Cincinnati Masters Tennis Picks 2025 (Friday 15th August)

The scheduling for the end of this tournament has been a little bizarre- the entire Fourth Round of the ATP event was played on Wednesday, but that was not the case for the WTA draw although Ben Shelton's match was carried over from the previous day. His Fourth Round match against Jiri Lehecka will be played on Thursday, while the tournament has once again scheduled a split that was in place earlier in the event and I am not entirely sure why the change for Wednesday?

We still have to become used to the midweek Finals that have been scheduled both here in Cincinnati and the previous Canadian Masters, but all attention will soon turn to the final Grand Slam of the season.

For the first time, the US Open will begin on Sunday, like two of the other three Majors, and that tournament in New York City is now a little over a week away from getting underway.

There were no selections from the tough Thursday schedule, but one of the Quarter Final matches scheduled to be played on Friday has some appeal.

Potentially one more selection will be added, depending on the outcome of the Ben Shelton vs Jiri Lehecka Fourth Round match, but for now this thread will be posted with the one match that has fallen within the parameters set for the season selections in 2025.

The tournament started as poorly as it could have for the Tennis Picks and the momentum from the Canadian Masters was not carried over, but three wins in four have just turned things around.

Keeping that going through the remainder of the tournament and then into the US Open is the ambition.

All four WTA Quarter Finals have ended up being scheduled for Friday, which again feels bizarre, so a couple of extra selections have been added to the day's Picks below.

Carlos Alcaraz - 3.5 games v Andrey Rublev: The conditions in Cincinnati have been particularly tough this year and that has perhaps contributed to what was a slow start to the event for Carlos Alcaraz. The World Number 2 feels much better about his game following the Fourth Round win over Luca Nardi and Carlos Alcaraz described that as his best performance of the tournament so far.

Nothing is wrong with the strong numbers that Carlos Alcaraz has built up on the hard courts and he skipped Toronto in a bid to be ready for this Masters event and then the US Open, which is now fast approaching.

However, the numbers should have led to more titles and the Spaniard has suffered some disappointing defeats in Melbourne, Indian Wells and Miami and he will enter the US Open as a significant second favourite compared with Jannik Sinner.

Winning the title in Cincinnati could change some of the narrative and Alcaraz will be very happy with his level considering he has not been in competitive action since the Wimbledon Final.

He beat Andrey Rublev on his way to another Final in SW19 and it is the World Number 11 who stands in his way here.

Andrey Rublev has to be happy with the wins he has produced at this tournament, but this is going to be a significant test for a player who has just slipped from the standards he has set in his career. The numbers remain pretty impressive, but Rublev has struggled for consistency when it comes to facing those players that are Ranked higher than himself.

He has served well enough in those matches on the hard courts, but over the last twelve months, Andrey Rublev has really had problems getting into the return games, and that has also been the case in consecutive losses to Carlos Alcaraz. Being able to serve well enough to contain the top players on the Tour, while failing to have an impact the other way, puts Rublev under too much pressure and ultimately that has shown up on the scoreboard.

Last week it was Taylor Fritz who was getting the better of Andrey Rublev and there is every chance that Carlos Alcaraz not only wins this match, but covers the line set.

Andrey Rublev does hold a surprising win over Carlos Alcaraz on the clay courts, but the three non-clay matches have all ended in defeat and the World Number 2 would have covered this line set in all of those victories. The higher Ranked player did have one or two issues against the Rublev serve at Wimbledon, but still created 11 Break Points across the four sets played and Carlos Alcaraz should have control of the scoreboard in this Quarter Final.

MY PICKS: Carlos Alcaraz - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Veronika Kudermetova - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)

Coco Gauff - 3.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Weekly Update: 4-6, - 2.28 Units (10 Units Staked, - 22.80% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2020- Felix Cash vs Jason Welborn (August 14th-15th)

Fight Camp has been a huge success for Matchroom Boxing and the third of four events scheduled for August takes place on Friday night.

Thunderstorms are expected in the area which may make the entire outlook of the event feel very different to the first two weeks here, but Eddie Hearn and his team will be aware of the forecast and I have no doubt it will be another strong event.

The card looks a good one from top to bottom and those tuning in on Friday night should get full value for money. This event takes place eight days before the final Fight Camp card which features the big headline names, but I think this one could be as good as any card we see over this month.


There are also other big events taking place this weekend as Matchroom Boxing USA has their first event since the Coronavirus crisis affected sporting events around the world, while Carl Frampton is also in action on Saturday night as he looks to remind everyone that he is still looking for the big fights before he calls time on his career.


In this thread you can read my thoughts on the cards scheduled for the weekend, but I will also be looking forward to the big UFC event on Saturday night which features the completion of the trilogy between Stipe Miocic and Daniel Cormier.

That will be a cracking event too in a weekend which will be much appreciated by combat sports fans.

John Docherty vs Anthony Fox

There is a big future in front of John Docherty and he has been keen to get back inside a Boxing ring and not allow his career to stagnate while the sports world has had to postpone a few scheduled events.

The feeling that another round of Covid-19 could see another lockdown occur meant Docherty was very keen to get over to Fight Camp and at least put a few more Rounds in the bank.

You could be forgiven that is the thinking for John Docherty because he has been bullish in the build up to this bout in talking about ending the fight as early as many others he has had already. Putting a stoppage on the books against Anthony Fox would be making the kind of statement Docherty wants to make, although there is no doubt it is going to be a test to do that.

John Docherty has power as shown by six stoppages in eight wins, but all of those early nights have come in the first couple of Rounds and the two exceptions have both gone the distance.

That is something that may be on the mind at times for Docherty, especially if Anthony Fox is able to show enough to weather the early storm.

The underdog has an 8-12-2 record as professional, but he has only been stopped once before and that was in his first defeat. That did come in the Second Round so there might be some early problems to get through, but Fox has shown he has become someone who not only can test early professional.

Anthony Fox actually comes into this bout off the back of three wins in a row with one of those being against former Commonwealth Champion Luke Blackledge and another being against an unbeaten fighter in Duane Sinclair. Those wins have to be respected, even if the feeling is that John Docherty is a level or two above Fox and it certainly makes me think that the journeyman can at least force the favourite to see the cards.

A late stoppage can't be ruled out with Docherty going into an Eight Rounder for the first time as he steps up his competition, but I think Anthony Fox can show enough grit to reach the cards even in a losing effort.

Shannon Courtenay vs Rachel Ball

A couple of weeks ago Rachel Ball was a huge price to beat Shannon Courtenay, but the money has been piling in on the underdog to the point where we have a pick 'em in this crossroads bout.

Both women have five professional wins on the resume, but Ball did lose a very close fight to Katherina Thanderz when fighting on very short notice. That defeat has been franked by the fact that Thanderz has gone on to win an interim World Title and many felt that Ball did enough to earn the Decision on the night.

It is the kind of performance which suggests she can give Shannon Courtenay all she can handle as the younger fighter takes another step up in class. Her five wins have come against overmatched opponents, but Rachel Ball arrives with the height advantage and knowing she has done at least Eight Rounds on two different occasions while Courtenay has yet to go beyond the Fifth Round.

Shannon Courtenay is the heavier fighter and will be looking to bully Rachel Ball, but the confidence of the latter cannot be ignored. She has been down before which is a concern for the Ball backers, and there hasn't been a stoppage win on her resume so the power may be with the younger fighter.

However, Rachel Ball's better resume can't be ignored here.

I do think Shannon Courtenay could be favoured by the judges in close Rounds, but Rachel Ball should be able to weather some of the early storm and begin to showcase what I believe to be underrated ability. She has shown she can compete at a high level and there is still enough in the price to back Rachel Ball even if it is no longer the kind of upset many felt it might have been when the fight was first put together.

Zelfa Barrett vs Eric Donovan

Fighting for the first time under the Matchroom Boxing Promotion on Friday night is Zelfa Barrett who has openly admitted he dreams of being the next big Manchester Boxing Icon.

The 27 year old has won the English Title and the Commonwealth Title at Super Featherweight and Barrett could be on the brink of a World Title shot if he can win this fight. It will certainly put Zelfa Barrett on the right path by picking up one of the smaller IBF Titles at the weight, while The Flash will want to put on a performance to light up Fight Camp through the Thunder and Lightning that has been forecasted.

He has won four fights in a row since a Majority Decision loss to Ronnie Clark and Zelfa Barrett has momentum behind him.

On Friday night Eric Donovan will be in the opposite corner and the Irishman has plenty of amateur experience while also being unbeaten in the professional ranks. Eric Donovan has twelve fights behind him but at 35 years old there isn't a lot of room for error if he is going to get into a position to challenge for World honours.

There have been displays of power from Eric Donovan in his first twelve fights, but this is a step up in class. I have little doubt that the Irishman will not take a backwards step, but that may suit Zelfa Barrett down to the ground as he looks to showcase his talents and begin to build a swell of support behind him for when the fans are allowed to return to the Arenas.

It would be a surprise if Zelfa Barrett is able to put one shot together to end the fight, but an accumulation of shots can break down Eric Donovan. In the early Rounds I think the amateur successes Donovan has had will give him a chance to make this a competitive fight, but eventually Barrett's power and ability to put shots together will wear down his opponent.

A second half stoppage looks the most likely direction this fight will take and I will look for Zelfa Barrett do to that and announce himself to a wider audience.

Felix Cash vs Jason Welborn

The Middleweight Commonwealth Title is on the line when Felix Cash defends against Jason Welborn and I would be stunned if this is anything but an all action bout.

Felix Cash is the unbeaten Champion who has put twelve wins on the board and he has shown plenty of power with eight stoppages on the record. There are some good wins on the record, but Cash will be the first to note that this is another step up in his career against an opponent who has fought for a World Title.

Jason Welborn has had a long career and eight defeats may suggest he is not someone that should trouble Felix Cash. However, Welborn has plenty of experience and some of his defeats have come against really strong Boxers which can't be ignored.

The fact Welborn has lost back to back fights is a concern as is the fact that both times he has been stopped to the body, but I have no doubt he will get forward and look to make life very uncomfortable for Felix Cash. The underdog can make things rough and dirty which could take Cash out of his comfort zone and Jason Welborn would love for frustrations to lead to mistakes from the younger Champion.

Ultimately I think that Welborn makes it competitive for a while, but Felix Cash may end up being a little too fresh and accurate with his punches. That should see him begin to take over the fight and perhaps come on strong in the second half of the bout.

A body shot may be the key to the outcome and I will look for Cash to just showcase some of his skills early and flash power late to get this one done. I expect a great fight in the main event and I am expecting plenty of big punches to land amongst the expected thunderstorm in this part of the United Kingdom.

Archie Sharp vs Jeff Ofori

For the fourth time Archie Sharp will be defending his European Super Featherweight Title and in this one he takes on someone that he will be familiar with in Jeff Ofori.

The latter is coming down from Light Welterweight to take on this fight, but Jeff Ofori has struggled when he has stepped up in class and was stopped by Ohara Davies in his last fight.

Coming down may mean Ofori can take a little more punishment at this weight, but Archie Sharp puts his punches together and this is largely seen as a tick-a-long fight for him.

The power is coming for Sharp, but I think he will be a little too accurate with his punches which can see him break down an overmatched opponent. Archie Sharp has managed to find the stoppage in two of his last four fights and I think he will show he is levels above his opponent in this one as he finds an early enough stoppage.

Backing this fight to end in the first 7.5 Rounds looks the call here as Sharp looks to move his career forward.

Carl Frampton vs Darren Traynor

It is wasn't for the Covid-19 outbreak Carl Frampton would have been fighting for a World Title in a third different Division and become the first Irish fighter to try and win belts in three classes.

With the long lay off that has had to be dealt with by all, Frampton returns on Saturday with a tune up fight before he heads into bigger fights again.

There is no doubt that Carl Frampton is dropping to domestic level when taking on Darren Traynor who is a late replacement. The Scottish Boxer has been beaten three times in his career and he has been stopped by both Ryan Walsh and James Tennyson inside Five Rounds.

This feels like a big step up for Traynor again and I do think he will only last as long as Frampton allows him to.

Boxing is very much about levels and Frampton has long operated on a different plane to Traynor- he may not be the fighter he was, but Carl Frampton should be able to showcase his talent and put a comfortable win on the board.

Only one of his last nine fights have ended in a stoppage win, but Carl Frampton can put the pressure on early in this one and break down Darren Traynor within the first Five Rounds.

Otto Wallin vs Travis Kauffman

It has been a touch over eleven months since Otto Wallin pushed Tyson Fury all the way and was very close to breaking up the impending Wilder-Fury clash which had been signed off.

On another day a referee may have waved things off as Wallin opened up a cut which needed 47 stitches to close and ever since Fury went on to win the WBC World Title the Swedish Boxer has been calling for a rematch.

He impressed enough to have another opportunity in the United States and the southpaw is a big favourite to see off veteran Travis Kauffman who returns to the ring after a twenty month absence.

The last time Kauffman was in the ring he was being stopped by Luis Ortiz on the Wilder-Fury 1 undercard in December 2018. The veteran will be looking to show there is still something left in the tank, but this feels like a fight in which Wallin will dominate and be able to at least give the fans something to talk about,

Travis Kauffman has lost three times and two of those have come in stoppages- he has also been Knocked Down four times in his last two fights and I do think the time spent away from the ring is not going to be beneficial for him.

Otto Wallin did have an injury which postponed an outing earlier in the year, but he should be fully healthy now. He is perhaps not the biggest punching Heavyweight out there, but I think he will have enough to wear down Travis Kauffman and could get the referee to step in at some point across the Ten Rounder scheduled.

MY PICKS: John Docherty Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Rachel Ball to Win @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Zelfa Barrett to Win Between 7-12 @ 2.87 William Hill (2 Units)

Felix Cash to Win Between 7-12 @ 2.62 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Archie Sharp-Jeff Ofori Under 7.5 Rounds @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Carl Frampton to Win Between 1-5 @ 2.10 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Otto Wallin to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 2.20 Bet365 (2 Units)

Cincinnati Masters Tennis Picks 2019 (August 15th)

A solid set of results on Wednesday have turned this Masters tournament back around as far as the Tennis Picks go, but the Third Round is to be played in full on Thursday which means there is still plenty of work to do to earn a profit from the event.

For the most part the Tennis Picks have performed as I would have expected with very few really bad performances, although one of those did come about on Wednesday when Denis Shapovalov was dismissed very easily by Karen Khachanov.


There are sixteen matches scheduled for Thursday, but I have limited my selections from less than half of those matches. You can see those below.


Ashleigh Barty - 4.5 games v Anett Kontaveit: Out of all the first time Grand Slam Winners and newly crowned Number 1's on the WTA Tour I have to say the one I thought would handle the new expectations the best would have been Ashleigh Barty. Since winning the French Open, the Australian has also won a grass court title, but relatively early losses at Wimbledon and in Toronto last week has just had me wondering about whether Barty is also feeling the pressure of the commitments that come with reaching the pinnacle of her sport.

A strong win over Maria Sharapova in the Second Round in Cincinnati shows that Barty has just had a couple of difficult losses, but nothing that should overly concern her supporters with the beginning of the US Open now in sight. She was very unfortunate to lose to Sofia Kenin last week in Toronto and Ashleigh Barty has been one of the best performers on the hard courts over the last twelve months on the WTA Tour.

The foundation for her success comes from a strong serving department and it is going to be key for Barty in this Third Round match. The first serve is a particular weapon for her and it was a key in helping Barty beat Anett Kontaveit when they met on the hard courts in Miami earlier this year, while the World Number 2 has also been finding a little more out of her return game which has seen her produce a strong 21-4 record on the surface in 2019.

Now I don't want to disrespect Anett Kontaveit who has two solid wins already in Cincinnati and who did work her way through to the Semi Final in Miami before finding Ashleigh Barty a little too hot to handle. Over the last twelve months the Estonian has been a solid, if not spectacular, hard court player but she tends to beat those she is expected to and that saw Kontaveit climb to a career best Number 14 in the World Rankings back in April which followed the run in Miami.

Anett Kontaveit does have a couple of top 10 wins under her belt on the hard courts over the last twelve months. That makes her a potential threat to Ashleigh Barty especially if she is serving well, but I do see in her numbers that Kontaveit does struggle with her return in those matches.

I think that may be the case here and it should mean Barty can keep her under some pressure. It might be the reason she is able to wear Kontaveit down as Barty did against Sharapova and I will back the Australian to find a way to cover what looks to be a big number on paper.


Aryna Sabalenka - 2.5 games v Maria Sakkari: I can count on one hand the number of times I have backed Aryna Sabalenka this season as she tended to be vastly overrated during the early part of the year. That isn't a big surprise considering the hot form the Belarusian showed to end 2018, but Sabalenka was going into a couple of portions of the season when it was going to be hard to play her game with the kind of effectiveness she would like.

It tends to be a different story at this time of the year on the North American hard courts which have historically favoured those players who want to play aggressive tennis. After reaching the Final in San Jose, Sabalenka would have been disappointed with her early defeat in Toronto, but the young player looks to be in fine form through her first couple of wins in Cincinnati.

There is still room for Sabalenka to improve if she is going to have a big impact at the final Grand Slam of the season, especially when it comes to the way she is serving. This should be a really big weapon for her, but Sabalenka does not always play the big points behind that shot as effectively as she would like and that is a concern when facing an average Maria Sakkari who seems to be very good at the most pressurised points in matches.

We saw more of the same from her in the Second Round as she recovered from being a break down in the final set against Petra Kvitova to win the match despite looking like the second best player for large portions of the match. No matter what kind of timeframe you judge her on, Sakkari has some very average hard court numbers, although the Greek player has to be given some credit for the way she has performed over the last month.

In a very small sample of matches Sakkari has shown to be very good when it comes to breaking the serve from the limited chances she has compared with her opponent's conversion rate. It says something that Sakkari is 5-2 in the last month on this surface, but she has earned more break points in less than half of those matches.

This is a dangerous player who continues to win matches when she is being outplayed and Sakkari's mental resilience has to be applauded and also respected. Ultimately it is not sustainable and I do think it is a major reason she is just 14-16 on the hard courts over the last twelve months.

Much will depend on the racquet of Sabalenka in this match despite the superior movement that Sakkari can offer. If Sabalenka is hitting her marks it will be very difficult for Sakkari to stop her and I think the Belarusian is playing the better tennis of the two which all leads to me backing her to win and cover in this Third Round match.


Simona Halep - 2.5 games v Madison Keys: It would be foolish for people to completely ignore the head to head between these players, but I also would not put a lot of stock into those matches considering the last was almost three years ago. I do think Simona Halep would have been less bothered if she had the losing record though and Madison Keys has proven to be someone who can sometimes struggle with the mental aspect of a tennis match and a pressurised situation.

Last week Simona Halep did withdraw mid-match at the tournament in Toronto, but the fact she has taken to the court here should mean she is good to go. In recent years the Romanian has really enjoyed the Cincinnati event and she has reached the Final in three of her last four appearances here although is yet to take the title home.

As a multiple Grand Slam Champion following her success at Wimbledon last month, Simona Halep has to be feeling very confident about her chances of adding to her major titles. The tendon issue has to be a concern when you get into the long, drawn out Grand Slam events, but it is something that Halep has managed before and I think her withdrawal last week was a precaution.

It is unlikely that her tendons will be pushed for too long in this match considering the aggressive approach Madison Keys has. With that in mind I am anticipating short rallies with Keys taking a win or bust attitude that has sometimes seen her fall away in matches.

The American had a good looking win on Wednesday over Daria Kasatkina, but she has been having a poor year on the hard courts which will come as a surprise to most. Her numbers remain solid, but the slip in the points won behind the potent first serve has to be a real worry for Keys who won't want to see Simona Halep find her rhythm on the return and have to beat her on the ground over multiple shots per rally.

We have seen that the Romanian is at her most vulnerable on the hard courts, but she gets enough out of her serve to at least test the Keys return game which can be erratic to say the least. Simona Halep is a quality returner and I think that is going to be a difference maker for her in this Third Round match at a tournament she enjoys.

In their past meetings on the hard courts, Simona Halep has really limited the kind of damage Madison Keys has been able to do behind her serve. If she can get her teeth into the return games here, I would make Halep a slightly more convincing favourite here.


David Goffin - 3.5 games v Adrian Mannarino: It hasn't been that long since David Goffin was actually more than a decent hard court player, but the last twelve months have been difficult for the Belgian. He is just 10-10 on this surface in 2019 and his numbers have been fairly unimpressive from the kind of standards he had set for himself in 2017 and 2018.

Even a deeper look at the last twelve months have shown a player who has moved from a strong hard court player to a fairly average one and it is going to be tough for Goffin to reverse those trends if he can't find some confidence from somewhere. Maybe being back in Cincinnati will help as Goffin reached the Semi Final here in 2018, but an exit before that Round leaves him vulnerable to slipping out of the top 20 of the World Rankings.

The Belgian had lost early in Washington and Montreal prior to the tournament in Cincinnati and Goffin is finding himself under more pressure thanks to a slip in his serving numbers. At least on Thursday he is facing an opponent he has largely gotten the better of and David Goffin has held 86% of his service games played on the hard courts in four previous matches against Adrian Mannarino.

The veteran Frenchman is having a relatively good month on the Tour having won a few matches in Washington, Montreal and now in Cincinnati to rebuild some of the lost confidence he has to have had. A poor season has seen Mannarino slip down to Number 59 in the World Rankings, while he is just 14-20 on the hard courts over the last twelve months.

Like Goffin, Mannarino has a vulnerable serve but an effective return game which makes him dangerous for opponents. It also suggests we could see a few twists and turns in this Third Round match, although Mannarino has struggled to deal with the Goffin serve in their hard court meetings.

That has not been the case the other way around with Mannarino only holding in 64% of his own service games in those matches. He might have a little more success in this one with the confidence that would have come from a few wins on the Tour, but my edge has to be with Goffin even if he is a player I have rarely wanted to back as one that is still a little overrated with the layers.

There is no doubt that this is a big number for him to cover considering the form he has displayed over a number of months, but I expect Goffin to get the better of the serving day and that can lead to a win here.

MY PICKS: Ashleigh Barty - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Aryna Sabalenka - 2.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
David Goffin - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Cincinnati Update: 8-7, + 0.72 Units (30 Units Staked, + 2.40% Yield)

Cincinnati Masters Tennis Picks 2018 (August 15th)

The Masters tournaments that are played in the same week are very busy events and the Cincinnati Masters is no different.

Both the ATP and WTA event in Cincinnati will be playing the entire Second Round on the same day which means there are plenty of matches scheduled for Wednesday.

As is the case in every year, there is some significant chance of seeing rain during the tournament in Cincinnati and so there is a real chance that some of these matches scheduled won't be able to be completed. That isn't very fair to those players who will have to play twice on the same day to try and move through what is a big tournament outside of the Grand Slams and the last chance for the top names to really put some form together before the US Open begins.

There isn't much we can do about the weather, but these are the selections from Wednesday after a mixed Tuesday. It has at least maintained the positive number for the week, but I want to kick on and add to the start in the days ahead.


Pablo Carreno Busta - 2.5 games v Bradley Klahn: The court speed in Cincinnati should be one that is enjoyed by Bradley Klahn and he has shown he can perform by coming through the Qualifiers and also win a First Round match here. This is part of a good month on the US hard courts as Klahn was also able to Qualify for the Canadian Masters event last week and also won a First Round match there which is a huge boost to the World Ranking.

That all means Klahn should be back inside the top 100 of the World Rankings at the beginning of the US Open and the American is heading back towards his peak Ranking which was earned in 2014.

The service numbers will always make Klahn a threat to opponents but he has to find a way to really get something from the return which is more effective than what he has been able to produce so far. In general his return game is not that great, but that has particularly shown up when he has moved up to play main ATP Tour matches and will be a problem when it comes to making real moves up the World Rankings.

You would think that facing a server like Pablo Carreno Busta would give Bradley Klahn more of a chance to get into the return games, but the Spaniard has found some love for the hard courts over the last twelve months. A US Open Semi Finalist and reaching the same stage at the Miami Masters underlines that while Carreno Busta has been very good at protecting his serve on this service with an 83% hold percentage.

That number is significantly better than previous years and it makes Carreno Busta's life a little easier on the hard courts where he has continued to show his decent return game. Carreno Busta is winning almost 39% of points against the serve on the hard courts and I think it will be the return game which allows him to edge past the American player in this one.

I imagine it will be close considering how Klahn can serve, but I think Carreno Busta will find one more break of serve than his opponent and that should be enough to win and cover the number.


Kei Nishikori - 2.5 games v Stan Wawrinka: Both Kei Nishikori and Stan Wawrinka have been returning from injury problems in 2018, but the transition back to the main Tour has been a little smoother for the former. There have been some real signs that Stan Wawrinka is on the way back to the level we all know he can produce, but I do think his game is played with much less margin of error than many which means his consistency could take that much longer than the likes of Nishikori, Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer who have all bounced back from injury in recent years.

Wawrinka did produce a strong win over Diego Sebastian Schwartzman in the First Round in Cincinnati and you would think he would enjoy hitting through this court. He also won a couple of tough matches in Toronto last week before running into Rafael Nadal and Wawrinka was only narrowly beaten in that match, but there is still the question mark about his consistency.

Even the serve has not quite reached the level Wawrinka has produced on the hard courts in recent years, but that side of his game could be aided by the quicker conditions in Cincinnati. The real issue for Wawrinka has been the return game and he he has won just 32% of points against the serve on the hard courts in 2018, while that has translated to a poor break percentage.

Like Pablo Carreno Busta, no one will confuse Kei Nishikori with the big servers on the Tour, and that has to encourage Stan Wawrinka in this one.

However Nishikori has been just about good enough on that side of his game to think he can at least keep Wawrinka under pressure in this one. The key is to make sure he doesn't give Wawrinka the chance to see too many second serves, and that would give Nishikori a chance to get his superior return game going.

There is still some room for improvement for Nishikori too after an up and down 2018 coming back from injury, but he has played well enough on the hard courts to think he edges out his opponent. Nishikori wins almost 40% of points against the serve on this surface and that number is only slightly dented when you remove all the non-ATP main Tour events.

I don't think this will be anything but a competitive match, but I give Kei Nishikori enough of an edge to win this one and move past Stan Wawrinka.


Sloane Stephens - 5.5 games v Tatjana Maria: Twelve months ago Sloane Stephens made a couple of surprising runs in the Canadian and Cincinnati Premier Events after recently returning from a long lay off. Even then not many would have picked the American to go on and win the US Open.

Stephens has had some ups and downs since winning her maiden Grand Slam, but she has become a player who builds momentum within tournaments that can be very hard to stop. She won a big title in Miami earlier in 2018, the second biggest title of her career, and Stephens has since reached the French Open Final as well as the Canadian Premier Event Final last week.

Backing up big weeks can be difficult, but I think Stephens has been given a good chance to make a start when taking on Tatjana Maria in the Second Round. The American has had a few days off from the Sunday Final loss to Simona Halep in Montreal so I am not too worried about fatigue, while Stephens showed she can have two big weeks in a row by winning a Grand Slam title and also playing so well in Canada and Cincinnati in 2017.

Tatjana Maria has come through the Qualifiers and won a First Round match in the main draw which deserves a lot of respect. However that means she has played plenty of tennis in recent days and Maria has not produced strong numbers on the hard courts in 2018.

Those numbers take another decline when you only consider the main draw WTA tournaments she has played on the hard courts and Maria will have to hope Stephens is off her game here. Maria is 1-11 on the hard courts in main draw matches at the WTA level and she would have failed to get within this number in nine of those defeats.

There is no doubt that Stephens can sometimes be hard to trust, especially when it comes to covering these big numbers. However she would have done that in all four wins in Montreal last week and I will back the American to get off to a very strong start in Cincinnati.


Angelique Kerber - 2.5 games v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: The first time Angelique Kerber took to the court following her title win at Wimbledon saw her go down to a defeat to Alize Cornet in Montreal last week. That isn't the best preparation for the US Open and Kerber will need to get the better of an opponent who has given her plenty of trouble in the past if she is going to put some wins together before the last Grand Slam of the 2018 season begins.

Kerber and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova have won both six matches against the other in the past and it was the former who snapped a three match losing run to the Russian when beating her in Miami earlier this year.

Pavlyuchenkova has won a couple of matches on the hard courts in the last ten days which has improved her record to 4-7 on this surface in 2018. However you can't ignore the fact it has been a difficult season for the Russian player who has seen her percentage of points won on the second serve and her returning numbers drop from 2017 to 2018.

That has made it easier for opponents to get on top of her on the hard courts which should be Pavlyuchenkova's favoured surface. The very close defeat to Simona Halep last week has to give her some belief she can play against an opponent on the WTA Tour, but I think Kerber is perhaps going to be able to frustrate for long enough to extract errors even on the quicker Cincinnati surface.

You have to consider that Kerber has not had the best record at Cincinnati and that is despite reaching the Final here two years ago. The quicker conditions can make it tough to defend on this court as Kerber would like, but I think she will bounce back from the loss to Cornet last week and get the better of a player she did beat in Miami a few months ago.

Pavlyuchenkova's own recent record in Cincinnati is nothing to write home about and I will back the Wimbledon Champion to edge through to the Third Round.

MY PICKS: Pablo Carreno Busta - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Sloane Stephens - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Cincinnati Masters Update: 4-2, + 4.56 Units (12 Units Staked, + 38% Yield)

Cincinnati Tennis Picks 2016 (August 15th)

The Olympic Games are in the books as Andy Murray made history by becoming the first player to ever win two Gold Medals in the Singles tournament.

It has kept the momentum behind the World Number 2 who will go into the US Open as the favourite to win the title for a second time as far as I am concerned. This week he has headed over to Cincinnati for the last Masters ahead of the US Open, although I would not be surprised to see Murray decide to pull out of the event before his Second Round match with a lack of rest and completely different court conditions likely to play a part in that decision.

Juan Martin Del Potro added the Silver Medal to the Bronze he won in London four years ago and the only disappointment for him has to be the fact there were no Ranking points on the line. The Argentinian is trying to get back into the top 100 in the World Rankings and he is likely to be given a Wild Card for the US Open which might be the next time we see him.

Watching him this week was fun, but I couldn't help feel that we have been robbed of seeing Del Potro at the very top of the men's game and I think is game would have matched up incredibly well against Novak Djokovic the last few years before the wrist injury. Unfortunately that has really limited what Del Potro can do on his backhand when he formerly could rip winners from both wings, although he should have been given plenty of confidence from his run to the Final in Rio that he can take into the rest of the season.

Monica Puig won the Gold Medal in the women's event, but I am not ready to crown her as the next big star of the WTA Tour over a successful week. No one will ever be able to take that Gold Medal from Puig, but she has shown plenty of inconsistency through the 2016 season to suggest she can back it up the rest of the month, although her big game will make her a danger in the US Open draw.

Most of the big names on the WTA Tour will be playing in Cincinnati this week as final preparations for the US Open are made and that should be a strong tournament.

Last week was a decent one for the picks which have taken another big chunk out of the season totals as I look for a positive season when six weeks ago I was simply looking to limit the losses. Making the right picks for the next few weeks will be key and I have to make sure I am keeping the mind clear and not looking too far ahead.

On Monday we have the start of the First Round matches in Cincinnati although there aren't as many matches scheduled for the day as I imagined. The matches will come thick and fast the rest of the week though and hopefully I can put together another positive week on the Tour.

David Ferrer - 4.5 games v Julien Benneteau: This is going to be the twelfth meeting between Julien Benneteau and David Ferrer on the Tour but the first since they met in Cincinnati two years ago. On that occasion it was Ferrer who came through comfortably enough against the Frenchman, but both look to be on the slide in their career at this moment.

Ferrer has been a feature of the top 10 in the World Rankings in recent years but he no longer occupies one of those spots and a difficult 2016 season, by his own standards, has the Spaniard at Number 17 in the Singles Race. He also suffered a surprising defeat at the Olympic Games when up a set and a break and that is something that has to be a concern for Ferrer as he has been losing serve and leads more regularly these days.

In saying that, I do think Ferrer will get the better of fellow veteran Benneteau who has been trying to recapture his form after a long injury lay off. Benneteau did reach the Quarter Final in Los Cabos last week before running into Feliciano Lopez, but that has been a rare success for him as he looks a little slower around the court.

Benneteau's last five losses in a best of three match have seen him fail to cover this number of games and while Ferrer has struggled, he does tend to cover this number when he does win on the hard courts. His last nine wins on this surface has seen Ferrer go 9-0 if he was asked to cover 4.5 games and I think he has still got enough in the locker to win this match 64, 63 and move into the Second Round.

Nicolas Almagro - 1.5 games v Jared Donaldson: Nicolas Almagro might be back inside the top 50 in the World Rankings but he is heading into a portion of the season that might be unfamiliar to him these days. The Spaniard has gone 5-8 on the hard courts since the 2014 season and even that record has been boosted by Almagro winning two matches in Los Cabos last week before losing a tight Quarter Final.

That is the second consecutive Quarter Final on the hard courts, the other being at the Challenger level, which might give Almagro a boost in confidence as he takes on a young American hope. Jared Donaldson came through the Qualifiers to reach the Second Round in Washington, Third Round in Toronto and First Round last week in Los Cabos, but he is still a little inconsistent and has yet to transfer his form onto the main Tour.

The two upset wins Donaldson had in Toronto will have given him confidence to take on Almagro who is not at the level of a few years ago. However the conditions in Cincinnati should make the Almagro serve more dangerous but he is making his first appearance here in three years and I do think the Spaniard has lost some of his consistency which saw him enter the top 10 of the World Rankings.

Donaldson did upset Nicolas Mahut here last year, but I think he might just struggle to match the serve that Almagro should be able to produce on this court. It will likely need three sets, but I will look for Almagro to use all of his experience to help him past Donaldson and cover this number.

Reilly Opelka + 2.5 games v Jeremy Chardy: He might still be Number 364 in the World Rankings, but Reilly Opelka can make a significant move by the end of the US Open where I would expect him to earn a Wild Card. A run to the Semi Final in Atlanta will have given Opelka plenty of confidence and he is in the Masters main draw in Cincinnati this week.

A Second Round loss to Feliciano Lopez last week in Los Cabos was a closer match than the scoreboard indicated and I think the courts in Cincinnati will suit Opelka's game especially the monster serve he possesses.

I also think Opelka has shown he could potentially be a stronger returner than the likes of John Isner which will give him every chance of big success in the future once the 18 year old fills out the body. At this moment he is still the underdog against Jeremy Chardy, but the Frenchman has been in really poor form in 2016 and two early losses on the hard courts this summer have to be a concern.

In fact Chardy has had five consecutive First Round losses on the hard courts since reaching the Quarter Final in Delray Beach. Four of those losses have come as the favourite and one of those was against another young American with plenty of potential in Taylor Fritz and Chardy is just 5-6 in Cincinnati when you take away one Quarter Final appearance here in 2012.

If Opelka is serving well, I think he will have chances to break in this one and I can really see the upset come off in the First Round. However I will take the games being given to the big serving American to at least keep things competitive in this one against an opponent who has shown in the past he is more than a capable player but Chardy's recent form can't be ignored.

MY PICKS: David Ferrer - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Nicolas Almagro - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Reilly Opelka + 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)

Season 2016: - 8.82 Units (1407 Units Staked, - 0.01% Yield)

Season 2015: - 21.81 Units (1812 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)

Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)

Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)

Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

Weekend Football Picks 2016 (August 13-15)

It has felt like we have been waiting absolutely ages for the Premier League to return to action after a summer filled with big name managerial arrivals as well as the player for whom the biggest transfer fee has ever been paid when Paul Pogba finally signed for Manchester United four years after leaving the club. The £89 million transfer fee might have been eye-watering to the casual person walking down the street, but it is the way football has moved and certainly doesn't look that big when you think a 29 year old Gonzalo Higuain cost £75 million and unproven John Stones was a £50 million pound Manchester City signing.

This does look the most open Premier League title race than we would have seen for many years and even the favourites Manchester City have issues that can be exploited by others. Of course they now have Pep Guardiola in charge, but for all the success he has had at Barcelona and Bayern Munich, going into The Etihad Stadium is a completely different test and certainly more difficult than Guardiola has had at his two previous clubs.

Getting Manchester City into a position to dominate English football and become a real force in the Champions League is the quest for Guardiola over the next three seasons and that has to be the minimum requirement for a manager coming in with the reputation he does.

The other 'big' clubs in the Premier League also have new managers in charge with Jose Mourinho back in the English top flight with Manchester United, the job he has long rumoured to have craved, and Antonio Conte at Chelsea after his fine performance as Italy manager in the European Championships this summer. All three of those clubs are expected to challenge for the title, while the likes of Liverpool may feel Jurgen Klopp is a step ahead having got settled at Anfield and without the distraction of European football as Chelsea do.

That isn't even beginning to talk about three quarters of the top four last season as Champions Leicester City, Tottenham Hotspur and Arsenal will all hope to be amongst the leading contenders. Claudio Ranieri is downplaying Leicester City's chances, but they have kept two out of three of their key players from last season although the key will be how they handle playing Saturday-midweek-Saturday going forward when the Champions League begins.

Both North London clubs will have their backers, but Tottenham Hotspur and Arsenal have not bulked up the squad as their fans may have expected and a couple of injuries could destabilise them as well as tiredness a small squad suffers by the time March rolls around.

Everton fans will be hoping Ronald Koeman can replicate the success he has had with Southampton, while Sunderland will hope David Moyes can continue the fine work Sam Allardyce did before he left to take over as England manager.

I'm all for that appointment by England as Allardyce will play to the strengths of his players without giving two hoots what the media or the fans might want. That could lead to a successful World Cup in two years time, although the England Qualifying Group is tougher than the one they had to negotiate for the Euro 2016 Finals, and by that I mean England winning a Knock Out game for the first time since 20026.

At the bottom of the Premier League, the only team I am really concerned for is Hull City who look in disarray going into the new season after Steve Bruce decided to leave as manager just a few short weeks ago. A lack of investment and a small playing staff puts Hull City as favourites for the drop, but the other two places could be a battle as I am expecting both Middlesbrough and Burnley to perhaps surprise.

Of course both clubs will be there or thereabouts when the relegation places are decided, but the likes of West Brom, Bournemouth, Crystal Palace, Swansea City and Watford might all be going into the season a little nervously.

Let's face it, after last season who knows what to expect from the Premier League except the excitement that will come from a competitive Division in which there isn't a lot to separate a lot of the teams. I am looking forward to the next nine months and am feeling good about where Manchester United are after three pretty dire seasons as Jose Mourinho takes over at the one club he has wanted to manage for many years.


The Copa America and Euro 2016 tournaments this season combined for a small profit of + 1.55 Units and the overall 2015/16 season produced a tiny number too. However I am positive about that for the simple reason that between kick off in August to the end of 2015, the picks actually stood at - 55.93 Units!!!

I couldn't get out of my own way over the first four months of the season and was resigned to a second losing season in a row, but from January through to May things improved drastically and I am looking to keep the winning months going as we move into the new season.

However I have to say I am a little concerned that my last two August Football Picks have been pretty poor with losing records both times and that has caused me to rethink some of my strategy. Opening games can be difficult to predict anyway, but reading too much into opening day results might have clouded my judgment in the last couple of years.

A better start to the 2016/17 season should hopefully mean a return to 'proper' winning ways with the picks but you simply have to do your best and hope things go the way you have anticipated they will.


Hull City v Leicester City Pick: I don't think it will ever be normal to hear Leicester City being described as The Champions and the 2015/16 season will likely be an exception than a situation I expect to be repeated in the coming years. Of course the money in the Premier League means that any club can now challenge for top quality players although it will take something special for Leicester City to defend the title they won last season.

Claudio Ranieri has managed to keep the majority of his key players at the King Power Stadium, but he will be desperate to see the transfer window closed with Riyad Mahrez still in the dressing room. It sounds like Leicester City will get to keep Mahrez, but you can never say never in football and Ranieri will be hoping to beat off potential suiters in the coming weeks.

For now Mahrez will be beginning the season for Leicester City as they visit the KC Stadium against a Hull City that are struggling before a ball has even been kicked.

Hull City have lost their manager Steve Bruce and will be going in with an experienced Number 2 Mike Phelan, but a manager who has yet to be the man making the big decisions. That might present a problem as will the limited squad that hasn't had the investment that a promoted side would have expected, while injuries in defensive areas looks to be a big issue going into the opening game.

There won't be any surprises as to how Leicester City will want to play this game with their pace on the counter and Hull City will look to defend deep with a draw not a bad opening start for them. However Leicester City showed they can get the better of those teams who finished in the bottom half last season with 8 wins on their travels against teams in the bottom 10.

That looks the most likely position for Hull City to finish and The Tigers did lose 9 of their 19 home games at this level two years ago. That was only 'bettered' by Crystal Palace losing 10 home games, and the injuries that Phelan is dealing with is a big concern for Hull City.

I don't think Leicester City will match the 11 away wins they secured in the Premier League last season, but they can get off to a flying start to the defence of their title against a Hull City team that look in disarray. A bit of extra quality that Leicester City have in their squad can make all the difference in what is likely to be a tight game and I fancy The Foxes to earn the three points at odds against.


Everton v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: Roberto Martinez was ultimately a failure as Everton manager as he seemingly took them backwards from the days of David Moyes despite all the rubbish you heard in his first season at the helm. Martinez was fortunate to have had the Moyes defence in the first season, but his own tactics fell short, as they did at Wigan Athletic when taking them down to the Championship, and it was no surprise that when Everton decided to part with the Spaniard.

While Martinez has landed on his feet with the Belgium national job (how?!!!), Everton picked up Ronald Koeman as the new manager and that looks an impressive appointment. With a new owner putting in plenty of cash investment, Koeman does have the support in the transfer market, although the business being conducted won't all be completed before the opening match of the season.

Bringing in Ashley Williams to replace John Stones looks a shrewd move and Koeman's Southampton team had a strong defensive identity while also being very effective going forward. These could be exciting times for Everton fans while the expectation is low, although keeping hold of Romelu Lukaku remains a big challenge. However there is plenty of quality in the squad that underachieved last season, and Koeman's first challenge is to make Goodison Park a tough place for visitors to play again.

Opening up against Tottenham Hotspur should give Koeman plenty of ideas as to where Everton are at the moment as the visitors come in having just fallen short of the Premier League title last season. Finishing below Arsenal was another blow as Tottenham Hotspur faded down the stretch and Mauricio Pochettino has not brought in as many new faces as some may have imagined with Champions League football coming to the club this season.

The fans have to hope that Dele Alli and Harry Kane have recovered from poor showings at the Euro 2016 tournament this summer, but this is a young Tottenham Hotspur team that should once again be challenging at the top of the table. I do think they overachieved last season though and Spurs might slip from where they were a few months ago, while this is a very difficult opening game against a club that will have the fans wanting to get behind the new manager.

Games between Everton and Tottenham Hotspur have been tight in recent years with 4 of the last 9 ending in draws, including both last season, and the other 5 games all decided by single goal margins. While there have been a shortage of goals in recent meetings between the clubs, Ronald Koeman's Southampton had some entertaining games with Tottenham Hotspur and his Saints side actually beat them at White Hart Lane 1-2 in May.

The recent trend between the teams might not have pointed to goals, but both have a few defensive concerns going into this one and both Everton and Tottenham Hotspur have the attacking quality to expose those concerns. Only 1 of the last 6 games between them have featured at least three goals, but I am backing this one to reverse that trend in what could be the best game of the day.


Manchester City v Sunderland Pick: There are a lot of high hopes at Manchester City for the coming season as Pep Guardiola takes over from Manuel Pellegrini but it will take time for his methods to be accepted by the players. In saying that, there is enough quality in the Manchester City squad that should see Guardiola make a solid start to his time at the club and they will be looking for a successful start to take into the Champions League Play Off Qualifiers which will begin following this match.

Guardiola might earn all the attention, but he won't be the only new manager in this match as David Moyes takes charge of Sunderland for the first time.

This does look a good fit for Moyes as he will look to continue the strong work that Sam Allardyce did in his short time as Sunderland manager and the players should be more confident after a strong end to last season. Moyes' time as manager of Manchester United and Real Sociedad might be largely forgettable, but he insists it has helped him develop character and will make him a better manager.

During his time with Everton, Moyes did give Manchester City a lot of problems, but the excitement at The Etihad Stadium might give the players a boost. Some of the talent brought in by Guardiola look like they can make an immediate impact, while Sergio Aguero and Kevin de Bruyne are quality attacking players that can make all the difference even in tight games.

Manchester City did have too much for Sunderland for much of last season and I think they are going to be too good for them top open the new campaign. I don't think the players will be looking to do anything but impress the new manager and I think they will wear down a Sunderland team that might be looking to defend in numbers in the hope of nicking a point.

At this time I think Moyes will be looking at what areas he needs to strengthen before September 1st and I am not sure they have enough goals to stay with Manchester City. Opening games can be difficult to judge, but I will back Manchester City to win by a couple of goals and cover the Asian Handicap.


Bournemouth v Manchester United Pick: This is a big season for both Bournemouth and Manchester United for differing reasons as they are expected to be at opposite ends of the table in May 2017. For Bournemouth it is all about avoiding 'second season syndrome' which has given promoted clubs some real problems over the years as they have to face teams who will be more familiar with the attacking and defending styles they are seeing.

Manchester United have appointed a serial winner like Jose Mourinho in a bid to get back to the pinnacle of English football after what have been three difficult years under David Moyes and Louis Van Gaal. At least they won a trophy last season, but to be so far off the pace in the Premier League was a big disappointment and Manchester United have not finished higher than 4th since winning the title in 2012//13.

Restoring United to the top has meant bringing in four quality players to give Mourinho a new spine on which he can rely. Paul Pogba might not be able to start in this one as he builds fitness, but Eric Bailly, Henrikh Mkhitaryan and Zlatan Ibrahimovic should all start.

Getting up to speed with the Premier League might be their biggest issues, while Mourinho has also admitted it might take time for the players to adjust to his methods after two years under Van Gaal. Improving away from home is also going to be important for Manchester United and winning just 4 of their away games at teams that finished in the bottom half is not good enough.

Even in the win over Leicester City you did see patches where Manchester United struggled to get the best out of their attacking play, but they should have spaces against this Bournemouth side. Eddie Howe is not likely to shift too much from the tactics that kept this club in the Premier League last season but defensively they will need to be better although they will always give it a go at home.

That should make this an entertaining game and I can see both attacks having their successes in this one. The return of Callum Wilson is huge for Bournemouth, while Zlatan Ibrahimovic gets his first taste of the Premier League after scoring the winning goal at Wembley Stadium last Sunday.

Both League games between Bournemouth and Manchester United produced at least three goals last season and I am looking for this one to go the same way in the opening 'Super Sunday' fixture of the season.


Arsenal v Liverpool Pick: The pressure is on Arsene Wenger this season to deliver the Premier League title that the fans have been craving, but once again a lack of investment in the squad has irritated the fanbase. It looks to be the most open Premier League title race in recent years and Arsenal have the benefit of having the most settled of the top teams with no managerial change, but yet the belief has been lost that Wenger can make the right decisions to get Arsenal to a point to win the League.

Injuries and lack of match fitness for players means Arsenal could be short-handed for their opening Premier League game of the weekend and new signings are unlikely to be made in time for Sunday. That means Rob Holding will have to go right into the heart of the Arsenal defence and other young players might have their opportunities to start.

That is not good enough for the Arsenal fans and a slow start to the season would be really hard for Wenger to overcome.

It has been a problem in recent years as Arsenal open up the season at The Emirates Stadium for the fifth season in a row. However they have won 1 of their last 4 opening games and that was against Crystal Palace thanks to a last minute winner. Otherwise a draw with Sunderland and losses to Aston Villa and West Ham United do not exactly inspire confidence.

Looking a little deeper shows Arsenal have lost 3 of their last 5 opening games at The Emirates Stadium and they are facing a Liverpool team that had some of their best performances against the top teams last season. Liverpool only lost 1 of their 8 games in the Premier League against the top four teams and were one of just three teams to beat Leicester City. The Reds won 3 of those 8 games and Jurgen Klopp has a fitter squad to take into the opening game.

Arsenal play one way and that should give Liverpool spaces to exploit against a defence that will be unfamiliar and there is plenty of pace that the away side have in forward areas. Jurgen Klopp will look to pressure from the front and there are some inexperienced players likely to take part who might not be able to handle what they are seeing and Liverpool did play well in their two League games against Arsenal last season.

I think there is every chance Liverpool become the latest team to win at The Emirates Stadium in the opening Arsenal League game here. However I am going to take the option of backing Liverpool with a slight start on the Asian Handicap which will prove to be a half winner if they avoid defeat and they certainly will feel they can do that against a banged up Arsenal squad.


Chelsea v West Ham United Pick: The first Monday Night Football of the new season features a London derby between two teams that have no love lost for one another. Chelsea are coming in off a really poor season, while West Ham United overachieved and are looking to show they are a team trending in a positive direction.

I think it will be a fun game as Antonio Conte gets his first taste of the Premier League as yet another big name manager coming into the English top flight. There are still players he is looking to sign to give the squad the kind of feel he is demanding, but for now Conte has to go in with a similar squad that finished 10th in the Premier League last season.

However they didn't turn into a bad team overnight and Chelsea underachieved the year after winning the Premier League title. There are some really good players still at Stamford Bridge and West Ham United won't be coming here anticipating anything less than a difficult match.

West Ham United will look to play their football and they were a strong team away from home last season. Andy Carroll could be a big player for them this season having shown some form in pre-season and the signing of Andre Ayew gives The Hammers more attacking options, although Slaven Bilic does want more players to come in to boost the squad that has to deal with Europa League football too.

Both games between Chelsea and West Ham United were fun to watch last season and this opening game on Monday Night Football might be another enjoyable affair. It will take Conte a little time to get his defensive shape to his liking and Chelsea looked vulnerable at the back last season. Even if N'Golo Kante gives them great cover in front of the defence, Chelsea might struggle early on to know exactly what Conte wants and West Ham United have the pace and set piece delivery to hurt them.

I also think Chelsea will have their chances in this one against a West Ham United team that are looking for more cover in defensive areas. I wouldn't be surprised if both teams score in this one and there are at least three goals shared out at this one at just under odds against.

MY PICKS: Leicester City @ 2.05 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Everton-Tottenham Hotspur Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Bournemouth-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Liverpool + 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet365 (2 Units)
Chelsea-West Ham United Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Season 2015/16: 133-174-2, + 0.89 Units (669 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield

Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)