis Cup, but let's not skirt the amount of time the top players miss during the season.
There can be around a month after the Australian Open that the top players are not seen, and around 6 weeks after Wimbledon before they begin their US hard court challenge, so there are times DURING the season that they can recover from physical ailments.
I understand the complaints that were made at the US Open (while my favourite Grand Slam, the scheduling in the early stages leaves a lot to be desired), but even that tournament has to give way to TV demands, without which these tennis players would not be earning as much as they are right now.
A lot of these players are putting in a ton of hard work to get to where they are, but they need to perhaps be reminded of the hardship 'normal' people are going through to make ends meet and it these people that make tennis players millionaires.
I am just a little fed up with all this super rich people complaining about things when there are so many out there that just about feed a family of 4 after working five continuous shifts of 14 hours a day...
Tennis players, like other sports stars, are doing something they love and the complaints seem a little out of context with the grand scheme of things.
That is just my opinion on things, I don't think sports stars should be treated as robots at our beck and call, but to talk about strikes is beginning to get on my nerves a tad.
Picks will follow below once the prices and schedule for the days play are released:
Fernando Verdasco vs Juan Carlos Ferrero: I think Fernando Verdasco is being slightly underrated after his hammering at the hands of Tomas Berdych last week, but I think he is still good enough to take care of Juan Carlos Ferrero.
Verdasco has won 3 of the last 4 meetings between the players and I think he will continue that run, albeit in 3 sets, and I don't think he should be dogged in this match up.
MY PICK: Fernando Verdasco @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Shanghai Masters: 1-1, - 0.20 Units
Season Total: + 82.02 Units
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Showing posts with label Fernando Verdasco. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Fernando Verdasco. Show all posts
Tuesday, 11 October 2011
Thursday, 1 September 2011
US Open Day 4 Picks
Yesterday was a funny day for the picks I had made, with Soderling pulling out before his match started and Yanina Wickmayer retiring in the 2nd set of her match.
Fortunately the Wickmayer pick was placed at Paddy Power, one of the few layers who will only pay out when the match is completed and voids all bets when a retirement occurs.
We took advantage of that even though the tournament directors made Wickmayer play 1 more game when she clearly wanted to retire, a game that would have made the pick a loser in all other places.
Without thinking about the picks, the treatment of Wickmayer was disgusting, saying she could not retire without receiving an injury timeout. The Belgian broke down in a flood of tears as she had to made almost 10 minutes for the trainer to turn up, play 1 more game where she barely moved and then leave the court.
Something tells me a Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic or AN Other top player would not be treated like this. It was horrible to watch and definitely a stain on my favourite tournament of the season.
Back to the picks, we ended up with another small profit on the day to add to the weeks tally as John Isner won his match 3-1 in sets against Marcos Baghdatis.
Andy Murray played some decent stuff in his win over Somdev Devvarman, but will need to go up a level against the dangerous Robin Haase in the next round, while Agnieszka Radwanska fell out of the tournament and was the first of my outright picks to fall, albeit only for a small interest.
Day 4 Picks:
Tomas Berdych - 8.5 games vs Fabio Fognini: Tomas Berdych may not be playing up to the level of the middle of 2010 but I expect him to level his head to head with Fabio Fognini today as these are the types of players he has been very successful against.
Berdych has dispatched his lower ranked opponents for the most part of the year, only struggling when coming up against the top 20 players. His big serve will give him plenty of free points and he hits his groundstrokes much bigger than his Italian opponent.
Fognini's serve can also be a liability and he tends to mentally check out of sets when things are not going his way.
That kind of attitude should allow Berdych to cover, although I expect at least 1 tight set.
Roger Federer - 9.5 games vs Dudi Sela: The quality difference between the two players was underlined in their one previous meeting at the French Open in 2005 where Federer won with little problems.
I expect more of the same tonight from the Swiss player as he will not be faced with the shot making of Santiago Giraldo in the previous round.
Federer should get a look at the majority of service games from Sela, and his return game was in decent nick last time out.
If he serves well, I think he will be able to cover this large spread.
Fernando Verdasco - 7 games vs Marsel Ilhan: Fernando Verdasco started slowly in his 1st round encounter with Jarkko Nieminen, but I expect a better performance today against the Turkish qualifier.
Ilhan relies on his serve to set up his performances, but that shot is very erratic and I expect Verdasco will get plenty of chances to make hay.
The key to the cover could be how Verdasco's state is mentally- he has had the tendency for mental lapses in the last 18 months that have cost him games, sets and matches, but I think the 1st round win will have done a great deal for his confidence and I believe he will be able to win this in straight sets.
As with many of these matches, I expect a tight first set settled by 1 break of serve for the Spaniard, which should break the resistance of Ilhan and allow Verdasco to run away with the match.
Gisela Dulko + 6.5 games vs Victoria Azarenka: Victoria Azarenka has a tendency to demolish opponents in the early rounds of tournaments, but I think we will see a tough encounter for her tonight.
Dulko leads the head to head 3-2, winning the last 3 meetings between the players, and her style clearly gives Azarenka problems.
The Argentine player has been struggling for form of late, losing 4 of her 5 matches during this US Summer swing, but they have been close losses and she has only been blown out once.
A win over Rebecca Marino will give Dulko confidence too. I am doubtful she can beat Azarenka again, but the spread looks a little too big in my opinion.
Petra Cetkovska vs Ana Ivanovic: The former World Number 1, Ana Ivanovic, has been struggling for the form of 2008 for some time and I think she could be beaten for the 2nd successive Grand Slam by Petra Cetkovska.
There is no doubt about Cetkovska's confidence since reaching the 4th round at Wimbledon- she has followed that up with a Semi Final in Palermo on the clay, and also qualified for Cincinnati before losing in the 2nd round, and qualifying for New Haven where she finished as runner-up to Caroline Wozniacki.
Ivanovic has been hit and miss for some time now and was not in great form when winning her 1st round match. She has lost as the favourite in 4 of her last 5 tournaments and I think she may be wrongly judged to be the favourite in this one.
MY PICKS: Tomas Berdych - 8.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 9.5 games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 7 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Gisela Dulko + 6.5 games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Petra Cetkovska @ 2.25 Stan James (2 Units)
US OPEN UPDATE: 8-3, + 9.63 Units
Fortunately the Wickmayer pick was placed at Paddy Power, one of the few layers who will only pay out when the match is completed and voids all bets when a retirement occurs.
We took advantage of that even though the tournament directors made Wickmayer play 1 more game when she clearly wanted to retire, a game that would have made the pick a loser in all other places.
Without thinking about the picks, the treatment of Wickmayer was disgusting, saying she could not retire without receiving an injury timeout. The Belgian broke down in a flood of tears as she had to made almost 10 minutes for the trainer to turn up, play 1 more game where she barely moved and then leave the court.
Something tells me a Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic or AN Other top player would not be treated like this. It was horrible to watch and definitely a stain on my favourite tournament of the season.
Back to the picks, we ended up with another small profit on the day to add to the weeks tally as John Isner won his match 3-1 in sets against Marcos Baghdatis.
Andy Murray played some decent stuff in his win over Somdev Devvarman, but will need to go up a level against the dangerous Robin Haase in the next round, while Agnieszka Radwanska fell out of the tournament and was the first of my outright picks to fall, albeit only for a small interest.
Day 4 Picks:
Tomas Berdych - 8.5 games vs Fabio Fognini: Tomas Berdych may not be playing up to the level of the middle of 2010 but I expect him to level his head to head with Fabio Fognini today as these are the types of players he has been very successful against.
Berdych has dispatched his lower ranked opponents for the most part of the year, only struggling when coming up against the top 20 players. His big serve will give him plenty of free points and he hits his groundstrokes much bigger than his Italian opponent.
Fognini's serve can also be a liability and he tends to mentally check out of sets when things are not going his way.
That kind of attitude should allow Berdych to cover, although I expect at least 1 tight set.
Roger Federer - 9.5 games vs Dudi Sela: The quality difference between the two players was underlined in their one previous meeting at the French Open in 2005 where Federer won with little problems.
I expect more of the same tonight from the Swiss player as he will not be faced with the shot making of Santiago Giraldo in the previous round.
Federer should get a look at the majority of service games from Sela, and his return game was in decent nick last time out.
If he serves well, I think he will be able to cover this large spread.
Fernando Verdasco - 7 games vs Marsel Ilhan: Fernando Verdasco started slowly in his 1st round encounter with Jarkko Nieminen, but I expect a better performance today against the Turkish qualifier.
Ilhan relies on his serve to set up his performances, but that shot is very erratic and I expect Verdasco will get plenty of chances to make hay.
The key to the cover could be how Verdasco's state is mentally- he has had the tendency for mental lapses in the last 18 months that have cost him games, sets and matches, but I think the 1st round win will have done a great deal for his confidence and I believe he will be able to win this in straight sets.
As with many of these matches, I expect a tight first set settled by 1 break of serve for the Spaniard, which should break the resistance of Ilhan and allow Verdasco to run away with the match.
Gisela Dulko + 6.5 games vs Victoria Azarenka: Victoria Azarenka has a tendency to demolish opponents in the early rounds of tournaments, but I think we will see a tough encounter for her tonight.
Dulko leads the head to head 3-2, winning the last 3 meetings between the players, and her style clearly gives Azarenka problems.
The Argentine player has been struggling for form of late, losing 4 of her 5 matches during this US Summer swing, but they have been close losses and she has only been blown out once.
A win over Rebecca Marino will give Dulko confidence too. I am doubtful she can beat Azarenka again, but the spread looks a little too big in my opinion.
Petra Cetkovska vs Ana Ivanovic: The former World Number 1, Ana Ivanovic, has been struggling for the form of 2008 for some time and I think she could be beaten for the 2nd successive Grand Slam by Petra Cetkovska.
There is no doubt about Cetkovska's confidence since reaching the 4th round at Wimbledon- she has followed that up with a Semi Final in Palermo on the clay, and also qualified for Cincinnati before losing in the 2nd round, and qualifying for New Haven where she finished as runner-up to Caroline Wozniacki.
Ivanovic has been hit and miss for some time now and was not in great form when winning her 1st round match. She has lost as the favourite in 4 of her last 5 tournaments and I think she may be wrongly judged to be the favourite in this one.
MY PICKS: Tomas Berdych - 8.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 9.5 games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 7 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Gisela Dulko + 6.5 games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Petra Cetkovska @ 2.25 Stan James (2 Units)
US OPEN UPDATE: 8-3, + 9.63 Units
Tuesday, 30 August 2011
US Open Day 2 Picks
Day 1 turned out to be a very solid start to the tournament for followers of the picks as all 3 came in for a profit.
We also saw Petra Kvitova become the biggest casualty as she was beaten in straight sets in her match, while there were plenty of questions raised about Maria Sharapova who struggled in her 3 set win over Heather Watson.
On to Day 2 Picks:
Sabine Lisicki - 6.5 games vs Alona Bondarenko: This is a fairly big spread to cover, but I think the German who made such an impact at Wimbledon will be able to do so on her current form.
Lisicki won in Dallas last week and she didn't lose more than 3 games in any of her 5 straight set victories. She even beat Kateryna Bondarenka, Alona's sister during that run.
Alona Bondarenko missed a large chunk of the early part of the season, and she has not been in the best of form recently with easy defeats at the hands of Serena Williams and Marion Bartoli.
Bondarenko won their only previous meeting her at the US Open in 2008 but if Lisicki is in form off the bat, I can see her coming through this match with a 6-3, 6-1 scoreline and cover the spread.
Double; Svetlana Kuznetsova vs Sara Errani and Elena Baltacha vs Jamie Hampton: Svetlana Kuznetsova is a former US Open Champion, but she has not been in the greatest form having lost early in Toronto and New Haven during the Summer tournaments. However, she plays an opponent who has lost 4 of her last 5 matches and has lost all 3 previous meetings against the Russian.
Elena Baltacha faces a young opponent and should still have enough to see her off for the 2nd time in a Grand Slam this season. The British player is not the most reliable of players to back, especially considering she has a losing record on the year, but she did reach the 2nd round here in 2010 and faces an inexperienced player.
Hampton has played a couple of tournaments since the French Open, losing in a Final of a Challenger event held in Vancouver and being knocked out at the qualifying stage for Dallas last week. She will receive plenty of support from the crowd being an American, but I think Baltacha may be just a little too consistent and could win this in 3 sets, as she did in Australia.
Double; Juan Ignacio Chela vs Marinko Matosevic and Nicolas Mahut vs Robert Farah: Juan Ignacio Chela is in the twilight of his career but I still think he should be good enough to see off his Australian challenger today.
Chela does come into this match on a 3 match losing run, but he already beat Matosevic at Wimbledon in June and does play an opponent that has won just 3 of his 12 hard court matches at this level in 2 seasons.
Matosevic has not played since losing in the qualifiers for Montreal, but defeats to the likes of Alex Bogomolov, Yen-Hsun Lu and Clement Reix in recent weeks suggest Chela should be too strong.
Nicolas Mahut should get plenty of support as he is a well known figure in the States after THAT match with John Isner at Wimbledon 2010. He is another player that is coming to the end of his career, but his serve-volley style could cause plenty of problems for his opponent.
Robert Farah may have an edge considering he qualified for this event, but this will be only his 2nd match at this level and he has not pulled up trees on the Challenger circuit so I think Mahut will be too good for him, even if it takes 4 or 5 sets.
Ernests Gulbis vs Mikhail Youzhny: I am picking the underdog in this match because I think the odds are the wrong way around.
Ernests Gulbis is one of the most talented, yet underachieving, players on the tour, but his recent win in LA had him pushing for more. Losses to Mardy Fish in Montreal and Ivan Dodig in Cincinnati can be forgiven (although the latter a lot less so), but he has a real chance against Mikhail Youzhny who has been struggling.
Youzhny has lost both his matches played on the hard courts this Summer, although he overcame similar form when reaching the US Open Semi Final last year.
Gulbis may have a mental edge in the match too, winning their last 2 meetings and I think that mental edge may help him win this match.
Fernando Verdasco to win 3-1 in sets vs Jarkko Nieminen: This is a pick I am making because while I think Verdasco will win the match, his mental lapses in recent matches makes me think he will drop at least one set against a player that will fight for every point.
Verdasco has talked about how much he enjoys the best of 5 set matches as it gives players more time to recover losing situations- I took that as meaning he can recover when he throws in one of his weird sets of tennis as he is prone to do.
Including last seasons US Open tournament, Verdasco has gone 10-4 in Grand Slam events; of those wins, Verdasco has only won 3 in straight sets.
Nieminen is not the player of the past, but he is still capable of playing some inspired tennis and pushing opponents in matches. He has lost in 4 sets in 2 of the 3 Grand Slams he played this season.
The players are 2-2 in previous meetings, but it is Verdasco who has won the last 2 they have played.
David Ferrer - 7.5 games vs Igor Andreev: I have already picked David Ferrer to come out of this section of the draw, but I do think he is worth chancing on the spread considering his recent record against Andreev.
Ferrer has won their last 3 meetings, taking 7 sets and losing 1, including two big wins on a hard court in Dubai and a clay court in Buenos Aires.
Igor Andreev is a better player than his ranking suggests, but he doesn't seem to have the heart for the game and can quickly lose focus and belief when falling behind.
That kind of mentality is the last thing you would want to do against an opponent like Ferrer who will play every point like it is the last of the match and I think the Spaniard will first break his heart and then win with a bit to spare.
MY PICKS: Sabine Lisicki - 6.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Double; Svetlana Kuznetsova and Elena Baltacha @ 2.25 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Double; Juan Ignacio Chela and Nicolas Mahut @ 2.46 BetFred (1 Unit)
Ernests Gulbis @ 2.14 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco @ 3.75 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
David Ferrer - 7.5 games @ 1.91 Pinnacle (2 Units)
US Open Update: 3-0, + 5.99 Units
We also saw Petra Kvitova become the biggest casualty as she was beaten in straight sets in her match, while there were plenty of questions raised about Maria Sharapova who struggled in her 3 set win over Heather Watson.
On to Day 2 Picks:
Sabine Lisicki - 6.5 games vs Alona Bondarenko: This is a fairly big spread to cover, but I think the German who made such an impact at Wimbledon will be able to do so on her current form.
Lisicki won in Dallas last week and she didn't lose more than 3 games in any of her 5 straight set victories. She even beat Kateryna Bondarenka, Alona's sister during that run.
Alona Bondarenko missed a large chunk of the early part of the season, and she has not been in the best of form recently with easy defeats at the hands of Serena Williams and Marion Bartoli.
Bondarenko won their only previous meeting her at the US Open in 2008 but if Lisicki is in form off the bat, I can see her coming through this match with a 6-3, 6-1 scoreline and cover the spread.
Double; Svetlana Kuznetsova vs Sara Errani and Elena Baltacha vs Jamie Hampton: Svetlana Kuznetsova is a former US Open Champion, but she has not been in the greatest form having lost early in Toronto and New Haven during the Summer tournaments. However, she plays an opponent who has lost 4 of her last 5 matches and has lost all 3 previous meetings against the Russian.
Elena Baltacha faces a young opponent and should still have enough to see her off for the 2nd time in a Grand Slam this season. The British player is not the most reliable of players to back, especially considering she has a losing record on the year, but she did reach the 2nd round here in 2010 and faces an inexperienced player.
Hampton has played a couple of tournaments since the French Open, losing in a Final of a Challenger event held in Vancouver and being knocked out at the qualifying stage for Dallas last week. She will receive plenty of support from the crowd being an American, but I think Baltacha may be just a little too consistent and could win this in 3 sets, as she did in Australia.
Double; Juan Ignacio Chela vs Marinko Matosevic and Nicolas Mahut vs Robert Farah: Juan Ignacio Chela is in the twilight of his career but I still think he should be good enough to see off his Australian challenger today.
Chela does come into this match on a 3 match losing run, but he already beat Matosevic at Wimbledon in June and does play an opponent that has won just 3 of his 12 hard court matches at this level in 2 seasons.
Matosevic has not played since losing in the qualifiers for Montreal, but defeats to the likes of Alex Bogomolov, Yen-Hsun Lu and Clement Reix in recent weeks suggest Chela should be too strong.
Nicolas Mahut should get plenty of support as he is a well known figure in the States after THAT match with John Isner at Wimbledon 2010. He is another player that is coming to the end of his career, but his serve-volley style could cause plenty of problems for his opponent.
Robert Farah may have an edge considering he qualified for this event, but this will be only his 2nd match at this level and he has not pulled up trees on the Challenger circuit so I think Mahut will be too good for him, even if it takes 4 or 5 sets.
Ernests Gulbis vs Mikhail Youzhny: I am picking the underdog in this match because I think the odds are the wrong way around.
Ernests Gulbis is one of the most talented, yet underachieving, players on the tour, but his recent win in LA had him pushing for more. Losses to Mardy Fish in Montreal and Ivan Dodig in Cincinnati can be forgiven (although the latter a lot less so), but he has a real chance against Mikhail Youzhny who has been struggling.
Youzhny has lost both his matches played on the hard courts this Summer, although he overcame similar form when reaching the US Open Semi Final last year.
Gulbis may have a mental edge in the match too, winning their last 2 meetings and I think that mental edge may help him win this match.
Fernando Verdasco to win 3-1 in sets vs Jarkko Nieminen: This is a pick I am making because while I think Verdasco will win the match, his mental lapses in recent matches makes me think he will drop at least one set against a player that will fight for every point.
Verdasco has talked about how much he enjoys the best of 5 set matches as it gives players more time to recover losing situations- I took that as meaning he can recover when he throws in one of his weird sets of tennis as he is prone to do.
Including last seasons US Open tournament, Verdasco has gone 10-4 in Grand Slam events; of those wins, Verdasco has only won 3 in straight sets.
Nieminen is not the player of the past, but he is still capable of playing some inspired tennis and pushing opponents in matches. He has lost in 4 sets in 2 of the 3 Grand Slams he played this season.
The players are 2-2 in previous meetings, but it is Verdasco who has won the last 2 they have played.
David Ferrer - 7.5 games vs Igor Andreev: I have already picked David Ferrer to come out of this section of the draw, but I do think he is worth chancing on the spread considering his recent record against Andreev.
Ferrer has won their last 3 meetings, taking 7 sets and losing 1, including two big wins on a hard court in Dubai and a clay court in Buenos Aires.
Igor Andreev is a better player than his ranking suggests, but he doesn't seem to have the heart for the game and can quickly lose focus and belief when falling behind.
That kind of mentality is the last thing you would want to do against an opponent like Ferrer who will play every point like it is the last of the match and I think the Spaniard will first break his heart and then win with a bit to spare.
MY PICKS: Sabine Lisicki - 6.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Double; Svetlana Kuznetsova and Elena Baltacha @ 2.25 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Double; Juan Ignacio Chela and Nicolas Mahut @ 2.46 BetFred (1 Unit)
Ernests Gulbis @ 2.14 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco @ 3.75 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
David Ferrer - 7.5 games @ 1.91 Pinnacle (2 Units)
US Open Update: 3-0, + 5.99 Units
Monday, 15 August 2011
Tennis Picks August 15th
It is a brand new week following wins for Novak Djokovic and Serena Williams in Montreal and Toronto respectively, and we have yet another Masters tournament beginning with this week representing the last really important week before the final Grand Slam of the season begins at Flushing Meadows on August 29th.
My outright picks are already up on the blog and a couple of the 1st Round matches were played yesterday with Juan Martin Del Potro and James Blake moving through to the 2nd Round.
The early Rounds can be a bit of a minefield, even in these Masters events, but I will be hoping I can continue the form that produced a profit last week.
On to the Picks:
Klara Zakopalova vs Lucie Safarova: I am beginning the week by taking this big priced underdog to surprise Lucie Safarova.
I think the higher ranked Czech player has been set as the short priced favourite after a decent week in Toronto where she was eventually defeated in 3 sets by Serena Williams. On the other hand, Zakopalova was comfortably beaten by Greta Arn.
However, it seems like Safarova stuggles when she meets her compatriot with Zakopalova holding a 4-1 head to head record.
Safarova beat Zakopalova in 3 sets at the Australian Open in January, but has since lost in Dubai on the hard courts and at Wimbledon in a surprise defeat in 3 sets.
Safarova struggled on the hard courts last season, including a 1st Round exit at this tournament, and she does look ripe for the surprise defeat here.
Feliciano Lopez vs Juan Carlos Ferrero: Neither one of these players has played much hard court tennis this Summer, instead opting to play in clay court events and it was no surprise to see both exiting early in Montreal last week.
Feliciano Lopez should have the edge on these faster courts over Ferrero mainly thanks to a stronger serve and I think that will lead to a win for him here.
Lopez has won the last 2 meetings between the players, although the last was back in 2007, and I think he has been in good enough form of late to come through even if it takes 3 sets.
Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 games vs Thomaz Bellucci: I hate taking Fernando Verdasco these days as he has returned to the inconsistent form that blighted his game pre-Australia in 2009.
However, he is playing an opponent that is clearly struggling to adjust his game to these faster surfaces this season and I believe Verdasco will be able to come through in straight sets, although don't expect it to be easy.
Bellucci won their last meeting on the clay courts of Mexico earlier this year, but I am going to back Verdasco to reverse that form here.
David Nalbandian vs Kei Nishikori: Another player that I hate backing these days is David Nalbandian, and it does look like he won't be on the Tour for too much longer.
I have a soft spot for Nalbandian as I have considered him one of my favourite players over the last decade, but he is clearly not the force of old.
However, I am not convinced he should be considered an outsider against the talented, but inconsistent, Kei Nishikori. The Japanese player is under the tutelage of Brad Gilbert these days, but has not incorporated the 'win ugly' mentality that Gilbert instills in his pupils.
Nishikori has won a couple of qualifying rounds here in Cincinnati so should be familiar with the conditions- I just don't think he deserves to be favourite against a Nalbandian just yet.
MY PICKS: Klara Zakopalova @ 3.5 BlueSquare (1 Unit)
Feliciano Lopez @ 1.75 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
David Nalbandian @ 2.20 Victor Chandler (1 Unit)
My outright picks are already up on the blog and a couple of the 1st Round matches were played yesterday with Juan Martin Del Potro and James Blake moving through to the 2nd Round.
The early Rounds can be a bit of a minefield, even in these Masters events, but I will be hoping I can continue the form that produced a profit last week.
On to the Picks:
Klara Zakopalova vs Lucie Safarova: I am beginning the week by taking this big priced underdog to surprise Lucie Safarova.
I think the higher ranked Czech player has been set as the short priced favourite after a decent week in Toronto where she was eventually defeated in 3 sets by Serena Williams. On the other hand, Zakopalova was comfortably beaten by Greta Arn.
However, it seems like Safarova stuggles when she meets her compatriot with Zakopalova holding a 4-1 head to head record.
Safarova beat Zakopalova in 3 sets at the Australian Open in January, but has since lost in Dubai on the hard courts and at Wimbledon in a surprise defeat in 3 sets.
Safarova struggled on the hard courts last season, including a 1st Round exit at this tournament, and she does look ripe for the surprise defeat here.
Feliciano Lopez vs Juan Carlos Ferrero: Neither one of these players has played much hard court tennis this Summer, instead opting to play in clay court events and it was no surprise to see both exiting early in Montreal last week.
Feliciano Lopez should have the edge on these faster courts over Ferrero mainly thanks to a stronger serve and I think that will lead to a win for him here.
Lopez has won the last 2 meetings between the players, although the last was back in 2007, and I think he has been in good enough form of late to come through even if it takes 3 sets.
Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 games vs Thomaz Bellucci: I hate taking Fernando Verdasco these days as he has returned to the inconsistent form that blighted his game pre-Australia in 2009.
However, he is playing an opponent that is clearly struggling to adjust his game to these faster surfaces this season and I believe Verdasco will be able to come through in straight sets, although don't expect it to be easy.
Bellucci won their last meeting on the clay courts of Mexico earlier this year, but I am going to back Verdasco to reverse that form here.
David Nalbandian vs Kei Nishikori: Another player that I hate backing these days is David Nalbandian, and it does look like he won't be on the Tour for too much longer.
I have a soft spot for Nalbandian as I have considered him one of my favourite players over the last decade, but he is clearly not the force of old.
However, I am not convinced he should be considered an outsider against the talented, but inconsistent, Kei Nishikori. The Japanese player is under the tutelage of Brad Gilbert these days, but has not incorporated the 'win ugly' mentality that Gilbert instills in his pupils.
Nishikori has won a couple of qualifying rounds here in Cincinnati so should be familiar with the conditions- I just don't think he deserves to be favourite against a Nalbandian just yet.
MY PICKS: Klara Zakopalova @ 3.5 BlueSquare (1 Unit)
Feliciano Lopez @ 1.75 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
David Nalbandian @ 2.20 Victor Chandler (1 Unit)
Tuesday, 9 August 2011
Tennis Picks August 9th
It was a decent enough day yesterday for the picks, although the happenings in London are both frustrating and angering me beyond belief. I really hope it will be the last night I am glued to my television watching the News channels rather than the tennis in Montreal or the football.
On to the Picks:
Richard Gasquet - 3.5 games vs Florian Mayer: I actually took something similar when they played in a Davis Cup match after Wimbledon, and I still cannot believe I failed to collect on that occasion.
Richard Gasquet is the stronger hard court player and his serve is perhaps a little more consistent than Mayer's. The lack of playing time since that Davis Cup tie is a real concern when it comes to backing Gasquet, but Mayer has not been in great form and I expect the Frenchman will come through in straight sets.
Andy Murray - 5.5 games vs Kevin Anderson: The first match after a long break can be tough for players, but I think Andy Murray will take full advantage of Kevin Anderson if the South African plays like he did yesterday against Pablo Andujar.
Murray is a far better returner than the Spaniard, yet Andujar was creating plenty of opportunities on the Anderson serve, and it is also true that Anderson has been struggling in recent weeks.
There is a slight worry that Murray will be a little 'cold' coming in from a lack of competitive tennis, but I fancy him to grab a double break in one set as he goes on to win in straights.
Juan Martin Del Potro - 4.5 games vs Marin Cilic: Juan Martin Del Potro was serving big yesterday and I expect he will put a lot of pressure on Marin Cilic, and especially the serving problems the Croatian has been having.
I fancy Del Potro to win with a break of serve in each set and he should cover this spread if he is serving first.
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games vs Nikolay Davydenko: The simple reason for this pick is the Serbian is far too good defensively and offensively off the ground for the Nikolay Davydenko of today and I expect him to win with a bit to spare. Davydenko has struggled to win matches this season and his serve gives far too many chances for his opponent so I can see a 6-4, 6-2 win for Djokovic here.
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games vs Tobias Kamke: Fernando Verdasco is not the most trustworthy of players at the moment and he has failed to reach the heights of 2009, but I expect he will have far too much for Tobias Kamke here.
I can see Verdasco winning this with a double break in the 2nd set after winning a tight 1st set and securing a 6-4, 6-1 win.
Radek Stepanek vs Feliciano Lopez: The head to head is 8-1 in favour of Stepanek and the Czech player is coming in off a morale boosting title win in Washington. Feliciano Lopez has been playing a lot of clay court tennis and could be caught out on the faster surface against a player that is clearly on form.
My one concern is whether Stepanek has enough left in the tank to pull the win here after a long week in Washington. However, he was not as affected by the adverse weather as others, so I expect he should have enough to win this match, although it could be a tight one.
MY PICKS: Richard Gasquet - 3.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 5.5 games @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro - 4.5 games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Radek Stepanek @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE: + 1.71 Units
On to the Picks:
Richard Gasquet - 3.5 games vs Florian Mayer: I actually took something similar when they played in a Davis Cup match after Wimbledon, and I still cannot believe I failed to collect on that occasion.
Richard Gasquet is the stronger hard court player and his serve is perhaps a little more consistent than Mayer's. The lack of playing time since that Davis Cup tie is a real concern when it comes to backing Gasquet, but Mayer has not been in great form and I expect the Frenchman will come through in straight sets.
Andy Murray - 5.5 games vs Kevin Anderson: The first match after a long break can be tough for players, but I think Andy Murray will take full advantage of Kevin Anderson if the South African plays like he did yesterday against Pablo Andujar.
Murray is a far better returner than the Spaniard, yet Andujar was creating plenty of opportunities on the Anderson serve, and it is also true that Anderson has been struggling in recent weeks.
There is a slight worry that Murray will be a little 'cold' coming in from a lack of competitive tennis, but I fancy him to grab a double break in one set as he goes on to win in straights.
Juan Martin Del Potro - 4.5 games vs Marin Cilic: Juan Martin Del Potro was serving big yesterday and I expect he will put a lot of pressure on Marin Cilic, and especially the serving problems the Croatian has been having.
I fancy Del Potro to win with a break of serve in each set and he should cover this spread if he is serving first.
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games vs Nikolay Davydenko: The simple reason for this pick is the Serbian is far too good defensively and offensively off the ground for the Nikolay Davydenko of today and I expect him to win with a bit to spare. Davydenko has struggled to win matches this season and his serve gives far too many chances for his opponent so I can see a 6-4, 6-2 win for Djokovic here.
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games vs Tobias Kamke: Fernando Verdasco is not the most trustworthy of players at the moment and he has failed to reach the heights of 2009, but I expect he will have far too much for Tobias Kamke here.
I can see Verdasco winning this with a double break in the 2nd set after winning a tight 1st set and securing a 6-4, 6-1 win.
Radek Stepanek vs Feliciano Lopez: The head to head is 8-1 in favour of Stepanek and the Czech player is coming in off a morale boosting title win in Washington. Feliciano Lopez has been playing a lot of clay court tennis and could be caught out on the faster surface against a player that is clearly on form.
My one concern is whether Stepanek has enough left in the tank to pull the win here after a long week in Washington. However, he was not as affected by the adverse weather as others, so I expect he should have enough to win this match, although it could be a tight one.
MY PICKS: Richard Gasquet - 3.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 5.5 games @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro - 4.5 games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Radek Stepanek @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE: + 1.71 Units
Friday, 29 July 2011
Tennis Picks July 29th Umag and Gstaad
This has to be a fairly quick post although there is time to get on the picks. Due to the late arrival of markets from the bookmakers, I don't have time to put all my analysis down, but take my word that I have been studying the form last night.
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games vs Julien Benneteau
Mikhail Youzhny - 4.5 games vs Andreas Haider-Maurer
Juan Carlos Ferrero - 4.5 games vs Carlos Berlocq
Double; Marin Cilic vs Andreas Seppi and Alexandr Dolgopolov vs Albert Ramos
MY PICKS: Double; Nicolas Almagro and Feliciano Lopez @ 1.96 Still Running from yesterday
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Mikhail Youzhny - 4.5 games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Juan Carlos Ferrero - 4.5 games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Double; Marin Cilic and Alexandr Dolgopolov @ 2.36 Pinnacle (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE UMAG/GSTAAD: - 0.24 Units
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games vs Julien Benneteau
Mikhail Youzhny - 4.5 games vs Andreas Haider-Maurer
Juan Carlos Ferrero - 4.5 games vs Carlos Berlocq
Double; Marin Cilic vs Andreas Seppi and Alexandr Dolgopolov vs Albert Ramos
MY PICKS: Double; Nicolas Almagro and Feliciano Lopez @ 1.96 Still Running from yesterday
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Mikhail Youzhny - 4.5 games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Juan Carlos Ferrero - 4.5 games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Double; Marin Cilic and Alexandr Dolgopolov @ 2.36 Pinnacle (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE UMAG/GSTAAD: - 0.24 Units
Thursday, 28 July 2011
Tennis Picks July 28th Umag and Gstaad
It was a good day without picks in Umag for followers of the blog as Juan Carlos Ferrero moved through the the Quarter Finals after coming from a set behind to beat Ivan Ljubicic. That puts him through to a meeting with Carlos Berlocq in the next Round and I think Ferrero will be considered the favourite to get through to the Final from the position he is in.
I was a little surprised at the start of the week when I noticed the Racing Post had highlighted Tommy Robredo as a good e/w shot at 12-1. Robredo has been suffering with a number of injuries and is clearly not the player of old and I would not have recommended him at 3 times the price.
Unsurprisingly, Robredo pulled out of this tournament, as he had last week in Hamburg, and this was all without hitting a ball in the 2nd Round.
Now on to the Picks:
Julien Benneteau vs Matthias Bachinger: Now before I say anything else, I know Julien Benneteau has been in bade form, but I am still surprised that he is considered the underdog in this match.
The Frenchman has struggled on the main tour in clay events this season, but it has been a different story in the level below that and he is now facing a player that is more used to playing Challenger and qualifying events.
Bachinger has only played 5 matches on clay all season, and really took advantage of Pablo Andujar who has been playing quite a bit of tennis of late. Bachinger has struggled on clay for the last couple of seasons and I am not ready to see him as the favourite in this match.
Double; Nicolas Almagro vs Jarkko Nieminen and Feliciano Lopez vs Daniel Gimeno-Traver: I have a couple of doubts over both of these favourites but I do think both are capable of coming through their tests.
Nicolas Almagro has reached the Semi Final in Bastad and the Final in Hamburg over the last couple of weeks and must feel happy he has had days off since Sunday to recover his fitness. However, the rain has affected play in Gstaad and he will have to win 4 matches in 4 days if he wants to take home the trophy.
However, Almagro has a 3-1 head to head record over Jarkko Nieminen and is the better clay court player. He has won their last 3 meetings, winning 7 sets to 1, and I expect he will be good enough to come through.
Feliciano Lopez followed helping Spain win their Davis Cup tie against the USA by winning a Challenger event on the clay in Colombia and he will feel he can go deep in this tournament. His compatriot has struggled all season and only just scraped through against Steve Darcis in the last Round in a match he should have lost.
I have a couple of concerns that Lopez could be tired from all the travelling of late, but he does have the game to beat Gimeno-Traver and I hope he will show that here.
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games vs Frederico Gil: Fernando Verdasco has been out of form for much of the season, but he showed he might just be turning around a corner when reaching the Semi Final in Hamburg last week and he faces a player that has won just 3 of his last 12 matches.
Verdasco is a little more effective in everything he does and already holds a comfortable 2 set win over Gil from earlier this year when he beat him in Portugal on a clay court. If Verdasco is motivated, he should come through with few problems.
Marin Cilic - 3.5 games vs Robin Haase: Marin Cilic was my outright pick last week and he was definitely showing signs of improvement after a few months of sub-standard performances and results.
Cilic will be backed by the home crowd in this match and also holds a 2-0 head to head record against Robin Haase although they last played in 2008.
I cant help oppose Haase here as he has been inconsistent of late while struggling with a knee problem- his 6-2, 6-2 loss to Carlos Berlocq last week is troubling and he had a few problems against Simone Vagnozzi in the 1st Round.
I expect Cilic will come through in straight sets after keeping the pressure on the Haase serve and being a little more consistent and getting the Dutchman moving around the court.
MY PICKS: Julien Benneteau @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Double; Nicolas Almagro and Feliciano Lopez @ 1.96 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 3.5 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE UMAG & GSTAAD: - 1.94 Units
I was a little surprised at the start of the week when I noticed the Racing Post had highlighted Tommy Robredo as a good e/w shot at 12-1. Robredo has been suffering with a number of injuries and is clearly not the player of old and I would not have recommended him at 3 times the price.
Unsurprisingly, Robredo pulled out of this tournament, as he had last week in Hamburg, and this was all without hitting a ball in the 2nd Round.
Now on to the Picks:
Julien Benneteau vs Matthias Bachinger: Now before I say anything else, I know Julien Benneteau has been in bade form, but I am still surprised that he is considered the underdog in this match.
The Frenchman has struggled on the main tour in clay events this season, but it has been a different story in the level below that and he is now facing a player that is more used to playing Challenger and qualifying events.
Bachinger has only played 5 matches on clay all season, and really took advantage of Pablo Andujar who has been playing quite a bit of tennis of late. Bachinger has struggled on clay for the last couple of seasons and I am not ready to see him as the favourite in this match.
Double; Nicolas Almagro vs Jarkko Nieminen and Feliciano Lopez vs Daniel Gimeno-Traver: I have a couple of doubts over both of these favourites but I do think both are capable of coming through their tests.
Nicolas Almagro has reached the Semi Final in Bastad and the Final in Hamburg over the last couple of weeks and must feel happy he has had days off since Sunday to recover his fitness. However, the rain has affected play in Gstaad and he will have to win 4 matches in 4 days if he wants to take home the trophy.
However, Almagro has a 3-1 head to head record over Jarkko Nieminen and is the better clay court player. He has won their last 3 meetings, winning 7 sets to 1, and I expect he will be good enough to come through.
Feliciano Lopez followed helping Spain win their Davis Cup tie against the USA by winning a Challenger event on the clay in Colombia and he will feel he can go deep in this tournament. His compatriot has struggled all season and only just scraped through against Steve Darcis in the last Round in a match he should have lost.
I have a couple of concerns that Lopez could be tired from all the travelling of late, but he does have the game to beat Gimeno-Traver and I hope he will show that here.
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games vs Frederico Gil: Fernando Verdasco has been out of form for much of the season, but he showed he might just be turning around a corner when reaching the Semi Final in Hamburg last week and he faces a player that has won just 3 of his last 12 matches.
Verdasco is a little more effective in everything he does and already holds a comfortable 2 set win over Gil from earlier this year when he beat him in Portugal on a clay court. If Verdasco is motivated, he should come through with few problems.
Marin Cilic - 3.5 games vs Robin Haase: Marin Cilic was my outright pick last week and he was definitely showing signs of improvement after a few months of sub-standard performances and results.
Cilic will be backed by the home crowd in this match and also holds a 2-0 head to head record against Robin Haase although they last played in 2008.
I cant help oppose Haase here as he has been inconsistent of late while struggling with a knee problem- his 6-2, 6-2 loss to Carlos Berlocq last week is troubling and he had a few problems against Simone Vagnozzi in the 1st Round.
I expect Cilic will come through in straight sets after keeping the pressure on the Haase serve and being a little more consistent and getting the Dutchman moving around the court.
MY PICKS: Julien Benneteau @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Double; Nicolas Almagro and Feliciano Lopez @ 1.96 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 3.5 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE UMAG & GSTAAD: - 1.94 Units
Friday, 22 July 2011
Tennis Picks 22nd July ATP Hamburg Quarter Finals
It was another good day for the picks in Hamburg as we moved into the Quarter Final stage of the tournament.
Marin Cilic is still in business as our outright pick from this event, but he faces a tough match against Mikhail Youzhny, a player that has a 4-1 head to head record against him. Cilic has been effective in patches during the week, but that second serve remains a problem and his unforced error count could really work against him against a player with the ability Youzhny has.
The bookmakers seem to agree with the price shortening all the time for the Russian to come out on top. Personally I will be keeping my fingers crossed that Cilic can repeat his win from Marseille over Youzhny and still be involved in the tournament.
Others who may have backed Cilic at the start of the tournament do have the opportunity to lay him in the outright market at 10s on Betfair.
Overall, the Quarter Finals do not look that easy to predict as you can make a case for both sides in the first 3 matches to be played during the day. The Gael Monfils-Gilles Simon match looks very close to call although I do expect Monfils to eventually make his way into the Semi Final.
Youzhny is rightly the favourite on form in his match with Cilic but, as I have already mentioned, I am hopeful Cilic can spring a surprise.
The Florian Mayer-Nicolas Almagro match is an interesting one that the latter should win if he keeps serving the way he was today in his win over Phillip Kohlschreiber. However, Almagro lost his last match with Mayer and the German uses plenty of variation in his game that could cause Almagro problems if he is not quite up to par.
Now on to the Pick:
Jurgen Melzer vs Fernando Verdasco: Now I have backed Jurgen Melzer twice already this week and he has brought home the bacon both times, and now I feel I will be third time lucky too as I go back to the well with a player that had been struggling for form recently.
Melzer obviously must enjoy playing in Hamburg, reaching the Final last year and he has been fairly solid, if not spectacular, in his two matches this week.
He faces another lefty in the form of Fernando Verdasco- the Spaniard has really been struggling to put wins together although winning two matches already should give him confidence.
Out of the two players, I feel Verdasco's serve is a little more erratic, and I also think the Spaniard's groundstrokes have been inconsistent for much of the season. Obviously if he puts them together, he will give Melzer plenty of problems, but Verdasco has not done that too often.
Verdasco has only improved to 8-6 on the clay this season, another indicator of the struggles he has had considering he was 35-14 in his previous 2 seasons on the surface.
Fernando Verdasco leads the head to head 5-2, but it was Melzer who won their last meeting. That match took place on the clay courts of Madrid as Melzer came through in straight sets. The Austrian had also pushed Verdasco to 3 sets in Barcelona on clay so he can match up against him.
Melzer has been listed as the underdog in this match and I think that is a price worth taking as my only pick from Hamburg tomorrow.
MY PICK: Jurgen Melzer @ 2.30 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
WEEKLY UPDATE: + 14.88 Units (Not including picks from 21st July Atlanta which is currently in a rain delay at the time of writing)
Marin Cilic is still in business as our outright pick from this event, but he faces a tough match against Mikhail Youzhny, a player that has a 4-1 head to head record against him. Cilic has been effective in patches during the week, but that second serve remains a problem and his unforced error count could really work against him against a player with the ability Youzhny has.
The bookmakers seem to agree with the price shortening all the time for the Russian to come out on top. Personally I will be keeping my fingers crossed that Cilic can repeat his win from Marseille over Youzhny and still be involved in the tournament.
Others who may have backed Cilic at the start of the tournament do have the opportunity to lay him in the outright market at 10s on Betfair.
Overall, the Quarter Finals do not look that easy to predict as you can make a case for both sides in the first 3 matches to be played during the day. The Gael Monfils-Gilles Simon match looks very close to call although I do expect Monfils to eventually make his way into the Semi Final.
Youzhny is rightly the favourite on form in his match with Cilic but, as I have already mentioned, I am hopeful Cilic can spring a surprise.
The Florian Mayer-Nicolas Almagro match is an interesting one that the latter should win if he keeps serving the way he was today in his win over Phillip Kohlschreiber. However, Almagro lost his last match with Mayer and the German uses plenty of variation in his game that could cause Almagro problems if he is not quite up to par.
Now on to the Pick:
Jurgen Melzer vs Fernando Verdasco: Now I have backed Jurgen Melzer twice already this week and he has brought home the bacon both times, and now I feel I will be third time lucky too as I go back to the well with a player that had been struggling for form recently.
Melzer obviously must enjoy playing in Hamburg, reaching the Final last year and he has been fairly solid, if not spectacular, in his two matches this week.
He faces another lefty in the form of Fernando Verdasco- the Spaniard has really been struggling to put wins together although winning two matches already should give him confidence.
Out of the two players, I feel Verdasco's serve is a little more erratic, and I also think the Spaniard's groundstrokes have been inconsistent for much of the season. Obviously if he puts them together, he will give Melzer plenty of problems, but Verdasco has not done that too often.
Verdasco has only improved to 8-6 on the clay this season, another indicator of the struggles he has had considering he was 35-14 in his previous 2 seasons on the surface.
Fernando Verdasco leads the head to head 5-2, but it was Melzer who won their last meeting. That match took place on the clay courts of Madrid as Melzer came through in straight sets. The Austrian had also pushed Verdasco to 3 sets in Barcelona on clay so he can match up against him.
Melzer has been listed as the underdog in this match and I think that is a price worth taking as my only pick from Hamburg tomorrow.
MY PICK: Jurgen Melzer @ 2.30 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
WEEKLY UPDATE: + 14.88 Units (Not including picks from 21st July Atlanta which is currently in a rain delay at the time of writing)
Thursday, 21 July 2011
Tennis Picks July 21st ATP Hamburg
It was a very good day for the picks I made yesterday as well as for the majority of the favourites that played in Germany yesterday. In fact only Nikolay Davydenko lost as a favourite, going down to Cedrik-Marcel Stebe for the 2nd week in succession.
My outright pick on Marin Cilic looked solid for his first 2 sets yesterday, but the serve once again lost its way and he was struggling to win anything on his 2nd serve in the final set. However, I was pleased to see him fight back from a break behind in that set to go on and win the match.
There are bigger and tougher tests waiting for Cilic if he wants to at least reach the Final, but the recovery he made in that final set yesterday may just give him a little bit more confidence after a poor season all round.
Good news also comes in the form of television pictures beginning from tomorrow. It is hard to understand why a tournament that is considered a 500 Event does not have TV coverage for the first 3 days of the event. This is even more baffling when considering the majority of 250 Events get some sort of coverage throughout and the fact Hamburg is a former Masters Event and should have no problem bringing in some sort of audience.
Least now I wont have to sit there with my phone checking the live scores during my breaks from working.
On to the Picks:
Marin Cilic vs Tobias Kamke: It seems the German players are really enjoying their time in the home tournaments and Tobias Kamke is just 1 of 5 players still involved in the singles tournament.
I have picked Cilic to win this match because I think he has been underestimated by the bookmakers following his final set struggles against Bastian Knittel. While Cilic clearly was having problems, it seems to be forgotten that he had dominated the first 2 sets and should have been home and dry earlier than he was.
Kamke had a huge win over Juan Ignacio Chela in the last Round, a real shock considering Kamke's general record on the clay. His 2 wins this week means he has improved his record to 3-4 on the season in main tour matches on the surface, but it is hard to ignore the likes of Jan Hayek, Joao Sousa and Guillermo Olaso have all recently beaten Kamke on clay courts.
There is no sign of anything hampering Cilic right now and I think the prices are far too high for him to move through this Round.
Fernando Verdasco - 4 games vs Cedrik-Marcel Stebe: Fernando Verdasco has really fallen off the level that gave him his career season in 2009 and he has been struggling to put together wins all season. However, he secured a good solid win over Pablo Andujar in his first match in the tournament and should have too much experience and nous for his young German opponent in this match.
Stebe has had another solid week on the main tour and recorded yet another win over Nikolay Davydenko. Last week he reached the Quarter Final before being handily beaten by Pablo Andujar and I expect we may see something similar in this match.
Verdasco's serve has not been that effective of late, but I expect him to do enough to come through this one in straight sets.
Jurgen Melzer - 3.5 games vs Fabio Fognini: Any follower of my blog for any length of time will know I am not the biggest fan of Fabio Fognini, even though he is ranked at Number 38 in the World.
The Italian is very erratic and can mix some sublime stuff in with some extreme garbage and his form is a little hard to judge considering the level of opponents he has met since the French Open. A defeat to Cedrik-Marcel Stebe last week does not exactly fill me with confidence.
Jurgen Melzer has not been in great form all season, but he did bring home the prize against Daniel Gimeno-Traver yesterday. The win was more impressive considering he lost the 2nd set before wrapping up the 3rd 6-1.
Melzer will need to serve a little better than today, but he does have the capabilities to do that here and secure a Quarter Final berth.
Melzer has a 1-0 head to head record over Fognini when he beat him in Auckland last season. I expect him to make it 2-0 after this match is completed.
MY PICKS: Marin Cilic @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 4 games @ 2.00 10Bet (2 Units)
Jurgen Melzer - 3.5 games @ 1.95 (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE: + 8.66 Units (Not including July 20th ATP Atlanta Picks)
My outright pick on Marin Cilic looked solid for his first 2 sets yesterday, but the serve once again lost its way and he was struggling to win anything on his 2nd serve in the final set. However, I was pleased to see him fight back from a break behind in that set to go on and win the match.
There are bigger and tougher tests waiting for Cilic if he wants to at least reach the Final, but the recovery he made in that final set yesterday may just give him a little bit more confidence after a poor season all round.
Good news also comes in the form of television pictures beginning from tomorrow. It is hard to understand why a tournament that is considered a 500 Event does not have TV coverage for the first 3 days of the event. This is even more baffling when considering the majority of 250 Events get some sort of coverage throughout and the fact Hamburg is a former Masters Event and should have no problem bringing in some sort of audience.
Least now I wont have to sit there with my phone checking the live scores during my breaks from working.
On to the Picks:
Marin Cilic vs Tobias Kamke: It seems the German players are really enjoying their time in the home tournaments and Tobias Kamke is just 1 of 5 players still involved in the singles tournament.
I have picked Cilic to win this match because I think he has been underestimated by the bookmakers following his final set struggles against Bastian Knittel. While Cilic clearly was having problems, it seems to be forgotten that he had dominated the first 2 sets and should have been home and dry earlier than he was.
Kamke had a huge win over Juan Ignacio Chela in the last Round, a real shock considering Kamke's general record on the clay. His 2 wins this week means he has improved his record to 3-4 on the season in main tour matches on the surface, but it is hard to ignore the likes of Jan Hayek, Joao Sousa and Guillermo Olaso have all recently beaten Kamke on clay courts.
There is no sign of anything hampering Cilic right now and I think the prices are far too high for him to move through this Round.
Fernando Verdasco - 4 games vs Cedrik-Marcel Stebe: Fernando Verdasco has really fallen off the level that gave him his career season in 2009 and he has been struggling to put together wins all season. However, he secured a good solid win over Pablo Andujar in his first match in the tournament and should have too much experience and nous for his young German opponent in this match.
Stebe has had another solid week on the main tour and recorded yet another win over Nikolay Davydenko. Last week he reached the Quarter Final before being handily beaten by Pablo Andujar and I expect we may see something similar in this match.
Verdasco's serve has not been that effective of late, but I expect him to do enough to come through this one in straight sets.
Jurgen Melzer - 3.5 games vs Fabio Fognini: Any follower of my blog for any length of time will know I am not the biggest fan of Fabio Fognini, even though he is ranked at Number 38 in the World.
The Italian is very erratic and can mix some sublime stuff in with some extreme garbage and his form is a little hard to judge considering the level of opponents he has met since the French Open. A defeat to Cedrik-Marcel Stebe last week does not exactly fill me with confidence.
Jurgen Melzer has not been in great form all season, but he did bring home the prize against Daniel Gimeno-Traver yesterday. The win was more impressive considering he lost the 2nd set before wrapping up the 3rd 6-1.
Melzer will need to serve a little better than today, but he does have the capabilities to do that here and secure a Quarter Final berth.
Melzer has a 1-0 head to head record over Fognini when he beat him in Auckland last season. I expect him to make it 2-0 after this match is completed.
MY PICKS: Marin Cilic @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 4 games @ 2.00 10Bet (2 Units)
Jurgen Melzer - 3.5 games @ 1.95 (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE: + 8.66 Units (Not including July 20th ATP Atlanta Picks)
Monday, 20 June 2011
Wimbledon Day 1 Picks
The third Grand Slam of the year is upon us and it is one of my favourite tournaments, especially being so close to the event.
The weather forecast for the first week is disappointing to say the least, and it will be the first year when the roof on Centre Court will be used heavily in my opinion. Tomorrow we are to expect consistent rain for much of the day and I have a feeling that a lot of matches will have to be postponed for Tuesday.
Worryingly for the organisers, Tuesday seems to be the only day where rain is not forecasted and we may just see play on the middle Sunday, a day usually reserved for rest.
It also looks like a tough opening day to make picks, with plenty of very short prices around while the handicaps are set almost perfectly to leave me doubtful of the outcome. However, I will play a couple of picks from today.
Now on to the picks from Day 1:
Fernando Verdasco - 3 games vs Radek Stepanek: Fernando Verdasco does not have the best pedigree on the grass courts, but he has had plenty of practice this season as he gets ready for Wimbledon. A win over David Nalbandian at Queens shows he does have the capabilities to produce good results on the surface.
Radek Stepanek has had a decent couple of weeks on the grass courts, but he is not at the same level as a couple of years ago. He may well cause problems for a little while, but the strength of Verdasco's shots are sure to give him the edge.
The head to head is 3-2 in favour of Stepanek, but it is Verdasco who has won the last 2 meetings. Verdasco has won the last 5 sets played against Stepanek for the loss of just 8 games.
Stepanek did beat Verdasco in 5 sets here in 2006, but I think the players have moved in separate directions since then, and I do think the Spaniard will move forward.
Four Fold: Feliciano Lopez vs Michael Berrer, Richard Gasquet vs Santiago Giraldo, Ekaterina Makarova vs Christine McHale and Jelena Jankovic vs Maria-Jose Martinez Sanchez: I hate putting more than a treble in for tennis picks but I feel all 4 players have a good chance of progressing here.
Feliciano Lopez has performed well at Wimbledon in the past and I think he will be too strong in a tight match with Michael Berrer.
Richard Gasquet has not played competitive tennis since the French Open, but should have too much nous for his Colombian opponent.
Ekaterina Makarova has shown some real good grass court pedigree this year following on from a win at Eastbourne last year.
Jelena Jankovic is the most worrying pick against an opponent that has a winning record head to head against her. Jankovic has also not played since the French Open so may take a little time getting used to the grass. However, she has played well on the surface in previous years and I fancy her to get the job done in 2 tight sets.
MY PICKS: Fernando Verdasco - 3 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Four Fold: Feliciano Lopez, Richard Gasquet, Ekaterina Makarova and Jelena Jankovic to win @ 2.41 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
The weather forecast for the first week is disappointing to say the least, and it will be the first year when the roof on Centre Court will be used heavily in my opinion. Tomorrow we are to expect consistent rain for much of the day and I have a feeling that a lot of matches will have to be postponed for Tuesday.
Worryingly for the organisers, Tuesday seems to be the only day where rain is not forecasted and we may just see play on the middle Sunday, a day usually reserved for rest.
It also looks like a tough opening day to make picks, with plenty of very short prices around while the handicaps are set almost perfectly to leave me doubtful of the outcome. However, I will play a couple of picks from today.
Now on to the picks from Day 1:
Fernando Verdasco - 3 games vs Radek Stepanek: Fernando Verdasco does not have the best pedigree on the grass courts, but he has had plenty of practice this season as he gets ready for Wimbledon. A win over David Nalbandian at Queens shows he does have the capabilities to produce good results on the surface.
Radek Stepanek has had a decent couple of weeks on the grass courts, but he is not at the same level as a couple of years ago. He may well cause problems for a little while, but the strength of Verdasco's shots are sure to give him the edge.
The head to head is 3-2 in favour of Stepanek, but it is Verdasco who has won the last 2 meetings. Verdasco has won the last 5 sets played against Stepanek for the loss of just 8 games.
Stepanek did beat Verdasco in 5 sets here in 2006, but I think the players have moved in separate directions since then, and I do think the Spaniard will move forward.
Four Fold: Feliciano Lopez vs Michael Berrer, Richard Gasquet vs Santiago Giraldo, Ekaterina Makarova vs Christine McHale and Jelena Jankovic vs Maria-Jose Martinez Sanchez: I hate putting more than a treble in for tennis picks but I feel all 4 players have a good chance of progressing here.
Feliciano Lopez has performed well at Wimbledon in the past and I think he will be too strong in a tight match with Michael Berrer.
Richard Gasquet has not played competitive tennis since the French Open, but should have too much nous for his Colombian opponent.
Ekaterina Makarova has shown some real good grass court pedigree this year following on from a win at Eastbourne last year.
Jelena Jankovic is the most worrying pick against an opponent that has a winning record head to head against her. Jankovic has also not played since the French Open so may take a little time getting used to the grass. However, she has played well on the surface in previous years and I fancy her to get the job done in 2 tight sets.
MY PICKS: Fernando Verdasco - 3 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Four Fold: Feliciano Lopez, Richard Gasquet, Ekaterina Makarova and Jelena Jankovic to win @ 2.41 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Saturday, 28 May 2011
French Open Day 7 Picks
Another interesting day has gone by at the French Open 2011 and the Men's draw is shaping up particularly nicely.
Roger Federer once again made easy progress through the draw although I do expect him to be tested a little more by Stanislas Wawrinka in the next round. Federer has quietly gone about his business as everyone spent more time talking about Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic. Federer has won here before and looks more than comfortable with his situation right now.
Another player making calm and easy progress through the draw is David Ferrer, arguably the 3rd most consistent performer on the red dirt this season behind Nadal and Djokovic.
Ferrer looked like he was coming to the end of a very productive career at the end of 2009, but has shown some real talent over the last 18 months as his window for winning a Slam closes rapidly. I dont believe Ferrer will win here, but a match with Federer in the Quarter Final is certain to excite.
The other big news of the day in the Men's draw was the meeting between Djokovic and Juan Martin Del Potro. First the match had to be moved from the Philippe Chatrier court because of the long nature of the first 3 matches on that court- that in turn caused disruptions as fans clamoured to get into the Suzanne Lenglen court to watch the game of the day.
I have stated before that Del Potro should have been in the position Djokovic is in if he had not injured his wrist and been forced to miss almost a year of action. The first 2 sets of the match did not disappoint and I am intrigued if Del Potro can continue his level of play and upset Djokovic.
Personally I am excited to see Del Potro playing the type of tennis he is- I did not expect his best stuff until the Summer hard court swing and the US Open, yet he is well on his way and is going to be a real danger for the rest of the season even if he does not complete the surprise win tomorrow.
The Women's draw saw the Number 1 seed, Caroline Wozniaki, get thumped out of the tournament by a Daniela Hantuchova playing her best tennis. That means the top 2 seeds are out and the draw remains open for anyone to win.
Wozniaki once again proved she is anything but the best player in the World and it must have the WTA Tour questioning their ranking system.
The picks did not have a good day yesterday with the Wozniaki defeat. Guillermo Garcia-Lopez was another disappointment, but fortunately Federer's easy win over Janko Tipsarevic left me with a small loss on the day and the Djokovic 3-1 set bet still running.
On to Day 7 Picks:
Robin Soderling - 7.5 games vs Leonardo Mayer: Robin Soderling should be very happy with the conditions expected at Roland Garros tomorrow and must be pleased with his draw as he faced Leonard Mayer, a player that has played a lot of tennis over the last 10 days after missing weeks at a time.
Mayer might be ranked outside the top 200, but he is a clay court specialist with his best results coming on the surface. Last season it took Marin Cilic 5 sets to beat him here in Paris.
Mayer also had a solid win over Marcos Baghdatis in the last round but I do wonder if the lack of competitive tennis over the last 6 weeks is going to take a toll on him against Soderling.
They have met once before when Soderling won 3 tight sets in the Davis Cup last season on an indoor hard court. However, the Swede has looked good so far in the tournament and I expect he will come through in straight sets and cover the spread.
Ivan Ljubicic v Fernando Verdasco Over 38.5 games: Both of these men have made relatively smooth progress through to this Round 3 meeting with the winner getting the 'reward' of a likely meeting with Rafael Nadal in Round 4.
Both have big games and could be rewarded by the conditions in Paris this year. The chances for a tie break or 2 are large with the way they can serve, while Fernando Verdasco is prone to mental lapses that costs him sets.
This has a tight 4 setter written all over it, and could finish either way. However, the Over 38.5 games could come into play if the tie breaks occur as I expect they will.
Mardy Fish vs Gilles Simon: Now I could be reading this matchup completely wrong, but I was pleasantly surprised to see Mardy Fish being quoted as the big underdog in this match.
Fish has improved tenfold on clay courts, as his loss of weight has improved his movement around the court. The conditions here also favour Fish's game, with the balls flying through the air and making it much more like a hard court meeting.
Simon will look to make balls all day, but Fish has the edge when it comes to serving and with his groundstrokes. Simon definitely has the better movement and his defensive game could extract mistakes from the Fish racquet.
It is possible this match could be dragged into a 5th set as they are evenly matched, so I cant see why Fish is the big underdog.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic win 3-1 sets @ 3.75 (1 Unit) Still Running from Yesterday
Robin Soderling - 7.5 games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ivan Ljubicic-Fernando Verdasco Over 38.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Mardy Fish @ 2.62 Unibet (2 Units)
FRENCH OPEN: + 14.02 Units (- 0.8 Units Day 6)
Roger Federer once again made easy progress through the draw although I do expect him to be tested a little more by Stanislas Wawrinka in the next round. Federer has quietly gone about his business as everyone spent more time talking about Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic. Federer has won here before and looks more than comfortable with his situation right now.
Another player making calm and easy progress through the draw is David Ferrer, arguably the 3rd most consistent performer on the red dirt this season behind Nadal and Djokovic.
Ferrer looked like he was coming to the end of a very productive career at the end of 2009, but has shown some real talent over the last 18 months as his window for winning a Slam closes rapidly. I dont believe Ferrer will win here, but a match with Federer in the Quarter Final is certain to excite.
The other big news of the day in the Men's draw was the meeting between Djokovic and Juan Martin Del Potro. First the match had to be moved from the Philippe Chatrier court because of the long nature of the first 3 matches on that court- that in turn caused disruptions as fans clamoured to get into the Suzanne Lenglen court to watch the game of the day.
I have stated before that Del Potro should have been in the position Djokovic is in if he had not injured his wrist and been forced to miss almost a year of action. The first 2 sets of the match did not disappoint and I am intrigued if Del Potro can continue his level of play and upset Djokovic.
Personally I am excited to see Del Potro playing the type of tennis he is- I did not expect his best stuff until the Summer hard court swing and the US Open, yet he is well on his way and is going to be a real danger for the rest of the season even if he does not complete the surprise win tomorrow.
The Women's draw saw the Number 1 seed, Caroline Wozniaki, get thumped out of the tournament by a Daniela Hantuchova playing her best tennis. That means the top 2 seeds are out and the draw remains open for anyone to win.
Wozniaki once again proved she is anything but the best player in the World and it must have the WTA Tour questioning their ranking system.
The picks did not have a good day yesterday with the Wozniaki defeat. Guillermo Garcia-Lopez was another disappointment, but fortunately Federer's easy win over Janko Tipsarevic left me with a small loss on the day and the Djokovic 3-1 set bet still running.
On to Day 7 Picks:
Robin Soderling - 7.5 games vs Leonardo Mayer: Robin Soderling should be very happy with the conditions expected at Roland Garros tomorrow and must be pleased with his draw as he faced Leonard Mayer, a player that has played a lot of tennis over the last 10 days after missing weeks at a time.
Mayer might be ranked outside the top 200, but he is a clay court specialist with his best results coming on the surface. Last season it took Marin Cilic 5 sets to beat him here in Paris.
Mayer also had a solid win over Marcos Baghdatis in the last round but I do wonder if the lack of competitive tennis over the last 6 weeks is going to take a toll on him against Soderling.
They have met once before when Soderling won 3 tight sets in the Davis Cup last season on an indoor hard court. However, the Swede has looked good so far in the tournament and I expect he will come through in straight sets and cover the spread.
Ivan Ljubicic v Fernando Verdasco Over 38.5 games: Both of these men have made relatively smooth progress through to this Round 3 meeting with the winner getting the 'reward' of a likely meeting with Rafael Nadal in Round 4.
Both have big games and could be rewarded by the conditions in Paris this year. The chances for a tie break or 2 are large with the way they can serve, while Fernando Verdasco is prone to mental lapses that costs him sets.
This has a tight 4 setter written all over it, and could finish either way. However, the Over 38.5 games could come into play if the tie breaks occur as I expect they will.
Mardy Fish vs Gilles Simon: Now I could be reading this matchup completely wrong, but I was pleasantly surprised to see Mardy Fish being quoted as the big underdog in this match.
Fish has improved tenfold on clay courts, as his loss of weight has improved his movement around the court. The conditions here also favour Fish's game, with the balls flying through the air and making it much more like a hard court meeting.
Simon will look to make balls all day, but Fish has the edge when it comes to serving and with his groundstrokes. Simon definitely has the better movement and his defensive game could extract mistakes from the Fish racquet.
It is possible this match could be dragged into a 5th set as they are evenly matched, so I cant see why Fish is the big underdog.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic win 3-1 sets @ 3.75 (1 Unit) Still Running from Yesterday
Robin Soderling - 7.5 games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ivan Ljubicic-Fernando Verdasco Over 38.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Mardy Fish @ 2.62 Unibet (2 Units)
FRENCH OPEN: + 14.02 Units (- 0.8 Units Day 6)
Tuesday, 24 May 2011
French Open Day 3 Picks
Day 2 was better for the single treble I had flagged up, which gives us the most minimal of profits going into Day 3.
The biggest news of Day 2 actually affected my staking plan for the tournament as Tomas Berdych was beaten by Stephane Robert. Berdych, who reached the Semi Final here last year, was cruising with a 2 set lead but then failed to follow through and was beaten in 5 sets.
It cant have made the Czech player feel much better knowing Robert had never won a 5 set match, never won at a Grand Slam and is currently ranked at Number 140 in the World.
Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer came through difficult looking 1st Round ties with the minimal of fuss, while the likes of Richard Gasquet, Mardy Fish, Gael Monfil, Nikolay Davydenko and Juan Martin Del Potro all encountered few problems.
Hopefully the tournament will heat up as the week progresses as there are some cracking potential matches beginning to take shape.
Now on to the Day 3 picks:
Robin Soderling - 9.5 games vs Benjamin Becker: Over the last couple of years, Soderling has enjoyed some fine success at Roland Garros. This year he will be aided by the balls that move faster and conditions seem to suit him in Paris.
Add to the mixture that Becker has been off the tour for a few weeks and has not played a game on the red dirt this season and Soderling holds a 3-0 lead in the head to head record without losing a set, and the Swede has to be favoured.
The spread is big, but Soderling usually starts serving first and I imagine he may get off to a flyer with Becker being a little match rusty.
Santiago Giraldo vs Pablo Andujar: I am picking the underdog in this game for a couple of reasons. First off, Giraldo has beaten Andujar twice on this surface in their head to head, without losing a set, although both meetings were a few seasons ago and both took place in Giraldo's home country.
Giraldo has also picked up the better results of late on the red dirt, only being beaten by the likes of Rafa Nadal, Robin Soderling and Mardy Fish in recent tournaments, all top 10 players. Andujar had lost 4 in a row before beating Grigor Dimitrov and Julien Benneteau in Nice last week.
However, defeats to Paulo Lorenzi and Alejandro Falla are not such good results and I think Giraldo has the game to make his breakthrough in a Grand Slam after losing in 5 sets here and at Wimbledon last year.
Fernando Verdasco win 3-1 in sets vs Juan Monaco: This is one of the most intriguing match ups on the entire 1st Round in the Men's draw as Fernando Verdasco is having a poor season so far and plays against a man he has struggled against in the past.
Verdasco may not have had the kind of year we have come to expect after he reached the Australian Open Semi Final in 2009, but I have to admit he looked something close to his best in the first 2 sets against Robin Soderling in Rome a couple of weeks ago. He blew 3 match points in that game before losing in 3 sets, but has shown there is still some life in his tennis.
Monaco leads the head to head 7-2, winning 5 of their last 6 meetings, but the last 2 had extenuating circumstances and I can forgive Verdasco those defeats.
The balls are flying quicker through the courts and the conditions should give Verdasco the edge here. Mentally I can see him dropping 1 set in the contest, but I feel the Spaniard will come through in 4 sets against an opponent that he can outhit on a court with faster conditions as he did in Madrid 2 years ago.
My Picks: Robin Soderling - 9.5 games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (3 Units)
Santiago Giraldo win @ 2.05 Canbet (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco win 3-1 @ 4.0 Bet365 (1 Unit)
French Open Record: + 0.04 Units
The biggest news of Day 2 actually affected my staking plan for the tournament as Tomas Berdych was beaten by Stephane Robert. Berdych, who reached the Semi Final here last year, was cruising with a 2 set lead but then failed to follow through and was beaten in 5 sets.
It cant have made the Czech player feel much better knowing Robert had never won a 5 set match, never won at a Grand Slam and is currently ranked at Number 140 in the World.
Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer came through difficult looking 1st Round ties with the minimal of fuss, while the likes of Richard Gasquet, Mardy Fish, Gael Monfil, Nikolay Davydenko and Juan Martin Del Potro all encountered few problems.
Hopefully the tournament will heat up as the week progresses as there are some cracking potential matches beginning to take shape.
Now on to the Day 3 picks:
Robin Soderling - 9.5 games vs Benjamin Becker: Over the last couple of years, Soderling has enjoyed some fine success at Roland Garros. This year he will be aided by the balls that move faster and conditions seem to suit him in Paris.
Add to the mixture that Becker has been off the tour for a few weeks and has not played a game on the red dirt this season and Soderling holds a 3-0 lead in the head to head record without losing a set, and the Swede has to be favoured.
The spread is big, but Soderling usually starts serving first and I imagine he may get off to a flyer with Becker being a little match rusty.
Santiago Giraldo vs Pablo Andujar: I am picking the underdog in this game for a couple of reasons. First off, Giraldo has beaten Andujar twice on this surface in their head to head, without losing a set, although both meetings were a few seasons ago and both took place in Giraldo's home country.
Giraldo has also picked up the better results of late on the red dirt, only being beaten by the likes of Rafa Nadal, Robin Soderling and Mardy Fish in recent tournaments, all top 10 players. Andujar had lost 4 in a row before beating Grigor Dimitrov and Julien Benneteau in Nice last week.
However, defeats to Paulo Lorenzi and Alejandro Falla are not such good results and I think Giraldo has the game to make his breakthrough in a Grand Slam after losing in 5 sets here and at Wimbledon last year.
Fernando Verdasco win 3-1 in sets vs Juan Monaco: This is one of the most intriguing match ups on the entire 1st Round in the Men's draw as Fernando Verdasco is having a poor season so far and plays against a man he has struggled against in the past.
Verdasco may not have had the kind of year we have come to expect after he reached the Australian Open Semi Final in 2009, but I have to admit he looked something close to his best in the first 2 sets against Robin Soderling in Rome a couple of weeks ago. He blew 3 match points in that game before losing in 3 sets, but has shown there is still some life in his tennis.
Monaco leads the head to head 7-2, winning 5 of their last 6 meetings, but the last 2 had extenuating circumstances and I can forgive Verdasco those defeats.
The balls are flying quicker through the courts and the conditions should give Verdasco the edge here. Mentally I can see him dropping 1 set in the contest, but I feel the Spaniard will come through in 4 sets against an opponent that he can outhit on a court with faster conditions as he did in Madrid 2 years ago.
My Picks: Robin Soderling - 9.5 games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (3 Units)
Santiago Giraldo win @ 2.05 Canbet (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco win 3-1 @ 4.0 Bet365 (1 Unit)
French Open Record: + 0.04 Units
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